Total return of various asset classes (1970 to 2010) and Histogram of total return

[shemozhuben]

股市不是赌场,不是零和游戏,只不过有人愿意做赌徒。
定义:Total return: Price change + Income


Total return of various asset classes (1970 to 2010) :
http://libra-investments.com/Total returns.xls

Attached: Histogram of TSX composite total return from 1825 to 2008. 市场７０％的时间都是正的，３０％是负。

 

[shemozhuben]

DJIA 1900 to 2010(price change):市场长期只会往上涨，就跟房地产一样，因为他们都是资产，而纸币一直在贬值。

 

[shemozhuben]

要BEAT MARKET 很简单，只要在Market表现差的时候买入MARKET，那么AVG COST就会比MARKET 低，LONG TERM Performance 就会超过market. 比如说ＭＡＲＫＥＴ在１０年内作了个Ｕ形，１０年了，年增长才几个％，那是用起点价位的角度来计算的，如果在中间几个点便宜购入，avg cost就有变化，那就可以ＢＥＡＴ　ＭＡＲＫＥＴ了。　为什么大部分ＭＵＴＵＡＬ　ＦＵＮＤ都比不过ＭＡＲＫＥＴ？　因为他们怕上下波动，所以在市场跌的时候卖出,交易频繁，总在追逐热门的投资，管理费等等。　

再次引用Ben Graham的名言：
“”Imagine you are partners in a private business with a man named Mr. Market. Each day, he comes to your office or home and offers to buy your interest in the company or sell you his [the choice is yours]. The catch is, Mr. Market is an emotional wreck. At times, he suffers from excessive highs and at others, suicidal lows. When he is on one of his manic highs, his offering price for the business is high as well, because everything in his world at the time is cheery. His outlook for the company is wonderful, so he is only willing to sell you his stake in the company at a premium. At other times, his mood goes south and all he sees is a dismal future for the company. In fact, he is so concerned, he is willing to sell you his part of the company for far less than it is worth. All the while, the underlying value of the company may not have changed - just Mr. Market's mood. "

 

[cfcplayer]

Very nice comments. Similar to what Mr. Buffet indicated.

However, it's not easy to do the right thing at the right time.

Let's try our best.

要BEAT MARKET 很简单，只要在Market表现差的时候买入MARKET，那么AVG COST就会比MARKET 低，LONG TERM Performance 就会超过market. 比如说ＭＡＲＫＥＴ在１０年内作了个Ｕ形，１０年了，年增长才几个％，那是用起点价位的角度来计算的，如果在中间几个点便宜购入，avg cost就有变化，那就可以ＢＥＡＴ　ＭＡＲＫＥＴ了。　为什么大部分ＭＵＴＵＡＬ　ＦＵＮＤ都比不过ＭＡＲＫＥＴ？　因为他们怕上下波动，所以在市场跌的时候卖出,交易频繁，总在追逐热门的投资，管理费等等。　

再次引用Ben Graham的名言：
“”Imagine you are partners in a private business with a man named Mr. Market. Each day, he comes to your office or home and offers to buy your interest in the company or sell you his [the choice is yours]. The catch is, Mr. Market is an emotional wreck. At times, he suffers from excessive highs and at others, suicidal lows. When he is on one of his manic highs, his offering price for the business is high as well, because everything in his world at the time is cheery. His outlook for the company is wonderful, so he is only willing to sell you his stake in the company at a premium. At other times, his mood goes south and all he sees is a dismal future for the company. In fact, he is so concerned, he is willing to sell you his part of the company for far less than it is worth. All the while, the underlying value of the company may not have changed - just Mr. Market's mood. "