中美贸易战:13轮磋商无果 改成“阶段性”方式继续磋;特朗普和刘鹤于1月15日在白宫签署第一阶段经贸协议 (附中英文版本)

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道指上涨400点。
 
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By David J. Lynch
October 11 at 6:16 PM

President Trump said Friday that the United States and China have “agreed in principle” on a preliminary trade deal, marking the first tangible achievement in their 18-month trade war while leaving all of the toughest issues that divide them to future talks.

Speaking in the Oval Office during a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the president said negotiators reached a “substantial phase one” pact, though details were scarce . As part of the initial agreement, the White House agreed not to proceed with plans to increase tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods next week to 30 percent from 25 percent.

“We’ve had nothing but bad news since April. Finally, there’s some sunlight on these trade talks," said Myron Brilliant, executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Trump said the partial accord includes Chinese purchases of $40 billion to $50 billion in U.S. farm products and U.S. tariff concessions, though he has in the past promised trade talk breakthroughs that did not materialize. Friday’s announcement was intended to pave the way for a more complete bargain between Washington and Beijing in the yet-to-be-defined second and third phases. Trump said negotiators had agreed on unspecified provisions governing intellectual property, the opening of China’s financial services market and a ban on using currency as a trade weapon.

But no formal terms were committed to paper, and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative did not make public any additional details. “I don’t think it should be a problem, getting it papered,” the president said, adding that he expected that to occur over the next four weeks.

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could meet to sign the agreement in Chile at an Asian-Pacific leaders summit in mid-November. “Both presidents have to own this thing,” said Craig Allen, president of the U.S.-China Business Council.

News of a potential deal, which capped two days of talks in Washington, cheered Wall Street earlier Friday. Even before the president spoke, the Dow Jones industrial average was up roughly 500 points, or close to 2 percent, amid hints that a partial accord was imminent. The president celebrated the outcome as “one of the biggest deals,” but the lack of specificity in his announcement, and his comment that the partial deal could take weeks to iron out, cooled traders’ optimism. The Dow closed up almost 320 points, or 1.2 percent, to finish at 26,816.59.

“This deal temporarily puts off any further escalation of tensions but does not resolve any of the major underlying sources of frictions between the two countries or mitigate uncertainty about the future of the bilateral economic relationship,” said Eswar Prasad, former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China unit.

Some China hawks also were unimpressed.

“It’s basically some purchases and a bunch of fluff because no one in the administration really wants to go through with the tariffs anyway,” said Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute.

Trump has yet to decide whether to proceed with another planned tariff increase Dec. 15, which would hit popular consumer goods just as his re-election effort swings into high gear.

The president’s decision to accept a multipart process came just three weeks after he flatly rejected the notion of a partial deal, insisting “we’re looking for the big deal.”

The shift comes as Trump faces mounting unrest among core supporters in Midwest farm and manufacturing communities. Voters who have backed his confrontational stance toward China from the start have grown impatient as farm export losses piled up and factory orders softened. His ability to lock up support in states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio could be crucial to his reelection bid.

Business and farm representatives generally welcomed Friday’s announcement, but called it insufficient.

“This agreement seemingly does nothing to address the crippling tariffs farmers currently face. The promise of additional ag purchases is welcome news but details on timeline, price, commodities and many other questions will have to be answered,” said Brian Kuehl, of Farmers For Free Trade.

But Trump supporters glimpsed signs that the president’s aggressive approach is paying off.

“It appears that China is starting to recognize the gravity of the situation, and is finally addressing some long-standing U.S. concerns — such as protection of intellectual property and market access for American farmers,” said Stephen Vaughn, a former administration trade official now at King & Spalding. “At the same time, President Trump and his team are still focused on the major, structural concerns that have driven the Administration’s efforts toward China from the beginning.”

Trump’s Oval Office event was just the latest twist in a negotiating saga that began at the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires last year. Over a steak dinner with Xi, Trump agreed to delay a planned Jan. 1 tariff increase while the two sides sprinted for a deal in 90 days.

That effort ultimately produced multiple negotiating rounds and tariff delays while the president touted prospects for an “epic” agreement. Talks collapsed in May with the administration blaming the Chinese for reneging on a nearly finished document.

After Trump and Xi met this summer at another summit, in Osaka, Japan, hopes for progress were temporarily raised, but they cratered quickly after the U.S. president later grew infuriated by what he saw as China’s failure to implement promised purchase of farm goods. In August, Trump abruptly set in motion plans to tax virtually every Chinese product that enters the United States.

The protracted U.S.-China trade dispute has unnerved investors, disrupted global supply chains and featured the most aggressive use of tariffs by an American president since the 1930s. Trump says his “America First” policy is designed to benefit workers who have suffered from decades of globalization and prevent China from supplanting the United States as the world’s top technology power.

Friday’s announcement leaves the toughest U.S.-China issues for future negotiations, including Trump’s demands for far-reaching structural changes in the state-directed Chinese economy. Robert E. Lighthizer, the president’s chief trade negotiator, wants China to stop forcing U.S. companies to transfer technology to Chinese companies to gain access to the Chinese market. Chinese officials deny doing that and are also resisting U.S. demands to curb subsidies for state enterprises that compete with American companies.

Trump also has yet to announce whether he will extend a license allowing Chinese telecommunications company Huawei to continue buying American parts when it expires Nov. 18.

Trump has vowed to close the persistent U.S. deficit in its trade with China. Yet the United States continues to import far more from China than it sells to Chinese customers, with last year’s gap totaling $419 billion, or 21 percent larger than before Trump took office.

The first steps include an increase in Chinese agricultural purchases, good news for American farmers who have lost billions of dollars in sales during the trade war. China recently began stepping up orders of U.S. farm products as a deal neared. But exports of U.S. soybeans to China fell from $12.2 billion in 2018 to just $3.1 billion last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Trump said the phase one deal would be “tremendous” for farmers. “They’re going to have to buy more land fast and lots of tractors,” he told reporters.
 
新一轮中美经贸高级别磋商在华盛顿结束
2019-10-12 06:27:04 来源: 新华网

  新华社华盛顿10月11日电(记者周效政 韩洁)10月10日至11日,中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理、中美全面经济对话中方牵头人刘鹤与美国贸易代表莱特希泽、财政部长姆努钦在华盛顿举行新一轮中美经贸高级别磋商。双方在两国元首重要共识指导下,就共同关心的经贸问题进行了坦诚、高效、建设性的讨论。双方在农业、知识产权保护、汇率、金融服务、扩大贸易合作、技术转让、争端解决等领域取得实质性进展。双方讨论了后续磋商安排,同意共同朝最终达成协议的方向努力。

  商务部部长钟山,中国人民银行行长易纲,国家发展改革委副主任宁吉喆,中央财办副主任、财政部副部长廖岷,外交部副部长郑泽光,工业和信息化部副部长王志军,中央农办副主任、农业农村部副部长韩俊,商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表王受文参加磋商。
 
美国总统特朗普会见刘鹤
2019-10-12 06:51:25 来源: 新华网


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当地时间10月11日,美国总统特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室会见正在华盛顿进行新一轮中美经贸高级别磋商的中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理、中美全面经济对话中方牵头人刘鹤。 新华社记者 刘杰 摄

  新华社华盛顿10月11日电(记者周效政 高攀)当地时间10月11日,美国总统特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室会见正在华盛顿进行新一轮中美经贸高级别磋商的中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理、中美全面经济对话中方牵头人刘鹤。

  刘鹤首先转达习近平主席致特朗普总统的口信。习近平在口信中指出,近来,中美经贸磋商团队保持沟通,相互释放了善意,受到两国人民和国际社会的欢迎。两国经贸团队已在部分协议磋商上取得进展,双方要妥善解决彼此关切,争取就其他领域的问题取得积极进展。保持中美关系健康稳定发展,对两国对世界都有利。双方要坚持协调、合作、稳定的基调,在相互尊重基础上管控分歧,在互惠互利基础上拓展合作,推动两国关系沿着正确轨道向前发展。

  刘鹤表示,双方在此轮磋商中就共同关心的经贸问题进行了坦诚、高效、建设性的讨论,在农业、知识产权保护、汇率、金融服务、扩大贸易合作、技术转让、争端解决等领域取得实质性进展,讨论了后续磋商安排。处理好中美经贸关系有利于中国,有利于美国,也有利于世界的和平与繁荣。希望双方相向而行,按照两国元首确定的原则和方向,在平等和相互尊重基础上妥善解决彼此的关切,推动两国经贸关系健康稳定向前发展。

  特朗普感谢习近平主席的口信,再次祝贺中华人民共和国成立70周年,并请刘鹤转达他对习近平主席的亲切问候。特朗普表示,美中两国关系发展强劲。我非常尊重中国,非常尊重习近平主席,他是一位伟大的领导人。我很高兴看到,美中经贸磋商取得了实质性的第一阶段成果,这对美中两国和世界都是重大利好。希望双方团队抓紧工作,及早确定第一阶段协议文本,并继续推进后续磋商。美国欢迎中国留学生赴美留学。
 
中美磋商有积极成果,保持淡定继续向前
2019-10-12 08:27:02 来源: 环球时报

  新一轮中美经贸高级别磋商星期五在华盛顿结束,特朗普总统会见了刘鹤副总理。双方第一时间披露的信息显示,这次磋商取得一些进展。双方同意继续相向而行,共同朝最终达成协议的方向努力。

  在这次经贸磋商举行之前,舆论一度不太看好磋商结果。美方在谈判开始前对中方搞新的施压行动,尤其引发了国际上一波悲观分析。然而,谈判结果显然好于人们的预期。这是大形势的逻辑发生作用的结果。

  美国对华贸易战打了一年多了,实在没打出个所以然来。除了中美都蒙受损失,看不出哪一方真有取胜的迹象。谈到贸易战给哪一方带来了什么值得夸耀的成果,人们的大脑里一片空白,所谓的成果找不到坚实可信的证据支撑。

  当然了,尽管支持结束贸易战的人无论在美国还是中国都占大多数,但人们的这种愿望转变为两国真正的相向而行,迅速围绕关键分歧决定性地相互妥协,还是很不容易的。从之前的僵局走向结束贸易战,让社会的理性情绪成为两国舆论场的主角,中间还需要一些跨越。

  这一次双方进行了坦诚、高效、建设性的讨论,在农业、知识产权保护、汇率、金融服务、扩大贸易合作、技术转让、争端解决等领域取得实质性进展,还讨论了后续磋商安排,形势是好的。但是每次两国谈判取得进展时,各自国内都会出现一些批评声音,宣称本国这一方“吃亏”甚至“投降”了。

  这种声音有一部分是幼稚的,还有一部分是出于政治等原因故意的“为批评而批评”。希望无论中方还是美方,都不会受到这种声音的干扰,双方磋商团队在接下来的一段时间里加快谈判,为两国最终达成协议铺平道路。

  结束贸易战意味着取消全部加征的关税,这是一个硬指标。贸易战打得久了,关税越加越多,但是退回到贸易战开始前的关税格局,这一两国经贸磋商的初衷坚决不能忘记。把关税退回到半山腰,意味着贸易战并未结束,只是缓和了。为了推进结束贸易战的这一进程,需要双方按照两国元首之前的共识坚定前进。

  双方商定中国将购买更多美国农产品,那些农产品本来就是中国社会所需要的。但是中方断断续续购买美国农产品,创造不了美国农业借助中国市场加速繁荣的稳定环境。只有双方签署全面经贸协议,包括美国农民在内的两国生意伙伴才能够做长期发展规划,远离动荡感。

  中美为达成最终协议还有大量工作要做。前方地平线上已经可以看到目标,重要的是不要被其他的诱惑干扰,一次次走上岔道,耽误了真正要赶的路。过去的经验表明,那样的干扰经常很活跃,中美双方都需要定力。

  未来仍有不确定性,中国还是要淡定地看待目前进展。谈判越多,“做好自己的事情”越有实质意义。不管眼前的进展是否意味着“转折”,只要我们“做好自己的事情”,无论前方是什么,中国都不会是无奈的随波逐流者。
 
这算让步还是反复无常?至少是退而求其次吧。昨天还自问do I?
前几天还说过已经谈到了这个阶段只能接受完整协议。
 
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The US has agreed to suspend its next tariff hike on Chinese imports after two days of trade talks in Washington.

US President Donald Trump said negotiators had reached a "phase one deal" that would include increased agricultural purchases and address financial services and technology theft.

China's top negotiator Liu He also said he was "happy" with progress.

The US was due to raise tariffs on some Chinese goods to 30% next week.

US share markets, which had risen on reports of a deal, closed higher, but shed some gains in the final minutes of trade as it became clear any agreement was relatively limited.

'A deal, pretty much'
"We've come to a deal, pretty much, subject to getting it written," Mr Trump said, adding that negotiators would begin discussing additional phases as soon as this set of agreements is put to paper.

Mr Trump said he might sign the deal alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping at a United Nations summit in Chile in December.

The US has claimed progress in the past on similar issues, such as increased agricultural purchases and foreign exchange and currency, without the dispute being resolved.

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The US has claimed progress on similar issues in the past

Another planned tariff hike, in December, remains on the table, said Robert Lighthizer, America's top trade negotiator.

Lobby group Farmers for Free Trade said the promise of increased agricultural purchases by China - to between $40bn and $50bn, according to Mr Trump - was welcome, but noted that details were scant.

"While we are pleased that tariffs aren't going up, this agreement seemingly does nothing to address the crippling tariffs farmers currently face," said Brian Kuehl, the group's co-executive director.

"From the very beginning of the trade war, farmers have been promised that their patience would be rewarded. To date, the deal they've been promised has not come."

Long dispute
The US and China have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars worth of each other's goods over the past 15 months, casting a pall over the global economy.

The US wants better protection for US intellectual property, and an end to both cyber theft and the forced transfer of technology to Chinese firms.

It also wants China to reduce industrial subsidies and improve access to Chinese markets for US companies.

This week's talks were the first high-level negotiations in more than two months. They kicked off amid a backdrop of renewed tensions, as the US blacklisted 28 Chinese entities over human rights concerns.

US business groups, which have largely opposed the tariffs, said they hoped the breakthrough would set the stage for a bigger deal that would remove the import tax hikes already imposed.

Mr Trump said the range of issues under discussion warranted breaking up the negotiations into parts.

"It's going to be such a big deal that doing it in sections and phases I think is really better," he said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50020574
 
我掐算,这一轮谈判,中方会做部分让步,比如在农产品的采购上,对等的交换是美国暂停对中国产品30%的进口税。

但核心问题不会让步,现在市场欣喜中,其实就是陷阱。市场又一轮大跌就要拉开序幕。。。。。。。。
 
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The U.S. and China took an initial step to cement a trade agreement that had been derailed, with Washington saying on Friday it would shelve a planned increase in tariffs on goods imported from China, while Beijing would increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products.

The two sides left many details to be worked out in the weeks or months ahead on tough issues including China’s enforcement of intellectual property rules, U.S. access to Chinese markets, Chinese government support for state-owned enterprises, and the fate of U.S. tariffs on nearly $360 billion worth of Chinese imports already in place.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day higher on fresh signs of trade detente, rising 319.92 points, or 1.21%, to 26816.59, but it fell from gains of more than 500 points after details of the tentative agreement came out.

The rough framework hashed out in two days of talks between senior U.S. and Chinese officials in Washington included a Chinese agreement to purchase American farm products totaling $40 billion to $50 billion, President Trump said, without specifying over what time period that would occur.

In exchange, the Trump administration said it would forgo a planned increase in tariffs to 30% from 25% on $250 billion in annual imports from China scheduled to go in place next week.

The tentative truce underwhelmed some international businesses that had been hoping the U.S. and China would finish up a deal that cemented more sweeping structural changes in China’s economy, eliminated additional tariffs scheduled to go into place in December and even rolled back existing tariffs both sides have added to imports from each country.

The planned tariff increases in December on electronics, apparel and other imported consumer goods—a big uncertainty for many U.S. firms—haven’t been shelved so far, Mr. Trump’s trade adviser, Robert Lighthizer, said in the Oval Office.

“If this turns out to be all there is, we could have achieved these results a year ago or more,” said Derek Scissors, a trade expert at the American Enterprise Institute who has advised the Trump administration.

Friday’s announcement potentially works in Beijing’s favor, as it has long sought to negotiate with the U.S. in stages. China’s lead trade negotiator and Vice Premier Liu He has previously said that 40% of U.S. demands could be tackled immediately, while another 40% could be addressed through continued negotiations.

In the lead-up to this round of talks, Beijing sought to narrow the scope of topics that would be discussed, in order to put thornier national-security issues on a separate track. By contrast, President Trump previously said he would rather get a “whole deal” than a limited one.

Still, two days of congenial discussions did amount to a tamping down of tensions that had been increasing since talks broke down in the spring, when the U.S. said Chinese negotiators reneged on agreements that had been hashed out.

The White House said on Friday that Mr. Trump had received a goodwill letter from Chinese President Xi Jinping. “I attach great importance to your concerns on agricultural products,” Mr. Xi said, according to a translation provided by the White House. “Recently, the Chinese companies involved have accelerated purchases of American agricultural products, including soybeans and pork.”

Chinese state media said the two sides made “substantive progress” on a range of issues including agriculture, but didn’t mention potential Chinese purchases.

The two countries said they made progress on intellectual-property protection and rules to prevent currency manipulation, U.S. officials said Friday, though they declined to offer specifics. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin this February claimed to have already reached a currency agreement with China and cited it as sufficient to delay an earlier round of tariffs.

Mr. Trump—facing a slowing U.S. economy and an impeachment investigation in Congress—said the progress could lead to a “substantial phase one deal” that he and Mr. Xi could sign in November at a coming summit of Asia-Pacific leaders.

The U.S. appears to be far from its original goal of getting China to overhaul its economy and is instead saving major structural issues to negotiate later.

The details of the agriculture deal are rough. If China increases purchases of U.S. agricultural goods by $40 billion to $50 billion in a year, that would mark substantial gains. In 2017, before the trade war started, China purchased about $24 billion a year of U.S. food and agricultural exports. If the promised sum is spread out over some longer period of time, it is less significant.

“This announcement of an impending deal hardly resolves any of the major underlying sources of trade and economic frictions between the two countries,” said Eswar Prasad, a China expert and an economist at Cornell University. “And from the perspective of businesses, it does not mitigate uncertainty about the future of the bilateral economic relationship.”

Mr. Trump laid out a schedule for finishing up a first phase of a deal with China in the coming weeks. Under that plan, there would be one or two subsequent phases of negotiations taking place over some unspecified period of time. Rules on safeguarding intellectual property in China are mostly done, but some will be included in phase two, he said. The coercive transfer of foreign companies’ technology in China may span phases two and three.

Farmers applauded the progress with China, which has answered U.S. tariffs with restrictions on American agricultural exports. “The promise of additional ag purchases is welcome news, but details on timeline, price, commodities and many other questions will have to be answered,” said Brian Kuehl, co-executive director of Farmers for Free Trade.

Business groups were more cautious. “We look forward to reviewing the details of this announcement and urge both governments to work toward making additional structural reforms in China and eliminating tariffs,” said the Business Roundtable, a group of large U.S. companies, in a statement.

While some hawkish politicians have warned of making concessions to Beijing, the bulk of Republican lawmakers who oppose tariffs are eager for progress in resolving the trade war. “Any time progress is made, that’s good news,” said Sen. Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa), chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. “A final deal must address the full scope of structural issues.”

Mr. Trump announced the steps after U.S. and Chinese negotiators worked this week in Washington and after the conclusion of a meeting with Mr. Liu in the White House. Mr. Liu said the discussions with senior Trump administration officials were “very good.”

Mr. Lighthizer said one sensitive bargaining chip wasn’t included in this week’s trade discussions: the easing of regulatory restrictions that have put financial pressure on Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies Co.

Earlier this year, the Trump administration put Huawei on an export blacklist after warning that its products could be used to spy on or disrupt telecommunications networks, which the company denies. The move put a barrier between some U.S. chip makers and other companies that sent $11 billion worth of components to Huawei last year.

On Friday, Mr. Lighthizer said Huawei’s fate is being handled as a separate process.

Prior to trade talks, some lawmakers and Washington policy experts worried that U.S. negotiators would agree to loosen restrictions on Huawei in a way that compromised the country’s national security.

On Friday’s developments, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) was pleased that the concessions weren’t included. “The good in President Trump’s ‘deal’ with China is not what’s in it—there isn’t much—but what isn’t in it: any loosening of restrictions on Huawei,” he said in a statement.

Earlier this week, the White House said it would clear licenses to enable some U.S. suppliers to resume doing business with Huawei, according to a person familiar with the decision. Officials at the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security haven’t said when it will begin approving licenses.

Friday’s announcement shows the continuation of a recent detente in the trade war. Mr. Trump, under pressure from businesses and Republicans, previously delayed the October tariff increase by two weeks and began speaking more positively about cooperating with China.

Beijing overnight reiterated a commitment it made earlier this year to open up its financial sector by next year, with a timeline for when it would abolish limitations on foreign ownership in securities and futures in 2020.

Until this week, there had been few signs of progress in the talks since the two sides walked away from a nearly complete deal in May. At that time Messrs. Trump, Lighthizer and Mnuchin accused the Chinese side of backing away from previous commitments at the negotiating table, and Mr. Trump raised tariff levels in May and paved the way for duties on more products.

Messrs. Trump and Xi had sought to get negotiations moving again after a June meeting at the Group of 20 leading economies in Osaka, Japan. After that meeting, Mr. Trump said he had received commitments from China to buy large amounts of U.S. farm products and that he would allow U.S. firms to sell products to Huawei if the cooperation didn’t jeopardize U.S. national security. Yet the talks didn’t immediately improve, and both sides blamed each other for failing to follow through with the Huawei reprieve and agricultural purchases.

In August, China bought $945 million of soybeans, the best month since January 2018, and recently the White House moved to greenlight licenses to do business with Huawei, though the Commerce Department didn’t say it had granted them.

China hawks from both parties have warned against easing pressure on Huawei, which many lawmakers and officials see as a national security threat.

The Trump administration kicked off the conflict in 2017 when Mr. Lighthizer began investigating Chinese economic practices under a U.S. trade law known as Section 301. The probe found evidence of intellectual-property violations, coerced transfer of technology and cyberhacking for business gain, and Mr. Trump responded in March by authorizing tariffs—first on just $50 billion in mostly industrial imports from China.

Since then the tariffs footprint has expanded to include most products imported from China, including $111 billion in mostly consumer items penalized with 15% tariffs on Sept. 1. Beijing has responded with its own retaliatory tariffs on American farm products, cars and other products.

The framework discussed Friday shows how difficult it has been for the U.S. to draw long-term concessions out of Beijing, in particular changes to Chinese industrial policy and its practice of subsidizing state-owned enterprises.

At the same time, the Trump administration is paving the way for more discussions that could lead to a broad deal later. “It’s more setting the train back on the track in some ways and dealing with issues that aren’t so easy to deal with but still need to be addressed eventually,” said Claire Reade, senior counsel at Arnold Porter and former assistant U.S. trade representative for China affairs.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-strikes-upbeat-notes-on-trade-talks-11570804097
 
我掐算,这一轮谈判,中方会做部分让步,比如在农产品的采购上,对等的交换是美国暂停对中国产品30%的进口税。

但核心问题不会让步,现在市场欣喜中,其实就是陷阱。市场又一轮大跌就要拉开序幕。。。。。。。。

对比一下两国媒体的报道就看得出来。

美国官方在大肆渲染。
 
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