精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽,成败得失笑谈中

本帖由 加京游子2009-07-03 发布。版面名称:投资理财

  1. R A G E

    R A G E 新手上路 ID:1458

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    Gambling = pure risk seekers; disregard all risks

    Trading = taking calculated or accpetable risks; of course, the level of acceptance varies by individuals

    just my 2 cent
     
  2. 加京游子

    加京游子 新手上路 ID:81549

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    一夜之间,几十万、几百万地赔,如果不是败军之将,那还能是什么?

    林彪是自觉没有70%以上胜算的仗不打,粟裕是觉得该打就打,两人都成了共和国的开国帅将,神!Livermore是多空并进、以空胜出,Lynch是只多不空,两人都成了华尔街的神!天生的,学不来的!

    你如果是忠诚的读者并踊跃提问,我的业余著述都可以签名免费赠送---但愿有那一天并且是在不太久远的将来!

    Best of lucks!
     
  3. 挺傻

    挺傻 Moderator ID:1176 管理成员 VIP

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    谢谢你的提醒和建议。:)

    补充一点,我觉得如果不是专业专职TRADER(有时间全天盯盘),还是避免作NAKED SHORT。我作的都是SPREAD,基本上每个仓位都有或多或少的HEDGE,特别是在目前的市场情况下。
     
  4. 加京游子

    加京游子 新手上路 ID:81549

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    Yes, honey, hedge! That is the key word, HEDGE! 到今天为止,我的所有positions都是单向的long,除了今天做的MGM options,我没有短期非卖不可的,这些options都是铁了心的,亏赚都无关痛痒的---这是我想不赔本纠正MGMAC错误的做法!我可能会short,但一般都买puts,除了有in-the-money calls做hedge,现在还没有。This market is at the pivotal point and can go either way. I would rather err on the long side! Best of lucks!
     
  5. Green158

    Green158 知名会员 ID:44743

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  6. Green158

    Green158 知名会员 ID:44743

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    我觉得现在做Spread或hedge ,看是怎么setup , 要是LZ真得要买当月的SPY 90P 来和hedge long ,SPY只要在 950上猪个几天,这种OTM PUT小跌到时估计是起不到hedge 作用,现在市场要跌也是阴跌,大跌的可能性不大。
     
  7. 加京游子

    加京游子 新手上路 ID:81549

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    说得挺有道理的!我要hedge的是短时间内的狂跌而不是阴跌因为我现在不愿卖掉我的long positions---买保险嘛,有谁还真愿意意外发生呀!
     
  8. 挺傻

    挺傻 Moderator ID:1176 管理成员 VIP

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    市场总是很微妙。
    HEDGE,要看每个人的账户里面买的是什么东西,策略会有所不同。
    可以买PUT,买CALL,可以卖COVER CALL,也可以做BEAR SPREAD或者BULL SPREAD。看自己对大势的预测,也看自己愿意承担的风险。


    周末看大盘觉得如果周一周二涨不上去就没有什么上涨力度了。应该是做空的好时机。
    今天大盘就调高开,让前两天做空的人难受。明天说不定还给你往上拔,看你COVER不COVER你的仓位,忍着不COVER吧,就还给你往上吊,忍不住了赶紧COVER吧,它就开始往下泄。就是这么逗。

    但是在这个大盘连续呈现升势四个月的似夏非夏的七月底,在这个SPX位于整数1000的阻力点,在这个失业率和公司季报未见明显好转的金融危机后,市场没有一个调整,我不大敢相信。

    不过,一切事情都有可能发生。仓位轻些吧,有时候要相信自己的判断,有些耐心。但其实更重要的是,顺势而为,该跑就要跑。
     
  9. TXK

    TXK 他乡客 ID:55542 VIP

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    挺傻班主给讲讲投资课吧。我帮你卖票。:D
    我才体会到,作空真得有胆略,有耐心。看着大盘100,200点地涨,怎么能不慌,能跑就跑了。没赔太多就不错了。:p
     
  10. 山野村妇

    山野村妇 初级会员 ID:84165 VIP

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    是的,我今天就抛出一部分SW at C$7.81/share,尽管上个季度结果比较好。如果明天有所升高,我可能再卖出一些。。。然后等着它回落。

    不过我今天又进了一部分BAC at U$13.95/share, 估计进价稍高了点,但从长远看,我想没太有所谓。前几天,给我的朋友买了一些BAC 及ELN, 价钱都较好。

    祝大家Happy trading! :)

     
  11. 加京游子

    加京游子 新手上路 ID:81549

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    All eyes are on Q2GDP

    The markets are at this pivotal point. Make it or break it, all eyes are on Q2GDP to be released this morning. Anything under -1.5%? Bears will undoubtedly be in deep shit! Over it? Bulls will surely suffer some painful pullbacks, only temporarily though, IMHO.

    The majority of market signals is already writing on the wall. How does one read and interpret them? 仁者见仁,智者见智, beauty lies in the eye of the beholder. All I see points to a clear bullish bias, long passing the "sell the rally" bearish stage and entering into the "buy the dip" bullish mood. Minor corrections will surely happen here and there, now and then. The trend is, nevertheless, unambiguously upwards. As such, I am all in on the bull side with a conviction. A local top will be reached and soon, no question about it whatsoever. How to read the signal? Volume --- a sharp price rise with a spike in volume, which I read as panic buying, will top this uptrend locally. I haven't seen enough volume thus far to call a local top despite the steady price increases.

    Markets are an unpredictable animal, changes of direction can take place in a blink of an eye without any prior warnings, re-enforced by the herd mentality. Be fully prepared for the unexpected and unexpectable. When it moves against your expections, get out and fast!

    As for my own little portfolio, only BAC is very much affected by the overall market --- it leads it in either direction; MGM 2QER is out Monday and that is the force in play, along with the market trend, for sure; DNDN, ELN and DVAX don't follow the market very much --- biotechs are largely driven by individual news, a distinct feature and a dorminant factor in my strong bias towards the sector, more details on that to come.

    As of 4:30am, Futures are slightly green, Europe mildly red, Nikkei off a little, and Hang Seng up a tick.

    Best of lucks!
     
  12. 加京游子

    加京游子 新手上路 ID:81549

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    Forge ahead, sit on the fence, or stay behind?

    These are the only three alternative courses of actions to take in life and in the marketplace. Put one's money where one's mouth is and keep the faith! Shooting from all sides of the mouth and keeping all grounds covered states nothing and gets one nowhere. In the meanwhile, stay alert for "black swan" events and fully guard against them at all times!
     
  13. 加京游子

    加京游子 新手上路 ID:81549

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    Q2GDP -1%, beating the crap out of street estimates

    Futures roar upwards! Can we effortlessly walk over SPY 1K and hold?
     
  14. 加京游子

    加京游子 新手上路 ID:81549

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    Wish everyone a great weekend!

    No trading, nothing to record.

    Congratulations to my fellow BAC longs! I feel the +20%, +30%, +40% days are behind BAC now as the M2M accounting rule change hearing, PPIP and stress-test results days were long gone. This feight train is, nevertheless, just starting to pull off the station with the speed-accelerator ready to be turned full-on. It will pass over anything in front of it. Get out if you are in its way. What is my exit plan for VBAAD? I am very confident that Mr. Market will send me the sell signal. As of now, I am inclined to keep it until it is in-the-money and go for the ride.

    Good luck to my fellow longs in MGM, DNDN, ELN and DVAX, if there is any. Hope MGM 2QER beats handsomely Monday and I can unload some to significantly add ORGAH. Also good luck to everyone, long or short!

    Signing off to go for a bike ride now. Until next time,

    Enjoy the just-turned good weather while it lasts!
     
  15. 加京游子

    加京游子 新手上路 ID:81549

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    What a pleasant surprise as I was just about to go out for a bike ride!

    ELN just breaks out in AH. Why? "FDA Approves INVEGA(R) SUSTENNA(TM) for the Acute and Maintenance Treatment of Schizophrenia"

    This is not ELN's drug and why does ELN surge on this news? I am myself very much pleasantly surprised indeed. This drug is developped with ELN's NanoCrystal® Technology under the EDT franchise. I am not aware of this at all --- not enough DD on my own part for sure although I thought I have done plenty, but hey, a plansant surprise is all the more appreciated! No bike ride, I got to read the royalty agreement! Icing on the cake, huh? Can't wait until Monday for the market to open!
     

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