- 注册
- 2003-04-13
- 消息
- 238,467
- 荣誉分数
- 37,841
- 声望点数
- 1,393
Many pundits and commentators are ready to anoint Conservative frontrunner Kevin O’Leary as the next leader of the party and Leader of the Opposition.
If O’Leary has signed up enough new party members to win the race on the first ballot then they will be right.
But the election to be the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada is for the first time using a ranked ballot.
I have a feeling that the membership’s choice for their next leader could be everyone’s second or third favourite choice – someone who is currently in the middle of the pack.
It could be a contestant who is flying under the radar – spending time with established party members and the least offensive choice rather than a media darling or controversial candidate.
With a ranked ballot the candidates who get knocked off in the first or second round play a huge role as their votes are distributed to the other candidates.
This leadership campaign reminds me of the 1996 Ontario Liberal leadership that saw Dalton McGuinty fly under the radar and come from fourth place on the first ballot to leap frog his opponents and win the leadership on the fifth and final ballot.
I had a front row seat to watch McGuinty win as I was a key organizer for Gerard Kennedy – the candidate in first place on every ballot except the last and final one.
The 1996 leadership election for the Ontario Liberty Party was also a preferential ballot.
Everyone’s second or third choice – Dalton McGuinty - went on to win the convention and become the longest serving Liberal premier in Ontario history.
McGuinty actually had fewer votes on the second ballot than on the first one. But as other candidates dropped off their support went to McGuinty, not to the front runners.
Gerard Kennedy was the star candidate and the media paid him the most attention. In first place after the delegate selection meetings, he was the new comer and fresh blood. Similar to Kevin O’Leary now.
With the least amount of political experience, Kennedy managed to gather enough support to be in first place – but never enough to have 50% of the votes.
O’Leary could win on the first ballot. But if he doesn’t he could face the same problems Kennedy did in 1996.
Back then Liberals had decided not to vote for Kennedy and parked their votes with their second or third choice, the middle of the road and least offensive candidate, who turned out to be McGuinty.
McGuinty was able to pass third place Dwight Duncan and second place Joe Cordiano on subsequent ballots to finish first. This happened live on a convention floor.
The Conservative race will be pre-determined as the ranked ballot will all be done at once in the voting booth. Voters have to choose up to 10 of the 14 candidates and rank them one to 10.
Lisa Raitt or Erin O’Toole are candidates in a similar position as McGuinty was then.
They are established caucus members who have spent time visiting many of the ridings, courting existing members and have gone out of their way not to be offensive to the other camps.
If their organizers can convince the other campaigns to list them as second or third on election day, they could sneak right up the middle of the pack.
If you want to vote in the Conservative race you can still buy a membership. The cut-off date is March 28.
O’Leary has likely sold enough memberships to be in first place on the first ballot. The question is, with a ranked ballot, who will be in first place on the final ballot.
