- 注册
- 2003-04-13
- 消息
- 238,942
- 荣誉分数
- 37,371
- 声望点数
- 1,393
Andrew Scheer当选为加拿大保守党领袖
- 主题发起人 ccc
- 开始时间
- 注册
- 2003-04-13
- 消息
- 238,942
- 荣誉分数
- 37,371
- 声望点数
- 1,393
- 注册
- 2003-04-13
- 消息
- 238,942
- 荣誉分数
- 37,371
- 声望点数
- 1,393
focus on today
资深人士
- 注册
- 2009-02-03
- 消息
- 4,673
- 荣誉分数
- 668
- 声望点数
- 223
- 注册
- 2003-04-13
- 消息
- 238,942
- 荣誉分数
- 37,371
- 声望点数
- 1,393
Analysis
'It's not in the bag': Why frontrunner Bernier isn't a lock to win Conservative leadership
'It will be interesting to see how that math plays out,' rival camp says
By Janyce McGregor, CBC News Posted: May 14, 2017 5:00 AM ET Last Updated: May 14, 2017 10:50 AM ET
Kevin O'Leary shook up the Conservative leadership race last month when the presumptive front-runner suddenly dropped out and announced he would endorse his top rival, Maxime Bernier, instead. But Bernier's not a lock to win either. (Nathan Denette/Canadian Press)
After a year of campaigning, Maxime Bernier appears to have out-polled and out-fundraised his 12 remaining rivals for the Conservative leadership.
He's in a great position. But it might not be enough to win on May 27.
"No, no — it is not in the bag," Bernier said in response to suggestions from the media that the race was his to win after Kevin O'Leary not only dropped out, but endorsed him.
"We have to work."
Front-runners say that. Complacent voters don't turn out for foregone conclusions. Better to motivate supporters with the fear of losing.
But that fear may be legitimate in this race.
'Unpollable'
Public opinion researchers have tried to predict the outcome by contacting Conservatives off the party's evolving membership list, surveying party donors or tapping people who call themselves Conservatives in national surveys.
But even sampling the final membership list has its difficulties. Several camps say it's missing accurate phone numbers and e-mail addresses. Many eligible voters are unreachable.
"It might be unpollable," said Darell Fowlie, who's working on Lisa Raitt's campaign.
Lisa Raitt's candidacy has been hindered by her lack of French. But the former cabinet minister has strong support in Atlantic Canada and Ontario. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)
That might be an unsurprising opinion from a campaign that's behind. And knocking pollsters for their predictions is a familiar political pastime.
But Fowlie has a point. Each constituency carries equal weight, but conducting riding-level polls in all 338 would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.
"No one's doing that, I can tell you that much," said Michael Diamond, who works on Kellie Leitch's team.
Conservatives who provided their phone numbers have been bombarded with calls from the party, pollsters and rival camps. Some report as many as three or four calls a night. Have some just stopped answering?
Fowlie said he looked into the methodology of one automated poll that had Chris Alexander unusually high, he thought. Candidates were suggested in alphabetical order ("Press 1 for Chris Alexander, Press 2 for Maxime Bernier..."), and he wondered if some respondents just hit one to get off the phone.
The number of eligible voters in this race, over 259,000, significantly exceeded expectations. But the party won't confirm how many memberships each candidate submitted.
Strategists across several campaigns suggest as many as 80,000 signed up independently, meaning they're free agents.
Then there's the 30,000-plus that O'Leary's team claimed to have signed up. Will they follow his suggestion to back Bernier? Or will they just not vote?
Andrew Scheer's camp believes that he'll place second on the first ballot and has the best chance of beating Bernier thanks to his strong second- and third-choice support. (Nathan Denette/Canadian Press)
"Now that this race has been thrown open by his departure, members of the party can now vote with their hearts," said Melanie Paradis, who's working for Erin O'Toole. "They don't have to feel that they have to vote for one particular person that they want to go up against O'Leary."
Rival camps concede that Bernier appeals to many new members. But several feel long-time party members are more likely to vote.
Only one in three cast a vote in the 2004 Conservative leadership race.
"We need to have a higher turnout than last time," Bernier has said.
Early indications of how many ballots have been returned aren't expected until Monday, when officials start opening envelopes and checking voter names off the master list at the Deloitte Canada offices in Vaughan, Ont.
Issues motivate, but polarize
"Certain camps probably have more motivated bases than others," said Chisholm Poitier, a Michael Chong spokesman.
Those backing Chong, Bernier and Leitch, in particular, may turn out for policy or ideological reasons, he said.
"I kind of suspect the bases of all the other camps would have lower turnouts," Poitier said. "I don't sense the enthusiasm or the excitement in some of those camps."
Michael Chong has staked out unique policy ground in the race, including being the only candidate to champion a carbon tax, something Conservatives campaigned against in the past. (Fred Chartrand/Canadian Press)
Issue-oriented campaigns can be polarizing, however.
"Once you become the focus, people either like it or they don't," Andrew Scheer's strategist Hamish Marshall said.
Scheer and O'Toole have the most endorsements from caucus members. Their campaigns are seen as friendly to the Conservative establishment.
When the race began last year, party memberships had dropped below 100,000. Newcomers, if they turn out, could outnumber the party's base, and that makes things tough to predict.
Campaigns are using the same kind of voter identification tools parties use in general elections. Scrutineers start tracking who's voted next week.
Kellie Leitch has spent a lot of time talking about a polarizing issue: more screening for newcomers to Canada. While her policy positions could be seen as polarizing, her strategists say they speak to a broad base of Conservative supporters who will be motivated to vote. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)
The Leitch campaign, which originally flagged the 1,351 improper memberships struck by the party last March, says it's committed to making sure no questionable ballots count.
No vote-splitting
"We won't win on the first ballot," Bernier admits. But if he gets more than 35 per cent, he'll be hard to catch.
If he's lower, and someone like Scheer or O'Toole is within striking distance (between five and ten points back), Bernier's in trouble, other camps predict.
Voters can mark up to ten choices, but some may mark only one and become "dead" when their candidate drops off.
If many rounds are required for someone to get a majority, Marshall, from Scheer's camp, predicts the leader may be decided by a small share of the original vote.
Several camps predict overlapping support between Chong, Raitt, O'Toole and possibly Scheer.
O'Toole has said his second choice would be Raitt, while Raitt has said her second choice would be Scheer.
"It will be interesting to see how that math plays out, once we get down to the final four ... how those votes start getting redistributed," said Paradis from O'Toole's team.
Erin O'Toole, seen here speaking to the CBC in Whitehorse last week, has emphasized his military background during his campaign. He's popular among current members of the Conservative caucus, but it's hard to say how much that translates into grassroots votes. (Philippe Morin/CBC)
As candidate Brad Trost reminded his supporters in a recent email: "You can't split the vote."
But endorsing a second choice — like Trost has — is like saying you won't win.
Unlike conventions, which can inspire "cult-like" follower behaviour in delegates, it's "silly" to think candidates could direct second choices on confidential mail-in ballots, Leitch organizer Diamond said.
Campaigns must focus now on turning out not just first-choice supporters, but also second and subsequent-choice supporters — but only if those voters' top choices are likely to drop off first.
Don't count out Bernier. But don't count on him, either.
'It's not in the bag': Why frontrunner Bernier isn't a lock to win Conservative leadership
'It will be interesting to see how that math plays out,' rival camp says
By Janyce McGregor, CBC News Posted: May 14, 2017 5:00 AM ET Last Updated: May 14, 2017 10:50 AM ET
Kevin O'Leary shook up the Conservative leadership race last month when the presumptive front-runner suddenly dropped out and announced he would endorse his top rival, Maxime Bernier, instead. But Bernier's not a lock to win either. (Nathan Denette/Canadian Press)
After a year of campaigning, Maxime Bernier appears to have out-polled and out-fundraised his 12 remaining rivals for the Conservative leadership.
He's in a great position. But it might not be enough to win on May 27.
"No, no — it is not in the bag," Bernier said in response to suggestions from the media that the race was his to win after Kevin O'Leary not only dropped out, but endorsed him.
"We have to work."
Front-runners say that. Complacent voters don't turn out for foregone conclusions. Better to motivate supporters with the fear of losing.
But that fear may be legitimate in this race.
'Unpollable'
Public opinion researchers have tried to predict the outcome by contacting Conservatives off the party's evolving membership list, surveying party donors or tapping people who call themselves Conservatives in national surveys.
But even sampling the final membership list has its difficulties. Several camps say it's missing accurate phone numbers and e-mail addresses. Many eligible voters are unreachable.
"It might be unpollable," said Darell Fowlie, who's working on Lisa Raitt's campaign.
Lisa Raitt's candidacy has been hindered by her lack of French. But the former cabinet minister has strong support in Atlantic Canada and Ontario. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)
That might be an unsurprising opinion from a campaign that's behind. And knocking pollsters for their predictions is a familiar political pastime.
But Fowlie has a point. Each constituency carries equal weight, but conducting riding-level polls in all 338 would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.
"No one's doing that, I can tell you that much," said Michael Diamond, who works on Kellie Leitch's team.
Conservatives who provided their phone numbers have been bombarded with calls from the party, pollsters and rival camps. Some report as many as three or four calls a night. Have some just stopped answering?
Fowlie said he looked into the methodology of one automated poll that had Chris Alexander unusually high, he thought. Candidates were suggested in alphabetical order ("Press 1 for Chris Alexander, Press 2 for Maxime Bernier..."), and he wondered if some respondents just hit one to get off the phone.
The number of eligible voters in this race, over 259,000, significantly exceeded expectations. But the party won't confirm how many memberships each candidate submitted.
Strategists across several campaigns suggest as many as 80,000 signed up independently, meaning they're free agents.
Then there's the 30,000-plus that O'Leary's team claimed to have signed up. Will they follow his suggestion to back Bernier? Or will they just not vote?
Andrew Scheer's camp believes that he'll place second on the first ballot and has the best chance of beating Bernier thanks to his strong second- and third-choice support. (Nathan Denette/Canadian Press)
"Now that this race has been thrown open by his departure, members of the party can now vote with their hearts," said Melanie Paradis, who's working for Erin O'Toole. "They don't have to feel that they have to vote for one particular person that they want to go up against O'Leary."
Rival camps concede that Bernier appeals to many new members. But several feel long-time party members are more likely to vote.
Only one in three cast a vote in the 2004 Conservative leadership race.
"We need to have a higher turnout than last time," Bernier has said.
Early indications of how many ballots have been returned aren't expected until Monday, when officials start opening envelopes and checking voter names off the master list at the Deloitte Canada offices in Vaughan, Ont.
Issues motivate, but polarize
"Certain camps probably have more motivated bases than others," said Chisholm Poitier, a Michael Chong spokesman.
Those backing Chong, Bernier and Leitch, in particular, may turn out for policy or ideological reasons, he said.
"I kind of suspect the bases of all the other camps would have lower turnouts," Poitier said. "I don't sense the enthusiasm or the excitement in some of those camps."
Michael Chong has staked out unique policy ground in the race, including being the only candidate to champion a carbon tax, something Conservatives campaigned against in the past. (Fred Chartrand/Canadian Press)
Issue-oriented campaigns can be polarizing, however.
"Once you become the focus, people either like it or they don't," Andrew Scheer's strategist Hamish Marshall said.
Scheer and O'Toole have the most endorsements from caucus members. Their campaigns are seen as friendly to the Conservative establishment.
When the race began last year, party memberships had dropped below 100,000. Newcomers, if they turn out, could outnumber the party's base, and that makes things tough to predict.
Campaigns are using the same kind of voter identification tools parties use in general elections. Scrutineers start tracking who's voted next week.
Kellie Leitch has spent a lot of time talking about a polarizing issue: more screening for newcomers to Canada. While her policy positions could be seen as polarizing, her strategists say they speak to a broad base of Conservative supporters who will be motivated to vote. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)
The Leitch campaign, which originally flagged the 1,351 improper memberships struck by the party last March, says it's committed to making sure no questionable ballots count.
No vote-splitting
"We won't win on the first ballot," Bernier admits. But if he gets more than 35 per cent, he'll be hard to catch.
If he's lower, and someone like Scheer or O'Toole is within striking distance (between five and ten points back), Bernier's in trouble, other camps predict.
Voters can mark up to ten choices, but some may mark only one and become "dead" when their candidate drops off.
If many rounds are required for someone to get a majority, Marshall, from Scheer's camp, predicts the leader may be decided by a small share of the original vote.
Several camps predict overlapping support between Chong, Raitt, O'Toole and possibly Scheer.
O'Toole has said his second choice would be Raitt, while Raitt has said her second choice would be Scheer.
"It will be interesting to see how that math plays out, once we get down to the final four ... how those votes start getting redistributed," said Paradis from O'Toole's team.
Erin O'Toole, seen here speaking to the CBC in Whitehorse last week, has emphasized his military background during his campaign. He's popular among current members of the Conservative caucus, but it's hard to say how much that translates into grassroots votes. (Philippe Morin/CBC)
As candidate Brad Trost reminded his supporters in a recent email: "You can't split the vote."
But endorsing a second choice — like Trost has — is like saying you won't win.
Unlike conventions, which can inspire "cult-like" follower behaviour in delegates, it's "silly" to think candidates could direct second choices on confidential mail-in ballots, Leitch organizer Diamond said.
Campaigns must focus now on turning out not just first-choice supporters, but also second and subsequent-choice supporters — but only if those voters' top choices are likely to drop off first.
Don't count out Bernier. But don't count on him, either.
focus on today
资深人士
- 注册
- 2009-02-03
- 消息
- 4,673
- 荣誉分数
- 668
- 声望点数
- 223
还没有投票的，请注意按程序做，1选票填好封好，2claim form 要签名，3ID复印件，然后把以上三样一起装进回执信封(邮资已付)，寄出。
focus on today
资深人士
- 注册
- 2009-02-03
- 消息
- 4,673
- 荣誉分数
- 668
- 声望点数
- 223
加拿大联邦保守党党领推荐
无名 04/27 1051
4.8/4
联邦保守党党领选举在即，面对自由党杜鲁多政府的浪费腐败、限制言论自由、放开大麻、放任犯罪等损害加拿大利益的行为 ，我们需要一个积极、稳健的保守党政府 。
为了我们共同的未来，建议您按照如下顺序填写选票（加拿大的命运将掌握在我们手上的选票里 ）:
Brad Trost：第一选项
5届连任国会议员，加拿大传统价值观的坚定保卫者，坚持废除大麻合法、坚持传统家庭理念、保卫加拿大安全和生活方式（对M-103动议“伊斯兰恐惧症”、C-16同厕法案和C-309“性别自认平等周”等邪恶动议和恶法都投了反对票）。
Pierre Lemieux：第二选项
加拿大传统价值观的坚定保卫者，是跟Brad Trost的价值观和政治理念完全一致的战略同盟。
中间3-10任意选择，可以写也可以不写。
其他候选人简介
Andrew Scheer
对M103和C-16都投了反对票。未出席对C-309男女性别自认投票。他自己有5个孩子，不喜欢大麻，但认为如果大麻已经合法了，就很难再改变了，就让它继续合法。他不准备反对任何已经合法的恶法，包括安乐死，大麻合法化，同婚，堕胎.......等。他担心中国的国营企业、工业间谍、人权纪录和专政制度，反对和中国自由贸易。曾在最自由派的Kevin O退选时寻求Kevin的支持。
Michael Chong庄文浩
唯一支持M103“伊斯兰恐惧症”，支持C-16同厕和C-309自认性别，极端自由派，某些宗教人士加入保守党就是希望让他做代言人，参加同性恋大游行，是LGBT主推的候选人。
Maxime Bernier
54岁，投票支持C-16, 支持同婚同厕，参加同性恋大游行，支持自认性别，是LGBT推荐候选人，对大麻合法目前持模棱两可态度，极左派商人Kelvin O’leary退出竞选后支持MB, 可见两人立场之近。（KO支持大麻合法，支持堕胎，支持LGBT，支持性别自认，支持同厕）。
Kellie Leitch
46岁，弃权C-16同厕，支持自认性别，参加同性恋大游行，是LGBT推荐的候选人。
Lisa Raitt
49岁， 支持C-16同厕，支持自认性别，参加同性恋大游行，是LGBT推荐的候选人，缺席M-103动议投票。如果大麻合法化，她不会废止。
Deepak Obhrai
坦桑尼亚出生的印度裔66岁，曾任国会秘书，信仰Hindu，支持C-16, 弃权C-309。
Chris Alexander
支持引进大量穆斯林难民，支持C-16同厕法案，支持同婚，参加同性恋大游行，支持大麻合法化。
无名 04/27 1051
4.8/4
联邦保守党党领选举在即，面对自由党杜鲁多政府的浪费腐败、限制言论自由、放开大麻、放任犯罪等损害加拿大利益的行为 ，我们需要一个积极、稳健的保守党政府 。
为了我们共同的未来，建议您按照如下顺序填写选票（加拿大的命运将掌握在我们手上的选票里 ）:
Brad Trost：第一选项
5届连任国会议员，加拿大传统价值观的坚定保卫者，坚持废除大麻合法、坚持传统家庭理念、保卫加拿大安全和生活方式（对M-103动议“伊斯兰恐惧症”、C-16同厕法案和C-309“性别自认平等周”等邪恶动议和恶法都投了反对票）。
Pierre Lemieux：第二选项
加拿大传统价值观的坚定保卫者，是跟Brad Trost的价值观和政治理念完全一致的战略同盟。
中间3-10任意选择，可以写也可以不写。
其他候选人简介
Andrew Scheer
对M103和C-16都投了反对票。未出席对C-309男女性别自认投票。他自己有5个孩子，不喜欢大麻，但认为如果大麻已经合法了，就很难再改变了，就让它继续合法。他不准备反对任何已经合法的恶法，包括安乐死，大麻合法化，同婚，堕胎.......等。他担心中国的国营企业、工业间谍、人权纪录和专政制度，反对和中国自由贸易。曾在最自由派的Kevin O退选时寻求Kevin的支持。
Michael Chong庄文浩
唯一支持M103“伊斯兰恐惧症”，支持C-16同厕和C-309自认性别，极端自由派，某些宗教人士加入保守党就是希望让他做代言人，参加同性恋大游行，是LGBT主推的候选人。
Maxime Bernier
54岁，投票支持C-16, 支持同婚同厕，参加同性恋大游行，支持自认性别，是LGBT推荐候选人，对大麻合法目前持模棱两可态度，极左派商人Kelvin O’leary退出竞选后支持MB, 可见两人立场之近。（KO支持大麻合法，支持堕胎，支持LGBT，支持性别自认，支持同厕）。
Kellie Leitch
46岁，弃权C-16同厕，支持自认性别，参加同性恋大游行，是LGBT推荐的候选人。
Lisa Raitt
49岁， 支持C-16同厕，支持自认性别，参加同性恋大游行，是LGBT推荐的候选人，缺席M-103动议投票。如果大麻合法化，她不会废止。
Deepak Obhrai
坦桑尼亚出生的印度裔66岁，曾任国会秘书，信仰Hindu，支持C-16, 弃权C-309。
Chris Alexander
支持引进大量穆斯林难民，支持C-16同厕法案，支持同婚，参加同性恋大游行，支持大麻合法化。
focus on today
资深人士
- 注册
- 2009-02-03
- 消息
- 4,673
- 荣誉分数
- 668
- 声望点数
- 223
focus on today
资深人士
- 注册
- 2009-02-03
- 消息
- 4,673
- 荣誉分数
- 668
- 声望点数
- 223
