房价会涨还是会跌？
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房价的跌涨需要仔细分析。一般讲，已经买了房子的人希望房价继续升，而还没买房子的希望价格跌下来。实际上这里有误区。如果你已经买了房子，是要自己住，而不是要转手，房价涨与你并没有好处，除了一个心理安慰。因为，你要多付出Property Tax。但是，如果你要卖房子，那是另外一回事。这也是房地产和股票的主要不同。
从目前渥太华的房地产市场来看，实际上已经是强弓之末。由於，现在房地产的目标是按照几年前IT发展正盛的时期制定的，所以还有些惯性。从目前的销售来看，主要分额都集中在20万一下的一般住房(TOWNHOUSE)等。SINGLE HOUSE 销售下降很历害。但是，房地产商很了解顾客买涨不买跌的心理，所以，他们轻易不会降价。若那样市场只会更坏！他们采用的方式是给你Bonus。这样，实际上是变相降价，但表面上又在支撑着市场。
另外，为什么这几年，渥太华的房地产价格会如此Crazy?大家都明白是因为IT工业的迅速兴起。从现在的情况来看，IT行业元气的恢复短期内很难(请不要误会，我这里没有扫大家的兴的意思)。就是IT行业恢复了，我认为也不会在KANADA，Maybe China?
所以，我的结论是渥太华的房地产是强弓之末，未来几年应当是看跌。
从目前渥太华的房地产市场来看，实际上已经是强弓之末。由於，现在房地产的目标是按照几年前IT发展正盛的时期制定的，所以还有些惯性。从目前的销售来看，主要分额都集中在20万一下的一般住房(TOWNHOUSE)等。SINGLE HOUSE 销售下降很历害。但是，房地产商很了解顾客买涨不买跌的心理，所以，他们轻易不会降价。若那样市场只会更坏！他们采用的方式是给你Bonus。这样，实际上是变相降价，但表面上又在支撑着市场。
另外，为什么这几年，渥太华的房地产价格会如此Crazy?大家都明白是因为IT工业的迅速兴起。从现在的情况来看，IT行业元气的恢复短期内很难(请不要误会，我这里没有扫大家的兴的意思)。就是IT行业恢复了，我认为也不会在KANADA，Maybe China?
所以，我的结论是渥太华的房地产是强弓之末，未来几年应当是看跌。
地产经纪公司REMAX预测，加拿大住宅价格明年的攀升速度将放缓，增长幅度将不到
二零零三年的三分之一。
REMAX在周一公布的预测报告中指出，加拿大明年住宅销售的平均价格将在二十万零
九千三百元水平，上涨百分之三。报告说，预料明年的物业销售市道将平稳。
市道料平稳
REMAX的报告中指出，在二零零三年，由于低按揭利率的刺激，住宅平均销售价格将
达到二十万零三千二百元，比二零零二年增长百分之八，而物业销售上升幅度可望
达到百分之三。
REMAX安省-大西洋省份分部行政总监亚历山大(PAMELA ALEXANDER)指出，利率仍然
是刺激购置物业活动的最主要因素。
她指出，利率创下自六十年代以来最优惠水平，投资地产非常有吸引力，尤其是将
其作为另类投资的工具。
因为债券市场的借贷成本提高，各大银行于上周将长期按揭利率提高了大约四分之
一厘，短期按揭利率无变动。
亚历山大对于按揭利率提高并不担忧。她指按揭利率提高两厘及物业售价攀升才能
使购置物业者的热情降温。
温哥华是加拿大物业价格最昂贵的地产市场，预计温哥华地区明年的平均物业价格
将从二零零三年的三十三万元升至三十四万六千元。
在所调查的主要十八个物业市场中，利齐拿(REGINA)的物业价格将最为低廉，二零
零四年的平均物业价格将从今年的十万零三千九百元上升至十万零七千元。
REMAX预测渥太华物业平均价格升幅将最大，新屋平均价格将攀升百分之七，而安省
伦敦的平均物业价格上升幅度将最低，大约百分之一点三。
REMAX预测，在二零零三年，全国住宅销售总数将达到四十三万三千九百单位，预计
二零零四年的住宅销售水平大致与二零零三年的相仿
二零零三年的三分之一。
REMAX在周一公布的预测报告中指出，加拿大明年住宅销售的平均价格将在二十万零
九千三百元水平，上涨百分之三。报告说，预料明年的物业销售市道将平稳。
市道料平稳
REMAX的报告中指出，在二零零三年，由于低按揭利率的刺激，住宅平均销售价格将
达到二十万零三千二百元，比二零零二年增长百分之八，而物业销售上升幅度可望
达到百分之三。
REMAX安省-大西洋省份分部行政总监亚历山大(PAMELA ALEXANDER)指出，利率仍然
是刺激购置物业活动的最主要因素。
她指出，利率创下自六十年代以来最优惠水平，投资地产非常有吸引力，尤其是将
其作为另类投资的工具。
因为债券市场的借贷成本提高，各大银行于上周将长期按揭利率提高了大约四分之
一厘，短期按揭利率无变动。
亚历山大对于按揭利率提高并不担忧。她指按揭利率提高两厘及物业售价攀升才能
使购置物业者的热情降温。
温哥华是加拿大物业价格最昂贵的地产市场，预计温哥华地区明年的平均物业价格
将从二零零三年的三十三万元升至三十四万六千元。
在所调查的主要十八个物业市场中，利齐拿(REGINA)的物业价格将最为低廉，二零
零四年的平均物业价格将从今年的十万零三千九百元上升至十万零七千元。
REMAX预测渥太华物业平均价格升幅将最大，新屋平均价格将攀升百分之七，而安省
伦敦的平均物业价格上升幅度将最低，大约百分之一点三。
REMAX预测，在二零零三年，全国住宅销售总数将达到四十三万三千九百单位，预计
二零零四年的住宅销售水平大致与二零零三年的相仿
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昨天，the ottawa citizen 上也有re/max的这个报告，题目是
'ottawa to lead leap in price of resale homes'
here are some interesting stuff with regard to ottawa,
...housing prices are expected to rise seven per cent nex year in ottawa, the highest increase of all major urban centres...
...ottawa ranks fourth in average price sales behind vancouver, toronto and victoria, but it ranks a distant sixth in houses sold, behind toronto, montreal, vancouver,calgary and edmonton...
'ottawa to lead leap in price of resale homes'
here are some interesting stuff with regard to ottawa,
...housing prices are expected to rise seven per cent nex year in ottawa, the highest increase of all major urban centres...
...ottawa ranks fourth in average price sales behind vancouver, toronto and victoria, but it ranks a distant sixth in houses sold, behind toronto, montreal, vancouver,calgary and edmonton...
2004 to be another strong year for housing market
By Leo Valiquette, Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Thu, Oct 23, 2003 11:00 AM EST
A strong local labour market is expected to keep Ottawa's housing market humming along in 2004, according to the latest forecast from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., albeit at a more moderate pace than in recent years.
The forecast for Ottawa came out of CMHC's Housing Outlook Conference that took place Thursday morning at the Ottawa Congress Centre.
For 2003, CMHC expects housing starts in the nation's capital to total 6,400, down from its spring forecast of 6,800. The new estimate actually matches CMHC's forecast for 2003 from a year ago.
The region's housing market has enjoyed a strong boom in recent years, as the slack left by a weak tech sector was picked up by an expanding federal government and a booming construction industry.
In 2002, local housing starts hit a 14-year high of 7,796. At 6,400, starts will be down by 17 per cent.
"Strong job growth this year will translate into sustained demand for housing for the rest of this year and into 2004," said Christian Douchant, CMHC's senior market analyst for Ottawa. "With over 25,000 new jobs in Ottawa to date, we can expect the demand for homes to remain firm."
The strong job market, low mortgage rates and expectations for continued migration to the city is expected to drive the market through 2004.
For 2004, housing starts are expected to remain at an historic high of 6,200, with 2,900 of them for more costly single-family homes.
CHMC also expects the resale market for older homes to be the hotbed of activity in the housing market next year, rather than new home construction. More homes will come onto to the resale market as home owners take advantage of high selling prices after three years of rapid appreciation and empty nesters downsize.
Douchant said the trend is already emerging, with the number of homes listed for resale up 10 per cent from last year.
About 12,800 homes are expected to change hands on the resale market in 2004, up from the forecast of 12,500 for 2003. Prices will continue to push upward due to the demand, by nine per cent this year and nine per cent again in 2004.
"Of course in high tech there's still some uncertainty but overall job growth in the economy has been pretty good for Ottawa compared to Ontario," Douchant said.
"It's not going to be the record year we had last year but ... its still going to be above average for the CMA. It's a steady pace. It's a good sustainable pace."
http://www.ottawabusinessjournal.com/278945551743320.php
By Leo Valiquette, Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Thu, Oct 23, 2003 11:00 AM EST
A strong local labour market is expected to keep Ottawa's housing market humming along in 2004, according to the latest forecast from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., albeit at a more moderate pace than in recent years.
The forecast for Ottawa came out of CMHC's Housing Outlook Conference that took place Thursday morning at the Ottawa Congress Centre.
For 2003, CMHC expects housing starts in the nation's capital to total 6,400, down from its spring forecast of 6,800. The new estimate actually matches CMHC's forecast for 2003 from a year ago.
The region's housing market has enjoyed a strong boom in recent years, as the slack left by a weak tech sector was picked up by an expanding federal government and a booming construction industry.
In 2002, local housing starts hit a 14-year high of 7,796. At 6,400, starts will be down by 17 per cent.
"Strong job growth this year will translate into sustained demand for housing for the rest of this year and into 2004," said Christian Douchant, CMHC's senior market analyst for Ottawa. "With over 25,000 new jobs in Ottawa to date, we can expect the demand for homes to remain firm."
The strong job market, low mortgage rates and expectations for continued migration to the city is expected to drive the market through 2004.
For 2004, housing starts are expected to remain at an historic high of 6,200, with 2,900 of them for more costly single-family homes.
CHMC also expects the resale market for older homes to be the hotbed of activity in the housing market next year, rather than new home construction. More homes will come onto to the resale market as home owners take advantage of high selling prices after three years of rapid appreciation and empty nesters downsize.
Douchant said the trend is already emerging, with the number of homes listed for resale up 10 per cent from last year.
About 12,800 homes are expected to change hands on the resale market in 2004, up from the forecast of 12,500 for 2003. Prices will continue to push upward due to the demand, by nine per cent this year and nine per cent again in 2004.
"Of course in high tech there's still some uncertainty but overall job growth in the economy has been pretty good for Ottawa compared to Ontario," Douchant said.
"It's not going to be the record year we had last year but ... its still going to be above average for the CMA. It's a steady pace. It's a good sustainable pace."
http://www.ottawabusinessjournal.com/278945551743320.php
Building permits point to more boom in Ottawa's housing market
FYI. See full article from the link below. Do not know if it is true.
http://www.ottawabusinessjournal.com/279037372673730.php
Building permits point to more boom in Ottawa's housing market
By Leo Valiquette, Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Tue, Nov 4, 2003 12:00 PM EST
Local homebuilders took out almost twice as many construction permits in September than in August, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday, another sign that the region's housing boom is far from over.
All told, building permits were up by 27.1 per cent in September from August, to $162.03 million. On the year to date, the tally is ahead by 1.4 per cent, at $1.303 billion.
Statscan reported that $121.32 million worth of residential building permits were taken out in September, a jump of 86.3 per cent from $65.12 million in August. The jump was driven equally by both halves of the market ? single-family homes and cheaper multiple dwelling types such as rowhouses and condos.
The jump put the total for the residential sector on the year to date at $777.43 million. That is down 4.2 per cent from the strong $811.72 million recorded in the first nine months of 2002. However, it still paints a far brighter picture than in August, when the year-to-date total was off by 12 per cent from the same period of 2002.
The latest permits data comes only a couple of weeks after Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. released its semiannual outlook for the local housing market.
According to CMHC's Christian Douchant, a strong labour market driven by government and construction hiring should maintain a healthy level of activity through 2004.
For 2004, housing starts are expected to remain at an historic high of 6,200, with 2,900 of them for more costly single-family homes.
September was a different story altogether for the non-residential side of the construction market. Total non-res permits were down by almost 35 per cent from August, to $40.7 million from $62.35 million. Declines were seen in all three segments of that market ? commercial, institutional and industrial.
However, on the year-to-date, activity in the non-res sector remains 10.9-per-cent higher than the comparable period of 2002, at $526.16 million.
FYI. See full article from the link below. Do not know if it is true.
http://www.ottawabusinessjournal.com/279037372673730.php
Building permits point to more boom in Ottawa's housing market
By Leo Valiquette, Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Tue, Nov 4, 2003 12:00 PM EST
Local homebuilders took out almost twice as many construction permits in September than in August, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday, another sign that the region's housing boom is far from over.
All told, building permits were up by 27.1 per cent in September from August, to $162.03 million. On the year to date, the tally is ahead by 1.4 per cent, at $1.303 billion.
Statscan reported that $121.32 million worth of residential building permits were taken out in September, a jump of 86.3 per cent from $65.12 million in August. The jump was driven equally by both halves of the market ? single-family homes and cheaper multiple dwelling types such as rowhouses and condos.
The jump put the total for the residential sector on the year to date at $777.43 million. That is down 4.2 per cent from the strong $811.72 million recorded in the first nine months of 2002. However, it still paints a far brighter picture than in August, when the year-to-date total was off by 12 per cent from the same period of 2002.
The latest permits data comes only a couple of weeks after Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. released its semiannual outlook for the local housing market.
According to CMHC's Christian Douchant, a strong labour market driven by government and construction hiring should maintain a healthy level of activity through 2004.
For 2004, housing starts are expected to remain at an historic high of 6,200, with 2,900 of them for more costly single-family homes.
September was a different story altogether for the non-residential side of the construction market. Total non-res permits were down by almost 35 per cent from August, to $40.7 million from $62.35 million. Declines were seen in all three segments of that market ? commercial, institutional and industrial.
However, on the year-to-date, activity in the non-res sector remains 10.9-per-cent higher than the comparable period of 2002, at $526.16 million.
