保守党胜，席位分布还算有利

[chieftain]

最初由 土鳖虫 发布
虽然我是铁杆的自由党拥护者，但我还是祝贺保守党胜选。但我却对上面各位对今后
政局的预测有不同看法。

首先，保守党124席的脆弱数执政党最需要得到支持和妥协的政治力量是自由党，因
为自由党拥有103席的最大反对党的地位。

保守党面临的挑战是显而易见的。因为NDP非常容易与自由党结盟形成让保守党无所
作为的看守内阁。

其次，安省是这次保守党胜出的关键票区。但安省政府却是自由党执政。如果自由
党要让保守党失信于民，安省很可能成为保守党的滑铁卢。

当然，让保守党无所作为是选民们不希望看到的，也于国家不利。这就要看保守党
如何协调各方，不走偏极端路线，才是上上策。这种策略已经在保守党竞选办发言
人的讲话中有所体现。

保守党出于形式考虑，为了对抗自由党和NDP，可能会和魁党联合。而对于魁党，从这次掀翻自由党政府，自己却丢掉席位的结果中，可能会吸取教训，在关键时刻支持保守党，不会轻易让保守党政府倒台。

但是，保守党和魁党的联合，是我不愿意看到的。

 

[ccc]

Re: Re: Re: 保守党胜，席位分布还算有利

最初由 DickStrong 发布


It will depend on who will be the (Liberal) party leader next time, and it will all depend on Ontario. Remember the first time Ontario introduced the health care premium. Why? Because McGuinty does not want Martin to have a majority government. I think McGuinty will be the next Liberal leader and will give Ontario more candies to win the voters back.

This is only a good guess. Politics in Canada do not work as you thought. Need to do a lot of homework still.

 

[DickStrong]

Re: Re: Re: Re: 保守党胜，席位分布还算有利

最初由 小傻 发布


McGuinty, no way!

Liberal failed this time because of him..His brother was nearly defeated by conservative candidate this time because of him..

Then the next liberal government (if possible) will be a minority again.

 

[chieftain]

Re: Re: 保守党胜，席位分布还算有利

最初由 FriendsFans 发布

保守党主要抢了自由党在安省的票,是因为大家都想换换庄,一旦保守党演砸了,选票自然回到自由党.

对于自由党这次在安省的失败，McGuinty当上省长之后的所做所为，功不可没。

 

[DickStrong]

Re: Re: Re: Re: 保守党胜，席位分布还算有利

最初由 小傻 发布


McGuinty, no way!

Liberal failed this time because of him..

Exactly, he is an anti-Martian liberal.

 

[DickStrong]

Re: Re: Re: 保守党胜，席位分布还算有利

最初由 chieftain 发布


对于自由党这次在安省的失败，McGuinty当上省长之后的所做所为，功不可没。

The whole point is to get rid of Martin.

 

[tyro]

Re: 大家一起关注各个政党的提案

最初由 踏雪无痕 发布
看看到底谁个更有资格得到我们下次的选票。
希望大家一起关注并通告议会中的各项提案。

 

[Obiwan]

Re: Re: Re: 保守党胜，席位分布还算有利

最初由 DickStrong 发布


It will depend on who will be the (Liberal) party leader next time, and it will all depend on Ontario. Remember the first time Ontario introduced the health care premium. Why? Because McGuinty does not want Martin to have a majority government. I think McGuinty will be the next Liberal leader and will give Ontario more candies to win the voters back.

I am not sure McGuinty will emerge to be the next Liberal leader. Now, Martin has stepped down, some of the old Liberal guys may come back to competing for the party leader position, guys such as Brian Tobin, John Manley etc.. and for sure that Belinda Stronach is looking at the vacancy as well.

 

[BigBang]

我不得不佩服新民主党领导人的大智慧：自己作为左派政党却和右派政党联合倒了中偏左政党的阁，最后害得右派政党上台。。。按常理（最早也有不少分析家认为新民主党将被边缘化）新民主党很容易被左派选民抛弃了吧？尤其在右派上台威胁下还可能出现“弃保“效应。

可人家Layton就是有本事：新民主党选票不仅没有减少，而且大大增加。。。。让我也大开眼界。

看来，自由党因腐败丑闻，真的让很多选民一开始就打定主意对它不予考虑，宁可把票投给没有希望战胜保守党的新民主党。。。唯有这才能解释新民主党的成功。

 

[adware]

I don't understand why people will vote for Stronach?

 

[adware]

最初由 BigBang 发布
我不得不佩服自由党领导人的大智慧：自己作为左派政党却和右派政党联合倒了中偏左政党的阁，最后害得右派政党上台。。。按常理（最早也有不少分析家认为新民主党将被边缘化）新民主党很容易被左派选民抛弃了吧？尤其在右派上台威胁下还可能出现“弃保“效应。

i don't understand what are u talking about

 

[小傻]

最初由 adware 发布

i don't understand what are u talking about

He meant NDP not Liberal..

 

[小傻]

Re: Re: Re: Re: 保守党胜，席位分布还算有利

最初由 Obiwan 发布


I am not sure McGuinty will emerge to be the next Liberal leader. Now, Martin has stepped down, some of the old Liberal guys may come back to competing for the party leader position, guys such as Brian Tobin, John Manley etc.. and for sure that Belinda Stronach is looking at the vacancy as well.

John Manley has been waiting for this for two yrs, but I think his chance is slim...

Belinda Stronach, forget it...

 

[adware]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 保守党胜，席位分布还算有利

最初由 小傻 发布


John Manley has been waiting for this for two yrs, but I think his chance is slim...

Belinda Stronach, forget it...

Belinda Stronach is a @#$%^

 

[ccc]

最初由 BigBang 发布
我不得不佩服自由党领导人的大智慧：...

You meant the NDP leader, I guess.