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2013-07-27 中国证券报
世界黄金协会：截至2013年7月全球官方黄金储备
纽约时报《货币战争》作者James Rickards周三(7月24日)表示，“过去美联储不断推出量化宽松政策，期望将该国通胀水平控制在3-4%之内，同时GDP增长维持在5%左右，但目前来看效果并不理想，美国经济复苏似乎遥遥无期。”
Rickards还称，“过去美联储主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)一直重申美国经济前景良好，一旦有所好转美联储就会尝试缩减购债。然而事实证明他的言论一错再错，现在我们还有什么理由相信美联储会缩减购债？”
黄金方面，中国人民银行最近一次公布其黄金储备是在2009年4月，为1054公吨。该行或将其黄金储备用作货币战争中强有力的武器。
Rickards指出，“对于中国而言，可能最不愿意做的事情就是对外公布其黄金储备，因为这样肯定会刺激黄金价格上涨。目前美国拥有8000公吨黄金储备，欧元区国家累计拥有10000公吨，而如果货币战争爆发，中国区区1000公吨的黄金储备没有任何优势可言。不过，如果中国黄金储备能达到5000公吨，那就另当别论了。”
据相关人士透露，预计2014年4月中国可能会对外宣布其拥有5000公吨的黄金储备。
他还表示，“如果中国这样做了必定会引发市场密切关注，包括那些看空黄金的投机者。你可能觉得中国这样做并不明智，但事实并非如此。预计那时将有更多的人购买黄金。届时黄金价格将出现短期的上扬，可能是3个月或者6个月。”
他补充道，“就目前看，黄金仍是世界上最有价值的商品。如果未来全球陷入高通胀的环境，意味着退休金和养老金大幅贬值，人们的生活将出现问题，这时候谁手中握有的黄金储备多，谁就是赢家。黄金一向被认为是对抗高通胀的避险商品。”
北京时间00:42，现货黄金报1328.50美元/盎司。
China Working Quietly To Buy Up Gold
Addison Wiggin
July 24, 2013
The Fed’s preferred measures of inflation are so low they’re in the Fed’s panic zone. What gives?
“There’s an ideal playbook, and it would look something like this,” James Rickards, author of the New York Times bestseller Currency Wars, explained. “You’d have higher inflation than we have today, but not super high. It might be in the 3-4% range. GDP of maybe 5%, which is pretty high, and then that would bring down the debt-to-GDP ratio so the United States doesn’t look like Greece.”
The result would be a cheaper dollar, which would help exports and get the inflation the Fed wants. “And you’d have negative real interest rates,” he added, “which is to say inflation would be higher than the nominal rate — so let’s say inflation 3.5% and a nominal rate of maybe 2.5%, you’d have 1% negative rates.”
None of that is happening. There’s no inflation. In fact, the Fed is talking about deflation. Instead of a weaker dollar, we have a stronger one. Interest rates are rising, but without any inflation, we’re getting positive real rates.
Rickards thinks the Fed is way off the mark about the economy’s health. Bernanke thinks the economy is in much better shape than it really is. “You look at the Fed’s forecasts for the last four years, they were wrong every time, and they were wrong by a lot, meaning why should we believe the forecast now? They’re not going to taper.”
September, Bernanke will be a lame duck. That means his last Board of Governors meeting will be in January. “We can’t be certain of this,” Rickards qualified, “but it seems very unlikely that he’s going to do anything dramatic on his way out the door. If Bernanke actually does taper in September, which I don’t expect, it’s going to be a shock to the markets, and we’re going to see more of a drawdown in gold, a drawdown in stocks.”
From the Fed, we pivoted to gold. The People’s Bank of China last revealed its total gold holdings in April 2009 — 1,054 tonnes — and they could use it as a weapon in the currency wars.
“If you’re China, the last thing you want to do is be transparent about your gold purchases, because it will drive the price up,” says Rickards. He compared China’s strategy to a game of Texas hold ’em. “You want a big pile of chips. The U.S. has a big pile of chips, Europe has a big pile of chips. The U.S. has 8,000 tonnes of gold, 17 members of the euro system have 10,000 tonnes. China at 1,000 tonnes is not a player, but at 5,000 tonnes, they are a player.”
According to his best information, China is there already. To be clear, no one really knows, except for maybe a member of the Communist Party, says Jim. “But I have spoken to a number of sources in Asia,” he says. “I’ve spoken to a number of people who are very close to the physical market, I’ve done my own investigations. Every time I have an estimate and try to verify it, what I get back is that I’m wrong on the low side.”
So he expects that come April 2014, China will announce that it owns 5,000 tonnes of gold.
“That should be an earthquake because even the gold deniers, the gold doubters, are going to have to sit up and take notice. Either the Chinese are dopes, which they’re not, or people will start to get gold, which I think they will.”
If these scenarios played out, gold would go a lot higher. Jim told us it could go up in a very short span of time, say, 90 days or at the most six months.
“The world of $4,000 gold is the world of $400 oil, $100 silver, higher prices for copper, corn, wheat and everything else,” he continued. “In other words, it’s a world of very high inflation in which the value of your retirement funds and your annuities have been wiped out.
In that case, there will be winners and losers. As Mr. Rickards explains, the winners will include those who hold gold. “That’s going to be a very small minority. It’s a small minority today. It might get a little bit larger, but that’s not most of the population.”
The losers will be everyone else. “So,” Jim explains, “you’re going to have this resentment, this political resentment, where the vast majority of the people who just sort of took it on the chin are going to be looking at a small number of people who protected themselves, and they’re going to say that’s not fair. And we’ve seen this before. Congress has a way of dealing with it, which is a windfall profits tax.”
He was quick to add that laws like that don’t happen overnight — there’s a legislative process that bogs it down. “Secondly,” he adds, “you should be able to see it coming and maybe pivot out.”
Addison Wiggin
for the Daily Reckoning
