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Ontario Votes 2018
Poll Tracker
Maintained by CBC poll analyst Éric Grenier, the Poll Tracker aggregates all publicly available polling data to follow the trends of the June 7th election.
Latest polls and projections
Updated on June 06, 2018
Poll averages
PC
38.7%
+0.9
NDP
35.5%
-0.7
LIB
19.6%
+0.3
GRN
4.9%
-0.3
OTH
1.3%
-0.2
Seat projections
minority majority
PC78
5589
NDP45
3260
LIB1
15
GRN0
1
OTH0
Probability of winning
89.7%
Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority
3.9%
Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
2.3%
Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority
3.3%
Probability of the NDP winning a majority
Doug Ford's PCs have moved ahead of Andrea Horwath's New Democrats in the polls, but despite the relatively close race in the popular vote the PCs have a better regional distribution of that vote and so are heavily favoured to win more seats. The NDP's forward momentum appears to have stalled. It is no coincidence that the Liberal slide has also slowed, leaving the party with just enough support to be competitive in a handful of ridings.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/
Poll Tracker
Maintained by CBC poll analyst Éric Grenier, the Poll Tracker aggregates all publicly available polling data to follow the trends of the June 7th election.
Latest polls and projections
Updated on June 06, 2018
Poll averages
PC
38.7%
+0.9
NDP
35.5%
-0.7
LIB
19.6%
+0.3
GRN
4.9%
-0.3
OTH
1.3%
-0.2
Seat projections
minority majority
PC78
5589
NDP45
3260
LIB1
15
GRN0
1
OTH0
Probability of winning
89.7%
Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority
3.9%
Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
2.3%
Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority
3.3%
Probability of the NDP winning a majority
Doug Ford's PCs have moved ahead of Andrea Horwath's New Democrats in the polls, but despite the relatively close race in the popular vote the PCs have a better regional distribution of that vote and so are heavily favoured to win more seats. The NDP's forward momentum appears to have stalled. It is no coincidence that the Liberal slide has also slowed, leaving the party with just enough support to be competitive in a handful of ridings.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/
