特朗普总统为什么对美国中期选举如此在意：事与愿违，共和党失去众议院多数；佛罗里达州重新点票
- 主题发起人 ccc
- 开始时间
- 注册
- 2003-04-13
- 消息
- 238,500
- 荣誉分数
- 37,858
- 声望点数
- 1,393
The Nov. 6 U.S. midterm elections are seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump. While voter turnout will have a huge impact on the results, at this point the pundits have the Democrats winning the popular vote and gaining control of the House of Representatives, while the Republicans hang on to the Senate. (JIM WATSON / AFP/GETTY IMAGES)
Turnout is expected to be high. A driving force, on both sides, is rage: rage toward the president; rage the president has tried to foment against migrants, the news media and Democrats, among others.
This is not a “the economy, stupid” kind of election. Despite the low unemployment rate, Democrats are favoured to win the popular vote and win control of the House of Representatives on the intensity of opposition to Trump among people of colour and college-educated white women. Trump, going with his gut over the guidance of some party officials, has chosen a fearmongering focus on immigration over a sunny-days message of rising prosperity.
In a three-rally blitz on Monday, Trump painted an apocalyptic and wildly dishonest picture of what might happen if voters pick the “Democrat mob” over Republicans: cities overrun with dangerous illegal immigrants, steel mills shut down, citizens kicked off their health care.
Democrats, who have campaigned on health care above all else, closed with a more factual warning: Republicans have long tried to replace Obamacare with laws that would weaken protections for people with pre-existing health conditions, and they will do so again if they are given new majorities.
The midterms battleground is much wider than in presidential elections, with competitive contests everywhere from the plains of North Dakota to the wealthy California coastal suburbs of Orange County. Hovering over every race is Trump, who is both a blessing and a curse for his party.
The election will be decided in two distinct kinds of places. Many of the key House races are in affluent suburban districts where Trump underperformed in 2016 and polls suggest many women have grown ever more dismayed by his behaviour. Republican House strategists worry his scorched-earth rhetoric will do more harm than good in these districts.
But many of the key Senate battlegrounds are conservative states, like Missouri and Montana, where Trump excelled in 2016 and remains popular. Republicans are favoured to maintain or slightly expand their slim 51-seat to 49-seat Senate advantage, and Trump’s ability to strategically inflame white-working-class and rural conservatives may be a key factor.
Democrats need 23 seats to take the House. Aided by Republican retirements and an unprecedented flood of donations, most of them from women, they appear to be nearly guaranteed to gain at least somewhere in the mid-to-high teens. But 23 is no sure thing: polls suggest their leads are narrow in many of the seats that could push them into the mid-20s or even the mid-30s.
The final polls varied, but they were generally good for Democrats. A CNN poll gave Democrats the largest margin, a 13-point advantage; an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll had the Democratic lead at 7 points. Forecasting website FiveThirtyEight gave Democrats an 88 per cent chance to win the House, Republicans an 81 per cent chance to keep the Senate.
Even if Republicans do hold on in the Senate, a Democratic takeover of the House would be a pivotal moment in Trump’s presidency. Democrats would gain the power to thwart Republicans’ legislative agenda, launch investigations into Trump’s activities, subpoena his officials, obtain his tax returns, and, possibly, to impeach him at some point in the future.
A Democratic House victory would also serve as a warning to Republican officeholders about their policies, their devotion to the president, and the brand of campaigning they have chosen this time. Trump has closed the race with a torrent of lies, mostly about immigration, and a television ad so racist that Fox News announced it would stop airing it. “The character of our country is on the ballot,” former president Barack Obama said on Twitter on Monday.
Trump began last week to warn that a loss might be coming, suggesting it would not be a big problem: “My whole life, you know what I say? ‘Don’t worry about it, I’ll just figure it out.’” Bracing for defeat, he said on a conference call with supporters Monday that he wasn’t sure the election could fairly be considered a referendum on him. But at a rally in Cleveland later, he conceded, “In a sense, I am on the ticket.”
The surest sign of Trump’s concern about the House came in an interview with conservative Sinclair Broadcasting. For the first time in his presidency, he offered an actual answer when he was asked if he had any regrets.
“I would say tone. I would like to have a much softer tone,” he said. “I feel, to a certain extent, I have no choice. But maybe I do.”
- 注册
- 2012-09-04
- 消息
- 64,347
- 荣誉分数
- 11,953
- 声望点数
- 1,373
转
无论谁赢得中期选举，美国的分裂均不可避免。二战后，东西方各国经济发展迅速，然社会财富分配严重不均，到上世纪末，导致10%人口占70%社会财富，各国大致如此，无论独裁与民主。这种国内阶级矛盾，或曰贵族与贫民的矛盾导致各国政局不稳，也因此造就世界共产主义灭亡。世界社会发展已然进入了新一级，我们叫后民主时代，或国家资本主义时代。其政治核心就是在国家主义者的领导下对社会财富再分配，以缓解矛盾；制订切实可行的国家发展战略，有计划地优胜劣汰。各国都已经自觉与不自觉地认识到了这一层次，然具体实施则迥然有异。可以说，任何种族或国家若想继续生存下去，就必须要过渡到国家资本主义政治，而要有效切实完成这种过渡，光靠请客吃饭是不可能的，必须要过一道鬼门关，这鬼门关就是铁血社会大革命，否则完成不了社会升级，其结果就是你国必败！中国与俄罗斯都已经在上世纪末成功地，鲜血淋漓地通过了这道鬼门关，俄国人甚至因此被”割掉七斤肉”。现在轮到西方来过这道鬼门关。美国社会分裂如此之深前所未有，以致现行民主政制都已无法化解。三权分立，公民选举已形同虚设，既使一方胜选，另外一方也绝不会承认，且千方百计要推翻对方经民主机制而产生的权威。故尔每次选举均成为闹剧，均成为双方加剧仇杀的战场与机遇。选举越多，矛盾越多，仇恨亦愈深。所以选举在美国及整个西方都已成为分裂社会的马达，启动一分钟，分裂千公里。美国及西方要想成功进行21世纪社会升级，不进行”法国大革命””南北内战”，不摒弃民主政制则是不可能的！这道鬼门关你国必须要过，靠那个无用过时的选举武功是过不去这道鬼门关的。
无论谁赢得中期选举，美国的分裂均不可避免。二战后，东西方各国经济发展迅速，然社会财富分配严重不均，到上世纪末，导致10%人口占70%社会财富，各国大致如此，无论独裁与民主。这种国内阶级矛盾，或曰贵族与贫民的矛盾导致各国政局不稳，也因此造就世界共产主义灭亡。世界社会发展已然进入了新一级，我们叫后民主时代，或国家资本主义时代。其政治核心就是在国家主义者的领导下对社会财富再分配，以缓解矛盾；制订切实可行的国家发展战略，有计划地优胜劣汰。各国都已经自觉与不自觉地认识到了这一层次，然具体实施则迥然有异。可以说，任何种族或国家若想继续生存下去，就必须要过渡到国家资本主义政治，而要有效切实完成这种过渡，光靠请客吃饭是不可能的，必须要过一道鬼门关，这鬼门关就是铁血社会大革命，否则完成不了社会升级，其结果就是你国必败！中国与俄罗斯都已经在上世纪末成功地，鲜血淋漓地通过了这道鬼门关，俄国人甚至因此被”割掉七斤肉”。现在轮到西方来过这道鬼门关。美国社会分裂如此之深前所未有，以致现行民主政制都已无法化解。三权分立，公民选举已形同虚设，既使一方胜选，另外一方也绝不会承认，且千方百计要推翻对方经民主机制而产生的权威。故尔每次选举均成为闹剧，均成为双方加剧仇杀的战场与机遇。选举越多，矛盾越多，仇恨亦愈深。所以选举在美国及整个西方都已成为分裂社会的马达，启动一分钟，分裂千公里。美国及西方要想成功进行21世纪社会升级，不进行”法国大革命””南北内战”，不摒弃民主政制则是不可能的！这道鬼门关你国必须要过，靠那个无用过时的选举武功是过不去这道鬼门关的。
- 注册
- 2012-09-04
- 消息
- 64,347
- 荣誉分数
- 11,953
- 声望点数
- 1,373
转
特朗普，这位美国最有才能的总统，在就职演说中说：
“ 长久以来，我们首都中的一小批人享用着利益的果实，而民众却要承受代价。华府欣欣向荣，却未和人民公诸同好。政客贪位慕禄，而工作渐渐流逝，工厂一一关闭。建制派自顾利禄，而忘记人民应该被保护。
他们的成功不属于你们，他们的光荣与你们无关，他们在首都庆贺，但是全国各地奋斗的一个个家庭却在挣扎。
我们国家中被遗忘的男男女女将不会再被遗忘。
此乃正直人民所发出的公正合理之诉求。但是对于大多数人来说，现实却远不相同。在内城中生活的母子们深陷贫穷，工厂锈迹斑斑好似墓碑，学校充斥权钱交易却让年轻学子得不到应有的知识。犯罪、黑帮还有毒品已经夺去了太多生命，盗走太多未能发觉的天赋。这场对美国人民的屠杀将在此时此地停止！ ”
美国究竟怎么啦？怎么会败成了这个样子？
特朗普，这位美国最有才能的总统，在就职演说中说：
“ 长久以来，我们首都中的一小批人享用着利益的果实，而民众却要承受代价。华府欣欣向荣，却未和人民公诸同好。政客贪位慕禄，而工作渐渐流逝，工厂一一关闭。建制派自顾利禄，而忘记人民应该被保护。
他们的成功不属于你们，他们的光荣与你们无关，他们在首都庆贺，但是全国各地奋斗的一个个家庭却在挣扎。
我们国家中被遗忘的男男女女将不会再被遗忘。
此乃正直人民所发出的公正合理之诉求。但是对于大多数人来说，现实却远不相同。在内城中生活的母子们深陷贫穷，工厂锈迹斑斑好似墓碑，学校充斥权钱交易却让年轻学子得不到应有的知识。犯罪、黑帮还有毒品已经夺去了太多生命，盗走太多未能发觉的天赋。这场对美国人民的屠杀将在此时此地停止！ ”
美国究竟怎么啦？怎么会败成了这个样子？
- 注册
- 2003-04-13
- 消息
- 238,500
- 荣誉分数
- 37,858
- 声望点数
- 1,393
