安省希望的曙光 (Most Recent Poll puts the Supports for PC @49%, Liberals @ 24%, & NDP @19%)
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As members from across the province gather in Toronto for the Ontario Liberals' annual general meeting this weekend, organizers say the turmoil in the Progressive Conservative party won't affect their discussions on policy and election strategy.
But observers outside the party say what's happening with the PCs can't help but have an impact on the meeting.
Brian Johns, president of the party, says interest in this year's conference is high — approximately 1,500 delegates from associations in 124 ridings across the province are expected at the Westin Harbour Castle Convention Centre.
"This is the most people we've had to an [annual general meeting] in recent memory," said Johns.
He says the meeting's been months in the planning so the interest isn't a byproduct of what's going on with the PCs, as they scramble to replace their leader in the wake of Patrick Brown's ouster due to allegations of sexual misconduct.
"I recognize that it very well may be that, but it's not," Johns told CBC Toronto, pointing out that grassroots party associations have been bringing forward policy suggestions for months.
Who the Tories elect won't change the party's direction, he claims.
Brian Johns, president of the Liberal Party of Ontario, says interest in this weekend's annual general meeting is high, but that has nothing to do with dramatic developments in the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party. (Liberal Party of Ontario)
"Not at all. We don't work like that. We've been operating with a very steady hand and we've had a plan for a very long time," Johns said.
"We knock on doors; we speak to people and hear their voice. And regardless of what the other party does it's not going to stop us."
Premier Kathleen Wynne says she looks forward to addressing the party's rank and file on Saturday night, and claims the tumult in the PC party will not dominate the conversation at the meeting.
"We all know there's lots of political discussion about what's going on in the other party, but that's not core to what we will be talking about this weekend," Wynne said.
But Cristine deClercy, an associate professor of political science at the Western University, says there will be no way delegates will be able to ignore the elephant in the room.
"What's going to happen with the Progressive Conservative leadership race and how then should the Liberal party's campaign team try to respond to or anticipate certain outcomes?" she said in an interview with CBC Toronto.
Cristine deClercy, an associate professor of political scientist at the Western University, says planning election strategy will be difficult for Liberal Party members when the leader of the PC party has yet to be elected. (Western University)
The sudden ouster of the PC leader, and the decision by the party executive to call a snap leadership race, present a lot of uncertainty for the Liberals, says deClercy.
"They're not sure whom they will be fighting. They're not sure if the Tory platform, which has been widely disseminated and carefully crafted, will be the platform the party runs on or not in June," she said.
"They also don't know how this situation will play out for the New Democrats and this necessarily and inevitably will affect how they calculate and how they plan strategy around the election."
Aleem Kanji, vice-president of government relations for Toronto lobbying firm Sutherland Corporation, says it will be difficult for the party to finalize policy this weekend, not knowing where their opposition stands.
Aleem Kanji, of the Toronto lobbying firm Sutherland Corporation, says timing of the Liberals' next budget will be crucial given that the Tories will announce their new leader in March. (Sutherland Corporation)
"The challenge will be not knowing who their opponent will be," says Kanji. "Where will they position themselves? Certainly the landscape could change."
Kanji points out the Liberals will be tabling their budget in March around the same time that the Ontario PCs announce their new leader.
"That will be their blueprint for the election. How that narrative plays out will make this a very interesting time in Ontario politics."
Dropping Brown has helped Ontario Tories: poll
Elliott, a former MPP, was the most popular – 46 per cent of respondents would cast a ballot for a PC party led by her compared to 23 per cent for Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats, 20 per cent for Wynne’s Liberals, and 7 per cent for Mike Schreiner’s Greens.
Rookie PC candidate Mulroney’s Tories were at 41 per cent compared to 25 per cent for Horwath’s NDP, 22 per cent for Wynne’s Liberals, and 8 per cent for Schreiner’s Greens.
Former Toronto city councillor Doug Ford says his first priority in his bid for leadership of Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives is to unite the party. Ford says the party needs to lure Liberal and NDP voters before the June election. (The Canadian Press)
Former Toronto councillor Ford’s PC party was at 39 per cent compared to 24 per cent apiece for Horwath’s NDP and Wynne’s Liberals, and 7 per cent for Schreiner’s Greens.
When no leaders’ names are surveyed, the Tories are at 43 per cent, the Liberals at 28 per cent, the NDP at 20 per cent, and the Greens are at 8 per cent.
Elliott, a former MPP, was the most popular – 46 per cent of respondents would cast a ballot for a PC party led by her compared to 23 per cent for Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats, 20 per cent for Wynne’s Liberals, and 7 per cent for Mike Schreiner’s Greens.
Rookie PC candidate Mulroney’s Tories were at 41 per cent compared to 25 per cent for Horwath’s NDP, 22 per cent for Wynne’s Liberals, and 8 per cent for Schreiner’s Greens.
Former Toronto city councillor Doug Ford says his first priority in his bid for leadership of Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives is to unite the party. Ford says the party needs to lure Liberal and NDP voters before the June election. (The Canadian Press)
Former Toronto councillor Ford’s PC party was at 39 per cent compared to 24 per cent apiece for Horwath’s NDP and Wynne’s Liberals, and 7 per cent for Schreiner’s Greens.
When no leaders’ names are surveyed, the Tories are at 43 per cent, the Liberals at 28 per cent, the NDP at 20 per cent, and the Greens are at 8 per cent.
最后编辑:
- Another hurdle for Brown: the Globe and Mail reports that, according to an affidavit signed in June 2016, Brown was in talks to sell a stake in a restaurant and a crate-load of Aeroplan miles for $375,000 dollars to a man who eventually became a PC candidate while Brown was leader. Brown says that no deal was ever done and that the $375,000 deposit he made one month after the affidavit was signed was purely coincidental. So even if Brown is allowed to run for his old job as leader, he’ll have another controversy to deal with.
- Still, these controversies don’t seem to be hurting the PCs’ electoral prospects. A new poll by Forum Research finds that 49 per cent of Ontario voters would choose the Progressive Conservatives if the election were held today. That’s a seven point jump in support compared to the previous Forum poll, in January. The newly released survey put the Liberals at 24 per cent, the NDP at 19 per cent, and the Green party at 7 per cent. The poll contacted 949 voters and is considered accurate within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- The same poll found that of those who watched TVO’s PC leadership debate on Thursday, 17 per cent thought Christine Elliott won, 16 per cent thought Doug Ford won, 12 per cent thought Caroline Mulroney won, and 8 per cent thought Tanya Granic Allen won (Patrick Brown had not yet entered the race at the time of the debate). Another 26 per cent thought nobody had won, and 21 per cent didn’t know who had won.
Half of Ontarians Now Say they Support the PCs
Ontarians divided about Patrick Brown's entry into the race Toronto, February 17th - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 949 Ontario voters, half (49%) say they would support the PCs if an election were held today, an increase of 8 points in just a few weeks (Jan 25: 42%). The Liberals have the support of about a quarter (24%), similar to the end of January (Jan 25: 27%). The NDP dip slightly in February to 2 in 10 (19%), which is 4 points from where they were in January (Jan 25: 23%). The Greens are supported by just under 1 in 10 (7%), similar to January (Jan 25: 6%). Few are supporting another party (2%). The PCs would claim a massive majority if an election were held today They would secure 93 seats, with the NDP serving as the official opposition with 21. The Liberals would serve as the third party with 10.
Read more at: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2831/brown-enters-race-2018/
Copyright ©Forum Research Inc.
Ontarians divided about Patrick Brown's entry into the race Toronto, February 17th - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 949 Ontario voters, half (49%) say they would support the PCs if an election were held today, an increase of 8 points in just a few weeks (Jan 25: 42%). The Liberals have the support of about a quarter (24%), similar to the end of January (Jan 25: 27%). The NDP dip slightly in February to 2 in 10 (19%), which is 4 points from where they were in January (Jan 25: 23%). The Greens are supported by just under 1 in 10 (7%), similar to January (Jan 25: 6%). Few are supporting another party (2%). The PCs would claim a massive majority if an election were held today They would secure 93 seats, with the NDP serving as the official opposition with 21. The Liberals would serve as the third party with 10.
Read more at: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2831/brown-enters-race-2018/
Copyright ©Forum Research Inc.