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六月份的安省大选有戏看了
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http://thechronicleherald.ca/opinio...-could-happen-after-ontario-goes-to-the-polls
OPINION: This is what could happen after Ontario goes to the polls
Robert Drummond THE CONVERSATION
Published June 2, 2018 - 2:03pm
Last Updated June 2, 2018 - 5:42pm
Kathleen Wynne has publicly conceded she won’t be premier after Ontario residents go to the polls this Thursday. The unusual acknowledgement came with a plea from the premier to ask voters to elect enough of her Liberal candidates to ensure a minority NDP or Progressive Conservative government.
The move by Wynne was another unexpected development in a campaign that has had many surprises since it started a few weeks ago. And although the results of the election will be known Thursday, the people of Ontario may have to wait a while to know who will form what sort of government.
Clearly, if one party wins a majority of the seats, they will form the government, but polls to date suggest the results may not be that straightforward. The Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats are within the margin of error of a tie in popular vote, but the trailing Liberals could still have a significant impact on the final result.
A further complication, of course, is the fact that results will vary considerably from riding to riding.
Ridings in play
Since the last election, the boundaries of Ontario constituencies have been redrawn, so it’s not easy to translate past results into current predictions.
However, we can get a sense of the complexity of the situation when we realize 39 seats in the last election were won by a Liberal candidate with the NDP in third place. In those ridings, a collapse of the Liberal vote could result in the PCs winning the seat, even if much of the Liberal vote went to the NDP.
In addition, there were at least 11 seats last election where all three of the principal parties had enough votes that a small change could alter the order of how the parties finish this time around.
And there are seats where the disappearance of a sitting member (such as the NDP member Jagmeet Singh’s move to federal politics, the retirement of former PC leader Tim Hudak and the retirement of several Liberal cabinet members) may change the calculus for voters in those seats.
And to repeat — all the riding boundaries have changed. With the above caveats in mind, what can we say about where votes may go if people are leaving the Liberals?
Changing parties
Before the 1980s, many political scientists believed people’s associations with political parties were formed almost at birth — inherited from parents and reinforced by stable communities in which they lived.
But since then we have come to believe party affiliations, where they exist at all, are quite volatile. Communities change rapidly and even political parties change names, policies and campaign styles from year to year.
Knowing now that people can vote differently from election to election, we’ve become more interested in what people’s second-choice party is, assuming they have a first. That might give us some idea where they will move if they leave their preferred alternative.
Ontario Premier William Davis smiles after being re-elected in his Brampton riding in the Ontario provincial election on June 9, 1977. THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Ron Poling
Back in 1977 a colleague and I, conducting an Ontario voter survey, posed a question about second choices. People who told us they planned to vote for the NDP that year divided about half and half between the Liberals and Conservatives as their second choice; Conservative voters gave the Liberals their second choice by a two-to-one margin over the NDP, and Liberal voters gave their second choice to the PCs by about the same margin.
One could have concluded the NDP had very little likelihood of success in that circumstance, but 13 years later, in 1990, they formed the government. And I suspect the second choices of Ontario voters are very different now that Doug Ford, rather than Bill Davis, is leading the PCs.
That means it’s hard to say where Liberal voters will go in any particular riding if the party’s share of the vote declines as predicted. So a number of possible scenarios can be imagined.
Majority or minority government?
It’s clear the Liberals can’t recover enough to win a majority of the legislature’s seats, and given the concentration of the NDP vote in particular areas, it would also be surprising as well if the New Democrats won a majority. (Of course, we were surprised in 1990 when the NDP captured a solid majority with under 39 per cent of the popular vote.) If there is a majority government, it seems most likely it will be Conservative.
Ontario Premier David Peterson (right), NDP Leader Bob Rae and Conservative Leader Mike Harris (left) stand together prior to a leaders debate in August 1990. The NDP shocked pundits to win the election, the first time New Democrats had formed a government in Ontario. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Hans Deryk
The possibilities for minority government are much more numerous. Suppose the PCs win a plurality of seats, but not a majority. They would then have a legitimate claim that Ontario’s lieutenant governor should invite Ford to form a government.
Wynne will still be premier until a new government is sworn in. If her party was to make a late surge and hold on to some of its seats, she could ask that the legislature be called into session and could attempt to make an agreement with the NDP (or less likely, the PCs) to hold onto office.
NDP got no credit after coalition
If she winds up in third place in terms of seats however, her claim to continued power would be significantly weaker. The closest (though not perfect) analogy is found after the election of 1985 when the PCs, having lost a majority, asked for the legislature’s confidence in the hopes of continuing to govern.
They had managed minority governments from 1975 to 1981, and might have hoped to do so again. However, David Peterson’s Liberals and Bob Rae’s NDP agreed to withhold confidence from the PC government.
They settled on an accord by which the NDP would agree not to cast non-confidence votes against the Liberal government, headed by Peterson, for two years in return for the Liberals’ agreeing to pursue an agenda on which the two parties could agree.
At the end of the two years, the Liberals coasted to a sizeable majority, leaving the NDP to wonder why they got no credit for the accomplishments of the accord.
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath has expressly ruled out a coalition with the Liberals, though that position makes sense if you think you can get a majority, but less sense if it means Ford would consequently become premier.
If the NDP holds a plurality of seats, or even the second-largest number of seats, a prudent strategy might well be to seek some sort of agreement from the Liberals (as an agreement with the PCs seems very unlikely). The Liberals may resist such a call, however, remembering the NDP’s fate following the 1985-1987 coalition government, and then another election could come sooner than we think.
Robert Drummond is a University Professor Emeritus, Politics and Public Policy/Administration, York University, Canada.
OPINION: This is what could happen after Ontario goes to the polls
Robert Drummond THE CONVERSATION
Published June 2, 2018 - 2:03pm
Last Updated June 2, 2018 - 5:42pm
Kathleen Wynne has publicly conceded she won’t be premier after Ontario residents go to the polls this Thursday. The unusual acknowledgement came with a plea from the premier to ask voters to elect enough of her Liberal candidates to ensure a minority NDP or Progressive Conservative government.
The move by Wynne was another unexpected development in a campaign that has had many surprises since it started a few weeks ago. And although the results of the election will be known Thursday, the people of Ontario may have to wait a while to know who will form what sort of government.
Clearly, if one party wins a majority of the seats, they will form the government, but polls to date suggest the results may not be that straightforward. The Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats are within the margin of error of a tie in popular vote, but the trailing Liberals could still have a significant impact on the final result.
A further complication, of course, is the fact that results will vary considerably from riding to riding.
Ridings in play
Since the last election, the boundaries of Ontario constituencies have been redrawn, so it’s not easy to translate past results into current predictions.
However, we can get a sense of the complexity of the situation when we realize 39 seats in the last election were won by a Liberal candidate with the NDP in third place. In those ridings, a collapse of the Liberal vote could result in the PCs winning the seat, even if much of the Liberal vote went to the NDP.
In addition, there were at least 11 seats last election where all three of the principal parties had enough votes that a small change could alter the order of how the parties finish this time around.
And there are seats where the disappearance of a sitting member (such as the NDP member Jagmeet Singh’s move to federal politics, the retirement of former PC leader Tim Hudak and the retirement of several Liberal cabinet members) may change the calculus for voters in those seats.
And to repeat — all the riding boundaries have changed. With the above caveats in mind, what can we say about where votes may go if people are leaving the Liberals?
Changing parties
Before the 1980s, many political scientists believed people’s associations with political parties were formed almost at birth — inherited from parents and reinforced by stable communities in which they lived.
But since then we have come to believe party affiliations, where they exist at all, are quite volatile. Communities change rapidly and even political parties change names, policies and campaign styles from year to year.
Knowing now that people can vote differently from election to election, we’ve become more interested in what people’s second-choice party is, assuming they have a first. That might give us some idea where they will move if they leave their preferred alternative.
Ontario Premier William Davis smiles after being re-elected in his Brampton riding in the Ontario provincial election on June 9, 1977. THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Ron Poling
Back in 1977 a colleague and I, conducting an Ontario voter survey, posed a question about second choices. People who told us they planned to vote for the NDP that year divided about half and half between the Liberals and Conservatives as their second choice; Conservative voters gave the Liberals their second choice by a two-to-one margin over the NDP, and Liberal voters gave their second choice to the PCs by about the same margin.
One could have concluded the NDP had very little likelihood of success in that circumstance, but 13 years later, in 1990, they formed the government. And I suspect the second choices of Ontario voters are very different now that Doug Ford, rather than Bill Davis, is leading the PCs.
That means it’s hard to say where Liberal voters will go in any particular riding if the party’s share of the vote declines as predicted. So a number of possible scenarios can be imagined.
Majority or minority government?
It’s clear the Liberals can’t recover enough to win a majority of the legislature’s seats, and given the concentration of the NDP vote in particular areas, it would also be surprising as well if the New Democrats won a majority. (Of course, we were surprised in 1990 when the NDP captured a solid majority with under 39 per cent of the popular vote.) If there is a majority government, it seems most likely it will be Conservative.
Ontario Premier David Peterson (right), NDP Leader Bob Rae and Conservative Leader Mike Harris (left) stand together prior to a leaders debate in August 1990. The NDP shocked pundits to win the election, the first time New Democrats had formed a government in Ontario. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Hans Deryk
The possibilities for minority government are much more numerous. Suppose the PCs win a plurality of seats, but not a majority. They would then have a legitimate claim that Ontario’s lieutenant governor should invite Ford to form a government.
Wynne will still be premier until a new government is sworn in. If her party was to make a late surge and hold on to some of its seats, she could ask that the legislature be called into session and could attempt to make an agreement with the NDP (or less likely, the PCs) to hold onto office.
NDP got no credit after coalition
If she winds up in third place in terms of seats however, her claim to continued power would be significantly weaker. The closest (though not perfect) analogy is found after the election of 1985 when the PCs, having lost a majority, asked for the legislature’s confidence in the hopes of continuing to govern.
They had managed minority governments from 1975 to 1981, and might have hoped to do so again. However, David Peterson’s Liberals and Bob Rae’s NDP agreed to withhold confidence from the PC government.
They settled on an accord by which the NDP would agree not to cast non-confidence votes against the Liberal government, headed by Peterson, for two years in return for the Liberals’ agreeing to pursue an agenda on which the two parties could agree.
At the end of the two years, the Liberals coasted to a sizeable majority, leaving the NDP to wonder why they got no credit for the accomplishments of the accord.
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath has expressly ruled out a coalition with the Liberals, though that position makes sense if you think you can get a majority, but less sense if it means Ford would consequently become premier.
If the NDP holds a plurality of seats, or even the second-largest number of seats, a prudent strategy might well be to seek some sort of agreement from the Liberals (as an agreement with the PCs seems very unlikely). The Liberals may resist such a call, however, remembering the NDP’s fate following the 1985-1987 coalition government, and then another election could come sooner than we think.
Robert Drummond is a University Professor Emeritus, Politics and Public Policy/Administration, York University, Canada.
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Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford holds a rally to speak about Hydro One in Toronto on May 15, 2018. Unanswered questions about Ford’s personal conduct may give pause to some voters who might otherwise have supported the Progressive Conservatives, Martin Regg Cohn writes. (Aaron Vincent Elkaim / THE CANADIAN PRESS)
Man of the people. Businessman. Family man.
But does the real person fit the persona?
Is Doug Ford his brother’s keeper? What about the rest of us?
Is he the keeper of his late brother’s widow and their two surviving children?
Not according to the stunning allegations in a $16.5 million lawsuit filed by Renata Ford last week (on behalf of her children and herself) against Doug Ford and his surviving brother Randy Ford, co-owners of Deco, their late father’s label printing business.
She accuses him of siphoning about $5 million from her late husband’s estate through a combination of manipulation and deprivation of what she claims should go to her and the children. The claims — not least that she hasn’t yet received the proceeds of Rob Ford’s $220,000 life insurance policy which remain under Doug Ford’s control — remain unproven.
All the allegations are strongly denied by Doug Ford and dismissed by his mother Diane, who in a written statement denounced her daughter-in-law as a drug addict (an accusation she never made publicly about her late son Rob while he ran an entire city and smoked crack cocaine).
Now, on the eve of Thursday’s election, a matter that may one day be contested in a court of law is being assessed in the court of public opinion by voters who have every reason — and right — to wonder what is going on.
But we are at a distinct disadvantage. While Doug Ford would have to answer questions under oath during the legal process of discovery, and testify on the witness stand, he feels no obligation to answer specific questions on the campaign stump.
Doug Ford, who cheerfully mocks the (admittedly) overpaid CEO of Hydro One as the “Six Million Dollar Man,” is now accused of overpaying himself with “extravagant compensation” while short changing his late brother’s widow and children. Not true, Ford insists, but there’s a difference between merely denying and disproving an allegation.
In a brief encounter with reporters Tuesday, Ford ignored repeated questions as to whether he would release audited financial statements so as to show voters that Deco is still the successful business he has long claimed it to be — and which the lawsuit asserts it has long ceased to be.
Nor did he respond to questions from reporters about his remuneration over the years as CEO at Deco if, as the lawsuit claims, it was a money-losing operation on his watch. Conjuring up the refusals of Donald Trump to release his tax returns when running for the presidency, Ford declined to answer.
That’s unfortunate. Releasing Deco’s financial statements, and disclosing his compensation package — “paid regardless of the financial performance of those businesses,” according to the lawsuit — is surely not asking too much given that he is asking us, as voters, to repose our trust in him for the next four years running a $150-billion concern at Queen’s Park (Canada’s second-biggest government).
There are legitimate questions of public interest — quite apart from a private family dispute — that arise from this legal matter now that it’s in the public domain.
Unless the matter is one day settled out of court, a judge will ultimately decide whether Doug Ford acted properly or deceptively in dealing with a widow and her children. Among the allegations that the judge may pronounce upon is whether Ford has the educational qualifications to run Deco, the business he inherited from his father — a question many voters are asking themselves in terms of his qualifications to be premier.
The lawsuit claims “neither Doug Ford nor Randy Ford have the education and business ability to justify their employment as senior officers of Deco.”
Any judge’s verdict is a long way off. But the people’s verdict is barely a day away, and Ford has proven himself to be a persuasive salesman throughout his life.
He has personalized the Progressive Conservative campaign from the start, displacing the party’s brand with his own trademark Ford Nation labelling. A sign at his campaign podium declares “Doug Ford — for the people.”
The fully-costed policy platform that he promised to deliver has never materialized, replaced by Ford’s sales pitch that he is a man of the people, against the elites, and a prudent steward of his company’s finances. By minimizing policy and maximizing personality, Ford has made his own character pre-eminent in this campaign.
Now, unanswered questions about his personal conduct may give pause to some voters who might otherwise have supported the Progressive Conservatives. Or perhaps people will explain away the latest allegations as a bitter court fight over money, as Ford has suggested.
Trust me, Ford says. Even if his late brother’s widow apparently doesn’t.
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TORONTO -- Ontario's Progressive Conservatives under Doug Ford are set to head into voting day Thursday essentially tied with Andrea Horwath's New Democrats, a new poll suggests.
The Leger online poll, released Tuesday, indicates the Tories have the support of 39 per cent of decided voters, with the NDP just a single point behind.
Christian Bourque, executive vice-president of Leger, says the seeming dead heat, if it holds on voting day, will likely favour Ford given the distribution of the Tory vote.
"A statistical tie in the popular vote is to the advantage of the Conservatives," he said.
The Liberals continue to trail badly with just 18 per cent support, according to the survey. Of interest, however, is that the survey found Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne's dramatic "I will no longer be Ontario's premier" announcement on the weekend had little effect on voters, Bourque said.
Wynne has been pleading with Liberals since then to still back the party -- ostensibly to keep Ford or Horwath from forming a majority government.
The results of the survey, conducted between June 1 and June 4, are similar to those Leger found about two weeks ago, when the NDP and the Tories were also statistically tied.
Despite failing to produce a costed platform and allegations of wrongdoing against several of their candidates, Ford has managed to hang on as a front-runner, the poll suggests. The Tory decline that marked the first phase of the campaign has stopped, Bourque said, and the party's support has stabilized.
"They do look solid heading into voting day," Bourque said.
A big difference with the previous survey is that voting intentions appear much firmer now, with under 20 per cent of responders saying they have yet to make up their minds -- down from more than one third last time.
Like the previous poll, the New Democrats remain the favourite second choice, but far fewer voters are still looking for an alternative to their first choice.
In other survey results, Horwath continues to enjoy the highest approval rating -- 25 per cent of respondents indicating she would make the best premier -- just ahead of Ford at 23 per cent.
Wynne remains deeply unpopular, with just 14 per cent holding her up as best premier, the poll suggests.
Ford, who took over the Tory party earlier this year after his predecessor Patrick Brown resigned amid sexual harassment allegations he denies, is backed more by men than women, while the opposite holds for Horwath.
The survey heard from 1,008 people eligible to vote in the Ontario election. Leger says it used 2016 census data to weight the results by age, sex, mother tongue, region and education to ensure what it says is a representative sample of the population.
However, the polling industry's professional body, the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error as they are not a random sample and therefore are not necessarily representative of the whole population.
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http://bbs.comefromchina.com/threads/1634915/
With a day to go, Ontario election is still Doug Ford's to lose
With a day to go, Ontario election is still Doug Ford's to lose
