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Nanos poll: Federal ballot wound tight in three-way tie
The Nanos poll numbers from Sept 15.
CTVNews.ca Staff
Published Tuesday, September 15, 2015 7:21AM EDT
The federal election remains in a three-way statistical tie, according to the latest polling by Nanos Research for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
The latest numbers for the three leading parties:
The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. Each evening, 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The tracking is updated each day by adding information from a new day and dropping the oldest day.
The margin of error for a survey of 1,091 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Regions
When asked to rank their second choice:
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Nanos poll numbers from Sept 15.
CTVNews.ca Staff
Published Tuesday, September 15, 2015 7:21AM EDT
The federal election remains in a three-way statistical tie, according to the latest polling by Nanos Research for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
The latest numbers for the three leading parties:
- Conservatives: 31.0 per cent
- Liberals: 29.6 per cent
- NDP: 30.4 per cent
The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. Each evening, 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The tracking is updated each day by adding information from a new day and dropping the oldest day.
The margin of error for a survey of 1,091 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Regions
- The Conservatives are leading in the Prairie provinces with 50.3 per cent.
- In Quebec and British Columbia, the NDP register as the most popular party. In British Columbia, 35.3 per cent of respondents picked the New Democrats as their top choice. In Quebec, 41.8 per cent did.
- The Liberals have the highest support in Atlantic Canada, with 47.3 per cent.
- In Ontario, the Conservatives have the highest support with 34.3 per cent.
- Regional margins of error: British Columbia: 7.7 per cent, Prairies: 6.7 per cent, Ontario: 5.5 per cent, Quebec: 6.0 per cent, Atlantic: 9.6 per cent.
When asked to rank their second choice:
- Of those who ranked the Liberals first, 53 per cent picked the NDP second, 20 per cent would pick the Conservatives as their second choice, and 14 per cent said they have no second choice.
- Of those who chose the NDP as their top pick, 54 per cent said the Liberals would be their second choice, 18 per cent would pick the Green Party as their second choice, and 13 per cent said they have no second choice.
- Among those who favoured the Conservatives, 38 per cent said they have no second choice, 34 per cent said they would pick Liberals as their second choice, and 18 per cent said they would pick the NDP as their second choice.
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
