我看到的最悲观的预测

[peterz365]

加拿大多家主要银行降级 恐陷经济困境
加国无忧 51.CA 2015年2月4日 09:22 来源：世界日报 [ 加大字体 ｜ 缩小字体 ]

原油价格短短半年来已腰斩一半，让仰赖原油出口甚深的加国经济遭遇严重冲击，近期英国投资银行巴克莱（Barclays）调降加拿大多家银行的展望（outlook）评级。学者认为这是加国经济陷入困境的前兆，油价大跌的负面影响将从亚省扩散至全国。

尽管最近几天油价回稳，但与去年夏季每桶最高119元相较，仍然下跌逾五成，加拿大经济面临严重冲击。

英国巴克莱投资银行日前调降满银（BMO）、皇家银行（RBC）、道明银行（TD Bank）与龙顺银行（Laurentian Bank）等加国主要银行的展望评级。卑诗大学（UBC）绍德商学院教授李凯（音译，Kai Li）表示，这是加国经济即将陷入困境的征兆。



由于油价下跌，英国投资银行调降加国多家主要银行的营运展望。图为皇家银行。（取材自维基百科）

李凯说，巴克莱银行调降加国主要银行的展望评级，主要是油价下跌使得对加国大宗物资的需求减少，恐导致经济衰退，最初是区域性，就像目前亚省所出现的状况，但最终将扩及全国。

李凯指出，不久前央行之所以减息，就是因为对加拿大整体经济展望有疑虑。而加拿大银行是加国企业的主要融资管道，如果企业调降资本支出，自然会减少贷款，冲击银行获利。 无忧资讯

且一旦消费者对经济失去信心，他们也会紧缩开支，延迟购屋，将使银行获利雪上加霜。

当被问到加国未来经济前景，李凯表示，巴克莱银行已清楚看出加国经济前景不甚乐观，而银行又在加国经济体系中扮演重要角色，势必跟着遭殃。 无 忧 网 - 51

情况何时好转？李凯认为取决于油价跌到多低以及维持多久，此外，还要看加国最大贸易伙伴美国的经济复苏力道。

李凯指出，加拿大的低利环境以及加元汇价跌至2009年以来最低水平，都有助于加东制造业的出口，并刺激更多企业利用超低利率扩大投资。

 

[Jay Wang]

加拿大也要崩溃啊？

 

[peterz365]

加拿大也要崩溃啊？

关键看油价，涨上去了什么都好说，涨不上去一定出事。

 

[urus]

加拿大也要崩溃啊？

加崩元年？

 

[吃里爬外]

关键看油价，涨上去了什么都好说，涨不上去一定出事。

没事,多伦多的房子又开始涨了,什么时候房子大幅下跌,什么时候才是真的不行了

 

[rainbosun]

觉得油价是涨了一点。

 

[reine02]

哈婆说，别担心崩溃，加拿大经济基础很牢固

 

[reine02]

好消息来啦~~

油价开始绝地反击了 加元满血复活
2015-02-03 | 来源: 加拿大通信社

 

[urus]

没事,多伦多的房子又开始涨了,什么时候房子大幅下跌,什么时候才是真的不行了

上涨是跌落的前提。你要打拳， 总要先把拳头收回来吧。
不上涨， 怎么跌落？涨得越多， 跌得越狠。

 

[newer]

先看看俄罗斯吧。美国剑出鞘，没有个结果不会松手，加拿大对美国影响不大。
先给一个亿美金援助
也许以后会供给武器，如果老毛子不激动，可能就派人介入了。
如果老毛子激动了，就继续压低油价让老毛子喝西北风去。
乌克兰穷得裤子都没有了，打仗根本不是老毛子的对手。

关键看油价，涨上去了什么都好说，涨不上去一定出事。

 

[newer]

欧洲麻烦（乌克兰和希腊），对欧元是打击，这样会使美金坚挺。美国国债好卖。

当然华尔街也从石油的大跌中吸了不少银子（也包括我的血汗钱）。应该有不少人被套住了。大周期啊。

 

[newer]

Ukraine to Call Up Women Over 20 for Armed Forces
http://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-arm...izens-aged-20-50-new-recruitment-cycle-304276

单身的华人男子快去解救点乌克兰美女吧。这是白白送死，好可惜。
也有报道说成年乌克兰男子已经被限制离境了，都要去当兵了。

 

[peterz365]

没事,多伦多的房子又开始涨了,什么时候房子大幅下跌,什么时候才是真的不行了

多伦多的房价也没有去年那么乐观了。
February 4, 2015 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced a strong start to 2015, with robust year-over-year sales and average price growth in January. Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,355 home sales through the TorontoMLS system during the first month of the year. This result represented a 6.1 per cent increase over January 2014. During the same period, new listings were up by 9.5 per cent.

"The January results represented good news on multiple fronts. First, strong sales growth suggests home buyers continue to see housing as a quality long-term investment, despite the recent period of economic uncertainty. Second, the fact that new listings grew at a faster pace than sales suggests that it has become easier for some people to find a home that meets their needs," said Mr. Etherington.

The average selling price for January 2015 home sales was up by 4.9 per cent year-overyear to $552,575. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark was up by 7.5 percent compared to January 2014.

"Home price growth is forecast to continue in 2015. Lower borrowing costs will largely mitigate price growth this year, which means affordability will remain in check. The strongest rates of price growth will be experienced for low-rise home types, including singles, semis and town houses. However, robust end-user demand for condo apartments will result in above-inflation price growth in the high-rise segment as well," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

 

[newer]

利率低，加币低，就业机会多，国外来的投资可能增加，估计不会降。

多伦多的房价也没有去年那么乐观了。
February 4, 2015 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced a strong start to 2015, with robust year-over-year sales and average price growth in January. Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,355 home sales through the TorontoMLS system during the first month of the year. This result represented a 6.1 per cent increase over January 2014. During the same period, new listings were up by 9.5 per cent.

"The January results represented good news on multiple fronts. First, strong sales growth suggests home buyers continue to see housing as a quality long-term investment, despite the recent period of economic uncertainty. Second, the fact that new listings grew at a faster pace than sales suggests that it has become easier for some people to find a home that meets their needs," said Mr. Etherington.

The average selling price for January 2015 home sales was up by 4.9 per cent year-overyear to $552,575. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark was up by 7.5 percent compared to January 2014.

"Home price growth is forecast to continue in 2015. Lower borrowing costs will largely mitigate price growth this year, which means affordability will remain in check. The strongest rates of price growth will be experienced for low-rise home types, including singles, semis and town houses. However, robust end-user demand for condo apartments will result in above-inflation price growth in the high-rise segment as well," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

 

[rjl]

手头有加元的换成美元还来得及吗？