NAFTA 谈判结果预测

本帖由 明的凡2017-07-19 发布。版面名称:渥太华华人论坛

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NAFTA谈判前景预测

  1. 前途光明,咱土豆比猴子还精

    3.3%
  2. 前途不妙,土豆根本不是那块料

    36.7%
  3. 不必担惊,美国加国从来就是一条心

    23.3%
  4. 有点害怕,实在不知道土豆敢对川普谈些啥

    10.0%
  5. 还指望啥?我是川普也早被土豆惹毛哒

    23.3%
  6. 莫慌莫慌,保守党国家为重会超越党派不记私利认真帮

    3.3%
  1. ccc

    ccc 难得糊涂 ID:6614 管理成员 VIP

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    By Tim HarperNational Affairs Columnist
    Sun., Aug. 27, 2017

    What do you do if you are the U.S. president and one of your major cities is under water?

    Well, you’d want to start your day promoting a book by a Milwaukee county sheriff who has called Black Lives Matter a hate group, is a known racial profiler and, naturally, is a big Donald Trump supporter. The book foreword was written, of course, by your best bud forever in the media, Sean Hannity.

    Then you would turn your attention to tropical storm Harvey, congratulating yourself on how you saved so many lives — a victory lap even as the water kept rising in Houston and area — but you wouldn’t want to dwell on that, so you would move on to your 2016 electoral success in Missouri, take a shot at the crime rate in Mexico and again vow that it will somehow pay for a border wall, then move on to trade negotiations.

    “We are in the NAFTA (worst trade deal ever made) renegotiation process with Mexico & Canada. Both being very difficult, may have to terminate?”

    Uh-oh. Trump’s thumbs are now typing “Canada” on Sunday mornings.

    Last week, in an infamous stream-of-consciousness meltdown in Phoenix, he said the same thing, telling supporters he would probably end up “terminating the deal at some point,” because “we have been so badly taken advantage of.”

    One can get permanently lost down a rabbit hole trying to make sense of the various tweets and pronouncements from Trump, but the shout-out to Sheriff David Clarke, Trump’s coming rally in Missouri, his ongoing fantasy about a Mexican-financed wall and his continued threats to tear up NAFTA actually do have a common thread.

    They are all campaign preoccupations from a man who has never stopped campaigning and who never really became president.

    The Trump tweet is the cyber-equivalent of the boss walking past the negotiating room banging on a frying pan with a hammer and squeezing an air horn.

    But it is nothing more than that. This is no Art of the Deal. This is the Rant of the Attention-Seeker.

    It’s not about us. It’s all about him.

    Texans, at least those not scrambling atop their homes to save their lives, may want to be reminded that almost 50 per cent of their exports go to their top two trading partners, Mexico and Canada, and they import about 42 per cent of their goods from their NAFTA partners.

    While you’re trying to stay above rising floodwaters, it’s good to know your president is musing about ripping up a trade deal so vital to your state.

    At least a couple of Canadian politicians couldn’t help themselves Sunday.

    “The only thing that needs to be terminated is your presidency,” Hamilton Mayor Fred Eisenberger wrote. “Save yourself and your country. Resign and you will be popular everywhere.”

    NDP leadership candidate Charlie Angus was somewhat more poetic: “A poor player struts/frets his hour on the stage and then is heard no more. A tale told by an idiot full of sound and fury signifying nothing.”

    He moderated his comments later in the day, pushing the government to keep its eye on the ball.

    That’s what it’s doing.

    Adam Austen, a spokesperson for Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland, is becoming quite practised at tossing out the political equivalent of Xanax.

    “We will work with our partners at all levels in the United States to promote Canada-U.S. trade, which supports millions of jobs across the continent,” he said.

    “As we have said before, trade negotiations often have moments of heated rhetoric. Our priorities remain the same, and we will continue to work hard to modernize NAFTA, supporting millions of middle-class jobs.”

    Even if Trump did, in a fit of pique, seek to terminate NAFTA, it’s not certain he could do it.

    Congress, not Trump, is ultimately responsible for giving a thumbs-up or thumbs-down to any renegotiated deal. There is also legislation on the books that enshrines NAFTA and there could be enough pro-trade, had-enough-of-Trump Republicans to decide the 24-year-old legislation overrides any presidential attempt to kick the pact into the ditch.

    All three countries have agreed to fast-track talks, but the first negotiating session has just ended and the second, in Mexico, doesn’t begin until Friday.

    They have to ignore the bully in the corridor banging on his campaign-era frying pan.

    If you’re Canadian and Trump thinks we’re being “difficult,” there’s only one sane reaction: Good. And pack a pair of noise-cancelling headphones.
     
  2. ccc

    ccc 难得糊涂 ID:6614 管理成员 VIP

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    只要特朗普在位,NAFTA肯定停摆。NAFTA不符合他的America First。

    我支持停掉NAFTA。:D
     
  3. New Person

    New Person 资深人士 ID:11416

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    :D:p
     
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  4. 明的凡

    明的凡 知名会员 ID:106409

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    保守党可以从无到有,经过艰苦谈判争得让加拿大经济受益无穷的NAFTA。自由党有本事把一个本来川普都认为只需要微调对加拿大经济至关重要的这么一个协议搞得风雨飘摇甚至可能弄丢。
     
  5. ccc

    ccc 难得糊涂 ID:6614 管理成员 VIP

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    让加拿大经济受益无穷的NAFTA?

    NAFTA让墨西哥经济受益无穷是真的。

    取消NAFTA,对加美无大碍。
     
  6. 明的凡

    明的凡 知名会员 ID:106409

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    你应该去查一下加拿大从美国进口出口的都是些啥还有加拿大制造业在自由党高税收和拖沓繁琐的官僚管制之下还有多大竞争力再说这话。
     
  7. ccc

    ccc 难得糊涂 ID:6614 管理成员 VIP

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    你去看看双边贸易额再说话。

    加关税好了,汽车都是哪里产的?
     
  8. New Person

    New Person 资深人士 ID:11416

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    真是一个JOKE。不要看别的,就看看加拿大的零售业,还有多少加拿大公司?更不要说brain drain了。
     
  9. New Person

    New Person 资深人士 ID:11416

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    TRUMP就像一个怨妇,成天抱怨别人占了他的便宜。那就让他闭关锁国好了。没了美国,全世界还能没了贸易不成?
     
  10. 明的凡

    明的凡 知名会员 ID:106409

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    这才是自己无用怪别人吧?Brain Drain 两大原因,1. 自由党对年收入20万以上"富人"疯狂加税。2. 自由党加税无度借债无度花钱无度造成加元大贬值加民实际收入大幅度降低。
     
  11. 明的凡

    明的凡 知名会员 ID:106409

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    这个怨妇半年创造1百多万工作岗位,股市市值猛增20%以上, 嚣张狂妄的金三胖老老实实,杀人如麻的伊斯兰国风雨飘摇,奥巴马时期几乎从不间断的伊斯兰恐怖袭击浪潮迅速消退。
     
  12. New Person

    New Person 资深人士 ID:11416

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    这才是自己无用怪别人吧。美国软木竞争不过加拿大就要撕毁协议?我说你是加拿大人还是美国人啊?
     
  13. New Person

    New Person 资深人士 ID:11416

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    奥巴马从08年金融海啸到16年股市涨了多少?市场经济有其自己的发展规律,你以为是计划经济啊!
     
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  14. 明的凡

    明的凡 知名会员 ID:106409

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    从危机的谷底自然反弹加上吃大量借债的兴奋剂也算本事?

    奥巴马8年借债10万亿,股价不过从布什时期的高峰14000增加到18000, 30%吧。川普胜选前道琼斯指数已经在18000上下徘徊两年。胜选后半年内升至22000左右。他可没借一分钱。
     
  15. New Person

    New Person 资深人士 ID:11416

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    为何要从布什时期的高峰14000算。 再说一遍:市场经济有其自己的发展规律。
    如果TRUMP能干两届,我敢断言他会赶上一次经济危机。到时候看你把帐算到谁的头上
     

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