China's Rise Isn't Our Demise

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2009-12-15
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By JOSEPH R. BIDEN Jr.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/08/opinion/chinas-rise-isnt-our-demise.html

I FIRST visited China in 1979, a few months after our countries normalized relations. China was just beginning to remake its economy, and I was in the first Senate delegation to witness this evolution. Traveling through the country last month, I could see how much China had changed in 32 years — and yet the debate about its remarkable rise remains familiar.

Then, as now, there were concerns about what a growing China meant to America and the world. Some here and in the region see China’s growth as a threat, entertaining visions of a cold-war-style rivalry or great-power confrontation. Some Chinese worry that our aim in the Asia-Pacific is to contain China’s rise.

I reject these views. We are clear-eyed about concerns like China’s growing military abilities and intentions; that is why we are engaging with the Chinese military to understand and shape their thinking. It is why the president has directed the United States, with our allies, to keep a strong presence in the region. As I told China’s leaders and people, America is a Pacific power and will remain one.

But, I remain convinced that a successful China can make our country more prosperous, not less.

As trade and investment bind us together, we have a stake in each other’s success. On issues from global security to global economic growth, we share common challenges and responsibilities — and we have incentives to work together. That is why our administration has worked to put our relationship on a stable footing. I am convinced, from nearly a dozen hours spent with Vice President Xi Jinping, that China’s leadership agrees.

We often focus on Chinese exports to America, but last year American companies exported more than $100 billion worth of goods and services to China, supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs here. In fact, our exports to China have been growing much faster than our exports to the rest of the world.

The Chinese leaders I met with know their country must shift from an economy driven by exports, investment and heavy industry to one driven more by consumption and services. This includes continued steps to revalue their currency and to provide fair access to their markets. As Americans save more and Chinese buy more, this transition will accelerate, opening opportunities for us.

Even as the United States and China cooperate, we also compete. I strongly believe that the United States can and will flourish from this competition.

First, we need to keep China’s rising economic power in perspective. According to the International Monetary Fund, America’s gross domestic product, almost $15 trillion, is still more than twice as large as China’s; our per-capita G.D.P., above $47,000, is 11 times China’s.

And while there is a lot of talk about China’s “owning” America’s debt, the truth is that Americans own America’s debt. China holds just 8 percent of outstanding Treasury securities. By comparison, Americans hold nearly 70 percent. Our unshakable commitment to honoring our financial obligations is for the sake of Americans, as well as for those overseas. It is why the United States has never defaulted on its obligations and never will.

Maybe more important, the nature of 21st-century competition favors the United States. In the 20th century, we measured a nation’s wealth primarily by its natural resources, its land mass, its population and its army. In the 21st century, the true wealth of a nation is found in the creative minds of its people and their ability to innovate.

As I told students in Chengdu, the United States is hard-wired for innovation. Competition is in the very fabric of our society. It has enabled each generation of Americans to give life to world-changing ideas — from the cotton gin to the airplane, the microchip, the Internet.

We owe our strength to our political and economic system and to the way we educate our children — not merely to accept established orthodoxy but to challenge and improve it. We not only tolerate but celebrate free expression and vigorous debate. The rule of law protects private property, lends predictability to investments, and ensures accountability for poor and wealthy alike. Our universities remain the ultimate destination for the world’s students and scholars. And we welcome immigrants with skill, ambition and the desire to better their lives.

America’s strengths are, for now, China’s weaknesses. In China, I argued that for it to make the transition to an innovation economy, it will have to open its system, not least to human rights. Fundamental rights are universal, and China’s people aspire to them. Liberty unlocks a people’s full potential, while its absence breeds unrest. Open and free societies are best at promoting long-term growth, stability, prosperity and innovation.

We have our own work to do. We need to ensure that any American willing to work can find a good job. We need to keep attracting the world’s top talent. We must continue to invest in the fundamental sources of our strength: education, infrastructure and innovation. But our future is in our own hands. If we take bold steps, there is no reason America won’t emerge stronger than ever.

As vice president, I’ve traveled half a million miles around the world. I always come home feeling the same confidence in our future. Some may warn of America’s demise, but I’m not among them. And let me reassure you: based on my time in China, neither are the Chinese.

Joseph R. Biden Jr. is the vice president of the United States
 
中国的崛起不是美国的终结
http://article.m4.cn/fm/1124760.shtml

1979年中美邦交正常化之后,我第一次访问中国。当时中国刚开始重新改造经济,我是首批上议院代表见证了这场革命。上个月我拜访中国,发现它在32年间变化很大,对于这种惊人的崛起的争辩也很熟悉。

接下来人们也很关注,崛起的中国对美国乃至整个世界意味着什么。我们有些人把中国的崛起看作一种威胁,用冷战时的心态看待对方,恐惧对手的强大。一些中国人担心我们在亚太地区的目标是阻止中国的崛起。

我反对这些观点。我们很清楚中国增长的军事实力和目的,这就是我们为什么与中国军方作战,理解并调整他们的意图。这就是为什么我们的总统指导美国以及我们的联盟在该地区表现强势。我曾跟中国领导人和人民讲,美国是太平洋上的一个大国,并将继续作为大国出现。

但是我仍然相信,一个成功的中国可以让我们国家更加繁荣,而不是相反。

贸易和投资把我们联系在一起,我们彼此利益攸关。从全球安全问题到全球经济增长,我们都有着共同的挑战和责任,并且激励我们共同努力。这就是为什么我们政府把我们的关系建立在一个稳定的基础上。对于这一点,与中国副主席习近平交谈几个小时之后我十分确信,中国领导层也表示同意。

我们经常关注中国对美国的出口,但是去年美国公司向中国出口超过1000亿美元的产品和服务,由此产生数以千计的工作岗位。实际上,我们出口到中国的速度要比出口到世界其他地方发展更快。

在我与中国领导人会见时,他们谈到中国必须转变以出口、投资和重工业带动经济增长方式到以消费和服务带动经济增长方式。这包括人民币升值和提供进入其市场的公平准入。随着美国储蓄的增多,中国购买力的增强,该进程将加快步伐,为我们打开机会。

即使美国跟中国合作,我们也要竞争。我十分相信美国可以这个竞争中胜出。

首先,我们需要继续关注中国增长的经济实力。根据国际货币基金组织数据,美国的GDP大约15万亿,是中国GDP的两倍还多;我们人均GDP大于47,000美元,是中国的11倍。

现在很多人谈论中国”拥有“美国国债的问题,事实上是美国人拥有美国国债。中国仅持有8%的未偿国债。相对来说,美国人持有70%。我们承认拥有金融债务是为了包括海外在内的美国人的利益。这也是为什么美国从来没有债务违约,并且将来也从不会。

也许更为重要的是21世纪的竞争本质对美国有利。20世纪时我们衡量一个国家的财富主要是它的自然资源、国土面积、人口和军队。在21世纪,一个国家的真正财富是有创造性头脑的人和创新能力。

我在成都时告诉学生们,美国是骨子里的创新。竞争在我们社会的每个角落,并已渗透到每代美国人的思想里,从棉花挤压机到飞机,芯片,因特网,他们使这些改变世界的想法赋予生命力。

我们把我们的优势归功于我们的政治,经济以及教育孩子的方式。我们不是让他们接受建立好的正统学说,而是要挑战并改进它。我们让他们自由的表达,充分的讨论。法律的作用在于保护私有财产,引导投资,并且保证穷人跟富人有一样有义务。我们的大学仍是世界学生跟学者的最终目的地。而且我们欢迎有技术,野心和有更好生活心愿的人移民。

美国的优势,现在来说是中国的弱点。我提出中国向创新经济转变的意见,这将打开其体制,不仅仅是人权。基础的权利是统一的,中国人期望拥有这些基础权利。释放一个人全部的潜力,而它的缺失会孕育着不平等。开放和自由的社会是最适合长期发展,稳定,繁荣和创新。

我们也有我们自己的工作要做。我们需要保证任何有工作意愿的美国人可以找到一个好工作。我们需要继续吸引世界上顶级的天才。我们必须继续在教育,基础设施和创新方面投资。但是我们的未来在我们自己的手里。如果我们放开脚步,没有任何原因使美国不会表现的比之前更强盛。

作为副总统,我已经环游地球超过50万公里,每当我回家的时候总会对我们未来充满同样的信心。有些人可能警告美国已经衰退,但我并不认同这观点。根据我在中国的经历,我会保证美国不会衰退,中国也不会。

本文作者约瑟夫·拜登是美国副总统。
 
But it is OUR demise - one day China will inevitably get into some sort of military conflict with the West, and then we will all be labelled traitors just like the Japanese were during WWII. Then we will either have to leave or enter concentration camps, or worse.
 
中国崛不崛起,美国都会衰落。
真正住在美国才能感觉到,美国制度的太多弊端,在近几年越来越感觉明显。资源环境的保护比不上加拿大,科技艺术创新探索的进度赶不上欧洲。政治腐败,贫富分化极其悬殊,民众各逐己利,党派斗争一片乱哄哄。。。金融危机绝对不是偶然,是以华尔街为主导的利欲熏心的心态影响下长久以来社会问题的集中暴露。。。
 
中国崛不崛起,美国都会衰落。
资源环境的保护比不上加拿大,科技艺术创新探索的进度赶不上欧洲。

This is not very true.
 
中国崛不崛起,美国都会衰落。
真正住在美国才能感觉到,美国制度的太多弊端,在近几年越来越感觉明显。资源环境的保护比不上加拿大,科技艺术创新探索的进度赶不上欧洲。政治腐败,贫富分化极其悬殊,民众各逐己利,党派斗争一片乱哄哄。。。金融危机绝对不是偶然,是以华尔街为主导的利欲熏心的心态影响下长久以来社会问题的集中暴露。。。

看怎么说了。
如果是相对于中国的“崛起”速度,把美国的低速发展叫“衰落”,说得过去。

如果把“崛起”理解为一种所达到的状态(而不是过程),那还有个时间效应问题。至少我们这一辈、以及下一辈,是看不到这种“崛起”的。
套用LS的话,美国是多么地强大,只有“真正住在美国才能感觉到”。

其实,我倒觉得拜顿说得还算比较实在。特别同意他的这句话:
“America’s strengths are, for now, China’s weaknesses.”
 
I do not agree. The entire western world is in decline, and in the past 10 years especially I can acutely feel what 小孩 is referring to. In fact, Canada is not better than the US at all. Within the next generation, I predict that Europe and North America will be poorer than China. The standard of living in Europe and North American is already falling behind that in the developed regions of Asia like Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore.

Take a look at the case of Japanese immigration to Brazil and Argentina in the 1920s and 1930s - within 2 generations South America, which was on par with US and Canada before WWII, went downhill completely. Now the descendants of these Japanese immigrants are migrating back to Japan. This will be the fate of the Chinese here in North America.

看怎么说了。
如果是相对于中国的“崛起”速度,把美国的低速发展叫“衰落”,说得过去。

如果把“崛起”理解为一种所达到的状态(而不是过程),那还有个时间效应问题。至少我们这一辈、以及下一辈,是看不到这种“崛起”的。
套用LS的话,美国是多么地强大,只有“真正住在美国才能感觉到”。

其实,我倒觉得拜顿说得还算比较实在。特别同意他的这句话:
“America’s strengths are, for now, China’s weaknesses.”
 
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