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Canada's federal election: Which way will Quebecers vote?
Philip Authier, Montreal Gazette
More from Philip Authier, Montreal Gazette
Published on: October 17, 2015 | Last Updated: October 17, 2015 2:22 PM EDT
ST-CHARLES-SUR-RICHELIEU — It’s a sunny fall day in this, the land of the patriots, and Pierre Régimbald is doing what he enjoys — dropping in on his neighbours for a chat.
Having lived here for years, he knows them well, the names of their children, their pets.
It’s that way in this village of 1,700 nestled on the banks of the Richelieu River, the site of a violent battle between the Patriotes and the British in 1837, where the flag of that rebellion still flies and the people are proud Quebec nationalists.
Reminders of history are everywhere in the town of St-Charles-sur-Richelieu, about 50 kilometres east of Montreal. Dave Sidaway / Montreal Gazette
Régimbald will tell you he has a pretty good idea of how people here voted in the 2011 federal election — and which way the wind is blowing this time.
“My 10 neighbours, they were all NDP,” Régimbald tells a roving reporter who stops for a chat. “But that’s all over this time.”
“If only he (Tom Mulcair) had said, ‘Enough.’
“It’s all well and good to be tolerant. Everyone I spoke to thinks the same way. He needed to be clear and firm.”
The “enough” refers to the niqab issue, which roared to life in the federal election campaign that ends Monday.
To hear Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau come down in favour of allowing the niqab to be worn during Canadian citizenship ceremonies was one thing, but to hear New Democratic Party leader Mulcair agree was quite another.
Mulcair’s stance landed with a thud in places like St-Charles, part of the federal riding of Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères where, at least when the campaign started 76 days ago, people were preparing to vote NDP again after making history in the previous federal election.
The Orange Wave swept through this riding, once considered a Bloc Québécois fortress, as the people elected an NDP candidate for the first time.
Now, with the NDP on the defensive in Quebec, it’s unclear which way voters will go. Régimbald and other residents interviewed in St-Charles nearly all said they are undecided.
It’s a vastly different situation than in 2011.
The Orange Wave swept through this riding, once considered a Bloc Québécois fortress, as the people elected an NDP candidate for the first time. And across the province, the election of 58 NDP MPs decimated the Bloc — where Quebecers had been parking their federal votes for years.
In provincial elections three years later, Quebec (including this riding) would experience another shift of the political tectonic plates.
Parti Québécois cabinet minister Pierre Duchesne, now chief of staff to PQ leader Pierre Karl Péladeau, went down in defeat to an unknown right-wing Coalition Avenir Québec candidate in the 2014 provincial election in this same region.
It was the election that brought Liberal leader Philippe Couillard to power, and saw the demise of the PQ government after only 18 months in office.
Again, enterprising reporters stampeded into this riding, grilling the locals, searching for answers: are these changes of allegiance part of a trend, and if so, what does this mean for the sovereignty movement?
And so here we are in 2015; the game’s afoot and the Quebec voting enigma as strong as ever. Where Quebecers choose to park their votes on Oct. 19 is anyone’s guess.
Aside from some loyalists who stuck with the Liberals or Conservatives last time, everybody else had a one-night stand with somebody else four years ago, so it’s tough to predict where they will end up (this time).
Quebec has a history of block voting, with the province regularly giving nearly all of its seats to one party or another over the years.
In 1988 it was the Conservatives under Brian Mulroney that swept into office on a wave. Before that, Pierre Trudeau enjoyed a solid Quebec block of Liberal ridings for years. The Bloc held the majority of seats for six successive elections before falling from grace in 2011.
“I don’t really know what will happen (this time),” says Université de Montréal sociologist and polling expert Claire Durand, who describes Quebec as “dangerous terrain” for any party in any federal vote.
Noting that the most recentpolling data for the provinceshows the NDP and Liberals more or less tied at between 25 per cent and 30 per cent, Durand wonders: “How will those who want to block (Conservative leader Stephen) Harper react?”
Léger pollster Christian Bourque puts it this way:
“Aside from some loyalists who stuck with the Liberals or Conservatives last time, everybody else had a one-night stand with somebody else four years ago, so it’s tough to predict where they will end up (this time).”
Bourque says things have changed since 2011, when a “perfect storm” sent the NDP to victory here and to official opposition status in the House of Commons in Ottawa.
The historic win, Bourque says, was fuelled by three situations that no longer exist.
First, in 2011 Quebecers had run out of reasons to vote Bloc, and were starting to think it was no longer useful to send separatist MPs to Ottawa out of anger over the way the place was being run or how Quebec was being treated in the federation. They instead bought back into the idea that being in the halls of power was more effective.
Second, they developed an affinity for the charismatic Jack Layton. The image of the mustachioed “bon Jack,” whom Quebecers fell in love with after his appearance on the popular talk show Tout le monde en parle, ricocheted around the province — brother to brother-in-law, cousin to cousin, friend to friend.
NDP leader Jack Layton shakes hands of supporters after giving a speech at Théâtre Olympia in Montreal on April 23, 2011. Bryanna Bradley / Montreal Gazette
Finally, in a page yanked from that big strategic voting playbook Quebecers love, many believed the NDP was the only party that could beat the Conservatives.
“This time around, these three conditions don’t really exist,” Bourque says. “If you saw off three legs on a chair, it falls apart. Recreating that perfect storm for the Orange Wave was maybe asking too much.
“It’s not that people don’t like Tom Mulcair; I think he’s respected, but there isn’t that sort of love aspect you got with Jack Layton, and maybe some are discovering (that feeling) late in the campaign with Justin Trudeau.”
Bourque argues that while it’s easy to blame the niqab for the NDP’s problems here, the reason Quebecers have been turning away from the party are more complex.
Many of the ideas the NDP has been campaigning on didn’t wash with Quebec voters.
The party offered $15 daycare to all Canadians, for example, but Quebecers already have a subsidized daycare system. The party talked about zero deficits, but many Quebecers are weary after living under an austerity regime at the provincial level.
Then there was the “Thomas in Quebec vs. Tom in Ontario” debate. Mulcair has been accused of saying one thing in English about the controversial Energy East oil pipeline, while saying something different in French.
Justin Trudeau has the same position on the niqab and yet it has helped him not hurt him, so it can’t be just the niqab itself. – Léger pollster Christian Bourque
“The niqab maybe gave people reasons to look elsewhere or shop around,” Bourque suggests. “Justin Trudeau has the same position on the niqab and yet it has helped him not hurt him, so it can’t be just the niqab itself.
“It was the perfect reason to look elsewhere.”
But there are also be strategic reasons for Quebecers to foresake the NDP. They see what is happening in vote-rich Ontario — where the Liberals now dominate and appear to be the best party to defeat the Conservatives — and so they are jumping on the bandwagon because they, too, want to be rid of Harper and be on the right side of history.
All these factors are at play in the decision-making process.
An election campaign poster in St-Charles-sur-Richelieu. Historically, the riding of Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères has voted for the Bloc Québécois, but switched to the NDP in 2011. Dave Sidaway / Montreal Gazette
Back in the riding of Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères, the niqab issue is on everyone’s lips a week before the vote.
“I liked Mulcair a lot, but he’s tripped and can’t seem to bounce back,” one man says, taking a pause from raking leaves outside his home. “For me, reasonable accommodation works both ways. If you come to this country, at least respect it.
“What would happen if a woman went to the bank to cash a cheque wearing a niqab? The cashier would hit the alarm button.”
A little further north, in one of the two ridings still held by the Bloc in Quebec after riding reconfigurations, which is now called Bécancour—Nicolet-Saurel, Denise is on her way home from the grocery store.
For her, the niqab issue stirs up old wounds, a reminder of the recent divisive debate over the PQ’s ill-fated charter of values.
Her concerns pour out.
“It (the niqab) bothers a lot of people,” she says. “If we let things go on the niqab, they’ll take our place. They’ll invade us and all the churches will go.”
She, too, is undecided about how she will vote.
In the 2011 campaign, 30 per cent of Canadians made their ultimate decision the weekend before the election and eight per cent actually made it once they stepped into the voting booth.
The lucky ones in this campaign, says veteran political analyst and columnist Christian Dufour, are those who vote out of conviction for one party or another with little consideration for Byzantine electoral strategies — including the kind of wedge politics Canadians endured during this campaign.
“They have the satisfaction of being able to vote with their conscience,” Dufour says.
For the rest the exercise can be a tortuous affair, and this campaign has been worse than others.
“The cards are completely jumbled,” Dufour says, sitting in his Mile End flat. “There are four parties in the game. That’s why people don’t know what to do.
“Let’s say you are left but oppose the niqab. Who do you vote for? The Bloc? But many say they are tired of the Bloc. So the choices are imperfect. It’s frustrating. It’s completely new in Quebec.
“What about people horrified with the niqab? Will that alone lead them to vote Conservative? Not sure.”
Dufour said he expects to see some strange bedfellows as Quebecers indulge in their favourite sport: handicapping leaders and voting strategically.
Federal election campaign signs for the Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle riding. John Mahoney / Montreal Gazette
“There are hard-line sovereignists who are so anti-Harper they are ready to vote Trudeau,” Dufour says.
They might do it despite their visceral dislike for his father, Pierre Trudeau, who became persona-non-grata for many Quebecers after as Liberal prime minister he imposed the War Measures Act in 1970, and later repatriated the Constitution without the consent of the National Assembly.
And what of that last-minute horde of undecided voters, dreaded by political parties and polling firms because they throw forecasts off-kilter?
In many elections, it is they who ultimately determine the result.
According to Léger polling, in the 2011 campaign 30 per cent of Canadians made their ultimate decision the weekend before the election and eight per cent actually made it once they stepped into the voting booth.
Dufour jokingly has this advice for those who can’t make up their minds:
“Take a quarter, say a prayer to the underground gods who govern us, and flip!
“It’s acknowledging that, in politics as in life, chance is a bigger factor then we care to admit.”
Should the NDP blow its chance of forming a government for the first time in Canadian history by losing badly in Quebec, it’s unclear whether Muclair can continue as leader.
As the clock ticks down to Monday’s vote, the NDP has moved into, as it is known in French, the “sauvons les meubles” mode to save the Quebec vote.
It launched an advertising and media blitz, but there have been media reports that that some candidates have stopped going door to door because the niqab is all voters want to talk about.
While party officials concede the Conservatives got a bump out in the Quebec City region after the French-language debate in which the niqab was the dominant issue, they say they are holding their own in other ridings.
They point to an Ekos poll Wednesday that put the NDP back in the lead with 34.1 per cent, compared to 22.3 per cent for the Liberals, 20.6 per cent for the Conservatives and 15.5 per cent for the Bloc.
Other polls say the NDP is dropping while the Liberals are on the rise.
Mulcair has tried to make his niqab position clearer, saying he personally is not at ease with it but that a country has to respect courts rulings that the niqab is legal.
Should the NDP blow its chance of forming a government for the first time in Canadian history by losing badly in Quebec, it’s unclear whether Muclair can continue as leader.
Despite the party running out of gas in Quebec, Mulcair is refusing to say that the Orange Wave of 2011 has dried up, the dream deferred.
Campaigning in the rest of Canada this week, he continues to invite progressives to join those in Quebec. On Thursday, he returned to Quebec with stops in Alma and the Eastern Townships, a clear indication the NDP thinks ridings there are still winnable.
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s momentum continues to grow. Paul Chiasson / The Canadian Press
On the other hand, Trudeau’s momentum continues to grow, with talk among pundits of possible minority or majority Liberal governments.
A Liberal win, or even a solid performance, would signal an end of the party’s long purgatory here, imposed by Quebecers for many years after such events as the sponsorship scandal.
As the Liberal machine started winding down in the final days before the election, most analysts agreed that Trudeau, whom the Conservatives hoped to discredit as “just not ready,” had won the campaign, primarily because he didn’t fumble as his opponents hoped.
Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe’s fate in his own riding appears uncertain. Graham Hughes / The Canadian Press
But what about 68-year-old Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe, wooed out of retirement for the campaign?
A big loss might send him back out to pasture while the Bloc’s results get scrutinized and spun as a sign the independence movement is in a dry dock.
Duceppe’s own fate in the riding of Laurier—Sainte-Marie appears uncertain.
The Bloc’s last pitch to Quebecers was to urge them to come back to the fold because the Bloc — in the event of a Conservative minority — could hold the balance of power in Ottawa. This scenario would return to the Bloc to its traditional role of trying to lever more for Quebec out of whatever party forms the next government.
As for the Conservatives, who had hoped to make gains in the Quebec City area and win at least one seat in Montreal, Mont Royal, the jury is out until Monday.
The 2015 campaign will be remembered in Quebec for several reasons. What started way back in August in apathy ended in the ridiculous as voters mocked the niqab controversy by donning all manner of headgear, from clown faces to flags, during advance polls.
The NDP accused the Liberals of launching a whisper campaign that its candidate in Hull—Aylmer, Nicole Turmel, was near death. Turmel took to airwaves to show she is alive and well.
The campaign also saw new records set in political polling, with three landing a day in some cases, for better or worse.
And just to keep the post-election period lively for Quebecers, the three leaders from this province, Muclair, Trudeau and Duceppe, finally found something they could agree on. They all vowed in the last week of the campaign to overturn a minority Conservative government in Ottawa if the election yields such a result.
That would send voters back to the polls sooner they might like.
Philip Authier, Montreal GazetteMore from Philip Authier, Montreal Gazette
Published on: October 17, 2015 | Last Updated: October 17, 2015 2:22 PM EDT
ST-CHARLES-SUR-RICHELIEU — It’s a sunny fall day in this, the land of the patriots, and Pierre Régimbald is doing what he enjoys — dropping in on his neighbours for a chat.
Having lived here for years, he knows them well, the names of their children, their pets.
It’s that way in this village of 1,700 nestled on the banks of the Richelieu River, the site of a violent battle between the Patriotes and the British in 1837, where the flag of that rebellion still flies and the people are proud Quebec nationalists.
Reminders of history are everywhere in the town of St-Charles-sur-Richelieu, about 50 kilometres east of Montreal. Dave Sidaway / Montreal Gazette
Régimbald will tell you he has a pretty good idea of how people here voted in the 2011 federal election — and which way the wind is blowing this time.
“My 10 neighbours, they were all NDP,” Régimbald tells a roving reporter who stops for a chat. “But that’s all over this time.”
“If only he (Tom Mulcair) had said, ‘Enough.’
“It’s all well and good to be tolerant. Everyone I spoke to thinks the same way. He needed to be clear and firm.”
The “enough” refers to the niqab issue, which roared to life in the federal election campaign that ends Monday.
To hear Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau come down in favour of allowing the niqab to be worn during Canadian citizenship ceremonies was one thing, but to hear New Democratic Party leader Mulcair agree was quite another.
Mulcair’s stance landed with a thud in places like St-Charles, part of the federal riding of Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères where, at least when the campaign started 76 days ago, people were preparing to vote NDP again after making history in the previous federal election.
The Orange Wave swept through this riding, once considered a Bloc Québécois fortress, as the people elected an NDP candidate for the first time.
Now, with the NDP on the defensive in Quebec, it’s unclear which way voters will go. Régimbald and other residents interviewed in St-Charles nearly all said they are undecided.
It’s a vastly different situation than in 2011.
The Orange Wave swept through this riding, once considered a Bloc Québécois fortress, as the people elected an NDP candidate for the first time. And across the province, the election of 58 NDP MPs decimated the Bloc — where Quebecers had been parking their federal votes for years.
In provincial elections three years later, Quebec (including this riding) would experience another shift of the political tectonic plates.
Parti Québécois cabinet minister Pierre Duchesne, now chief of staff to PQ leader Pierre Karl Péladeau, went down in defeat to an unknown right-wing Coalition Avenir Québec candidate in the 2014 provincial election in this same region.
It was the election that brought Liberal leader Philippe Couillard to power, and saw the demise of the PQ government after only 18 months in office.
Again, enterprising reporters stampeded into this riding, grilling the locals, searching for answers: are these changes of allegiance part of a trend, and if so, what does this mean for the sovereignty movement?
And so here we are in 2015; the game’s afoot and the Quebec voting enigma as strong as ever. Where Quebecers choose to park their votes on Oct. 19 is anyone’s guess.
Aside from some loyalists who stuck with the Liberals or Conservatives last time, everybody else had a one-night stand with somebody else four years ago, so it’s tough to predict where they will end up (this time).
Quebec has a history of block voting, with the province regularly giving nearly all of its seats to one party or another over the years.
In 1988 it was the Conservatives under Brian Mulroney that swept into office on a wave. Before that, Pierre Trudeau enjoyed a solid Quebec block of Liberal ridings for years. The Bloc held the majority of seats for six successive elections before falling from grace in 2011.
“I don’t really know what will happen (this time),” says Université de Montréal sociologist and polling expert Claire Durand, who describes Quebec as “dangerous terrain” for any party in any federal vote.
Noting that the most recentpolling data for the provinceshows the NDP and Liberals more or less tied at between 25 per cent and 30 per cent, Durand wonders: “How will those who want to block (Conservative leader Stephen) Harper react?”
Léger pollster Christian Bourque puts it this way:
“Aside from some loyalists who stuck with the Liberals or Conservatives last time, everybody else had a one-night stand with somebody else four years ago, so it’s tough to predict where they will end up (this time).”
Bourque says things have changed since 2011, when a “perfect storm” sent the NDP to victory here and to official opposition status in the House of Commons in Ottawa.
The historic win, Bourque says, was fuelled by three situations that no longer exist.
First, in 2011 Quebecers had run out of reasons to vote Bloc, and were starting to think it was no longer useful to send separatist MPs to Ottawa out of anger over the way the place was being run or how Quebec was being treated in the federation. They instead bought back into the idea that being in the halls of power was more effective.
Second, they developed an affinity for the charismatic Jack Layton. The image of the mustachioed “bon Jack,” whom Quebecers fell in love with after his appearance on the popular talk show Tout le monde en parle, ricocheted around the province — brother to brother-in-law, cousin to cousin, friend to friend.
NDP leader Jack Layton shakes hands of supporters after giving a speech at Théâtre Olympia in Montreal on April 23, 2011. Bryanna Bradley / Montreal Gazette
Finally, in a page yanked from that big strategic voting playbook Quebecers love, many believed the NDP was the only party that could beat the Conservatives.
“This time around, these three conditions don’t really exist,” Bourque says. “If you saw off three legs on a chair, it falls apart. Recreating that perfect storm for the Orange Wave was maybe asking too much.
“It’s not that people don’t like Tom Mulcair; I think he’s respected, but there isn’t that sort of love aspect you got with Jack Layton, and maybe some are discovering (that feeling) late in the campaign with Justin Trudeau.”
Bourque argues that while it’s easy to blame the niqab for the NDP’s problems here, the reason Quebecers have been turning away from the party are more complex.
Many of the ideas the NDP has been campaigning on didn’t wash with Quebec voters.
The party offered $15 daycare to all Canadians, for example, but Quebecers already have a subsidized daycare system. The party talked about zero deficits, but many Quebecers are weary after living under an austerity regime at the provincial level.
Then there was the “Thomas in Quebec vs. Tom in Ontario” debate. Mulcair has been accused of saying one thing in English about the controversial Energy East oil pipeline, while saying something different in French.
Justin Trudeau has the same position on the niqab and yet it has helped him not hurt him, so it can’t be just the niqab itself. – Léger pollster Christian Bourque
“The niqab maybe gave people reasons to look elsewhere or shop around,” Bourque suggests. “Justin Trudeau has the same position on the niqab and yet it has helped him not hurt him, so it can’t be just the niqab itself.
“It was the perfect reason to look elsewhere.”
But there are also be strategic reasons for Quebecers to foresake the NDP. They see what is happening in vote-rich Ontario — where the Liberals now dominate and appear to be the best party to defeat the Conservatives — and so they are jumping on the bandwagon because they, too, want to be rid of Harper and be on the right side of history.
All these factors are at play in the decision-making process.
An election campaign poster in St-Charles-sur-Richelieu. Historically, the riding of Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères has voted for the Bloc Québécois, but switched to the NDP in 2011. Dave Sidaway / Montreal Gazette
Back in the riding of Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères, the niqab issue is on everyone’s lips a week before the vote.
“I liked Mulcair a lot, but he’s tripped and can’t seem to bounce back,” one man says, taking a pause from raking leaves outside his home. “For me, reasonable accommodation works both ways. If you come to this country, at least respect it.
“What would happen if a woman went to the bank to cash a cheque wearing a niqab? The cashier would hit the alarm button.”
A little further north, in one of the two ridings still held by the Bloc in Quebec after riding reconfigurations, which is now called Bécancour—Nicolet-Saurel, Denise is on her way home from the grocery store.
For her, the niqab issue stirs up old wounds, a reminder of the recent divisive debate over the PQ’s ill-fated charter of values.
Her concerns pour out.
“It (the niqab) bothers a lot of people,” she says. “If we let things go on the niqab, they’ll take our place. They’ll invade us and all the churches will go.”
She, too, is undecided about how she will vote.
In the 2011 campaign, 30 per cent of Canadians made their ultimate decision the weekend before the election and eight per cent actually made it once they stepped into the voting booth.
The lucky ones in this campaign, says veteran political analyst and columnist Christian Dufour, are those who vote out of conviction for one party or another with little consideration for Byzantine electoral strategies — including the kind of wedge politics Canadians endured during this campaign.
“They have the satisfaction of being able to vote with their conscience,” Dufour says.
For the rest the exercise can be a tortuous affair, and this campaign has been worse than others.
“The cards are completely jumbled,” Dufour says, sitting in his Mile End flat. “There are four parties in the game. That’s why people don’t know what to do.
“Let’s say you are left but oppose the niqab. Who do you vote for? The Bloc? But many say they are tired of the Bloc. So the choices are imperfect. It’s frustrating. It’s completely new in Quebec.
“What about people horrified with the niqab? Will that alone lead them to vote Conservative? Not sure.”
Dufour said he expects to see some strange bedfellows as Quebecers indulge in their favourite sport: handicapping leaders and voting strategically.
Federal election campaign signs for the Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle riding. John Mahoney / Montreal Gazette
“There are hard-line sovereignists who are so anti-Harper they are ready to vote Trudeau,” Dufour says.
They might do it despite their visceral dislike for his father, Pierre Trudeau, who became persona-non-grata for many Quebecers after as Liberal prime minister he imposed the War Measures Act in 1970, and later repatriated the Constitution without the consent of the National Assembly.
And what of that last-minute horde of undecided voters, dreaded by political parties and polling firms because they throw forecasts off-kilter?
In many elections, it is they who ultimately determine the result.
According to Léger polling, in the 2011 campaign 30 per cent of Canadians made their ultimate decision the weekend before the election and eight per cent actually made it once they stepped into the voting booth.
Dufour jokingly has this advice for those who can’t make up their minds:
“Take a quarter, say a prayer to the underground gods who govern us, and flip!
“It’s acknowledging that, in politics as in life, chance is a bigger factor then we care to admit.”
Should the NDP blow its chance of forming a government for the first time in Canadian history by losing badly in Quebec, it’s unclear whether Muclair can continue as leader.
As the clock ticks down to Monday’s vote, the NDP has moved into, as it is known in French, the “sauvons les meubles” mode to save the Quebec vote.
It launched an advertising and media blitz, but there have been media reports that that some candidates have stopped going door to door because the niqab is all voters want to talk about.
While party officials concede the Conservatives got a bump out in the Quebec City region after the French-language debate in which the niqab was the dominant issue, they say they are holding their own in other ridings.
They point to an Ekos poll Wednesday that put the NDP back in the lead with 34.1 per cent, compared to 22.3 per cent for the Liberals, 20.6 per cent for the Conservatives and 15.5 per cent for the Bloc.
Other polls say the NDP is dropping while the Liberals are on the rise.
Mulcair has tried to make his niqab position clearer, saying he personally is not at ease with it but that a country has to respect courts rulings that the niqab is legal.
Should the NDP blow its chance of forming a government for the first time in Canadian history by losing badly in Quebec, it’s unclear whether Muclair can continue as leader.
Despite the party running out of gas in Quebec, Mulcair is refusing to say that the Orange Wave of 2011 has dried up, the dream deferred.
Campaigning in the rest of Canada this week, he continues to invite progressives to join those in Quebec. On Thursday, he returned to Quebec with stops in Alma and the Eastern Townships, a clear indication the NDP thinks ridings there are still winnable.
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s momentum continues to grow. Paul Chiasson / The Canadian Press
On the other hand, Trudeau’s momentum continues to grow, with talk among pundits of possible minority or majority Liberal governments.
A Liberal win, or even a solid performance, would signal an end of the party’s long purgatory here, imposed by Quebecers for many years after such events as the sponsorship scandal.
As the Liberal machine started winding down in the final days before the election, most analysts agreed that Trudeau, whom the Conservatives hoped to discredit as “just not ready,” had won the campaign, primarily because he didn’t fumble as his opponents hoped.
Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe’s fate in his own riding appears uncertain. Graham Hughes / The Canadian Press
But what about 68-year-old Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe, wooed out of retirement for the campaign?
A big loss might send him back out to pasture while the Bloc’s results get scrutinized and spun as a sign the independence movement is in a dry dock.
Duceppe’s own fate in the riding of Laurier—Sainte-Marie appears uncertain.
The Bloc’s last pitch to Quebecers was to urge them to come back to the fold because the Bloc — in the event of a Conservative minority — could hold the balance of power in Ottawa. This scenario would return to the Bloc to its traditional role of trying to lever more for Quebec out of whatever party forms the next government.
As for the Conservatives, who had hoped to make gains in the Quebec City area and win at least one seat in Montreal, Mont Royal, the jury is out until Monday.
The 2015 campaign will be remembered in Quebec for several reasons. What started way back in August in apathy ended in the ridiculous as voters mocked the niqab controversy by donning all manner of headgear, from clown faces to flags, during advance polls.
The NDP accused the Liberals of launching a whisper campaign that its candidate in Hull—Aylmer, Nicole Turmel, was near death. Turmel took to airwaves to show she is alive and well.
The campaign also saw new records set in political polling, with three landing a day in some cases, for better or worse.
And just to keep the post-election period lively for Quebecers, the three leaders from this province, Muclair, Trudeau and Duceppe, finally found something they could agree on. They all vowed in the last week of the campaign to overturn a minority Conservative government in Ottawa if the election yields such a result.
That would send voters back to the polls sooner they might like.
