NWBO: Once In A Decade Best Stock Investment -- Regulatory Approvals Coming! [Dec10, 2022 在第一页加了中文简述]

Below is the press release about the presentation:

"BETHESDA, Md., May 4, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Northwest Biotherapeutics (OTCQB: NWBO) ("NW Bio"), a biotechnology company developing DCVax® personalized immune therapies for solid tumor cancers, reported that a presentation entitled "Autologous Tumor Lysate-Loaded Dendritic Cell Vaccination for Glioblastoma" will be made on May 10, 2022 at 11:10 a.m., by Dr. Linda Liau at the Frontiers of Cancer Immunotherapy Conference of the New York Academy of Sciences.
This presentation can be viewed virtually by registering online at the Academy's website at https://events.nyas.org/event/28ca5e39-51a7-4e73-be3d-78089c92d596/summary"

Considering the context: 1) Data locked on 5 October 2020, about 19 months ago. Since then, the company has entered quiet period; 2) the company usually doesn't announce presentation in advance, but this time it did; 3) almost all employees of Northwest Bio will be attending, along with some long-term survivors of GBM patients who have been treated with DCVax_L, a great number of NWBO investors ...

And the fact that Dr. Liau's presentation is not planned for this specific conference. Instead it only appeared in the conference website just about two or so weeks ago, initially only her name which was in the last spot while other presenters were ranked in alphabetical order. Obviously her presentation is rushed in in the last minute. There must be reason. Remember the company's goal after data lock is to seeking publication/TLD announcement at the same time or in a short span of time. So maybe until recently Dr. Liau and the company were notified about publication which will be published on a day not publicly known yet, therefore the rush into this presentation at NYAS. At this point nobody knows if it's about TLD or not, but definitely expectation is high.

So maybe the company will file a 8-k this coming Monday or early Tuesday before the presentation regarding the trial results or maybe they don't announce anything before the presentation.

The market on the other hand has definitely expected a significant positive update/TLD will be known either via news release before the presentation and/or at the presentation itself. As a result, the share price has been on a sharp rise in recent days/weeks.

Some other things to consider is the company has been running on fume needing a new financial infusion; it's almost the time to announce annual shareholders meeting according to the law; also remember Dr. Bosch, company CTO will be presenting at ASCO Industry Expert Theater in early June.

Put all these above together, it's reasonable to expect at least a significant update, if not straightly TLD will be announced or talked about, followed shortly by publication.

GL
 
最后编辑:
btw, if you like anecdotes below are two more:

First, inquiry with NYAS re conference re Dr. Liau's presentation or not. The answer from NYAS: expect "exciting update" about DCVax-L trial.
Second, the our good doc Dr. Tim Cloughesy, PI of the DCVax-L and Ketruda combo trial said data will be discussed at NYAS this coming Tuesday:

 
Here you go. According to Dr. C.H. Weaver M.D. updated yesterday:

Long awaited results from the pivotal phase III trial will be released May 10, 2022. at the New York Academy of Science.​

 
Here you go. According to Dr. C.H. Weaver M.D. updated yesterday:

Long awaited results from the pivotal phase III trial will be released May 10, 2022. at the New York Academy of Science.​

 
請問TLD 要多好市場才會滿意。如果30% 存活10年應該已經是miracle 了吧。
 
It will be a comprehensive view around HR (hazard ratio), the median overall survival (less important), and long-term overall survival (most important) at a p-value less than 0.5.

For instance, a hazard ratio of one means that there is no difference in survival between the two groups. A hazard ratio of greater than one or less than one means that survival was better in one of the groups.

The smaller the number of the HR, the better outcome for the treatment arm. For example, a hazard ratio of 0.5 means that half as many patients in the active group (treatment) have an event at any point in time compared with placebo, again proportionately.

I would think a HR less than 0.8 in our case is enough considering DCVax_L has almost no side effects. As for "如果30% 存活10年應該已經是miracle 了吧" IMO, it's indeed a miracle, but in effect in our DCVax-L trial that number may be most likely close to 20% or so. Remember with the current standard of care (SOC), the 5-year survival rate is roughly around 5%.

DCVax-L if successful can only increase OS to some degree. What is the most exciting prospect is that by combining DCVax-L with checkpoint inhibitors (CIs) such as FDA approved Keytruda developed by Merck, etc, a cure for some certain cancers may be achieved.
 
最后编辑:
Dr Liau will not speak tomorrow at 11:10AM?
 
Yes, some investors have contacted the company and were told that she and her son have COVID, and her presentation will be presented by Dr. Paul Mulholland at Frontiers in Cancer Immunotherapy 2022 (NYAS). Dr. Mulholland was a co-author of the 2018 interim results.

NWBO has never been short of "stories." Right now there are rumors flying all the place.

Expect a PR from the company tomorrow morning.
 
One can easily conclude DCVax-L is highly approvable and represents the first major advance in GBM in 17 years.
但是股價就是逆向操作。公司本身Management 真是扶不起來。
 
sentiment_stocks at ihub posted transcription of yesterday's presentation, and stock price movement with each slide of the presentation:
Member Level


Wednesday, May 11, 2022 1:33:59 PM

Re: None


Post# of 471428
Transcription: NYAS New York Academy of Science - DCVax® Phase 3 Final Results
“Autologous Tumor Lysate-Loaded Dendritic Cell Vaccination for Glioblastoma”
Dr. Paul Mulholland, MBBS, MSc, PhD, FRCP
University College Hospital

Please note, below is the transcription of this presentation, as well as the Q&A at the end. I’ve indicated the share price of the stock with every slide as it was presented live, as it seems evident to me that while this very positive presentation of the P3 trial data was taking place, the stock was being severely manipulated downwards.

See this YouTube video - thanks to WorldWideTuber - for posting this.

And if you'd like to watch the full presentation (including the Q&A) without the share price plummeting, here's Dr. Bala's link as well to the event presentation:
http://www.dr-bala.net/NWBO/NYAS2022/NYAStalk2022.mp4

Share price: $1.39
Introduction Slide


Session Host - George Zavoio:
Some people are still filtering in. It’s my distinct pleasure to introduce the next speaker. It’s another virtual presentation. Paul Mulholland from the University College London Hospitals, a medical oncologist, he treats brain cancers exclusively. He’s chair of the cancer care and the CNS tumor board there.

So Paul, I see you’re there, and the title of his talk is “Autologous Tumor Lysate-Loaded Dendritic Cell Vaccination for Glioblastoma.” Paul?

Paul Mulholland:
Thank you. I’d like to say thank you very much to the organizing committee, and also to Linda Liau for asking me to do this presentation. Linda was due to do the presentation today, but unfortunately, she’s unwell.

But I can tell you it’s my absolute privilege to share this data with you. I hope you find it as exciting as I think it is.

Share price: $1.38
Presentation Overview Slide


I’m going to today be presenting the final results from the DCVax-L Phase 3 trial, and discuss with you the innovative trial design, and also share the results.

Share price: $1.38
GBM Is a Particularly Difficult Cancer Slide


GBM Is a Particularly Difficult Cancer Slide
What do we know about glioblastoma? I just want to set the scenery here, because I think without setting the scene, people might not really appreciate the exciting data, the landmark data that I’m about to share with you.

Glioblastoma is an aggressive, primary brain cancer. It hasn’t, so far, responded well to immune therapy. Its class has been immunologically cold. It’s a very difficult tumor when you look at it genetically… extremely heterogeneous, and very, very able to change and devolve and evade treatments. It’s got a very invasive phenotype, and the recurrence rate is approaching 100%, if not 100%. It’s universally fatal, really.

The standard of care is to have surgery, and it’s not possible to take all the tumor out due to glioblastoma being such an invasive tumor. There are always cells left behind. There’s always recurrence, unfortunately. However, the more tumor that’s removed, the better it is for the patient’s survival.

So following surgery, and standard of care (SOC), there’s six weeks of radiotherapy. That’s Monday to Friday, on the brain, five days a week, thirty treatments, along with chemotherapy… and then six months of more chemotherapy. It really is quite a grueling, punishing schedule of treatments to have all that radiotherapy and chemotherapy.

However, unfortunately, it does not give them so much survival advantage. So even with all of that treatment, the average survival is around 15 to 17 months. And tumor recurrence occurs within the first year, and then median overall survival from recurrence is 6 to 10 months.

And when you look at what we might call long-term survivors, which we classify as five years in glioblastoma, that’s actually only 5%. So it really is very difficult disease.

Share price: $1.28
GBM Clinical Trials - Years of Failures; Wide Range of Treatments Tested Slide


And then the question is what can be done about it. Well, there has been a lot of clinical trials in this area. There’s been, if you look at this publication (Neuro-Oncology) from 2016, 18, sorry… there are 417 clinical trials for glioblastoma, and this included nearly 32 thousand patients. And of all of those trials, including sixteen, very big phase three trials, only one showed evidence of efficacy, and that was the tumor treating fields (TTF) device. Since then, there’s been more failure in glioblastoma, so it really has been a real battleground, filled with lots and lots of failure.

Share price: $1.31
GBM Survival Remains Dismal Slide


When we look at the actual treatment itself, the treatment was originally surgery and radiotherapy, and in 2005, it was shown that from a large phase three study that by the addition of chemotherapy Temozolomide, there was an addition of 2.5 months. This actually was really ground-breaking at the time because it showed that actually chemotherapy could make a difference to glioblastoma. And we were very hopeful at this time that actually we could then improve outcomes. But to date, we have not, and there has been no real change, aside from this, in the last 17 years.

There was some data from Gliadel wafers, and these are chemotherapy wafers, that are put in during the surgery. They are not generally used. They don’t have much efficacy. They’re not very popular to use.

Share price: $1.29
DCVax®-L Phase 3 Trial: Innovative Trial Design Slide


But I’m pleased to say that I’m going to share with you the results of the dendritic cell DCVax phase 3 trial
Share price: $1.29
Trial Overview


When you look at the trial itself, what happened to these patients that 331 patients from 94 trial sites in four countries were treated. Patients were all patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma. The patients had surgery, and then the tumor tissue was taken, and sent off to the laboratory, and following this, patients had leukapheresis, and with this, they were able to manufacture dendritic cell vaccination therapy.

The trial was a double blind randomized trial and importantly, had cross over. The trial began a long time ago, back in 2007, and enrollment was suspended between 2008 and 2011. And the reason for the suspension was nothing to do with safety, or any other reasons, it was actually purely for financial reasons. But fortunately, the trial was opened up again, and investigators were enthusiastic to be part of the trial. And from 2012 to 2015, 92% of the patients were enrolled in this study, with the last patient being enrolled in November 2015. And with this trial, it’s been important to wait for the long-term survival data so we can see what effect the immunotherapy has over a long period, because actually, with immunotherapy, we’re looking for what it does for that proportion of patients and their long term survival.

Share price: $1.26
Screening and Enrollment Slide


So this shows the Screening and the Enrollment, and it was actually a very straight forward study for us to treat patients. And the patients were screened, they were enrolled, they had their surgery, the treatment tissue was taken, it was sent off to the laboratory, and then the leukapheresis was done three weeks after the surgery. Once the patient was undergoing chemo/radiation therapy, there was manufacturing of the dendritic cell therapy, and then when this was completed, the patients then had the autologous dendritic cell vaccination just as an intra-dermal injection into the arm. Treatment was given, and alongside the standard temozolomide chemotherapy. And depending upon how much vaccination they were able to make… the patients had their treatment at Day 0, Day 10, Day 20, Months 2, 4, 8 and 12, and then every six months thereafter.

I have to say, from my experience, the treatment was extraordinarily well tolerated and I saw no side effects in any of my patients.

Share price: $1.235
Crossover Design Slide


The trial was a cross over design and the reason for this was because at the time, it was not considered ethical for patients to undergo leukapheresis, which is invasive, and then not have the opportunity to have the vaccine at some point. So it was extremely important that this was included, but this did create difficulty later on. And also opportunity later on.

Share price: $1.18
Progression Free Survival & Pseudo-Progression Slide


Therefore, the original primary endpoints, when the trial was designed, was progression free survival. And at this time, when I think back to then, we weren’t really aware of this concept of pseudo-progression. Pseudo-progression is something that we see and we recognize very clearly now, and it occurs with immunotherapy. It also occurs when patients have radiotherapy and temozolomide chemotherapy. So what happens here is that patients have the treatment, and then if you do a scan at the end of the treatment, it looks like the tumor has grown. But if fact what you’re seeing is swelling and dead tissue and tumor infiltrate with lymphocytes. And actually, there’s a response to treatment and these patients generally do better when they have pseudo-progression.

So therefore, at this time, we didn’t have good imaging to differentiate tumor progression from pseudo-progression, which we do now. So that’s why the progression free survival needed to be removed as the primary outcome measure. And in fact, this is the result from the progression free survival… which isn’t very surprising.

(Note: the share price dropped $0.18 per share at this point, and the slide for PFS had not yet been shown.)

Share price: $1.00
Progression Free Survival Slide


So when you look at progression free survival, and there was no significant difference, between the two patient groups.

Share price: $0.97
Overall Survival Endpoints & External Controls Slide


However, when we look at overall survival, which is obviously what is most important… and this was made the primary endpoint in the study… and included in the statistical analysis plan, prior to the unblinding of the data.

Share price: $0.96
Statistical Analysis Plan Slide


And so when we look at the SAP, we see the primary endpoint was overall survival in the newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients. And what they’ve done is they’ve looked at external controls for this study because 90% of the patients in this study ended up receiving the vaccine… which you’ll see was actually very important for the patients with recurrences. And I’m very pleased that they had the opportunity to have the vaccine.

So 232 patients of the 331 patients had the standard treatment plus the vaccine at newly diagnosed. However, at crossover, 64 patients had recurrent disease also then had the vaccine, so we have the data for the survival for the newly diagnosed and the recurrent patients.

But this then means that we need external controls for the newly diagnosed and the recurrent patients.

Share price: $0.90
External Controls: Sources and Validation Slide


So the external controls needed to be sourced and validated. And they needed to be done independently of the sponsor.

Share price: $0.9195
External Controls: Process & Selection Criteria Slide


So an independent expert firm was appointed to evaluate other glioblastoma patients that were treated in clinical trials. And they were given criteria to match very closely with the patients in this particular study.

Share price: $0.89
External Controls: Validation Slide



I’m just going to show you very briefly how the validation was done, but not discuss it in detail.

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External Controls for nGBM - 5 comparator RCT



External Controls for nGBM - Patient Demographics and Prognostic Factors


When we look at the external controls, we can see that these are very well known and very accepted indications that we used for the external controls for the newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients and also the external controls for the recurrent patients. And you can see how well these patients are matched.

Share price: $0.88
External Controls for rGBM - 10 comparator RCT


External Controls for rGBM - Patient Demographics and Prognostic Factors


And this data will be available later for people to scrutinize but I’ll just show it very briefly.

Share price: $0.888
020221 Study Results Slide


So now we come to the most interesting part of the talk which is actually the study results.

Share price: $0.885
Overall Results Slide
 
continued from the above:


So I’m very, very happy to say that the primary endpoint, the median overall survival in newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients reached statistical significance, as did the secondary endpoint… that is the patients with the recurrent disease who had dendritic cell therapy had improved survival.

The safety profile was excellent. There was 2,193 doses of DCVax administered, only five adverse events were reported, and no significant and immune reaction.

Share price: $0.925
Overall Results - 5 Key Data Points Slide


So the important landmarks are that the median overall survival of patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma was 19.3 months from randomization and 22.4 months from surgery. And this is versus 16.5 months that you would expect normally and we’re seeing in the randomized controls. Methylation of MGMT, which is a good prognostic marker for these patients, showed a very enhanced survival of 30.2 months from randomization versus the normal expected 21.3 months. And what was extremely impressive is that the survival at five years in these patients is 13% versus 5.7%. When we look at the recurrent glioblastoma, the median overall survival was extremely impressive as showing a 13.2 for median overall survival as opposed to the 7.8 expected median overall survival. And even here we see a survival tail at 24 months… we see 20% of patients alive. And at 30 months, 11%, which is much better than you would expect for these patients.

Share price: $0.92
Innovation Slide


So there’s been innovation in this trial, and this had to come about because of the cross over design that was required in this. But this is the first phase three trial of a systemic treatment in seventeen years to show significant extension of median overall survival in newly diagnosed glioblastoma, and the first phase three trial of any treatment in twenty seven years to show a significant extension of median overall survival in recurrent glioblastoma. These are extremely important statements, and are very, very exciting, and really important for this patient group.

And what is particularly important is that this phase three trial shows meaningful increases in long-term survival, both in newly diagnosed and recurrent glioblastoma.

(and the share price drops another $0.03)
Share price: $0.89
Broader Perspective Slide


What’s interesting with this particular treatment is it has little or no toxicity. And it really is suitable for combination with a wide range of other treatments which people can spend a lot of time thinking about: checkpoint inhibitors, oncolytic viruses, cytokines, chemotherapy, etc. And what’s also really exciting is wit this particular technology is that when the patient recurs, and they have further surgery, you can make a new batch with this treatment, and so the targets, so this tumor, evades treatments because it changes. But you can actually just change the treatment with the tumor. And potentially, this works in glioblastoma, so it can actually work in other tumor types. So this is really a very, very exciting technology.

Share price: $0.86
Future Opportunities for Combination Therapies


This slide just looks at how it can be combined, and what people can do with it in the future.

Share price: $0.86
Newly Diagnosed GBM


Overall Survival in Newly Diagnosed GBM Slide

So this shows the overall survival Kaplan Meier curve in the newly diagnosed patients and you can see this is very, very favorable. And you can see very clearly that there’s no cross over… and you can see the long-term survival, which is very impressive for this group of patients.

Share price: $0.878450
Survival Tail in Newly Diagnosed GBM Slide


So these are the important landmark survival rates in the newly diagnosed patients. So at 36 months, you have a 20% survival, 48 months, 15%, and 60 months, five years, you have a 13% survival as compared with what you’d expect normally of around 5%.

Share price: $0.899
Pre-Defined Sub-Groups: Summary Slide


And when we look at the sub-group analysis, you can see here that actually in every sub-group analysis, there’s a favorable outcome. So when you look at age and residual disease, and when you look at this particular marker which is a gene called MGMT, that when it’s methylated, the patients have a favorable outcome. But you can see it’s much more favorable when they have this treatment.

Share price: $0.86
Newly Diagnosed GBM: Age Greater Than or Equal to 65 Slide


This is looking at newly diagnosed glioblastoma, and this morning, this is the first time that I’ve seen this slide. And I am really very, very intrigued, I’m very excited. This shows that this technology which is extraordinarily well-tolerated, is showing an increase in survival in patients over 65. And you’re showing long-term survival in this patient group.

Note: and the share price drops another $0.45 cents per share on that news.

Share price: $0.8151
Newly Diagnosed GBM: Age < 65 Slide


And when we look at the under 65s, these people have a better prognosis generally, but actually, with this technology, it’s actually improved further.

Share price: $0.8103
Newly Diagnosed GBM: Significant Residual Disease Slide


And then when you look at this very poor prognostic factor of significant residual disease, this is really impressive. You’re seeing that this technology, this dendritic cell vaccine, is impacting on this patient group in a way that I would not have predicted. So it’s really very, very interesting.

Share price: $0.8011
Newly Diagnosed GBM: Minimal Residual Disease Slide


Now when you look at the patients with minimal residual disease, there’s also an advantage in survival there.

Share price: $0.80
Newly Diagnosed GBM: MGMT Methylated Slide


And this is the methylated group. This is people with the favorable gene configuration of methylated promoter region of MGMT. And when you look at the five year survival in this group, it starts to look really interesting. And really, there is nothing that could have predicted this survival in this patient group. And it’s so impressive.

(Note: and the share price drops another $0.04 per share!)

Share price: $0.761
Newly Diagnosed GBM: MGMT UnMethylated Slide


And this is the patients that have a very poor prognostic marker of unmethylated promotor region of MGMT. And even they have a survival advantage, even though it’s smaller.

Share price: $0.75
Recurrent GBM Slide


Then we come to the recurrent glioblastoma where really, very little makes an impact. And I would not have anticipated that these patients would have had an impact with dendritic cell therapy.

Share price: $0.722
Overall Survival in Recurrent GBM Slide


But actually, when we look at the overall survival in recurrent glioblastoma, you can see the survival. And if you treat this condition, you’ll see that that is a very favorable survival curve for recurrent glioblastoma.

We’re seeing 13.2 months median overall survival, and we’re seeing a tail, a survival tail, that goes out to five years.

(Note: hello, the share price drops another $0.02)

Share price: $0.70
Survival Tail in Recurrent GBM Slide


And here we can see the landmark data… so in recurrent glioblastoma, six months is a landmark because people aren’t expected to make it six months. But with DCVax-L, their survival is 90%. And at 24 months, 20% survival, which is really very, very impressive. And at 30 months, we’re seeing 11% survival.

Share price: $0.72
Why/How Does DCVax-L Work Slide


So dendritic cell therapy - how does it work?

Share price: $0.744
Key Characteristics of DCVax-L Slide


I think that this audience is probably more familiar with that than a brain tumor audience. It uses the master cells of the immune system: dendritic cells, to mobilize multiple elements within the immune system. The technology that’s used in manufacture of DCVax-L is fully personalized, and it inherently targets antigens which are actually on the patient’s tumor, and fits the patient’s version of the cancer. So it really is a personalized vaccine.

And unlike other technologies, it uses all of the tumor antigens, not just some manufactured peptides, and it makes difficult for tumors to mutate around the antigens that have been targeted.

Share price: $0.7549
Larger Multiplier: Dendritic Cell Activates Hundreds of T Cells, Diverse T Cells & Other Immune Cells Slide


So this just shows a slide on how the dendritic cell, autologous dendritic cells work, and how they multiply and activate these T-cells.

Share price: $0.75
T cells Can Cross the Blood Brain Barrier; T cells Infiltrate Glioblastoma Tumors After DCVax-L Slide


And this is just a slide, so… there’s actually lot of evidence that T-cells cross the blood brain barrier - both in animal models, and also now in humans. And this is some unpublished data from Dr. Liau which shows infiltration of T-cells into glioblastoma tumors in patients who were treated with DCVax-L.

Share price: $0.76995
Conclusions (1) Slide


So in conclusion, this shows the completion of a large phase three trial including 331 patients. It was really a mammoth effort over many years, and I was very, very honored to be part of that journey with all my co-investigators, and with Northwest Bio. There was 94 sites, 70 clinical investigators, four countries… and I think it’s very exciting that we’re seeing practice changing results, not only in newly diagnosed glioblastoma, but also in recurrent glioblastoma.

I can say from personal experience that this vaccine is easily administered, and has a very, very favorable side effect profile.

The use of these external, contemporaneous clinical trials is innovative, and I think it’s been really important for this particular trial, because the patients in this study at recurrence had the vaccine, and the vaccine was effective. Actually, we need these external controls.

And what’s particularly significant is that there is a significant percentage of long-term survivors. And that’s consistent with immune memory effect by the T-cells. And this really can change the natural history of glioblastoma, and I don’t think we’ve really seen that here with any other treatment.

Conclusions (2) Slide


And we’re still looking at the data on this, and I’d only seen some of this data this morning, and I’m really quote overwhelmed by it. That we’re seeing sub-populations that I wouldn’t have anticipated to see benefit. We’re seeing old patients, patients with residual disease… doing really well with this treatment, which is really quite dramatic.

So this treatment is really feasible, because there’s no side effect profile, or very little side effect profile, and it really is possible for this to be rolled out as a treatment around the world. And thinking about how we can use it going forward… of course, we need to think about combination treatments, and we also need to think about what, how is this changing the immune microenvironment. More work is ongoing in that, and I think it’s a very exciting area of research.

Share price: $0.79995
Summary Slide


So in summary, I can say that patients treated with DCVax-L showed a clinically meaningful and statistically significant extension of survival in both newly diagnosed and recurrent glioblastoma. Patients have an excellent safety profile and it’s really noteworthy to see these long tails of survival.

Share price: $0.811
SummaryAcknowledgements Slide


So I’d like to thank Linda Liau for giving me the opportunity to speak today, and I’m sorry that she was unwell to miss the talk, and I know that that will be a regret for her. And also to Dr. Robert Prins, who led the study from UCLA, and to my college, Professor Ashkan, at Kings College, and to all my colleagues who are investigators, and sub-investigators, and the trial steering committee (Professor Steven Brem - UPenn, Dr. Jian Campaign, Washing U, now Mayo Clinic, Dr. Fabio Iwamoto, Columbia University, and Dr. John Trusheim, Allina Health), and of course, to all the patients and their families who participated in this landmark study.

So I’d be very happy to answer some questions now, if anybody has any.

Q&A
Session Host - George Zavoio:
Well, thank you very much for a very, very interesting presentation. Congratulations on the survival benefits that you’ve seen in these patients. The floor’s now open for questions. We’re going to do about five minutes of questions, so… David?

David Reardon:
Hey Paul, it’s Dave Reardon from Boston. Congratulations, a really wonderful study and great work. Did you find out about the IDH status of the patients who enrolled, what about steroid use for patients who enrolled, and why you might anticipate the unmethylated patients didn’t benefit? Was there maybe some synergy with chemotherapy that caused immunogenic cell death and enhanced antigen priming or some other reason why the patients who got chemo seemed to have a preferential benefit?

Dr. Mulholland:
Yeah, it’s really quite interesting. So the IDH status… of course, it wasn’t stratified for them because we didn’t have this IDH status at that time, but we do have the have the data on the steroid use. Steroids were used and permitted in the study, but they were limited to less than four milligrams. And then the question about the unmethylated patients… it really is interesting, and you’re quite right, that’s the conclusion that we’ve drawn… that there must be some synergy with the temozolomide where the temozolomide is active in these patients.

But, yeah, it’s interesting, and I’m not sure we can explain all the results, but it’s great to see them.

Session Host - George Zavoio:
David, Marnix Bosch from Northwest Bio would like to add something to that answer.

Marnix Bosch:
Thanks, and thanks for the question.
Actually, the number of IDH mutations was, I think, seven patients out of 331, which is lower than what you saw in the comparator groups.

(Note: the average percentage is 7 to 10%… so to have been even comparable, there would have been 23 to 31 patients ... and of course, there were less IDH mutated in the DCVax-L trial.)

So that doesn’t contribute to the results that we’re seeing.
The question about methylation versus unmethylation I think is very interesting, and sort of raises speculation as to how this treatment can best be combined with other treatments. An answer to that would be more speculative to that than anything else, and right now, it’s an interesting observation… I agree with you.

Share price: $0.83
David Reardon:
The study, as you indicated Paul, really is quite innovative and sets a potential precedent for the use of these external control groups which many studies are now incorporating, to a degree, and will make randomized trials much more easy to do, much more readily doable, but… was there any kind of validation, I wonder, within this study, of patients who enrolled to show a survival benefit of the, outside of the external controls, because usually when we bring external controls in, there’s kind of an internal group of controls where there’s a validation, and then you expand that with the externals. Here, the control group is really consisting exclusively of the external controls. So for example, for patients who progressed, who got vaccine versus those who didn’t, was there survival benefit for the patients before cross over, or amongst the patients who didn’t cross over, maybe? Was any kind of… could you tease out anything from the internal control patients to support the results for the external control validation? Do you mind making that clear at all?

Paul Mulholland:
I think maybe Marnix, if you could comment on that.

Marnix Bosch:
There was quite a bit of validation of the external control arm controls, actually. One thing we did is we compared the treatment arm of all the trials that were selected for comparison against external controls, and asked the question whether the results compared to external controls in those trials were consistent the ones that were originally observed for studies. As you know, almost all of those studies, except one, the Stupp trial for the Optune device, were negative. And if you compared the treatment arms of those studies to the external controls, you get exactly the same result. So I think that’s a very important comparison. Another thing, we did several sensitivity analyses. We did what’s called an MAIC (Matched Adjusted Indirect Comparison) where you even more closely than… so the populations were already quite well matched in terms of prognostic factor and demographics, which are never perfectly matched, but you can then go back, and more and better match your population to the control population which reduces statistical power. But if you do that, then you maintain a significant positive outcome.

Then there was another series of sensitivity analyses that we did… just to give you an example… one was called “leave one out” analyses, where subsequently, you move one study from the external control cohort and again, the results were completely identical.

Then there was one other test that we did, because two of the trials did not specify clearly to the comparator trials in newly diagnosed GBM… the two Gilbert trials… did not specify specifically whether they removed patients with recurrent disease, and from eligibility, recurrent disease, early recurrence at both chemo/radiation. So we removed those two from the comparison as another sensitivity analysis… that also did not change the result.

So that does give you a sense of the rigor that we went through to validate these comparisons.

Thanks for that question.

Share price: $0.7868
Paul Mulholland:
Thank you Marnix.

Someone:
Hi, really interesting to see you’ve got data from external controls here. Question I have is I see there were about 1400 patients in your external control. Did you find that you had non-missing data from all the 1400 patients which is what the FDA generally requires?

Share price: $0.808
Marnix Bosch:
We were, of course, dependent upon what was published. And so you extract individual patient… you reconstruct individual patient data form the published Kaplain Meier plots. Now fortunately, those trials were described in very great detail, both including demographics, etc. I think in terms of the quality of the comparison cohort, it really couldn’t have been any better, which was really the result of the other studies that were really well executed.

Same Someone:
So this was mostly a comparison to a historical control, rather than individual patient by patient matching using propensity scoring for statistical analysis.

Marnix Bosch:
Well, there was not propensity scoring because for that you need actual patient data and those have not been made available for comparison. I think that’s something that we should address in the future, that actually should be done. But these trials can be even more rigorous than they already were. I wouldn’t call them “historical” controls because they were from contemporaneous trials. They were conducted at the same time, roughly, and comparable institutions of the same quality with very much the same parameters.

So that, I think, underscores the validity of this approach.

Share price: $0.8101
Same Someone:
Thank you.

Another Person:
Clarifying question about site of vaccination. This is sub-dermal, or intra-dermal vaccination right, not intra-tumoral?

Marnix Bosch:
Intradermal.

Same Another Person:
Okay. And do you, there’s potential, because the site of vaccination is very important on, whether it be oncolytic viruses or dendritic cell vaccines… what’s your thought on what your (garbled) would be?

Marnix Bosch:
Yeah… we had a lot of talk about that. And we put this in the upper arm, sort of thinking in a very simplistic way that the closer you put it to the tumor, the more effective it will be (laughing). But often I say you can probably put it in the big toe and it won’t make any difference, as long as the dendritic cells can get to a lymphoid organ, probably a lymph node, right? It can interact with T-cells. Those T-cells travel anywhere through the body, and actually make it to the tumor site, no matter where they are induced.

Same Another Person:
We had talks about intratumoral injections for the vaccines, and that looks like a palatable pathway.

Marnix Bosch:
That would be a completely different presentation.

Share price: $0.7901
Session Host - George Zavoio:
We have one more limited… one more… from (garbled)? Lemme do that first… give virtual attendees a chance.

The most popular question of our virtual audience is what is the process for FDA approval now?

Marnix Bosch:
We really can’t speak to that. It will be no different than for any other treatment.

Session Host - George Zavoio:
One more question.

Yet Another Person (Drr. Stephen Brem?):
Yeah, I wanted to answer David’s (Reardon) question… and congratulate Paul Mulholland, the Northwest Bio team. Without being self-congratulatory… full disclosure… I’m one of the seventy authors, and we’ve been waiting for an advance like this for a long time.

David, in addition to the external controls and the numbers, we have some unpublished data from (garbled Penn?) and Dr. Mulholland’s team has been looking at radiological markers, and we’ll present that in June. That will obviously add to the story in terms of using each patient as a control, and having another dimension of efficacy. Thank you.

Share price: $0.754
Session Host - George Zavoio:
Alright… thank you very much. We went a little bit over on time, but I think that this is an important presentation that generated very interesting questions.

Additional Notes:
After having transcribed this presentation, and having added where the share price was as Dr. Mulholland presented the data with each slide (again, a hearty thanks to this WorldWideTuber YouTube video featuring the share price presented live next to the presentation), one can see the obvious manipulation taking place with the share price to paint the results as if they were poor.

The closing share price from the day before this presentation on May, 9, 2022 was $1.82. The share price opened at $1.71 and without any presentation of the data (Dr. Mulholland had not said a word, and the slide deck had not been posted). When Dr. Mulholland actually began speaking, and when the slide deck was posted on Musella Website, the share price was already at $1.39

So nothing had been made public and the share price had slid by $0.43 per share before the presentation, and before the slide deck had been made public.

Halting the Stock During the Presentation
After seeing the trading share price of the stock as excellent news was released, I’d enquired of the company as to whether they’d anticipated a possible volatile reaction to trading the stock when the presentation had begun.

They told me that they most definitely were concerned about something like this happening. And apparently, and much deliberation, they spent considerable time and effort before Tuesday attempting to get a halt applied to the stock prior to and during the presentation. They mobilized their very reputable OTC and FINRA experts, their legal counsel, and made multiple attempts with the senior levels of FINRA to have a halt enacted, but unfortunately, were unsuccessful in their attempts.
 
My conversation this morning with a former pharm CEO, executive of multiple biotech companies, currently a consultant in pharmaceutical industry, going by the name of Hodag regarding the question raised by JerryC, a wall Street Fund manager: [Hodag is a long-term bear of NWBO, has persistently shown his knowledge, experience although biased.]

Jerryc:

presentation slides​


See page 19 labeled "External Controls for nGBM"

I have a ton of experience in stats, but not medical stats, so I'd welcome other voices.

There are 5 comparator trials. There are a number of gaps in data, so a few items are clearly meaningless. Both IDH-1 and Res. Disease only have data from one other paper, so let's ignore those.

KPS score has data from 4 of 5 papers. nwbo's trial is 5% higher than the comparators. You would expect the nwbo patients to do better.

MGMT methylation data is present for all 5 comparators, with an average of 32%. nwbo data is 39%. Again, favorable for the nwbo population.

Tumor resection data is present for 4 of the 5 comparators. The 3 earlier trials are in the range of 54% to 59% complete resection. The one small recent paper shows 74%. Seems like a trend in improved surgical techniques, which correlates with favorable outcomes. Overall, the comparator group has 57% total resection versus 63% for nwbo.

All three of these data points are tilted in nwbo's favor, so this is far from apples to apples.

If this leaps out at me as a stats-competent non-medical person, I assume that any regulator would want to see an analysis to see how much is explained by those factors alone.

Hodag:

Jerry, you can't look at raw numbers and draw a conclusion. You need to look at the averages plus and minus their error ranges to see if they overlap. This is done for you on slide 31 where it shows the hazard ratios. Hazard ratios show the relative risk of being treated with Drug A or Drug B.

The way to read this chart is that if the length of the horizontal line overlaps the vertical dashed line (where the ratio is 1), then the measured benefit is within the range of likely error and, given the way the comparator group was cobbled together, if the horizontal line even comes close to the vertical, that factor will probably not be significant either. 5 of 6 measures cross or come very close to the vertical line, which means that those 5 measures have approximately the same risk between DCVax and the comparator group.

So, what are those results? Two factors (minimal residual disease and MGMT unmethylated) clearly intersect the vertical, meaning that the result is not significant with a 95% CI. Three more lines (Age >65, Age < 65, and MGMT methylated) are essentially intersecting the vertical with values of 0.99, 0.98, and 1.00, respectively). Those would be a hard sell to FDA in an approval setting absent a confirmatory trial.

The final factor, significant residual disease, shows a benefit for DCVax (midpoint estimate 0.65 with a range of 0.48-0.87, that is clearly different from 1.00). That benefit could be due to the immunomodulation provided by the vaccine, a better surgical debulking of the tumor, or a combination of the two.

In the final analysis, does DCVax provide an incremental benefit over the comparator group? Probably it does, but the benefit is marginal. Do these results present a case for having the drug approved as is? Probably not. Can this drug still be approved following a confirmatory trial or a combination trial? Plausibly yes, but that extends the approval date by at least 3-4 years and requires additional clinical work.

Note that while these results are not enough for FDA or EMA approval, but they may be helpful to marketing in countries (like Germany) where no marketing license is required for autologous therapies. Whether the marketing claims this data support are adequate to have an economically sustainable business is a different question.

Me:

You seem very knowledgeable but once again why cannot you see the forest for the trees. Yes you did see some one-off points (a few trees--the HR 0.99, 0.98, and 1.00 from the three charts you interested) but forget the forests (the general, clear separations of curves--overwhelmingly more representative HR 0.63, 0.78, 0.74 respectively).

Note: the reference here are data of those patients who were treated with the best of care or standard of care. Not because an one-off point which is within the calculating error or even it's true, the FDA would be too scared to do its job.

BTW, FDA would look at the whole picture besides HR and p-values which clearly show efficaciousness, but various other factors: some will come when the publication is released, some like "failed" PFS which in the eye of any un-biased, knowledgeable person and FDA is a clear sign of DCVax-L is working, and the other clear and beautiful separation of DCVax-L for rGBM compared with control with HR 0.58 and P-value <0.001.

One other "forest": Over the past 17 years there have not been any trials but DCVax-L trial which has showed significant improvement in patients OS in nGBM, and over the past 27 years there have been no any trials but DCVax-L trial which has showed significant improvement in patients OS in rGBM.

So you want to delay this vaccine to be approved, and add many more years to the unnecessary human suffering? Or you want a big pharm of your association or not to take over this company cheap?

Disclaimer: I am a long-term investor holding well over seven-figure of NWBO shares. Just on the day of presentation on 10May 2022, I added well over six-figure of shares, with first batch in the range of $1.2-$1.3, and the second larger batch in the range of $0.3-$0.4. Part of the purchase was funded by my selling of about 10% of my holding days before the presentation.

Hodag:

Dan, I am looking at the forest and from the FDA's perspective there are a couple of giant redwoods standing between NWBO and approval. I have taken multiple products through regulatory processes in the US, Europe, and elsewhere, and I know what kind of things the agencies ask about and what statistical arguments they accept, and which draw all manner of skepticism. I have gone into more than one regulatory meeting with better stats than these and left those meetings battered, bruised, and bleeding. In particular, the level of scrutiny the regulators apply when applying for permission to conduct a trial is orders of magnitude less than what they do when a company applies for a full marketing authorization.

If you are so confident that NWBO has a slam-dunk approval decision waiting based on this data, then by all means invest your life savings. This is still a free country.

Me:
I love free country, and believe the collective wisdom (more) than any individual ones.

Look at what setting we are in. For nGBM, let alone rGBM there merely 2-month or 1.5-month of improvement in OS in the past had got drugs approved, which happened decade or if not decades ago.

It's simple do you believe DCVax-L is safe, does it demonstrate some officiousness [efficacy] for the indication concerned.

Guess, the first is a check, the second I say yes and of course you say no.

After all, it's RAs which will make the decision.

My investment is based on I do believe DCVax-L will get approved, at least in other countries if not in US, for at least nGBM or rGBM.

If that happens, a floodgate is open for other good things to follow.

thank you for your comments. Not intended to offend anyone else in this board, you are the only one I read when I come to this board from time to time.

[No further replies from Hodag as of now]

To end this post, let me cite a tweet of an oncologist in reply to the small biotech hitman AF after some exhausted coversation with the ignorant, political science majored AF:

StevenToms11
@Toms11Steven
Replying to
@adamfeuerstein
and
@MidwestHedgie

"Repeating your lies do not make them truths. In all of your clinical experience Dr. Feuerstein can you point me to all of your long term survivors who got another therapy and lived this long? Just one that was not IDH1 mutant please. I will wait"

Of course no further reply from the hitman AF.
 
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