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https://www.quora.com/Who-will-win-the-2018-Ontario-general-election
(說最高票，與知乎的高票比起來還是差了兩、三個數量級呀)
作者：Kevyn Nightingale
The Progressive Conservative (“PC”) party will win the 2018 Ontario general election. The only question is whether it will be a majority or minority.
Credentials: I live in Toronto, the capital of Ontario. I have been involved in politics since I was 10, and I have run for (federal) office here.
This is mostly an election of whom you don’t want, not whom you do want. In that regard, it bears some similarity to the 2016 US presidential election. However, it’s different in that:
Kathleen Wynne, the Premier, is running for re-election.
She is incredibly unpopular, and stands no chance of winning. There is a reasonable chance her Ontario Liberal Party (always #1 or 2) will end up with no MPPs (Members of Provincial Parliament). Yes - zero.
That leaves the race to New Democratic Party and the PC party.
All of the parties are taking the “chicken in every pot” approach - making promises with money they don’t have. The Liberals’ plan, “care not cuts”, is fully costed. But so what.
The Tories
That’s PC, for those of you outside of Canada and the UK.
PCs are historically the party of fiscal responsibility, or at least they attempt to be and pretend to be. In the end, political pressures often force them to spend on things they’d rather not, and run deficits instead of balanced budgets.
There’s a small-c conservative base of about 30% across Canada. This base is made up of a mixture of people who are libertarian, social conservatives, and business-oriented types (among others). They tend to be suburban and rural, and are the same kinds of people who support conservatives around the world.
When middle-of -the-road voters (“purple”, in US lingo) are upset about large-l Liberals treating government as their own private fiefdom, another 10 percentage points or so will migrate over to the Tories. This is when they win.
For the last couple of years, they Tories have been consistently polling at about 40%. This is close to their ceiling. In a three-party First-past-the-post voting system, that’s usually enough to win a majority government. In Canada, a majority government is effectively a 4-year dictatorship.
The recent scandal (okay, fake scandal), which caused the party to change leaders didn’t make a dent in the polling numbers. That 10% really wanted to get rid of Kathleen Wynne
The PC party is lead by Doug Ford Jr. He’s a decent guy, and comes from a political dynasty that has made hay out of being “for the people”. Doug inherited his father’s label-making business, and he’s rich. Really rich. He also doesn’t come across as sincere - a distinct liability for a populist.
The NDP
The NDP is self-admittedly socialist. It would like to emulate the French and German version of socialism, although it says it prefers the Scandinavian approach.
Ordinarily, the NDP is supported by unionized government workers, students, and a few other artsy, downtown types. Federally, and in Ontario it typically runs third at 15–20%. That matters when we have a “minority” government (a “hung parliament” in UK terms).
It has only once (1990) formed government in Ontario. Most people saw that as an anomaly, not least, the leader, Bob Rae, who became premier. He subsequently left the NDP and became a Liberal. He wrote books about his experience, and they explain why the NDP is not suited to form government.
There have been many new voters in Ontario since this experiment, and to them this is just so much ancient history.
The NDP is led by Andrea Horwath. She’s a likable, pleasant-looking woman (don’t underestimate the value of that at the ballot box). She’s a former union organizer.
The NDP plan “Change for the Better” is costed, except for *whoops* a $1.4 billion (yes, that’s a “b”) annual mathematical error. This is a big deal, not just a clerical error, as I’ll explain later.
The race
The PCs have held steady at about 40% for a long time. Lately, they’ve dropped a few points off of that, as a few voters see the NDP as a serious possibility to de-throne Kathleen Wynne. But most observers see the Tory vote as rock solid - unlikely to migrate.
By contrast, the NDP and Liberals have been fighting for the left-wing vote. Each has tried to propose more government than the other, in an effort to win over particularly the youth vote, which is leaning more and more socialist.
As of this writing (2018–05–27), the two parties are tied in polling at 36%. That means 71 seats for the Tories (a majority), and 51 for the NDP. The Liberals, at 21%, are on track for 3 seats.
Conservatives, being older and more likely to have families, are more likely to show up to vote than younger voters. Also, the PC vote is spread across more parts of the province, whereas the NDP vote is heavily concentrated in the urban areas. These two factors are the reason a PC-NDP popular vote tie will almost certainly end up with a PC majority. The NDP needs about a 9 percentage point winning gap to win the most seats.
Eric Grenier, of the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, sees it this way. He is a poll aggregator, and his methodology has proven pretty reliable over time.
At 21%, I think the Liberals are about as low as they can go. There are a lot of “business liberals” who just won’t stomach voting NDP. This vote-split on the left will yield a majority PC government (well, probably a majority)
Bête noire
Each political party has a bête noire - something that just smells wrong to a lot of people. Parties try to market themselves against this type, either by focusing on the things that makes them appealing, by “innoculating” themselves against the problem, or both.
Ford
In the case of conservative parties everywhere, this is the idea that it is the vehicle of rich people to keep themselves rich at the expense of everyone else. They are vulnerable to charges of racism, homophobia, mysogyny and lack of care for the environment; they have no concern for the the “little guy”.
Doug Ford offers some risks here. He is rich. Worse, he inherited his money. He’s a big, fat, middle-aged white man. Put a black suit and tophat on him, and he would look a lot like Rich Uncle Pennybags, the Monopoly man.
On the other hand, over the course of decades the Ford family (including his father, an MPP, and his late brother, formerly mayor of Toronto) built a populist following among new immigrants. The family has a sincere sense of noblesse oblige, a phrase they would never use, preferring “giving back”. Ford Nation really is a thing. People show up in thousands to hear him speak, even though he’s not a particularly scintillating speaker. The crowds are multi-hued, if anything, reflecting a more diverse, and less affluent support group than Ontario itself.
Ford is not an ideologue. He’s generally conservatively-oriented, but there is no serious philosophical consistency.
The fact that the PCs have not provided a costed platform doesn’t impact their brand very much, because people take it for granted that the party will do its utmost to balance the books as quickly as reasonably possibly.
He does not come across as particularly intellectual. That actually works in his favor. People are scared of intellectual conservatives - just look at Stephen Harper. It works better when they seem just a little less sharp - Mike Harris was the best at playing this role. It’s not an accident he was known as “Mike”. If you’re American, you know that Ronald Reagan was known as the Great Communicator, not the Great Intellect.
Horwath
The bête noire for the NDP is fiscal irresponsibility. They will tax-and-spend, or worse, spend-and-not-tax (yielding big deficits and debt). For a long time, voters remembered the Rae government and vowed never to repeat that again.
This is why the $1.4B math error matters to the NDP.
But this campaign reflects a profligacy not yet advertised in Ontario politics.
They’re fighting with the Liberals for the same left-wing vote. They don’t really care about fiscal responsibility, because their target voters don’t get it. They’re younger, and less responsible themselves. In Toronto, they don’t think they’ll every be able to afford a house, to they’re happy to hear that richer voters will be taxed more heavily. They’re happy to see new taxes imposed on homeowners.
(“Don’t tax thee, and don’t tax me - tax that guy behind the tree”).
It has an appeal. It might win a plurality of votes (but I think not). It won’t win a majority of seats (thankfully).
(說最高票，與知乎的高票比起來還是差了兩、三個數量級呀)
作者：Kevyn Nightingale
The Progressive Conservative (“PC”) party will win the 2018 Ontario general election. The only question is whether it will be a majority or minority.
Credentials: I live in Toronto, the capital of Ontario. I have been involved in politics since I was 10, and I have run for (federal) office here.
This is mostly an election of whom you don’t want, not whom you do want. In that regard, it bears some similarity to the 2016 US presidential election. However, it’s different in that:
Kathleen Wynne, the Premier, is running for re-election.
She is incredibly unpopular, and stands no chance of winning. There is a reasonable chance her Ontario Liberal Party (always #1 or 2) will end up with no MPPs (Members of Provincial Parliament). Yes - zero.
That leaves the race to New Democratic Party and the PC party.
All of the parties are taking the “chicken in every pot” approach - making promises with money they don’t have. The Liberals’ plan, “care not cuts”, is fully costed. But so what.
The Tories
That’s PC, for those of you outside of Canada and the UK.
PCs are historically the party of fiscal responsibility, or at least they attempt to be and pretend to be. In the end, political pressures often force them to spend on things they’d rather not, and run deficits instead of balanced budgets.
There’s a small-c conservative base of about 30% across Canada. This base is made up of a mixture of people who are libertarian, social conservatives, and business-oriented types (among others). They tend to be suburban and rural, and are the same kinds of people who support conservatives around the world.
When middle-of -the-road voters (“purple”, in US lingo) are upset about large-l Liberals treating government as their own private fiefdom, another 10 percentage points or so will migrate over to the Tories. This is when they win.
For the last couple of years, they Tories have been consistently polling at about 40%. This is close to their ceiling. In a three-party First-past-the-post voting system, that’s usually enough to win a majority government. In Canada, a majority government is effectively a 4-year dictatorship.
The recent scandal (okay, fake scandal), which caused the party to change leaders didn’t make a dent in the polling numbers. That 10% really wanted to get rid of Kathleen Wynne
The PC party is lead by Doug Ford Jr. He’s a decent guy, and comes from a political dynasty that has made hay out of being “for the people”. Doug inherited his father’s label-making business, and he’s rich. Really rich. He also doesn’t come across as sincere - a distinct liability for a populist.
The NDP
The NDP is self-admittedly socialist. It would like to emulate the French and German version of socialism, although it says it prefers the Scandinavian approach.
Ordinarily, the NDP is supported by unionized government workers, students, and a few other artsy, downtown types. Federally, and in Ontario it typically runs third at 15–20%. That matters when we have a “minority” government (a “hung parliament” in UK terms).
It has only once (1990) formed government in Ontario. Most people saw that as an anomaly, not least, the leader, Bob Rae, who became premier. He subsequently left the NDP and became a Liberal. He wrote books about his experience, and they explain why the NDP is not suited to form government.
There have been many new voters in Ontario since this experiment, and to them this is just so much ancient history.
The NDP is led by Andrea Horwath. She’s a likable, pleasant-looking woman (don’t underestimate the value of that at the ballot box). She’s a former union organizer.
The NDP plan “Change for the Better” is costed, except for *whoops* a $1.4 billion (yes, that’s a “b”) annual mathematical error. This is a big deal, not just a clerical error, as I’ll explain later.
The race
The PCs have held steady at about 40% for a long time. Lately, they’ve dropped a few points off of that, as a few voters see the NDP as a serious possibility to de-throne Kathleen Wynne. But most observers see the Tory vote as rock solid - unlikely to migrate.
By contrast, the NDP and Liberals have been fighting for the left-wing vote. Each has tried to propose more government than the other, in an effort to win over particularly the youth vote, which is leaning more and more socialist.
As of this writing (2018–05–27), the two parties are tied in polling at 36%. That means 71 seats for the Tories (a majority), and 51 for the NDP. The Liberals, at 21%, are on track for 3 seats.
Conservatives, being older and more likely to have families, are more likely to show up to vote than younger voters. Also, the PC vote is spread across more parts of the province, whereas the NDP vote is heavily concentrated in the urban areas. These two factors are the reason a PC-NDP popular vote tie will almost certainly end up with a PC majority. The NDP needs about a 9 percentage point winning gap to win the most seats.
Eric Grenier, of the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, sees it this way. He is a poll aggregator, and his methodology has proven pretty reliable over time.
At 21%, I think the Liberals are about as low as they can go. There are a lot of “business liberals” who just won’t stomach voting NDP. This vote-split on the left will yield a majority PC government (well, probably a majority)
Bête noire
Each political party has a bête noire - something that just smells wrong to a lot of people. Parties try to market themselves against this type, either by focusing on the things that makes them appealing, by “innoculating” themselves against the problem, or both.
Ford
In the case of conservative parties everywhere, this is the idea that it is the vehicle of rich people to keep themselves rich at the expense of everyone else. They are vulnerable to charges of racism, homophobia, mysogyny and lack of care for the environment; they have no concern for the the “little guy”.
Doug Ford offers some risks here. He is rich. Worse, he inherited his money. He’s a big, fat, middle-aged white man. Put a black suit and tophat on him, and he would look a lot like Rich Uncle Pennybags, the Monopoly man.
On the other hand, over the course of decades the Ford family (including his father, an MPP, and his late brother, formerly mayor of Toronto) built a populist following among new immigrants. The family has a sincere sense of noblesse oblige, a phrase they would never use, preferring “giving back”. Ford Nation really is a thing. People show up in thousands to hear him speak, even though he’s not a particularly scintillating speaker. The crowds are multi-hued, if anything, reflecting a more diverse, and less affluent support group than Ontario itself.
Ford is not an ideologue. He’s generally conservatively-oriented, but there is no serious philosophical consistency.
The fact that the PCs have not provided a costed platform doesn’t impact their brand very much, because people take it for granted that the party will do its utmost to balance the books as quickly as reasonably possibly.
He does not come across as particularly intellectual. That actually works in his favor. People are scared of intellectual conservatives - just look at Stephen Harper. It works better when they seem just a little less sharp - Mike Harris was the best at playing this role. It’s not an accident he was known as “Mike”. If you’re American, you know that Ronald Reagan was known as the Great Communicator, not the Great Intellect.
Horwath
The bête noire for the NDP is fiscal irresponsibility. They will tax-and-spend, or worse, spend-and-not-tax (yielding big deficits and debt). For a long time, voters remembered the Rae government and vowed never to repeat that again.
This is why the $1.4B math error matters to the NDP.
But this campaign reflects a profligacy not yet advertised in Ontario politics.
They’re fighting with the Liberals for the same left-wing vote. They don’t really care about fiscal responsibility, because their target voters don’t get it. They’re younger, and less responsible themselves. In Toronto, they don’t think they’ll every be able to afford a house, to they’re happy to hear that richer voters will be taxed more heavily. They’re happy to see new taxes imposed on homeowners.
(“Don’t tax thee, and don’t tax me - tax that guy behind the tree”).
It has an appeal. It might win a plurality of votes (but I think not). It won’t win a majority of seats (thankfully).
先民們有些恐懼、有些不便、吃虧，也都捱過去了。我想文明必須要有這些脫離現實的白日夢。不一定每次都是他贏，但要這些夢想要讓每個人都有，照亮每個人心裡，發芽茁壯。
