安省进步保守党领导人竞选: Doug Ford获胜
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The question of whether the deadline for voting in the Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership race should be extended is now in the hands of a judge, who is expected to make his decision Friday evening.
The last-ditch hearing came amid complaints from members about problems casting their online ballots.
The deadline for voting was noon ET today. A lawyer is seeking an injunction that would extend voting by one week.
Jeffrey Radnoff, the lawyer seeking the injunction, presented sworn affidavits in court from six party members who said they were denied the right to vote because they have yet to receive the PIN code they need to register.
Some 71,402 party members out of 190,000 in total were verified to vote in the race as of last night, CBC provincial affairs reporter Mike Crawley reported from court. By noon on Friday, 64,053 had voted, according to party officials.
If the injunction is granted, it would throw into chaos the party's plans to announce the winner on Saturday afternoon. That winner will lead the Progressive Conservatives into the provincial election campaign, which officially starts two months from today.
Doug Ford, Christine Elliott, Caroline Mulroney and Tanya Granic Allen are the candidates. All but Elliott called on the party to extend the race by a week because an unknown number of party members were not able to cast their ballots online.
Ontario PC leadership candidate Caroline Mulroney wants the vote extended. (CBC)
Members have complained to the party that they did not receive a required PIN code in the mail, making them unable to verify their identity and vote online.
It's one of those members, Christopher Arsenault, who is named as the applicant in the request for an injunction.
"Under the leadership contest rules, the party undertook to mail to members ... a letter which included a unique verification PIN," Radnoff wrote in a document filed in court seeking the injunction. "Thousands of members eligible to vote in the leadership contest have not received the letter."
Ontario PC leadership candidate Doug Ford poses for a photo during a Thursday morning campaign stop in Toronto. Ford lashed out at Elliott for her stance against a vote extension. (CBC)
The lawyer told CBC News he is not acting on behalf of any of the campaigns.
However, Arsenault donated $1,222 (the legal maximum) to Ford's leadership bid, according to Elections Ontario.
Lawyer and former MP John Nunziata said his colleague, Radnoff, would argue the motion in court.
A week-long extension, "should be sufficient to ensure that those who want to vote are given the opportunity to vote, even if it means coming down to party headquarters and casting a paper ballot," Nunziata told reporters.
He said he has received emails from dozens of party members who have been unable to vote.
Party CEO to campaigns: stop 'misrepresenting' facts
In an email to the PC campaigns obtained by CBC Toronto, the party's chief election officer Geoffrey Ritchie admonished them for not taking the options he had presented a week ago to address member concerns.
Ritchie said that though there "was no systemic mail failure," he had told campaigns that emails could be sent to members containing their voter ID to quell fears about mail issues.
All campaigns, he wrote, had told him not to take that action.
"I respectfully ask you to cease a misrepresentation of the facts," he wrote in the email.
Party officials in charge of the leadership race argue that a further extension would violate the party's rules.
"Our measures to accommodate the needs of members during this period have included extending the verification period three times and extending voting once," said Hartley Lefton, the chair of the leadership election organizing committee, in an email to CBC News on Thursday.
Lawyer Gina Brannan, representing the party, said in court Friday that the leadership vote process should be challenged through the party's internal appeals process, rather than in court.
"There's some sort of mischief afoot," she told court.
On Thursday, Ford said even his own mother has not been able to cast her ballot online.
"This is embarrassing to the party," Ford told reporters in Toronto. "I've never seen anything that disenfranchises more people from a party than this does."
Ontario PC leadership candidate Christine Elliott says the voting system has problems, but that it's 'working.' (CBC)
Ford criticized party officials for rejecting his call for a week-long extension but reserved his harshest words for rival Elliott.
"Christine doesn't believe, obviously, in democracy," said Ford. "She doesn't care if they vote or not. Christine, she doesn't give two hoots about the people or she'd be saying, 'Yes, I want everyone to vote."'
At an event in Toronto on Thursday evening, Elliott defended her stance against extending the race.
"The system is working," Elliott told reporters. "Are there some problems with it? Yes, of course. But I also understand from the party that there are some reasons in our constitution why it can't be extended."
The question of whether the deadline for voting in the Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership race should be extended is now in the hands of a judge, who is expected to make his decision Friday evening.
The last-ditch hearing came amid complaints from members about problems casting their online ballots.
The deadline for voting was noon ET today. A lawyer is seeking an injunction that would extend voting by one week.
Jeffrey Radnoff, the lawyer seeking the injunction, presented sworn affidavits in court from six party members who said they were denied the right to vote because they have yet to receive the PIN code they need to register.
Some 71,402 party members out of 190,000 in total were verified to vote in the race as of last night, CBC provincial affairs reporter Mike Crawley reported from court. By noon on Friday, 64,053 had voted, according to party officials.
If the injunction is granted, it would throw into chaos the party's plans to announce the winner on Saturday afternoon. That winner will lead the Progressive Conservatives into the provincial election campaign, which officially starts two months from today.
Doug Ford, Christine Elliott, Caroline Mulroney and Tanya Granic Allen are the candidates. All but Elliott called on the party to extend the race by a week because an unknown number of party members were not able to cast their ballots online.
Ontario PC leadership candidate Caroline Mulroney wants the vote extended. (CBC)
Members have complained to the party that they did not receive a required PIN code in the mail, making them unable to verify their identity and vote online.
It's one of those members, Christopher Arsenault, who is named as the applicant in the request for an injunction.
"Under the leadership contest rules, the party undertook to mail to members ... a letter which included a unique verification PIN," Radnoff wrote in a document filed in court seeking the injunction. "Thousands of members eligible to vote in the leadership contest have not received the letter."
Ontario PC leadership candidate Doug Ford poses for a photo during a Thursday morning campaign stop in Toronto. Ford lashed out at Elliott for her stance against a vote extension. (CBC)
The lawyer told CBC News he is not acting on behalf of any of the campaigns.
However, Arsenault donated $1,222 (the legal maximum) to Ford's leadership bid, according to Elections Ontario.
Lawyer and former MP John Nunziata said his colleague, Radnoff, would argue the motion in court.
A week-long extension, "should be sufficient to ensure that those who want to vote are given the opportunity to vote, even if it means coming down to party headquarters and casting a paper ballot," Nunziata told reporters.
He said he has received emails from dozens of party members who have been unable to vote.
Party CEO to campaigns: stop 'misrepresenting' facts
In an email to the PC campaigns obtained by CBC Toronto, the party's chief election officer Geoffrey Ritchie admonished them for not taking the options he had presented a week ago to address member concerns.
Ritchie said that though there "was no systemic mail failure," he had told campaigns that emails could be sent to members containing their voter ID to quell fears about mail issues.
All campaigns, he wrote, had told him not to take that action.
"I respectfully ask you to cease a misrepresentation of the facts," he wrote in the email.
Party officials in charge of the leadership race argue that a further extension would violate the party's rules.
"Our measures to accommodate the needs of members during this period have included extending the verification period three times and extending voting once," said Hartley Lefton, the chair of the leadership election organizing committee, in an email to CBC News on Thursday.
Lawyer Gina Brannan, representing the party, said in court Friday that the leadership vote process should be challenged through the party's internal appeals process, rather than in court.
"There's some sort of mischief afoot," she told court.
On Thursday, Ford said even his own mother has not been able to cast her ballot online.
"This is embarrassing to the party," Ford told reporters in Toronto. "I've never seen anything that disenfranchises more people from a party than this does."
Ontario PC leadership candidate Christine Elliott says the voting system has problems, but that it's 'working.' (CBC)
Ford criticized party officials for rejecting his call for a week-long extension but reserved his harshest words for rival Elliott.
"Christine doesn't believe, obviously, in democracy," said Ford. "She doesn't care if they vote or not. Christine, she doesn't give two hoots about the people or she'd be saying, 'Yes, I want everyone to vote."'
At an event in Toronto on Thursday evening, Elliott defended her stance against extending the race.
"The system is working," Elliott told reporters. "Are there some problems with it? Yes, of course. But I also understand from the party that there are some reasons in our constitution why it can't be extended."
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这个靠谱:
March 8, 2018 – The chaos and scandal that have rocked the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario over the last six weeks appears to have done little damage to the party’s electoral fortunes, but a new public opinion poll from the Angus Reid Institute shows that could change, depending on the outcome of this weekend’s PC leadership vote.
Two of the people running to replace former leader Patrick Brown – Christine Elliott and Caroline Mulroney – seem well-positioned to maintain the party’s lead before the scheduled June election, but a third – Doug Ford – could send would-be Tory voters running for another party, or keep them on their couches come election day.
Ford is a polarizing figure, beloved by many in the party’s base, but strongly disliked by many outside it. While Ontarians overall are more likely to have a favourable than unfavourable view of Elliott and Mulroney, nearly twice as many have an unfavourable view of Ford (51%) as have a favourable one (27%).
This dynamic could extend to vote intention as well. Both Elliott and Mulroney would inspire more Ontarians to vote for the party than they would drive away, while Ford would discourage double the number he would encourage to support the Progressive Conservatives if he became leader (42% versus 19%, respectively).
More Key Findings:
http://angusreid.org/ontario-pc-elliott-mulroney-ford/
March 8, 2018 – The chaos and scandal that have rocked the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario over the last six weeks appears to have done little damage to the party’s electoral fortunes, but a new public opinion poll from the Angus Reid Institute shows that could change, depending on the outcome of this weekend’s PC leadership vote.
Two of the people running to replace former leader Patrick Brown – Christine Elliott and Caroline Mulroney – seem well-positioned to maintain the party’s lead before the scheduled June election, but a third – Doug Ford – could send would-be Tory voters running for another party, or keep them on their couches come election day.
Ford is a polarizing figure, beloved by many in the party’s base, but strongly disliked by many outside it. While Ontarians overall are more likely to have a favourable than unfavourable view of Elliott and Mulroney, nearly twice as many have an unfavourable view of Ford (51%) as have a favourable one (27%).
This dynamic could extend to vote intention as well. Both Elliott and Mulroney would inspire more Ontarians to vote for the party than they would drive away, while Ford would discourage double the number he would encourage to support the Progressive Conservatives if he became leader (42% versus 19%, respectively).
More Key Findings:
- Fully half (50%) of decided and leaning voters say they plan to support the Progressive Conservatives in June, compared to 24 per cent who favour the governing Liberals and 22 per cent who would cast their ballots for the Ontario New Democratic Party
- Among those on the fence about supporting the PCPO, Ford’s influence is decidedly negative. Half (48%) of those who say they would “certainly consider” voting PC in the upcoming election say Ford would make them less likely to vote for the party
- Elliott and Mulroney fare better with those still making up their minds about whether to vote Progressive Conservative. Elliott is the candidate viewed most favourably by those ages 55 and older, while Mulroney is viewed most favourably by those ages 18-34.
http://angusreid.org/ontario-pc-elliott-mulroney-ford/
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How the Ontario PC leadership candidates stack up
The Ontario PCs will announce their new leader today. Who will it be?
By Éric Grenier, CBC News Posted: Mar 10, 2018 4:00 AM ET Last Updated: Mar 10, 2018 4:00 AM ET
Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leadership candidates (left to right) Tanya Granic Allen, Christine Elliott, Caroline Mulroney and Doug Ford. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)
Éric Grenier
Politics and polls
The debates are done, the ballots have been cast — and today, we expect to learn who will lead the Ontario Progressive Conservatives into the June provincial election.
Though leadership races can be opaque affairs that are difficult to parse from the outside, there are some clues that can tell us who has the inside track.
Three metrics can help reveal where a leadership race stands: endorsements, fundraising and polling. And while these metrics do not agree entirely on which of the four candidates — Tanya Granic Allen, Christine Elliott, Doug Ford and Caroline Mulroney — has the best chance of winning, they do provide a glimpse of the contours of the race.
Mulroney leads in fundraising
The ability to raise money — a lot of it — is often a good predictor of how a candidate will do in a leadership race.
Mulroney has raised the most money so far. Her campaign says she has taken in just over $938,000 as of Thursday night. It's an enormous sum — Andrew Scheer raised only a little more than that for a campaign to lead the federal Conservatives that lasted for eight months.
It also puts Mulroney ahead of Elliott — who says she has raised over $746,000 — and Ford, who claims to have pulled in over $400,000.
Granic Allen's campaign did not respond to questions about its fundraising total. Financial disclosures show she has raised at least $118,000, but Elections Ontario only posts contributions from donors who give $100 or more.
For that reason, it's not possible to confirm the fundraising totals claimed by each campaign; the complete results will be made public on the Elections Ontario website after the race is over.
Ontario PC leadership candidate Caroline Mulroney has raised the most money in this campaign. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)
But while Mulroney has the edge in total donations, she trails Elliott and Ford in the total number of donors. Mulroney has raised her money from about 2,879 donors, giving an average of about $326 each. Ford claims more than 4,200 donors and Elliott more than 4,600, giving an average donation of about $160 for Elliott and $95 for Ford.
Having more donors might suggest a larger base of supporters, but in past leadership races the total sums raised have been more predictive than the number of donors.
Advantage: Mulroney, with Elliott and Ford each raising enough to be competitive.
Elliott ahead in endorsements
Endorsements from MPPs, MPs and nominated candidates are not necessarily decisive on their own (though in the federal Conservative leadership race, an endorsement from a sitting MP was worth about 11 percentage points in his or her riding). But they can deliver the support of local organizations that can help with get-out-the-vote efforts.
They also serve as an informal poll of who the people with skin in the game think can win.
Elliott leads on endorsements by a wide margin. She has the backing of 13 PC MPPs, nine Ontario Conservative MPs and 30 nominated PC candidates, according to a tally by CBC News. That gives her 52 endorsements from these three categories.
Christine Elliott has the most endorsements in the campaign to replace Patrick Brown as Ontario PC leader. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press)
The only other candidate with a significant number of endorsements within the party is Mulroney, who has 32 party people backing her (five MPPs, eight MPs and 19 candidates). Ford has the support of two MPPs and three candidates, while Granic Allen has none.
But while having endorsements is helpful, it isn't enough on its own. Elliott had significantly more endorsements than Patrick Brown did in 2015. Brown won.
Advantage: Elliott, with Mulroney posting a respectable list.
Poll shows coin flip between Elliott and Ford
Mainstreet Research, which obtained a list of PC party members to survey, suggests that the race is a toss-up between Elliott and Ford.
In the survey published on Friday — conducted between Mar. 1-8 and surveying 18,308 members of the party — Mainstreet showed Elliott and Ford tied at 35 per cent apiece on the first ballot (taking into account the equal weighting being applied to Ontario's 124 ridings).
Mulroney trailed in third with 17 per cent, with Granic Allen in fourth at 12.5 per cent.
If the results on Saturday mimic the poll, Granic Allen will be eliminated on the first ballot and more than two-thirds of her supporters will go to Ford, pushing him ahead of Elliott on the second ballot. But about two-thirds of Mulroney's supporters, after her elimination on the second ballot, would go to Elliott.
Doug Ford was effectively tied with Christine Elliott in a poll of PC party members by Mainstreet Research. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)
Simulating the vote to the final ballot, Mainstreet found Elliott narrowly finishing ahead of Ford, 51 to 49 per cent.
Considering the margin of error in the poll, how that error could be amplified over multiple rounds of voting and the intricacies involved in counting the votes, that split between Ford and Elliott is basically a toss-up. The winner could be chosen by a handful of party members.
Polls of all Ontarians indicate that whoever does win could also win the June election — but Elliott and Mulroney come with fewer risks for the party. The Angus Reid Institute finds that both Elliott and Mulroney are seen favourably by the general population, while a majority of Ontarians have an unfavourable view of Ford.
And among those voters who would consider voting PC but are not yet locked-in, an Elliott or Mulroney leadership would make them more likely to vote PC. Ford would make them less likely to cast a ballot for the party.
Advantage: Toss-up between Elliott and Ford.
Elliott vs. Ford, with Mulroney a long-shot
Taking the three metrics into account, along with their predictive value, suggests that the race is between Elliott and Ford. These are the two candidates who perform best in polling of PC members, and both have enough money to mount a credible campaign.
Ford's lack of endorsements should not significantly hamper him, as his campaign has been explicitly anti-establishment from the beginning. But it could be a signal that he has limited growth potential, while Elliott's endorsements point to her being a compromise candidate.
Mulroney's endorsement list and impressive fundraising suggest that she could put up good numbers on the first ballot and cannot be ruled out.
But the polling indicates that the membership hasn't preferred her over the other options in large enough numbers to put her in the running. That puts her in a category with Erin O'Toole, who ran for the federal Conservative leadership with fundraising and endorsement numbers similar to Scheer's, but lacked the polling numbers to make him a serious contender.
Mulroney needs the polls to be very wrong — or for the turnout to tilt disproportionately in her direction and away from her rivals — in order to pull off an upset.
That's how it looks from the outside, anyway. We'll find out what those on the inside think this afternoon.
The Ontario PCs will announce their new leader today. Who will it be?
By Éric Grenier, CBC News Posted: Mar 10, 2018 4:00 AM ET Last Updated: Mar 10, 2018 4:00 AM ET
Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leadership candidates (left to right) Tanya Granic Allen, Christine Elliott, Caroline Mulroney and Doug Ford. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)
Éric Grenier
Politics and polls
The debates are done, the ballots have been cast — and today, we expect to learn who will lead the Ontario Progressive Conservatives into the June provincial election.
Though leadership races can be opaque affairs that are difficult to parse from the outside, there are some clues that can tell us who has the inside track.
Three metrics can help reveal where a leadership race stands: endorsements, fundraising and polling. And while these metrics do not agree entirely on which of the four candidates — Tanya Granic Allen, Christine Elliott, Doug Ford and Caroline Mulroney — has the best chance of winning, they do provide a glimpse of the contours of the race.
Mulroney leads in fundraising
The ability to raise money — a lot of it — is often a good predictor of how a candidate will do in a leadership race.
Mulroney has raised the most money so far. Her campaign says she has taken in just over $938,000 as of Thursday night. It's an enormous sum — Andrew Scheer raised only a little more than that for a campaign to lead the federal Conservatives that lasted for eight months.
It also puts Mulroney ahead of Elliott — who says she has raised over $746,000 — and Ford, who claims to have pulled in over $400,000.
Granic Allen's campaign did not respond to questions about its fundraising total. Financial disclosures show she has raised at least $118,000, but Elections Ontario only posts contributions from donors who give $100 or more.
For that reason, it's not possible to confirm the fundraising totals claimed by each campaign; the complete results will be made public on the Elections Ontario website after the race is over.
Ontario PC leadership candidate Caroline Mulroney has raised the most money in this campaign. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)
But while Mulroney has the edge in total donations, she trails Elliott and Ford in the total number of donors. Mulroney has raised her money from about 2,879 donors, giving an average of about $326 each. Ford claims more than 4,200 donors and Elliott more than 4,600, giving an average donation of about $160 for Elliott and $95 for Ford.
Having more donors might suggest a larger base of supporters, but in past leadership races the total sums raised have been more predictive than the number of donors.
Advantage: Mulroney, with Elliott and Ford each raising enough to be competitive.
Elliott ahead in endorsements
Endorsements from MPPs, MPs and nominated candidates are not necessarily decisive on their own (though in the federal Conservative leadership race, an endorsement from a sitting MP was worth about 11 percentage points in his or her riding). But they can deliver the support of local organizations that can help with get-out-the-vote efforts.
They also serve as an informal poll of who the people with skin in the game think can win.
Elliott leads on endorsements by a wide margin. She has the backing of 13 PC MPPs, nine Ontario Conservative MPs and 30 nominated PC candidates, according to a tally by CBC News. That gives her 52 endorsements from these three categories.
Christine Elliott has the most endorsements in the campaign to replace Patrick Brown as Ontario PC leader. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press)
The only other candidate with a significant number of endorsements within the party is Mulroney, who has 32 party people backing her (five MPPs, eight MPs and 19 candidates). Ford has the support of two MPPs and three candidates, while Granic Allen has none.
But while having endorsements is helpful, it isn't enough on its own. Elliott had significantly more endorsements than Patrick Brown did in 2015. Brown won.
Advantage: Elliott, with Mulroney posting a respectable list.
Poll shows coin flip between Elliott and Ford
Mainstreet Research, which obtained a list of PC party members to survey, suggests that the race is a toss-up between Elliott and Ford.
In the survey published on Friday — conducted between Mar. 1-8 and surveying 18,308 members of the party — Mainstreet showed Elliott and Ford tied at 35 per cent apiece on the first ballot (taking into account the equal weighting being applied to Ontario's 124 ridings).
Mulroney trailed in third with 17 per cent, with Granic Allen in fourth at 12.5 per cent.
If the results on Saturday mimic the poll, Granic Allen will be eliminated on the first ballot and more than two-thirds of her supporters will go to Ford, pushing him ahead of Elliott on the second ballot. But about two-thirds of Mulroney's supporters, after her elimination on the second ballot, would go to Elliott.
Doug Ford was effectively tied with Christine Elliott in a poll of PC party members by Mainstreet Research. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)
Simulating the vote to the final ballot, Mainstreet found Elliott narrowly finishing ahead of Ford, 51 to 49 per cent.
Considering the margin of error in the poll, how that error could be amplified over multiple rounds of voting and the intricacies involved in counting the votes, that split between Ford and Elliott is basically a toss-up. The winner could be chosen by a handful of party members.
Polls of all Ontarians indicate that whoever does win could also win the June election — but Elliott and Mulroney come with fewer risks for the party. The Angus Reid Institute finds that both Elliott and Mulroney are seen favourably by the general population, while a majority of Ontarians have an unfavourable view of Ford.
And among those voters who would consider voting PC but are not yet locked-in, an Elliott or Mulroney leadership would make them more likely to vote PC. Ford would make them less likely to cast a ballot for the party.
Advantage: Toss-up between Elliott and Ford.
Elliott vs. Ford, with Mulroney a long-shot
Taking the three metrics into account, along with their predictive value, suggests that the race is between Elliott and Ford. These are the two candidates who perform best in polling of PC members, and both have enough money to mount a credible campaign.
Ford's lack of endorsements should not significantly hamper him, as his campaign has been explicitly anti-establishment from the beginning. But it could be a signal that he has limited growth potential, while Elliott's endorsements point to her being a compromise candidate.
Mulroney's endorsement list and impressive fundraising suggest that she could put up good numbers on the first ballot and cannot be ruled out.
But the polling indicates that the membership hasn't preferred her over the other options in large enough numbers to put her in the running. That puts her in a category with Erin O'Toole, who ran for the federal Conservative leadership with fundraising and endorsement numbers similar to Scheer's, but lacked the polling numbers to make him a serious contender.
Mulroney needs the polls to be very wrong — or for the turnout to tilt disproportionately in her direction and away from her rivals — in order to pull off an upset.
That's how it looks from the outside, anyway. We'll find out what those on the inside think this afternoon.
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Elliott 要是获胜，会比Katheline 强吗？How the Ontario PC leadership candidates stack up
The Ontario PCs will announce their new leader today. Who will it be?
By Éric Grenier, CBC News Posted: Mar 10, 2018 4:00 AM ET Last Updated: Mar 10, 2018 4:00 AM ET
Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leadership candidates (left to right) Tanya Granic Allen, Christine Elliott, Caroline Mulroney and Doug Ford. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)
Éric Grenier
Politics and polls
The debates are done, the ballots have been cast — and today, we expect to learn who will lead the Ontario Progressive Conservatives into the June provincial election.
Though leadership races can be opaque affairs that are difficult to parse from the outside, there are some clues that can tell us who has the inside track.
Three metrics can help reveal where a leadership race stands: endorsements, fundraising and polling. And while these metrics do not agree entirely on which of the four candidates — Tanya Granic Allen, Christine Elliott, Doug Ford and Caroline Mulroney — has the best chance of winning, they do provide a glimpse of the contours of the race.
Mulroney leads in fundraising
The ability to raise money — a lot of it — is often a good predictor of how a candidate will do in a leadership race.
Mulroney has raised the most money so far. Her campaign says she has taken in just over $938,000 as of Thursday night. It's an enormous sum — Andrew Scheer raised only a little more than that for a campaign to lead the federal Conservatives that lasted for eight months.
It also puts Mulroney ahead of Elliott — who says she has raised over $746,000 — and Ford, who claims to have pulled in over $400,000.
Granic Allen's campaign did not respond to questions about its fundraising total. Financial disclosures show she has raised at least $118,000, but Elections Ontario only posts contributions from donors who give $100 or more.
For that reason, it's not possible to confirm the fundraising totals claimed by each campaign; the complete results will be made public on the Elections Ontario website after the race is over.
Ontario PC leadership candidate Caroline Mulroney has raised the most money in this campaign. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)
But while Mulroney has the edge in total donations, she trails Elliott and Ford in the total number of donors. Mulroney has raised her money from about 2,879 donors, giving an average of about $326 each. Ford claims more than 4,200 donors and Elliott more than 4,600, giving an average donation of about $160 for Elliott and $95 for Ford.
Having more donors might suggest a larger base of supporters, but in past leadership races the total sums raised have been more predictive than the number of donors.
Advantage: Mulroney, with Elliott and Ford each raising enough to be competitive.
Elliott ahead in endorsements
Endorsements from MPPs, MPs and nominated candidates are not necessarily decisive on their own (though in the federal Conservative leadership race, an endorsement from a sitting MP was worth about 11 percentage points in his or her riding). But they can deliver the support of local organizations that can help with get-out-the-vote efforts.
They also serve as an informal poll of who the people with skin in the game think can win.
Elliott leads on endorsements by a wide margin. She has the backing of 13 PC MPPs, nine Ontario Conservative MPs and 30 nominated PC candidates, according to a tally by CBC News. That gives her 52 endorsements from these three categories.
Christine Elliott has the most endorsements in the campaign to replace Patrick Brown as Ontario PC leader. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press)
The only other candidate with a significant number of endorsements within the party is Mulroney, who has 32 party people backing her (five MPPs, eight MPs and 19 candidates). Ford has the support of two MPPs and three candidates, while Granic Allen has none.
But while having endorsements is helpful, it isn't enough on its own. Elliott had significantly more endorsements than Patrick Brown did in 2015. Brown won.
Advantage: Elliott, with Mulroney posting a respectable list.
Poll shows coin flip between Elliott and Ford
Mainstreet Research, which obtained a list of PC party members to survey, suggests that the race is a toss-up between Elliott and Ford.
In the survey published on Friday — conducted between Mar. 1-8 and surveying 18,308 members of the party — Mainstreet showed Elliott and Ford tied at 35 per cent apiece on the first ballot (taking into account the equal weighting being applied to Ontario's 124 ridings).
Mulroney trailed in third with 17 per cent, with Granic Allen in fourth at 12.5 per cent.
If the results on Saturday mimic the poll, Granic Allen will be eliminated on the first ballot and more than two-thirds of her supporters will go to Ford, pushing him ahead of Elliott on the second ballot. But about two-thirds of Mulroney's supporters, after her elimination on the second ballot, would go to Elliott.
Doug Ford was effectively tied with Christine Elliott in a poll of PC party members by Mainstreet Research. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)
Simulating the vote to the final ballot, Mainstreet found Elliott narrowly finishing ahead of Ford, 51 to 49 per cent.
Considering the margin of error in the poll, how that error could be amplified over multiple rounds of voting and the intricacies involved in counting the votes, that split between Ford and Elliott is basically a toss-up. The winner could be chosen by a handful of party members.
Polls of all Ontarians indicate that whoever does win could also win the June election — but Elliott and Mulroney come with fewer risks for the party. The Angus Reid Institute finds that both Elliott and Mulroney are seen favourably by the general population, while a majority of Ontarians have an unfavourable view of Ford.
And among those voters who would consider voting PC but are not yet locked-in, an Elliott or Mulroney leadership would make them more likely to vote PC. Ford would make them less likely to cast a ballot for the party.
Advantage: Toss-up between Elliott and Ford.
Elliott vs. Ford, with Mulroney a long-shot
Taking the three metrics into account, along with their predictive value, suggests that the race is between Elliott and Ford. These are the two candidates who perform best in polling of PC members, and both have enough money to mount a credible campaign.
Ford's lack of endorsements should not significantly hamper him, as his campaign has been explicitly anti-establishment from the beginning. But it could be a signal that he has limited growth potential, while Elliott's endorsements point to her being a compromise candidate.
Mulroney's endorsement list and impressive fundraising suggest that she could put up good numbers on the first ballot and cannot be ruled out.
But the polling indicates that the membership hasn't preferred her over the other options in large enough numbers to put her in the running. That puts her in a category with Erin O'Toole, who ran for the federal Conservative leadership with fundraising and endorsement numbers similar to Scheer's, but lacked the polling numbers to make him a serious contender.
Mulroney needs the polls to be very wrong — or for the turnout to tilt disproportionately in her direction and away from her rivals — in order to pull off an upset.
That's how it looks from the outside, anyway. We'll find out what those on the inside think this afternoon.
- 注册
- 2003-04-13
- 消息
- 239,175
- 荣誉分数
- 37,444
- 声望点数
- 1,393
- 注册
- 2003-04-13
- 消息
- 239,175
- 荣誉分数
- 37,444
- 声望点数
- 1,393
Ontario's embattled Progressive Conservatives are set to reveal on Saturday who will lead the party into the spring election after weeks of internal chaos triggered by the resignation of former leader Patrick Brown.
Former MPP and deputy PC leader Christine Elliott, former Toronto city councillor Doug Ford, Toronto lawyer and businesswoman Caroline Mulroney, and parental rights crusader Tanya Granic Allen are on the ballot.
CBC News will livestream the afternoon's events and CBC News Network will have special coverage of the leadership convention beginning at 1 p.m. ET.
Recent polling suggests that the contest is a toss-up between Elliott and Ford.
Elliott has presented herself as a moderate, experienced Tory and prudent choice to take on Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne in June. She unsuccessfully ran for the party's top spot in 2009 and 2015.
For his part, Ford has struck a populist tone and cultivated an image of a businessman who can cut government waste.
Mulroney, who is running as a PC candidate in the riding of York-Simcoe, had — as of Thursday night — managed to raise more money than any of her peers. She has painted herself as a fresh face who can change the culture of the party.
Meanwhile, Granic Allen has emphasized her ties to the party's grassroots and stuck to a staunchly socially conservative agenda.
While all four have pledged to scrap a proposed carbon tax that formed a key pillar of the party's election platform under Brown, the 44-day race has been relatively light on policy debate and heavy on questions about who would be best able to right a party thrown into chaos by Brown's departure.
The Simcoe North MPP resigned in January following allegations of sexual misconduct from two women. He has consistently denied any wrongdoing and served CTV News, which first published the allegations, with a notice of libel.
His departure led to a power struggle in the PC's top ranks and illuminated deep divisions within caucus. It also raised serious questions about the validity of the PC membership list which, according to Brown, ballooned under his tenure from some 12,000 to more than 200,000.
However, in a memo to staff last month, interim leader Vic Fedeli said that Brown had inflated the numbers by about 70,000. The actual figure remains in dispute.
On Friday, PC party officials said that 64,053 ballots had been cast by the end of the voting period. More than 71,400 were registered to vote, according to officials.
Problems with the registration process drew significant backlash from three of the four candidates. Ford said the leadership vote was "not transparent" and alleged that only select members were receiving their registration code in time to cast a ballot. He, Mulroney and Granic Allen all called for the party to extend the voting period.
The matter was settled on Friday afternoon by a Ontario Superior Court judge, who dismissed an injunction application from a disenfranchised party member to prolong the vote.
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