北电正式申请破产保护,股票代号NT已经被纽约证券交易所取消.

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I haven't traded NT for a fairly long time, but seems many people here are interested in NT. Here are my two cents:

1. There are no significant differences between Nortel Networks’ longer term growth and growth in recent years. Annual revenue growth has been −13.9% per year. Total asset growth has been −7.9% per year. Annual E.P.S. growth has been −27.5% per year. Equity growth has been −25.1% per year.
Nortel Networks’ historical income statement growth and balance sheet growth have diverged. Revenue growth has fallen short of asset growth; earnings growth has paralleled equity growth. With all those negative growth, how much uptrend room can we expect?

2. NT is too large and continues to suffer from too much legacy product market exposure to avoid the prevailing challenging carrier capex growth and pricing environment. The revenue disappointment together with higher-than-forecast opex offset solid gross margin to drive disappointing operating margin and the significant EPS shortfall. While Nortel generated a 70 basis points sequential increase in gross margin to 43.7%, operating margin came in at a disappointing 7.6%. On a positive note, Nortel commented that a significant portion of the higher than forecast operating expenditures was driven by sales commissions which are tied to orders as opposed to revenues. Nortel also announced further restructuring initiatives with plans to reduce its workforce by an additional 2,100 employees and to migrate an additional 1,000 jobs to lower cost regions.

3.Nortel offered the following guidance for calendar 2008:
CY08 Revenue: Low single digit growth. Assuming 3% growth, Nortel’s projection would translate to approximately $11.28bln which is lower than the Wall Street Consensus.
CY08 Gross Margin: Approximately 43%
CY08 Operating Margin: A 300 basis point increase, which translates to approximately 6.7% which is lower than Wall Street consensus’s previous 7.7% estimates.

4. One concern of NT is regarding its ability to drive meaningful rev growth while driving further margin gains sufficient to drive meaningful upside to NT’s stock. In short, NT faces numerous challenges in meeting its updated guidance given the ongoing constrained carrier capex environment. In order to drive meaningful EPS upside, NT will need to drive opex as a percentage of rev to levels that NT and few of its peers have ever achieved or sustained.


Overall, I still think NT is a MOMO play not a investment play at all.

这才是专家的评论。

我那都是自己瞎理解的，不对也是正常的。:blowzy:

 

[lostinblue]

Earnings per Share: -1.95

It's beleivable.

 

[LostRabbit]

谈股票谈成了人身攻击。:blowzy:

那可是你开的头,本来好好讨论股票的走势,公司方向,你非要来讨论NT现在员工(或股东)的素质?你说了两遍的所谓一个新加坡的博士在HUAWEI只找了一个写文档的事. 你从我引用RS前的折算价来得出你对我的素质进行攻击?你知道股票技术分析吗?你知道现在的NT和2002的NT有多大差别?现在的NT员工又有大比例的人经历了2002年极端低迷的困境?

北电管理层有很大问题是肯定的,但是员工应该是北电管理层策略失误的牺牲品.很多北电的员工很有经验和水平. NT曾经是OTTAWA最大的雇主,OTTAWA的中国人中曾经或正在NT工作,拥有NT股票的太多了.你有多少资历和经验来评论NT员工的素质? 你的口气中有很强烈的幸灾乐祸的意味.你的生活圈中会碰到很多和NORTEL有关系的,你试试在你的朋友中来说说你对NT员工的素质评论???

NT如果真的倒了,对于很多曾经在中国通讯业界有丰富经历的移民不利.对OTTAWA的房价也不利.

 

[功夫]

认赌服输，老夫亏掉了一栋HOUSE的DEPOSIT，在北电上 :blowzy::blowzy:

 

[ccc]

$6.66 now (only a lucky number)

 

[ChinaFarmer]

认赌服输，老夫亏掉了一栋HOUSE的DEPOSIT，在北电上 :blowzy::blowzy:

What about a down payment for mine?:flaming:

 

[LostRabbit]

NT.TO has broken the historic low on TSX. It touched C$0.645

NT.TO's historic low was 0.67 on Oct 22, 2002

It may trigger new round of sell off from Canadian institutional investors.

It is manipulation, if you don't think NT will go bankruptcy, it is time to accumulate when sell off happens.

NT share price's hope is new investor or re-organization of NT's management team. Short BIDU and accumulate NT, SIRF, QQQQ. The movement of stock price is not all about ER or balance sheet.

 

[sip]

Annual revenue growth has been −13.9% per year. Total asset growth has been −7.9% per year. Annual E.P.S. growth has been −27.5% per year. Equity growth has been −25.1% per year.

Are these numbers "minus", or it just a "dash"?

 

[LostRabbit]

Actually, both Huawei and China Investment Cor. or Chinese fund can get fast money/profit from Nortel. I am so sorry that most of Chinese big fund leaders have no clue and no courage to play this game.

 

[sip]

Actually, both Huawei and China Investment Cor. or Chinese fund can get fast money/profit from Nortel. I am so sorry that most of Chinese big fund leaders have no clue and no courage to play this game.

This is kind of misleading. How? I don't think you invest something by "courage", but by analysis.

 

[LostRabbit]

This is kind of misleading. How? I don't think you invest something by "courage", but by analysis.

Not misleading.

Have you heard of "leveraged buyout"? It is very hard to get approval from US government. However if there is any offer coming from China, market will react very differently.

It doesn't matter if such offer is successful or not, the offer itself will say everything. Buyer could be Huawei, could be ZTE, could be somebody else........ Any Chinese name will trigger bid war. Again, NT is NOT worthless. It is short-sighted and emotional to add all the dirty words on Nortel.

With closing market price, NT has $2.9B market cap.

- $11.2B REVENUE
- 30-40% of US market
- Positive "operating income"!!!!
- 2nd largest CDMA player in the world.
- Strong enterprise division.
- Settled "shareholder lawsuit" (add $800m liability, that's it!!!)

Buyer won't lose anything by adding 40% premium on recent NT price. Some big guys will counter-offer much bigger offer to prevent Chinese ownership.. What will happen to NT share price???

Man, there are lots of tricks here........

Is US$2.9B big money for Chinese????

It is up to you (small investor) to make judgement call. Is the downside room bigger than upside room? II don't encourage shorting/selling NT at this moment. It could go more lower, but that is very small money to earn for shorts and big guys.

Nortel has bunch of problems, which made it one of the most "hated" stock in NA market. However I don't see any bankruptcy risk in the forseeable future.

 

[Anakin]

据报道，加拿大银行受次级信贷危机影响的银行有ＲＢＣ，ＣＩＢＣ，和ＢＯＭ。
U.S. mortgage crisis clips Canadian banks

还有ＴＤ．．．

 

[sip]

Not misleading.

Have you heard of "leveraged buyout"? It is very hard to get approval from US government. However if there is any offer coming from China, market will react very differently.

问题没有你想的那么简单。问题不是华为买起买不起ＮＴ。而是美国和加拿大绝对不会让中国买ＮＴ。连李嘉诚的儿子买亏损一大堆的ＡＣ都没成。如果华为想打败ＮＴ，任何收购ＮＴ的企图都会使ＮＴ变得更值钱。况且ＮＴ有的技术华为现在差不多都有，为什么要收购一个完全重复的公司呢？真想玩一把Hightech 的股票，我觉得Cisco和Broadcom是很好的候选者。

 

[sip]

还有ＴＤ．．．

Oh, really? please provide us more info. thanks!

 

[LostRabbit]

问题没有你想的那么简单。问题不是华为买起买不起ＮＴ。而是美国和加拿大绝对不会让中国买ＮＴ。连李嘉诚的儿子买亏损一大堆的ＡＣ都没成。如果华为想打败ＮＴ，任何收购ＮＴ的企图都会使ＮＴ变得更值钱。况且ＮＴ有的技术华为现在差不多都有，为什么要收购一个完全重复的公司呢？真想玩一把Hightech 的股票，我觉得Cisco和Broadcom是很好的候选者。

I agree with you. Huawei could be much better off to buy other companies. My main points here are NT has reached a point where any buyout offer could be on the table. It is not wise to short/sell NT at this point.

Does trader or "big guy" care final result of buyout? No, a bunch of offer package is good enough to play this game. I won't disclose any more at this point.

Good luck.