十月十二日盘后，十月十二日瞎猜计划

[nepean_01]

十月十二日盘后
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週三美國股市收漲。歐元區最後一個國家斯洛伐克反對黨同意對擴大EFSF規模投贊成票提振市場看多信心。下午美聯儲會議紀要顯示經濟下滑風險加劇，部份理事希望保留QE3選擇，尾盤市場出現小幅跳水行情不過仍保留一定漲幅收盤。截至收盤，道瓊斯指數上漲103點（+0.90%），收於11519點，標準普爾500指數上漲12點（+0.90%），收於1207點，納斯達克綜合指上漲22點（+0.84%），收於2605點。美元指數下跌0.69點（-0.89%）報77.22，原油期貨下跌0.24美元（-0.30%）報收于85.57美元，黃金期貨上漲21.60美元(+1.3%)報收于1682.60美元。

經濟數據方面: MBA抵押貸款申請周比+1.3%，前值為-4.3%。

公司新聞：
據Engadget昨晚報道，一位匿名人士稱，谷歌(GOOG)和三星已經將Ice Cream Sandwich版本的谷歌安卓操作系統發布會改到10月19日香港舉行，屆時將同時發布三星的Nexus Prime智能手機。

微軟(MSFT)已經收購了遊戲開發商Twisted Pixel，而且微軟將不再是Xbox 360遊戲的獨家開發商。交易的條件沒有被公開。

Linked In(LNKD)已經收購一家剛剛成立的搜索引擎公司IndexTank，交易的條件沒有被公開。

路透社報道，三星電子將很快更新其三款因蘋果官司專利敗訴遭德國地方法實施院禁售、禁止進口令的Galaxy智能手機，以便可以繞過這些禁止令，三星設備采用的是谷歌(GOOG)安卓操作系統。

思科(CSCO)和西特裏克斯系統公司(CTXS) 宣布兩家公司結成戰略聯盟共同開發各種幫助客戶簡化以及提升大規模桌面調度的解決方案。通過這一聯盟，思科和西特裏克斯將會為簡化高清晰度真是桌面的發展 以及應用帶來革新，並通過高度安全的希特裏克斯HDX提升用戶的體驗，兩家公司將繼續提升以及建立自己的數據中心解決方案以及雲技術以提升雲服務的發展速 度。

據路透社報道，eBay(EBAY)在本周一次開發商會議上表明計劃將拓展與Facebook的合作關系，同時，eBay還將為購物者推出一項新的網上識別服務，叫做PayPal Access。

大盤近期走勢分析：
標普指數階梯式反彈走勢但在前高遇阻。支撐1175，趨勢阻力在1220。
標普日綫圖：

 

[nepean_01]

大机构交易

 

[nepean_01]

市场看法:
-----------------------------
US markets continued to move up today (Wednesday) as
more good news helped set a stage for stocks to be bid
up. There has been no bad news the last 6 trading days
and the only two news events worth noting are
Thursday’s jobless claims and the scheduled bond
interest payment from Greece on Friday. The market has
been ignoring slightly negative news recently as
sentiment has temporarily shifted to a bullish sentiment
(stocks moving upward = bullish).
The actions of European countries have been interpreted
as solutions by the investors but really offer no real long
term solution. This tells me the market is overly bullish
on what news has come out this week, such as France
and Belgium nationalizing Lexia Bank or encouraging
comments from France and Germany.
The rebound that we originally bought long last Tuesday,
10-4-2011, and sold within a few days, has continued to
move up but it is a rally within a bear market. These are
called counter trend rallies and can be very powerful.
Our approach is to not establish new long positions but
sit on sidelines waiting for swing trades on the short
side to fully develop and turn down before opening a
short. Keywords to remember: start with small
increments.
The Dow30 was up 0.90%, Nasdaq Composite was up 0.84%, the S&P 500 was up 0.98%, and the Russell 2000 was up
1.66%. The CBOE Volatility Index which is a gauge used to measure fear in the market place was down 6.3% and
advancers led decliners 3 to 1.
In earnings news, PEP, Pepsico was up 2.8% Wednesday after announcing earnings that were better than expected. INFY,
Infosys was up 6.9% after posting strong earnings as well.
JPM, JPMorgan, GOOG, Google, and MAT, Mattel are some of the more notable companies scheduled to release earnings
the remainder of this week.

Summary Opinion
------------------------------------
US markets continued to move up today (Wednesday) as more
good news helped set a stage for stocks to be bid up. There has
been no bad news the last 6 trading days and the only two news
events worth noting are Thursday’s jobless claims and the
scheduled bond interest payment from Greece on Friday. Our
approach is to not establish new long positions but sit on
sidelines waiting for swing trades on the short side to fully
develop and turn down before opening a short. Keywords to
remember: start with small increment.

 

[nepean_01]

本人看法:
应该大幅减少多仓，可以开始建空仓了。大盘在1220处的压力太重了。当然现在谁
都觉得可以空了，大盘有时偏偏就不回调，呵呵，我不猜顶!!!!!!!!!! 但我清醒地
减多仓。

 

[nepean_01]

FOMC會議紀要
一些與會者將大規模的資產購買作為幫助經濟進一步復蘇的保證。有人認為大規模資產購買以及擴大美聯儲資產復負債表將會加劇通脹以及通脹預期，而不是刺激經濟。因此，這些人認為只有當通縮的風險加大時才有必要使用大規模購買資產的手段。在議論一項相對成熟的擴大計劃以及另一項大規模資產購買計劃時，幾位與會者指出，目前的制度應該避免一些出色的大公司在其投資組合中過多持有長期國債，因為這會使市場的功能惡化。

與會者建議直接購買或對抵押支持債券進行再投資，而其他一些人則認為這樣的行為毫無作用，充其量只不過是一種信貸分配。對於經濟形式的展望：與會者同意從目前獲得的信息來看，經濟增長仍維持在較低的速度，但衰退的風險並不大。最近的一些數據顯示整體勞動力市場仍非常疲軟，失業率也一直處於上升之中。

對於未來，聯邦公開市場委員會成員們仍預計經濟在未來幾個季度中逐步恢復的速度將加快，但對於失業率的預期則是逐步下降；成員們判斷某些未來將會影響經濟前景的風險，像全球金融市場緊張的局勢將會明顯且對經濟有負面影響，更甚的是，由於經濟恢復速度緩慢，在這些負面影響面前經濟將會變得更脆弱。 對更長階段的通脹預期維持穩定，以及前期價格大漲的能源和大宗商品所造成的影響正在逐步消失，大多數成員預計核心或整體的通脹問題將會得到解決，在接下來的幾個季度內，達到或低於委員們此前在雙重目標中設定的通脹水平。

委員們仍預期未來經濟增長以及通脹情況要比正常情況下的發展要更不確定，通過與銀行界部門的接觸了解到，美國銀行還是非常樂意貸款給優質客戶，但這種貸款需求非常少... 大多數委員預測，隨著通脹預期趨穩，勞工市場以及產品市場緊張程度減緩，工資增長趨緩，以及各公司擁有不太大的市場價格定價權，未來通脹情況將趨向溫和下降。 大多數委員同樣支持委員會關於修改再投資政策的提議，但早前反對將債券上限提高的一名成員同樣反對該項提議，這位成員稱將會對房地產市場產生不利影響。

 

[lazycatcat]

I am into JVA 10K and will share any thoughts ...

JPM will be interesting tomorrow ...

 

[nepean_01]

It is time for AAPL to rest here, I guess.

 

[nepean_01]

FAZ破位了。图不好。

 

[nepean_01]

FAZ破位了。图不好。且卖盘甚重!

 

[nepean_01]

POT图很漂亮，突破了，明天最多还有$1的空间吧。

 

[nepean_01]

LVS有点滞涨的味道。不过MEPL今天很强把整个板块撑住了。

 

[lazycatcat]

FAZ破位了。图不好。且卖盘甚重!

Based on your chart, how low FAZ can go by next Friday (Oct. 21st) ?

 

[nepean_01]

SPX關注1222的壓力點！

 

[nepean_01]

Harry Boxer观点: 大盘有见顶的迹象。

The stock market indices ended higher again, but a late sell-off took them way off the highs and may have signaled the beginning of a pullback as the indices are quite oversold in this zone. There was some late, sharp action on the upside on the ultra-shorts, which could also be indicating that the indices are topping here. We'll see how it goes.

The day started out with a big gap to the upside, and a strong run to new highs at almost 2332 on the Nasdaq 100 and 1214 on the S&P 500. They backed and filled, tried to break out on several occasions on the NDX, but failed to do so despite the fact that the S&P 500 twice made even higher highs at 1218, and then 1220. That probably led to the late sell off. There was a 3-wave corrective move, at the very least, that took the NDX from 2332 down to 2305. The S&P 500 dropped from 1220 to 1207.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 102.55 at 11,518.85. That was 107 points off the high, however, at 11,625. The S&P 500 was up 11.71 at 1207.25, 13 points off its high. The Nasdaq 100 was up 12.26 at 2307.18, down from 2331.

Advance-declines were 4 to 1 positive on the New York Stock Exchange, and 3 to 1 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was almost 5 1/2 to 1 positive on New York, with total volume of less than 1.2 billion shares traded today. Nasdaq traded 1.9 billion shares, and had a little less than a 3 to 1 positive volume ratio.

 

[nepean_01]

DAPAN i s very strong. Short is not easy trade to me even I really want to short more. But I do respect the bullish setiment. I sold FAZ,TZA and other shorts. And switched to FAS, NFLX recently.