这个是查到的资料。看来是不会像原子弹那样爆炸。但是能有多大的把握呢?
不过,爆炸其实不是关键,原本的担心是至少不要出现切尔诺似的污染。否则中国也可能遭殃,我更担心这个。
No, it cannot. No mismanaged nuclear plant, no nuclear plant accident of any kind, can cause a massive nuclear explosion like the blast of a nuclear weapon. To understand this, begin with the idea that fissionable material requires a certain minimum amount (critical mass) of it to be brought together to spontaneously initiate fission, to make it go critical.
In a nuclear weapon, the subcritical masses are driven together and held together for an extremely short interval of time by conventional explosives. The result of driving and holding the critical mass together is that it goes critical and instantly right through that to supercritical. This causes the nuclear chain to build exponentially and the number of fissions per unit of time goes through the roof. Boooooom. Maximum fission burn and big yield.
In a non-bomb situation, subcritical masses of fissionable material are brought together without being blasted together. They achieve criticality and fission begins instantly. Enough fissions will occur to generate enough heat to separate the critical mass to make the whole thing go subcritical. That will be the only goal of the fission reactions. All they want to do is separate the critical mass into something subcritical. Remember that it took a bunch of high explosives to drive the fissionable stuff together and hold it there to make the nuclear bomb. Because fissionable material that is merely brought together to achieve critical mass doesn't have to "blow up" to separate itself into a subcritical mass, nuclear plant accidents won't result in an atomic blast. We're at least safe from that.