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- 2007-01-19
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- 29,042
- 荣誉分数
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- 声望点数
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Latest polls and projections
Updated on June 06, 2018
Poll averages
PC
38.0%
+0.2
NDP
36.5%
+0.3
LIB
19.1%
-0.2
GRN
5.0%
-0.2
OTH
1.4%
-0.1
Seat projections
minority majority
PC73
5486
NDP50
3863
LIB1
11
GRN0
1
OTH0
Probability of winning
87.4%
Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority
3.4%
Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
2.8%
Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority
5.8%
Probability of the NDP winning a majority
Doug Ford's PCs have inched ahead of Andrea Horwath's New Democrats in the polls, but despite the close race in the popular vote the PCs have a better regional distribution of that vote and so are heavily favoured to win more seats. The NDP's forward momentum appears to have stalled. It is no coincidence that the Liberal slide has also slowed, leaving the party with just enough support to be competitive in a handful of ridings.
How has the forecast changed?
Updated on June 06, 2018
Region
Confidence ranges
For nearly two weeks, the PCs and NDP have been locked in a virtual tie, trading the lead back and forth between them. That is to the advantage of the PCs, who have better vote efficiency — thanks to the GTA-Hamilton-Niagara region. They can win more than twice as many seats as the NDP despite a modest PC lead there in the polls. The PCs are also ahead in eastern Ontario and have moved into a close race with the NDP in the southwest. The NDP leads in northern Ontario and in Toronto. The Liberals are strongest in eastern Ontario and Toronto, two regions where they have their best hopes for retaining some seats. The odds of a PC majority with these levels of support are high due to the small number of seats the Liberals can win — if the party ends up with seats in the single digits, it would require the NDP and PCs to be nearly tied in the seat count to produce a minority government. It appears unlikely that both the Liberals and NDP can both out-perform the polls at the same time, as they share the same base of supporters.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/
Updated on June 06, 2018
Poll averages
PC
38.0%
+0.2
NDP
36.5%
+0.3
LIB
19.1%
-0.2
GRN
5.0%
-0.2
OTH
1.4%
-0.1
Seat projections
minority majority
PC73
5486
NDP50
3863
LIB1
11
GRN0
1
OTH0
Probability of winning
87.4%
Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority
3.4%
Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
2.8%
Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority
5.8%
Probability of the NDP winning a majority
Doug Ford's PCs have inched ahead of Andrea Horwath's New Democrats in the polls, but despite the close race in the popular vote the PCs have a better regional distribution of that vote and so are heavily favoured to win more seats. The NDP's forward momentum appears to have stalled. It is no coincidence that the Liberal slide has also slowed, leaving the party with just enough support to be competitive in a handful of ridings.
How has the forecast changed?
Updated on June 06, 2018
Region
Confidence ranges
For nearly two weeks, the PCs and NDP have been locked in a virtual tie, trading the lead back and forth between them. That is to the advantage of the PCs, who have better vote efficiency — thanks to the GTA-Hamilton-Niagara region. They can win more than twice as many seats as the NDP despite a modest PC lead there in the polls. The PCs are also ahead in eastern Ontario and have moved into a close race with the NDP in the southwest. The NDP leads in northern Ontario and in Toronto. The Liberals are strongest in eastern Ontario and Toronto, two regions where they have their best hopes for retaining some seats. The odds of a PC majority with these levels of support are high due to the small number of seats the Liberals can win — if the party ends up with seats in the single digits, it would require the NDP and PCs to be nearly tied in the seat count to produce a minority government. It appears unlikely that both the Liberals and NDP can both out-perform the polls at the same time, as they share the same base of supporters.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/
