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银行什么时候调高利率？
@mooncake
加国通货膨胀率连2月上升 达2.4%
2014-07-19 05:41 法新社
受能源及食品价格推动，加拿大6月通膨升高至2.4%
儘管加拿大经济及就业情况疲弱，但通货膨胀率却连续两个月上升。加拿大统计局18日公布的数据显示，6月消费者物价指数再升高到2.4%，创下两年新高，核心通膨也推升到1.8%，接近中央银行订定的2%目標。
更令人意外的是能源並非唯一推升物价的因素，食品价格暴涨，住房费用依然有泡沫，民眾经济採买的其他商品也一样。
「现在有50%以上的项目都以2%（央行的目標）以上的速度上升。」满地可银行资本市场首席经济师波特指出：「通膨持续升高的力道和广泛性至少使人对上半年通膨爆发会有多『短暂』提高一些疑虑，而且已使央行对通膨做的新预测岌岌可危。」
5月通膨率2.3%，分析师预期6月持平並会在未来几个月会隨著油价走低而往下走，同时加元走弱对经济的影响也会开始显现。
儘管央行认为通膨上升只是一时，但是物价自去年10月以来稳步走扬的趋势，比央行及大部分经济师预期的时间更久，力道也更强。
加元兑美元匯率盘中升高0.29美分到1加元兑93.24美分，但稍后拉回，以1加元兑93.14美分收盘。加元升值的反应是认为央行可能提前被迫升息。
统计局公布的资料显示，5月批发销售额意外增加2.2%到526亿元，创下新高。但凯投宏观（Capital Economics）经济师马达尼说，批发销售额的增长並不会令央行担心。
马达尼认同央行的整体看法：「这主要是反应匯率的转嫁效应，而非国內经济情况有所改善。整体而言……利率的走向维持不变。」
大部分分析师认为央行在明年底，甚至在2016年初之前，都不会紧缩借贷条件。多伦多道明银行首席经济师亚歷山大说，就算开始升息，做法也会循序渐进。
6月的数据显示物价广泛的承受压力。以汽油和天然气为主的能源成为通膨的主要推手，价格年增率分別是5.4%和19.4%。整体而言能源指数6月上扬6.7%，5月是8.4%。
食品价格对通膨的影响也日益重要，从5月的2.3%上涨到6月2.9%。在店家购买的食品甚至上涨3.2%，与去年6月相比，消费者为肉类付出的价格高9.4%，为新鲜蔬菜多付出9.5%。住房费用也相对提高，增加2.9%。
但物价上涨並非全面性，交通、数位运算、家具、视频设备、个人护理用品等价格都比去年6月低。
在各省方面，安省因天然气价格比去年高38.4%和汽油价上涨9.4%，把通膨推升至3%，增幅最大。魁省的通膨率则只有1.7%，是全国最低。
Inflation in Canada rises to 2.4% in June
Ontario posts largest increase with inflation rate of 3%, Quebec smallest at 1.7%
CBC News Posted: Jul 18, 2014 8:45 AM ET Last Updated: Jul 18, 2014 9:40 AM ET
An increase in food prices was one of the core drivers of inflation last month, Statistics Canada said. (Jacques Boissinot/Canadian Press)
The cost of living in Canada increased by 2.4 per cent in the year ended in June, an uptick of 0.1 percentage points from May's level and farther out on the high side of the range the Bank of Canada likes to see in setting interest rates.
Statistics Canada said higher prices for food, shelter and transportation were the main drivers for the increase. But all categories that the agency monitors were higher.
Prices for vegetables and meat at grocery stores were each up by more than nine per cent, on an annualized basis. The energy sector was also a standout on the upside in the past year: Gasoline by 5.4 per cent in the past year and natural gas by as much as 19.4 per cent.
More taxes keep pushing up the price of tobacco. Cigarettes now cost an average of 10.3 per cent more than they did last June.
Across the country, Ontario posted the largest increase with an inflation rate of three per cent, while Quebec recorded the smallest, at 1.7 per cent.
Since bottoming out at 0.7 per cent in October, Canada's inflation rate has marched steadily higher in every month since.
"Inflation continues to come in strong," Scotiabank said in a research note after the data came out Friday. "We don’t expect this theme to fade away."
The increase in inflation has been enough to cause the Bank of Canada to drop its warning on the dangers of low inflation from its four-times-a-year Monetary Policy Report earlier this week.
@mooncake
加国通货膨胀率连2月上升 达2.4%
2014-07-19 05:41 法新社
受能源及食品价格推动，加拿大6月通膨升高至2.4%
儘管加拿大经济及就业情况疲弱，但通货膨胀率却连续两个月上升。加拿大统计局18日公布的数据显示，6月消费者物价指数再升高到2.4%，创下两年新高，核心通膨也推升到1.8%，接近中央银行订定的2%目標。
更令人意外的是能源並非唯一推升物价的因素，食品价格暴涨，住房费用依然有泡沫，民眾经济採买的其他商品也一样。
「现在有50%以上的项目都以2%（央行的目標）以上的速度上升。」满地可银行资本市场首席经济师波特指出：「通膨持续升高的力道和广泛性至少使人对上半年通膨爆发会有多『短暂』提高一些疑虑，而且已使央行对通膨做的新预测岌岌可危。」
5月通膨率2.3%，分析师预期6月持平並会在未来几个月会隨著油价走低而往下走，同时加元走弱对经济的影响也会开始显现。
儘管央行认为通膨上升只是一时，但是物价自去年10月以来稳步走扬的趋势，比央行及大部分经济师预期的时间更久，力道也更强。
加元兑美元匯率盘中升高0.29美分到1加元兑93.24美分，但稍后拉回，以1加元兑93.14美分收盘。加元升值的反应是认为央行可能提前被迫升息。
统计局公布的资料显示，5月批发销售额意外增加2.2%到526亿元，创下新高。但凯投宏观（Capital Economics）经济师马达尼说，批发销售额的增长並不会令央行担心。
马达尼认同央行的整体看法：「这主要是反应匯率的转嫁效应，而非国內经济情况有所改善。整体而言……利率的走向维持不变。」
大部分分析师认为央行在明年底，甚至在2016年初之前，都不会紧缩借贷条件。多伦多道明银行首席经济师亚歷山大说，就算开始升息，做法也会循序渐进。
6月的数据显示物价广泛的承受压力。以汽油和天然气为主的能源成为通膨的主要推手，价格年增率分別是5.4%和19.4%。整体而言能源指数6月上扬6.7%，5月是8.4%。
食品价格对通膨的影响也日益重要，从5月的2.3%上涨到6月2.9%。在店家购买的食品甚至上涨3.2%，与去年6月相比，消费者为肉类付出的价格高9.4%，为新鲜蔬菜多付出9.5%。住房费用也相对提高，增加2.9%。
但物价上涨並非全面性，交通、数位运算、家具、视频设备、个人护理用品等价格都比去年6月低。
在各省方面，安省因天然气价格比去年高38.4%和汽油价上涨9.4%，把通膨推升至3%，增幅最大。魁省的通膨率则只有1.7%，是全国最低。
Inflation in Canada rises to 2.4% in June
Ontario posts largest increase with inflation rate of 3%, Quebec smallest at 1.7%
CBC News Posted: Jul 18, 2014 8:45 AM ET Last Updated: Jul 18, 2014 9:40 AM ET
An increase in food prices was one of the core drivers of inflation last month, Statistics Canada said. (Jacques Boissinot/Canadian Press)
The cost of living in Canada increased by 2.4 per cent in the year ended in June, an uptick of 0.1 percentage points from May's level and farther out on the high side of the range the Bank of Canada likes to see in setting interest rates.
Statistics Canada said higher prices for food, shelter and transportation were the main drivers for the increase. But all categories that the agency monitors were higher.
Prices for vegetables and meat at grocery stores were each up by more than nine per cent, on an annualized basis. The energy sector was also a standout on the upside in the past year: Gasoline by 5.4 per cent in the past year and natural gas by as much as 19.4 per cent.
More taxes keep pushing up the price of tobacco. Cigarettes now cost an average of 10.3 per cent more than they did last June.
Across the country, Ontario posted the largest increase with an inflation rate of three per cent, while Quebec recorded the smallest, at 1.7 per cent.
Since bottoming out at 0.7 per cent in October, Canada's inflation rate has marched steadily higher in every month since.
"Inflation continues to come in strong," Scotiabank said in a research note after the data came out Friday. "We don’t expect this theme to fade away."
The increase in inflation has been enough to cause the Bank of Canada to drop its warning on the dangers of low inflation from its four-times-a-year Monetary Policy Report earlier this week.
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