股票买卖探讨： 我的经验和教训，出路在哪里

[陨石]

我做过长线、短线好几年，都没赚到什么钱。主要做法是： 买了， 等它涨；卖了，等它跌。 这是“守株待兔”法。 教训是： 守的不一定是株， 兔， 即使有，也不一定等得到。几年下来， 受着贪婪和恐惧的煎熬，徒给broker交了几千刀的手续费而已。

我一直在想， 其实知道一只股票在近期内会不会涨很难。 即使围绕某个股有极好的消息发布， 等我们这些屁民知道要买入的时候，那只股的价位已经上去了。 相对来讲， 知道某个股票要跌比较容易， 而且一只股票一旦进入跌势， 往往会跌跌不休， 这时候我们会有较大的机会。

看看RIMM今年的走势吧。


如果有人认可我的想法，我再继续。

 

[mugua]

keep going

Yes, yes. Valuable experience. Keep going.

 

[ID100000]

知道要跌有什么用啊? 菜鸟请教.

 

[超级潜水员]

Short

 

[shemozhuben]

The reason why stock price goes up in the long term is all about company's profit and growing profit.
I think you're thinking short selling. Not my cup of tea, I am always long. If I am investing in a real business, I won't speculate that it'll go down hill and make a profit from its misfortune. I think it's easier to tell if a business will prosper in 10-20 years than to tell a business's profit will go down in x amount of time.

 

[陨石]

知道要跌有什么用啊? 菜鸟请教.

现在捐款有裸捐， 结婚有裸婚， 炒股也有裸卖

 

[陨石]

The reason why stock price goes up in the long term is all about company's profit and growing profit.
I think you're thinking short selling. Not my cup of tea, I am always long. If I am investing in a real business, I won't speculate that it'll go down hill and make a profit from its misfortune. I think it's easier to tell if a business will prosper in 10-20 years than to tell a business's profit will go down in x amount of time.

Yes, you are right. I am thinking short selling.

I do not agree with you. Life is short, we cannot wait for 10 - 20 years for a stock to grow.
If you invested Dow Jones Industrial Average in Last 10 Years, you got almost nothing:
http://www.thumbcharts.com/1358/dow-jones-industrial-average-last-10-years

It should be much easier to predict a stock which will be in downstream than predicting a stock will grow, but one person's time and intelligence is limited. If we can have a group to discover, analyze and work together, our task should be much more profitable.

 

[挺傻]

欢迎分享，洗耳恭听。

 

[Smile2010]

Yes, you are right. I am thinking short selling.

Life is short, we cannot wait for 10 - 20 years for a stock to grow.

It should be much easier to predict a stock which will be in downstream than predicting a stock will grow, but one person's intelligence is limited. If we can have a group to discover, analyze and work together, our task should be much more profitable.

看你是老ID， 就顶你一把。

要明白在股市，大多数人永远是分母。给自己一到两年时间，若不能将小资金（5万以下）翻5到10倍，说明你做股票没有这个EDGE。

在股市，做的好的就Follow Market , if market goes your prediction,这就蒙对了。 Best traders always follow market , not predict market .

有人在股市为什么能稳定挣钱？不说都能猜得出，就是一个好的strategy, RISK CONTROL 和Money Management, Win/Loss or reward/risk Ratio is higher than most individual investors.

哎。。。不想打字了。。。。

 

[Smile2010]

Yes, you are right. I am thinking short selling.

I do not agree with you. Life is short, we cannot wait for 10 - 20 years for a stock to grow.
If you invested Dow Jones Industrial Average in Last 10 Years, you got almost nothing:
http://www.thumbcharts.com/1358/dow-jones-industrial-average-last-10-years

It should be much easier to predict a stock which will be in downstream than predicting a stock will grow, but one person's time and intelligence is limited. If we can have a group to discover, analyze and work together, our task should be much more profitable.

在敲几个字：
在股市要做 “Do what you feel confortable 。。。。。"

 

[shemozhuben]

Yes, you are right. I am thinking short selling.

I do not agree with you. Life is short, we cannot wait for 10 - 20 years for a stock to grow.
If you invested Dow Jones Industrial Average in Last 10 Years, you got almost nothing:
http://www.thumbcharts.com/1358/dow-jones-industrial-average-last-10-years

It should be much easier to predict a stock which will be in downstream than predicting a stock will grow, but one person's time and intelligence is limited. If we can have a group to discover, analyze and work together, our task should be much more profitable.

I suppose the chart doesn't include dividend. If dividend was reinvested during the down turn, it won't be 0% after 10 years more likely 7% per year. And the index includes all the good and bad companies listed on the exchange. As investor, I choose what I invested in: Good companies. With careful selected basket of stocks, 10%~12% per year is not unrealistic. With some leverage, 15% is achievable in the long term meaning double every 5 years. But different person got different strategy, if it works in the long term good for you.

Quote:"
在敲几个字：
在股市要做 “Do what you feel confortable 。。。。。"

Exactly, imagine million is at stake..

 

[陨石]

看你是老ID， 就顶你一把。

要明白在股市，大多数人永远是分母。给自己一到两年时间，若不能将小资金（5万以下）翻5到10倍，说明你做股票没有这个EDGE。

在股市，做的好的就Follow Market , if market goes your prediction,这就蒙对了。 Best traders always follow market , not predict market .

有人在股市为什么能稳定挣钱？不说都能猜得出，就是一个好的strategy, RISK CONTROL 和Money Management, Win/Loss or reward/risk Ratio is higher than most individual investors.

哎。。。不想打字了。。。。

听你的口气， 你应该早大发了啊。

我没听说有人在股市稳赚钱， 巴菲特也有做亏的时候。 多伦多那个华人巴菲特更是亏的底掉。

你说的“Follow Market", 你不预测market， 你怎么Follow Market？ 你说说现在的market是要升，还是要降。 如果你不预测你怎么知道要买还是要卖？

 

[Smile2010]

听你的口气， 你应该早大发了啊。

我没听说有人在股市稳赚钱， 巴菲特也有做亏的时候。 多伦多那个华人巴菲特更是亏的底掉 ？

HAHA, 你没听说, 并不等于没有人不能从市场稳定挣钱. 今天喝了一点酒,多和你你掰几句, BUFFET 只有一个,那是一个大坑,是为绝大多数散户准备的. " 多伦多那个华人巴菲特更是亏的底掉"---有本事的人都是从市场挣钱, 不是靠呼悠挣钱. 看见一天到处吹牛的能把握市场拐点的人,怎么就不能用自己的钱来挣钱呢? 中国有句古话--"闷声发财".

从你问的这句话来看,你的思维和绝大多数散户一样.等什么时候你能理解能理解我这句话时,你在谢谢我吧.

 

[会飞的鸟]

顺势而为，跟着市场走，设好止损和止赢

 

[antimachine]

看你是老ID， 就顶你一把。

要明白在股市，大多数人永远是分母。给自己一到两年时间，若不能将小资金（5万以下）翻5到10倍，说明你做股票没有这个EDGE。

在股市，做的好的就Follow Market , if market goes your prediction,这就蒙对了。 Best traders always follow market , not predict market .

有人在股市为什么能稳定挣钱？不说都能猜得出，就是一个好的strategy, RISK CONTROL 和Money Management, Win/Loss or reward/risk Ratio is higher than most individual investors.

哎。。。不想打字了。。。。

You are drunk and better stop typing any more!