精华 canadian banks
- 主题发起人 挺傻
- 开始时间
- 注册
- 2002-04-16
- 消息
- 7,217
- 荣誉分数
- 1,637
- 声望点数
- 393
嗯，从最高最低价格来看，是CM的幅度差别最大，不过对于长期投资我比较侧重于内在价值的分析，PLAY SAFE。在CIBC WRITE OFF了那么多资产之后，短期内我个人认为它的FUNDAMENTAL有了变化，所以我对此持谨慎态度。但是如果下几个季度的ER它能够用盈利水平和增长能力来证明其内在价值的话，长期方向上我才会感觉更安全。
不过长期归长期，短期SWING，侧重的是板块轮动，如果FINANCIAL整个SECTOR，它也没有理由不动，而且往往超卖大的反弹越猛，但是很多是SPECULATION PLAY。进出需要点位，我做不到随时更新，所以怕误导看了帖子的朋友，因此SPECULATION PLAY我是基本不涉及的。
对于美国的银行，MER, C, GS, MS等几个，机会多多。不过因为这个THREAD说的是加拿大的银行，所以我也没提。感谢补充。
不过长期归长期，短期SWING，侧重的是板块轮动，如果FINANCIAL整个SECTOR，它也没有理由不动，而且往往超卖大的反弹越猛，但是很多是SPECULATION PLAY。进出需要点位，我做不到随时更新，所以怕误导看了帖子的朋友，因此SPECULATION PLAY我是基本不涉及的。
对于美国的银行，MER, C, GS, MS等几个，机会多多。不过因为这个THREAD说的是加拿大的银行，所以我也没提。感谢补充。
从现价和最高的差价来看，TD, ROYAL, BNS，甚至BMO升水的幅度并不很大。只有ＣＭ降了４０%以上，但是你似乎对ＣＭ怀谨慎态度。
其实我对美国的几大银行及Fannie Mae ， Freddie Mac 更感兴趣（见下面数据）。他们多数下降了５０%以上。只是买美国股票，还要加上外汇汇率风险。如美元继续贬值，那么即使股票赚了钱，折成加元后还会损失（我有过这类经验）。我想在
１１月美国大选，如果民主党胜出，美元有可能反弹，因为两位候选人都表示进白宫后第一件事是从伊拉克撤兵（每天省１０亿美元以上）。反之，共和党赢了，美元会继续贬值（要在伊拉克接着烧钱）。My two cents.
美国大银行的数据(最低价多是在３月１７日实现的）
name, 52 week high low USD$ at March 20
Citigroup 最高55.55 最低17.99 周四最后价 22.5
JP Morgan 最高53.25 最低36.01 周四最后价 46.85
Morgan Stanley 最高75.50 最低33.56 周四最后价 49.67
Merrill Lynch 最高95 最低37.25 周四最后价 46.85
Goldman Sachs 最高250.7 最低140.27 周四最后价 179.63
Fannie Mae 最高70.67 最低18.25 周四最后价 32.58
Freddie Mac 最高68.19 最低16.59 周四最后价 34.30
- 注册
- 2002-04-16
- 消息
- 7,217
- 荣誉分数
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- 声望点数
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Thought to leave a gentle reminder here, maybe it's time to take some profits from the table. If you happen to long the financial stocks at mid March, at least 10% return would be in your pocket.
From here, market may take a break and have a moderate pullback. In general, market is pretty strong despite the terrible economic date published last week. From today's volume and price changes, bull's momentum was just not strong enough to push the big index breaking out the major resistance. In the longer term time frame, we were still in the bear market. But personally, I could not see any convincing reasons to support any near future big sell off. However, no matter willing or not, we have to admit market is unpredictable. We will know until then.Good luck!
From here, market may take a break and have a moderate pullback. In general, market is pretty strong despite the terrible economic date published last week. From today's volume and price changes, bull's momentum was just not strong enough to push the big index breaking out the major resistance. In the longer term time frame, we were still in the bear market. But personally, I could not see any convincing reasons to support any near future big sell off. However, no matter willing or not, we have to admit market is unpredictable. We will know until then.Good luck!
- 注册
- 2002-04-16
- 消息
- 7,217
- 荣誉分数
- 1,637
- 声望点数
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Big ER season is coming!
Blue chips, like IBM/GOOG/MSFT/AAPL/ISRG will release its quarterly earnings one after one. Intc just brightened its forecast hours ago despite the missed EPS. The reactions from the general market is kind of positive.
Considering the big index was retreated to its important support level, if all those big tech ERs are not surprisingly bad, we would expect to see an uptrend wave soon.
And finally, financial is not the only focus in the market, at least in this short term time frame. We will have more fun to play.
Commodities are still strong, as predicted before, MOS reached 120 before spring and POT is on the way of approaching 200. However tracing high is not safe at this moment.
Will start to "long" techs tomorrow.
YMYD
Blue chips, like IBM/GOOG/MSFT/AAPL/ISRG will release its quarterly earnings one after one. Intc just brightened its forecast hours ago despite the missed EPS. The reactions from the general market is kind of positive.
Considering the big index was retreated to its important support level, if all those big tech ERs are not surprisingly bad, we would expect to see an uptrend wave soon.
And finally, financial is not the only focus in the market, at least in this short term time frame. We will have more fun to play.
Commodities are still strong, as predicted before, MOS reached 120 before spring and POT is on the way of approaching 200. However tracing high is not safe at this moment.
Will start to "long" techs tomorrow.
YMYD
- 注册
- 2002-04-16
- 消息
- 7,217
- 荣誉分数
- 1,637
- 声望点数
- 393
Some updates
Intel, IBM and Google all released positive ER in the past week. IBM hit 52 weeks new high at $125 on April 18,while Google surged up $89.87 (19.99%) in a single trading day. The Nasdaq index was lifted by 5+% in one week. It was just amazing of this bullish move! Tech is definitely the leader in the market for now.
Readings from chart, Naz reached 2400 level and a consolidation or correction is expecting in the next two weeks. MSFT/AAPL/BIDU will release ER soon and big market will fluctuate accordingly. Except ER plays, If you haven't entered any long positions, pls wait for next set up patiently. Aggressive traders will start to build index short positions gradually; At least it is the time to find exit point and realize some profits at long side.
Having said all the bullish signals of the market, fundamental things are not getting better. Fed cut rate by a lot, however, borrowing cost is still high. Citi sold leveraged loans 90c on the dollar. This is not good for companies, their borrowing cost is going higher for past couple months. Their old loans are trading maybe 80-90c on the dollar already, it is hard for them to get new loans at better rate, otherwise, ppl will just go grab existing loans. This will hurt their bottom line. Theoretically worst is yet to come.
However stock market is always 6 months ahead of the economic cycle. At the time we have all kinds of the negative news around, in many cases stock market already bottomed out. The low of Mid march is supposed to be the mid term bottom. We have to watch closely if market will break out from the downtrend, then we can hold long positions longer. But for now, market is still in a box and only fast trading makes good profits.
For those Canadian banks, Royal, TD and BNS, I am truly believe buy in any big drop and be prepared to average down with relatively longer time frame is almost an insured win solution.
Good Luck to all.
Intel, IBM and Google all released positive ER in the past week. IBM hit 52 weeks new high at $125 on April 18,while Google surged up $89.87 (19.99%) in a single trading day. The Nasdaq index was lifted by 5+% in one week. It was just amazing of this bullish move! Tech is definitely the leader in the market for now.
Readings from chart, Naz reached 2400 level and a consolidation or correction is expecting in the next two weeks. MSFT/AAPL/BIDU will release ER soon and big market will fluctuate accordingly. Except ER plays, If you haven't entered any long positions, pls wait for next set up patiently. Aggressive traders will start to build index short positions gradually; At least it is the time to find exit point and realize some profits at long side.
Having said all the bullish signals of the market, fundamental things are not getting better. Fed cut rate by a lot, however, borrowing cost is still high. Citi sold leveraged loans 90c on the dollar. This is not good for companies, their borrowing cost is going higher for past couple months. Their old loans are trading maybe 80-90c on the dollar already, it is hard for them to get new loans at better rate, otherwise, ppl will just go grab existing loans. This will hurt their bottom line. Theoretically worst is yet to come.
However stock market is always 6 months ahead of the economic cycle. At the time we have all kinds of the negative news around, in many cases stock market already bottomed out. The low of Mid march is supposed to be the mid term bottom. We have to watch closely if market will break out from the downtrend, then we can hold long positions longer. But for now, market is still in a box and only fast trading makes good profits.
For those Canadian banks, Royal, TD and BNS, I am truly believe buy in any big drop and be prepared to average down with relatively longer time frame is almost an insured win solution.
Good Luck to all.
- 注册
- 2002-04-16
- 消息
- 7,217
- 荣誉分数
- 1,637
- 声望点数
- 393
FINANCIALS!
After a consolidation, it looks like a spike up is coming. SPX may reach 1425 in this round, within a two weeks time frame.
Time for a FED PLAY. Long financial stocks, called XLF today.
Most sectors would rise, but not sure commodities stocks since they are too high and need a consolidation.
Also, chinese ADRs are hot in this round. Pay a close watch.
Good luck to all.
After a consolidation, it looks like a spike up is coming. SPX may reach 1425 in this round, within a two weeks time frame.
Time for a FED PLAY. Long financial stocks, called XLF today.
Most sectors would rise, but not sure commodities stocks since they are too high and need a consolidation.
Also, chinese ADRs are hot in this round. Pay a close watch.
Good luck to all.
