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January 4, 2015 5:22 pm
US should enjoy afternoon sunshine while it lasts
Edward Luce
In 2015 Europe will still be waiting for Godot while America copes with return to normality
©Matt Kenyon illustration
Three decades ago, Ronald Reagan declared “Morning in America” after years of economic turmoil. His timing was perfect. Several years of boom ensued. No one today would dare muse about the US being a “shining city on the hill”. There have been too many false dawns since 2008 for that. Yet a corner has been turned. The recovery under Barack Obama has been painfully slow by postwar standards, but it is fast compared to most of the rest of the world. There is also more to come in 2015. The US should enjoy the afternoon sunshine while it lasts.
Most of America’s good news is relative. The US is estimated to have grown last year by 2.6 per cent — roughly half a percentage point higher than the previous five years of recovery. This was weak compared to all previous US recoveries barring the first business cycle of the 21st century. But it looks stellar compared to the eurozone, which barely cleared 1 per cent. This coming year is likely to be very similar. The US will grow by around 3 per cent while the Europeans and Japan would be lucky to exceed 1 per cent.
Moreover, US unemployment is falling more rapidly than it has in years. With almost 3m jobs created, 2014 was the best year for the US labour market since 1999 — the height of Bill Clinton’s boom. At 5.8 per cent, the US jobless rate is almost half the rate of the eurozone. Most of America’s new jobs may be casualised and poorly paid. But they are jobs nonetheless. By contrast, countries such as Italy, France and Spain are unable to generate jobs of any description. A whole generation of Europeans is withering on the vine.
The next few months will crystallise the growing US-Europe divergence. At some point — probably in June — Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve will begin the long-awaited turn in the US interest rate cycle. Should the US continue to create more than 250,000 jobs a month, that point could come sooner. The era of exceptionally easy money is at an end in the US. With luck, the European Central Bank will head in the opposite direction. Alas, the ECB is still debating how and on what scale to deploy the same kind of tools that have helped dig the US out of the post-2008 slump. In 2015 Europe will still be waiting for Godot while the US will be coping with a return to normality.
That is America’s good news. But it is of the type that used to qualify as bad. Nor will it persist for very long. The US recovery is already mature — there is no Clinton-style middle class boom around the corner. In spite of seven years of zero interest rates, the US has yet to clear the 3 per cent growth milestone. Free money does not go far nowadays. Long run trend growth has fallen from above 3 per cent to about 2 per cent. The US middle class has yet to regain its pre-2008 median income levels. It would take several years of 3 per cent growth for that to occur. The chances are this business cycle will come to an end in 2016 or 2017 without that having happened.
The contrast with the Reagan years is telling. In those days the US was the twin-engined motor of the global economy. Today the US is not strong enough to lift the rest of the world out of a downturn. But it is robust enough to continue to motor ahead even if Europe and Japan stall. The most important ingredient in the recent US growth spurt is the near-halving in the global oil price in the past six months. That has put hundreds of extra dollars in the pockets of Americans each month, boosting consumer spending. If the price of oil stays below $60 a barrel in 2015, the windfall will add about half a percentage point to US headline growth — enough to make up for the absence of real wage growth.
The more persistent lift has come from rising US asset prices. The stock market boom has helped revive the housing market and pension valuations. Some of the gains are vulnerable to a tightening of US interest rates. Some may also be jeopardised by the type of crisis that so often follows a turn in the US monetary cycle. Risk forecasters spend half their time nowadays searching for unexploded bombs on emerging market balance sheets. Yet by historic standards, the US equity markets are not yet in bubble territory. US corporate balance sheets are also strong. Barring a global meltdown, the surge in American asset prices ought to survive gradual monetary tightening.
Why, then, are so few people popping the champagne? The answer is simple. Most Americans are worse off than they were at the beginning of the 21st century, while the top sliver are dramatically richer. There is no reason to believe the US has found the answer to that. Relative to most of Europe, America’s middle class have better prospects, particularly in the short term. But in the long run, we are all subject to the same grand squeeze.
The US system still has the wherewithal to generate growth — albeit with gains captured almost wholly by the top echelons. But it is neither your parents’ recovery, nor your grandparents’. This coming year will be America’s best in a decade. It will nevertheless elude most Americans.
edward.luce@ft.com
美国夕阳无限好，人民晒到多少？
爱德华·卢斯 英国《金融时报》华盛顿分社社长
三十年前，罗纳德·里根宣布，在经历多年的经济动荡后，“美国迎来了清晨”。这则竞选广告的时机拿捏得可谓完美，接下去几年美国经济一片繁荣。今天，大家都不好意思再提美国是“璀璨的山顶之城”。自2008年以来，有太多次我们以为迎来了黎明却发现仍然黑暗一片。然而，转机已经出现——虽然按战后标准来看，奥巴马引领的美国经济复苏艰辛而缓慢，但它仍然比世界大多数地区要快。2015年还会有更多的好消息，夕阳无限好，美国应该好好享受。
美国所谓好消息的“好”大多只是相对的。据估计，美国去年经济增长2.6%——比过去五年恢复期高出大约0.5个百分点。比起美国过去（除21世纪首个商业周期以外的）历次经济复苏，此次经济复苏可谓乏力。但相比欧元区刚到1%的增长率，美国的经济表现又是那样抢眼。新的一年一切基本照旧，美国的增长将在3%左右，而欧洲和日本运气好的话能突破1%。
此外，如今美国失业率下降的速度处于多年来的最快水平。去年，美国创造了近300万个就业岗位，使2014年成为1999年克林顿政府鼎盛时期以来美国劳动力市场形势最好的一年。美国失业率为5.8%，仅为欧元区的一半。诚然，美国大多数新增就业岗位是临时工岗位，报酬很低，但临时工毕竟也是“工”。相比之下，意大利、法国和西班牙等国任何新的工作岗位都创造不出来，整整一代欧洲人的幸福和理想正在枯萎夭折。
接下来的几个月，美欧经济政策将清晰地分道扬镳。耶伦领导下的美联储或将在今年6月迎来期待已久的转折，开始加息。如果美国继续每月新增超过25万个就业机会，这个转折点可能将提前到来。美国轻轻松松印钞票的时代已经结束。如果欧洲的量化宽松政策侥幸通过，欧洲央行将走向与美国相反的方向。唉，帮助美国经济走出低谷的工具摆在欧洲央行面前，而欧洲人仍在就如何运用以及以何种规模运用该工具争论不休。2015年，欧洲将继续“等待戈多”，而美国将努力恢复常态。
这是美国的好消息。放在过去，这算得上坏消息。即使是好消息，也不会持续很长时间。美国经济复苏已经成熟定型，未来不会出现克林顿时期那种中产阶级欣欣向荣的景象。尽管零利率政策已经执行了七年，美国经济增长至今仍未突破3%大关。无息举债的日子快要到头了。长远来看，增长趋势已经从3%以上下调至2%左右。美国中产阶级中位收入水平若要恢复至2008年前的水平，美国还需持续数年以3%的速度增长。然而，到2016年或2017年本轮商业周期结束时，美国经济增速可能都到不了3%。
今天的美国与里根时代的美国形成了强烈的反差。三十年前，美国是全球经济的两大引擎之一。今天，美国虽无力引领世界经济走出低谷，但即使欧洲和日本经济引擎停转，足够茁壮的美国经济仍能继续前行。过去六个月中，全球石油价格暴跌几乎一半，这是近来刺激美国经济陡增的首要因素。油价暴跌意味着美国每人每月口袋里额外多出几百元钱，这刺激了消费。如果今年油价保持在每桶60美元以下，这份天降大礼将使美国总体增长提高0.5个百分点，足以弥补实际工资增长停滞的短板。
美国资产价格上扬则是更持久的利好消息。景气的股市重振了房地产市场，提高了养老金估值。利率紧缩和货币周期之间的常规性危机都很容易破坏这些利好面。如今，风险预测者们把一半的时间都花在给新兴市场资产负债表“扫雷”上。按照历史标准，美国股市还没有进入危险的泡沫地带。美国企业的资产负债表还较为健康。除非出现全球性危机，逐渐紧缩的货币政策应该不会对美国资产价格上涨造成致命打击。
既然如此，为什么没几个人开香槟庆祝？答案很简单。因为除了极少数富人富得超乎想象，大多数美国人过得不如本世纪初滋润。在贫富差距问题上，美国显然还没有找到答案。在短期之内，美国中产阶级的前景或许好过欧洲大部分地区的中产阶级，但从长远来看，西方社会的中产者们都将遭到社会上层的沉重挤压。
美国仍能采取必要手段来促进增长——尽管所有收益最终几乎都将被顶层精英们吞占。此次美国经济的复苏，既赶不上里根时代的复苏，也难与大萧条后的复苏相提并论。对美国来说，新的一年将是这十年中最黄金的一年。然而，这美好的夕阳毕竟晒不到大多数美国人头上。
（本文原载于《金融时报》，原题“US should enjoy afternoon sunshine while it lasts”，杨晗轶译）
抗议失业率过高的美国民众
US should enjoy afternoon sunshine while it lasts
In 2015 Europe will still be waiting for Godot while America copes with return to normality
©Matt Kenyon illustration
Three decades ago, Ronald Reagan declared “Morning in America” after years of economic turmoil. His timing was perfect. Several years of boom ensued. No one today would dare muse about the US being a “shining city on the hill”. There have been too many false dawns since 2008 for that. Yet a corner has been turned. The recovery under Barack Obama has been painfully slow by postwar standards, but it is fast compared to most of the rest of the world. There is also more to come in 2015. The US should enjoy the afternoon sunshine while it lasts.
Most of America’s good news is relative. The US is estimated to have grown last year by 2.6 per cent — roughly half a percentage point higher than the previous five years of recovery. This was weak compared to all previous US recoveries barring the first business cycle of the 21st century. But it looks stellar compared to the eurozone, which barely cleared 1 per cent. This coming year is likely to be very similar. The US will grow by around 3 per cent while the Europeans and Japan would be lucky to exceed 1 per cent.
Moreover, US unemployment is falling more rapidly than it has in years. With almost 3m jobs created, 2014 was the best year for the US labour market since 1999 — the height of Bill Clinton’s boom. At 5.8 per cent, the US jobless rate is almost half the rate of the eurozone. Most of America’s new jobs may be casualised and poorly paid. But they are jobs nonetheless. By contrast, countries such as Italy, France and Spain are unable to generate jobs of any description. A whole generation of Europeans is withering on the vine.
The next few months will crystallise the growing US-Europe divergence. At some point — probably in June — Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve will begin the long-awaited turn in the US interest rate cycle. Should the US continue to create more than 250,000 jobs a month, that point could come sooner. The era of exceptionally easy money is at an end in the US. With luck, the European Central Bank will head in the opposite direction. Alas, the ECB is still debating how and on what scale to deploy the same kind of tools that have helped dig the US out of the post-2008 slump. In 2015 Europe will still be waiting for Godot while the US will be coping with a return to normality.
That is America’s good news. But it is of the type that used to qualify as bad. Nor will it persist for very long. The US recovery is already mature — there is no Clinton-style middle class boom around the corner. In spite of seven years of zero interest rates, the US has yet to clear the 3 per cent growth milestone. Free money does not go far nowadays. Long run trend growth has fallen from above 3 per cent to about 2 per cent. The US middle class has yet to regain its pre-2008 median income levels. It would take several years of 3 per cent growth for that to occur. The chances are this business cycle will come to an end in 2016 or 2017 without that having happened.
The contrast with the Reagan years is telling. In those days the US was the twin-engined motor of the global economy. Today the US is not strong enough to lift the rest of the world out of a downturn. But it is robust enough to continue to motor ahead even if Europe and Japan stall. The most important ingredient in the recent US growth spurt is the near-halving in the global oil price in the past six months. That has put hundreds of extra dollars in the pockets of Americans each month, boosting consumer spending. If the price of oil stays below $60 a barrel in 2015, the windfall will add about half a percentage point to US headline growth — enough to make up for the absence of real wage growth.
The more persistent lift has come from rising US asset prices. The stock market boom has helped revive the housing market and pension valuations. Some of the gains are vulnerable to a tightening of US interest rates. Some may also be jeopardised by the type of crisis that so often follows a turn in the US monetary cycle. Risk forecasters spend half their time nowadays searching for unexploded bombs on emerging market balance sheets. Yet by historic standards, the US equity markets are not yet in bubble territory. US corporate balance sheets are also strong. Barring a global meltdown, the surge in American asset prices ought to survive gradual monetary tightening.
Why, then, are so few people popping the champagne? The answer is simple. Most Americans are worse off than they were at the beginning of the 21st century, while the top sliver are dramatically richer. There is no reason to believe the US has found the answer to that. Relative to most of Europe, America’s middle class have better prospects, particularly in the short term. But in the long run, we are all subject to the same grand squeeze.
The US system still has the wherewithal to generate growth — albeit with gains captured almost wholly by the top echelons. But it is neither your parents’ recovery, nor your grandparents’. This coming year will be America’s best in a decade. It will nevertheless elude most Americans.
edward.luce@ft.com
美国夕阳无限好，人民晒到多少？
爱德华·卢斯 英国《金融时报》华盛顿分社社长
三十年前，罗纳德·里根宣布，在经历多年的经济动荡后，“美国迎来了清晨”。这则竞选广告的时机拿捏得可谓完美，接下去几年美国经济一片繁荣。今天，大家都不好意思再提美国是“璀璨的山顶之城”。自2008年以来，有太多次我们以为迎来了黎明却发现仍然黑暗一片。然而，转机已经出现——虽然按战后标准来看，奥巴马引领的美国经济复苏艰辛而缓慢，但它仍然比世界大多数地区要快。2015年还会有更多的好消息，夕阳无限好，美国应该好好享受。
美国所谓好消息的“好”大多只是相对的。据估计，美国去年经济增长2.6%——比过去五年恢复期高出大约0.5个百分点。比起美国过去（除21世纪首个商业周期以外的）历次经济复苏，此次经济复苏可谓乏力。但相比欧元区刚到1%的增长率，美国的经济表现又是那样抢眼。新的一年一切基本照旧，美国的增长将在3%左右，而欧洲和日本运气好的话能突破1%。
此外，如今美国失业率下降的速度处于多年来的最快水平。去年，美国创造了近300万个就业岗位，使2014年成为1999年克林顿政府鼎盛时期以来美国劳动力市场形势最好的一年。美国失业率为5.8%，仅为欧元区的一半。诚然，美国大多数新增就业岗位是临时工岗位，报酬很低，但临时工毕竟也是“工”。相比之下，意大利、法国和西班牙等国任何新的工作岗位都创造不出来，整整一代欧洲人的幸福和理想正在枯萎夭折。
接下来的几个月，美欧经济政策将清晰地分道扬镳。耶伦领导下的美联储或将在今年6月迎来期待已久的转折，开始加息。如果美国继续每月新增超过25万个就业机会，这个转折点可能将提前到来。美国轻轻松松印钞票的时代已经结束。如果欧洲的量化宽松政策侥幸通过，欧洲央行将走向与美国相反的方向。唉，帮助美国经济走出低谷的工具摆在欧洲央行面前，而欧洲人仍在就如何运用以及以何种规模运用该工具争论不休。2015年，欧洲将继续“等待戈多”，而美国将努力恢复常态。
这是美国的好消息。放在过去，这算得上坏消息。即使是好消息，也不会持续很长时间。美国经济复苏已经成熟定型，未来不会出现克林顿时期那种中产阶级欣欣向荣的景象。尽管零利率政策已经执行了七年，美国经济增长至今仍未突破3%大关。无息举债的日子快要到头了。长远来看，增长趋势已经从3%以上下调至2%左右。美国中产阶级中位收入水平若要恢复至2008年前的水平，美国还需持续数年以3%的速度增长。然而，到2016年或2017年本轮商业周期结束时，美国经济增速可能都到不了3%。
今天的美国与里根时代的美国形成了强烈的反差。三十年前，美国是全球经济的两大引擎之一。今天，美国虽无力引领世界经济走出低谷，但即使欧洲和日本经济引擎停转，足够茁壮的美国经济仍能继续前行。过去六个月中，全球石油价格暴跌几乎一半，这是近来刺激美国经济陡增的首要因素。油价暴跌意味着美国每人每月口袋里额外多出几百元钱，这刺激了消费。如果今年油价保持在每桶60美元以下，这份天降大礼将使美国总体增长提高0.5个百分点，足以弥补实际工资增长停滞的短板。
美国资产价格上扬则是更持久的利好消息。景气的股市重振了房地产市场，提高了养老金估值。利率紧缩和货币周期之间的常规性危机都很容易破坏这些利好面。如今，风险预测者们把一半的时间都花在给新兴市场资产负债表“扫雷”上。按照历史标准，美国股市还没有进入危险的泡沫地带。美国企业的资产负债表还较为健康。除非出现全球性危机，逐渐紧缩的货币政策应该不会对美国资产价格上涨造成致命打击。
既然如此，为什么没几个人开香槟庆祝？答案很简单。因为除了极少数富人富得超乎想象，大多数美国人过得不如本世纪初滋润。在贫富差距问题上，美国显然还没有找到答案。在短期之内，美国中产阶级的前景或许好过欧洲大部分地区的中产阶级，但从长远来看，西方社会的中产者们都将遭到社会上层的沉重挤压。
美国仍能采取必要手段来促进增长——尽管所有收益最终几乎都将被顶层精英们吞占。此次美国经济的复苏，既赶不上里根时代的复苏，也难与大萧条后的复苏相提并论。对美国来说，新的一年将是这十年中最黄金的一年。然而，这美好的夕阳毕竟晒不到大多数美国人头上。
（本文原载于《金融时报》，原题“US should enjoy afternoon sunshine while it lasts”，杨晗轶译）
抗议失业率过高的美国民众
