精华 canadian banks

[挺傻]

just wondering if it is a good time to buy in some mutual fund on financial sector?

I don't buy mutual funds considering its low liquidity and relatively high management fee.

FOMC will be released on April 30, it will determine the direction of the big market. Everybody is waiting the comments from the FED on inflation and bottom line. As a general rule, never hold heavy positions before big events. The market has been trading in a range, it may break up or break down.

Oh, there is an old saying, "sell in May and go away". True or not, let's wait and see this time.

 

[挺傻]

Are you doing options, May I ask you what's the strike price/expiry month you called? thanks

I am out my xlf call options today with some gain. Don't feel comfortable of tomorrow's data. Just in case it has a water fall.

 

[topone]

Thanks for the information. I haven't bought those call options...the market is not good today, the report from Citi investment research yesterday didn't sound good...let's wait...thanks again

I am out my xlf call options today with some gain. Don't feel comfortable of tomorrow's data. Just in case it has a water fall.

 

[挺傻]

Thanks for the information. I haven't bought those call options...the market is not good today, the report from Citi investment research yesterday didn't sound good...let's wait...thanks again

Thanks for the sharings.

Indexes were sitting at the top of their consolidation zones which had been in place since mid Jan.
Big earnings were mixed, but market absorbed bad news and held its ground.
Data released are not too bad, but not good either.
CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio broke trend line,but not badly. According to past experience, this indicator never failed to predict a pivotal point. Have to wait and see tomorrow's closing for a further confirmation.
S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily, Canada) break the trend line and support level of 13900. It should point down to test MA200.
Market breadth is not positive as well.

TA indicators were mixed, but from FA point, nothing has changed fundamentally.We were still in a long term down trend bear market. RBC downgraded BNS this morning, although share price didn't drop a lot.As a stronger believer of FA, I have PUT the IWM this morning and plan to call QQQQ for hedging.

FED's action is important, however the more important is the market reaction. The trend may not show right after FED's action. Please be patient.
And tomorrow's GDP data is worth to watch as well.

My wild guess of several scenarios:

No rate cut, with forecasting of stable economy, end of financial crisis and low inflation.-- market will surge big. But this have low possibility.

No rate cut, worries of inflation. Market will break down to new low.

Rate cut with pause signal. US $ will down first then stabilize. Market slightly up or down, toward bullish.

Rate cut without any pause hint. us$ will go south, commodity will surge, market bearish.

It will be a volatile day tomorrow and a big move was expected by many traders.
On the long side, if we get a clean break out after Fed meeting (>1420), we could see another 100 points gain on SPX. If it fails again, on the short side, it may fall into the range and there is a possibilty to make new low.

Anyway, be patient to wait for market to choose a direction after Fed. Good luck to all.

 

[赤练仙子]

Thank you Tinsa for sharing your info with us

 

[TXK]

Oh, there is an old saying, "sell in May and go away". True or not, let's wait and see this time.

Wall Street: Sell what in May and go away?

In an unusual period on Wall Street, the old seasonal standby doesn't apply. But the opposite might.

Sell what in May and go away? - May. 1, 2008

Just for sharing.

 

[赤练仙子]

Thank you Tinsa for sharing your info with us

I don't know how this happenes. It's so small

Thanks everyone for sharing

 

[挺傻]

仙子JJ，你太可爱了。
感谢TXK分享。

微软收回了对YAHOO的收购，可能是今天看到的一个市场上最大的消息。周五雅虎包括盘后上涨了大约10％，可是如果观察期权的交易行为，庄家当天一直在卖看多期权。以此判断，周五对雅虎是不能追涨的。

对于市场，多空两方阵营都有自己令人信服的论据。从市场反应来看，牛确实获得了不小的上升力量。虽然几大指数在目前的位置看，我个人认为多头的阻力比空头大，但顶部和底部都不是一天就会形成的，势头总会依照惯性有所持续。市场很多时候是会给两次机会的，就看是不是可以把握和利用。

对于经济的基本面来说，前两天写的一个东西贴过来，可能完全是错误的，仅供参考而已。
Crisis is still far from finished:
1. Persistent financial dislocations have now caused the real economy to become, in itself, a source of potential disruption.
2. Economic data in the US has taken a notable turn for the worse. Most importantly, the already weakening employment outlook is being further undermined by a widely diffused build-up in inventory and falling profitability. History suggests that the latter two factors lead to significant employment losses.
3. Consumers! The ability to sustain spending is challenged by the declining availability of credit, negative wealth effect (declining house value), lower standard of living (higher energy and food price, depreciating dollar) plus job losses-- Loss of confidence.
So the nasty turn in the real economy may fuel another wave of disruption that, this time around, would also have an impact on mid-size and smaller banks.
FED dual objectives will become increasingly inconsistent and difficult to reconcile.(Inflationary pressure, slowdown in economy)

现在的操作方式还是LONG/SHORT。LONG了强势板块的强势股，PUT了大盘作为HEDGE。不管怎么说，MONEY MANAGEMENT总是第一位的。

 

[挺傻]

Index is due for a pull back right from here. Unless any surprising good ER tomorrow.(CSCO will ER after market close, watch closely)

It may be not a bad time to take some profits on strong stocks and leave some for a free run. Index put will have good run in the coming week.

Still some strong sectors worth to long, like coals, dry bucks, gold related and some emerging market ADRs.

Ideal pattern is market has a pull back, revisit or close to March's low, piggy for a while then break up for a new trend. (in several months time frame) If market still in a tight box, we may have to be really patient to find a direction. It's hard to trade in a range market.

Let's wait and see. Good Luck!

 

[赤练仙子]

现在的操作方式还是LONG/SHORT。LONG了强势板块的强势股，PUT了大盘作为HEDGE。不管怎么说，MONEY MANAGEMENT总是第一位的。

挺傻MM，PUT 是SHORT， CALL 是 LONG 对吗？我回家就分不清了.

 

[挺傻]

挺傻MM，PUT 是SHORT， CALL 是 LONG 对吗？我回家就分不清了.

如果你买，无论是PUT 还是CALL都是叫做LONG。不过买CALL是LONG往上做的,买PUT是LONG往下做的。买这些东西你最多可能损失的就是你花的钱，但是利润可能是无限的。比如说那天GOOG ER，LONG CALL如果选择的好是翻了100多倍的。不过这种机会都是可遇不可求的。

如果你卖出CALL和PUT都是叫做SHORT。然后你在买回来叫做COVER。
一般的散户是不怎么轻易SHORT CALL和PUT的，特别是卖NAKED CALL，NAKED PUT，利润是有限的，损失是无限的。一般要在IV很大并且大顶或者大底的情况下才操作。

不要忘记看交易量，SPREAD及IMPLIED IV。

仙子JJ GOOD LUCK!

 

[赤练仙子]

:thanks: :thanks:

 

[挺傻]

上周的大盘真的很BORING。既不BREAK UP也不BREAK DOWN,在一个BOX里面上上下下的钴踊做拉锯战。还是TECH比较强，DOW比较弱，个股起伏大一些，但也不是TREND MARKET。下周OE，总得有点亮点出来才行。
牛军和熊军，各自加点油啦。

 

[buddy]

上周的大盘真的很BORING。既不BREAK UP也不BREAK DOWN,在一个BOX里面上上下下的钴踊做拉锯战。还是TECH比较强，DOW比较弱，个股起伏大一些，但也不是TREND MARKET。下周OE，总得有点亮点出来才行。
牛军和熊军，各自加点油啦。

Just curiosity, are you a professional trader?

 

[挺傻]

Just curiosity, are you a professional trader?

不是.