Conservative Party leadership race: Erin O'Toole当选为保守党领袖

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Who's next? Conservative speculation about Scheer's replacement breaks into the open
Leadership talk has been simmering since the election. On Thursday, it boiled over.
Kathleen Harris · CBC News · Posted: Dec 12, 2019 7:21 PM ET | Last Updated: 23 minutes ago

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Conservative MPs pay their respects to Leader of the Opposition Andrew Scheer following the announcement he will step down as leader of the Conservatives, Thursday, December 12, 2019 in the House of Commons. (Adrian Wyld / Canadian Press)

The race to replace Andrew Scheer is officially on.

Since the Conservative Party's near-miss in the October election, most prospective candidates have held back on revealing their ambitions. Now that Scheer's made the decision to quit, the rumour mill is grinding away louder than before.

An internal party review of the Conservatives' election performance is underway. Many within the party have already pointed to Scheer's leadership as the prime factor in the party's defeat.

Conservative commentator Geoff Norquay said the next leader must have a national vision that resonates with voters in urban areas, women and Canadians concerned about climate change.

After a campaign that saw Scheer struggle with questions about his positions on abortion and same-sex marriage, Norquay told CBC News the next leader must be confident in his or her positions and be happy to march in Pride parades.

Norquay said the next leader also must have a vision for policies on innovation, transitioning away from a carbon-fueled economy, cybersecurity and protecting personal information in the digital age.

Jamie Ellerton, who served as Scheer's media manager on the campaign tour, said the party needs a leader who can connect with Canadians everywhere.

"Conservatives need to go back to the drawing board and look at what Canadians are talking about today, look at the issues that Canadians are concerned about, that keep them up and night, and look at how Conservative principles and values can solve them today," he said.

Ellerton said the next leader can't be "stuck" in the mindset of 15 years ago, and should believe that support for same-sex marriage is a Conservative value that promotes strong families and communities.

Next steps for leadership
The next step in the leadership contest is for the Conservative Party's National Council to form a leadership election organizing committee, which will decide on the rules, procedures, process and timelines for the contest, said party spokesman Cory Hann.

The Conservatives already have a policy convention scheduled for April in Toronto, but it's not clear if that could also serve as the forum to pick a new leader.

"It'll be up to the Leadership Election Organizing Committee ultimately to determine what a reasonable timeline is," Hann said. "Policy conventions and leadership contests are both a lot of work, but what LEOC decides is what we'll work with."

The last time the Conservatives held a leadership contest — in 2017 — it was a crowded field of 16 candidates. Three of those candidates dropped out before the convention.

Maxime Bernier was considered the front-runner but ended up finishing a close second behind Scheer. Bernier left the party three months later, calling the Conservatives "morally corrupt" and announcing his plan to start up his own political party.

A year after that, he launched the People's Party of Canada. It was shut out in the last election and Bernier lost his own Beauce, Que. seat. (Bernier confirmed today he has no interest in running for the Conservative leadership again.)

Here's who might be in the running this time:

Peter MacKay

peter-mackay.jpg

Former Conservative cabinet minister Peter MacKay. (CBC News)

Nova Scotia's Peter MacKay is considered a "red Tory," with progressive positions on social policy issues.

MacKay told CBC News he has been receiving many calls to run, but still wants to speak with his family about a potential bid.

During an event at the Canada Institute in Washington, D.C. on Oct. 30, MacKay was asked for his thoughts on how the Conservatives failed to defeat Justin Trudeau's Liberals after the prime minister's major missteps.

"Yeah, to use a good Canadian analogy, it was like having a breakaway on an open net and missing the net," MacKay quipped.

Rona Ambrose

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Former interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose. (Fred Chartrand/The Canadian Press)

Ambrose served as the Conservative Party's interim leader after Stephen Harper stepped down, and was praised for her work in holding Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to account in the House of Commons.

The long-serving MP worked in various cabinet roles under Harper, including environment, health and labour.

After leaving politics in 2017, she served on Trudeau's NAFTA advisory panel and has worked for organizations advancing girl and women's rights.

Erin O'Toole

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Conservative MP Erin O'Toole. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

First elected federally in a 2012 byelection, O'Toole finished third in the 2017 leadership race.

He has a high profile on Parliament Hill as the party's foreign affairs critic, scrutinizing Trudeau's performance on the world stage and criticizing the Liberal government's handling of Canada-China relations.

A former military air force navigator, O'Toole served as veterans' affairs minister in Harper's cabinet.

Gérard Deltell

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Conservative MP Gérard Deltell. (Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press)

Deltell is a former journalist from Quebec City. He served as leader of the Action démocratique du Québec (ADQ) from 2009 until it merged with the Coalition Avenir Québec.

He moved into federal politics in 2015 and is considered a rising star in the Conservative Party.

He currently serves as the Conservative critic for intergovernmental affairs.

Brad Wall

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Former Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall. (CBC)

Wall served as the premier of Saskatchewan from 2007-2018, holding the position for three terms.

Under his leadership, the province experienced population and economic growth driven by the oil, gas and potash industries.

After leaving politics — and following the required year-long cooling off period for ex-provincial politicians taking positions with companies that might be doing business with the province — Wall was named to several corporation boards.

One of those is the board of a Calgary-based oil and gas company he had tried to attract to Saskatchewan.

Mark Mulroney

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Mark Mulroney (LinkedIn)

The son of former Progressive Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney now serves as vice-chairman of corporate and investment banking at Scotiabank.

A graduate of Duke University, Mulroney has held several senior positions on Bay Street. He has no political experience, but some Conservatives have been pressing him to join the race.

Many had speculated that his sister, Ontario provincial cabinet minister Caroline Mulroney, might be interested in the leadership, but she ruled that out Thursday.

Rod Phillips

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Ontario Finance Minister Rod Phillips. (Chris Young/The Canadian Press)

Now Ontario's finance minister, Phillips was a lawyer and businessman before entering politics. The Toronto Star reports he's considering a bid, while the Globe and Mail said his office has ruled out a leadership run.

He was also the president and CEO of the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation and chair of the Postmedia newspaper chain.

Christy Clark

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Former B.C. premier Christy Clark. (Darryl Dyck/Canadian Press)

Clark served as Liberal premier of British Columbia from 2011 to 2017 — the second woman in the province to hold the position.

In B.C. the Liberal Party leans to the right, and under her leadership the province moved toward a diversified economy, expanded markets and debt reduction.

Before entering politics, Clark worked as a radio show host and columnist.

Bernard Lord

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Former New Brunswick premier Bernard Lord. (Kate Letterick/CBC)

Lord served as premier of New Brunswick from 1999 to 2006.

After leaving politics, he served as CEO of the Canadian Wireless Telecommunication Association of Canada, a lobby group that represents cellular, wireless and mobile satellite companies.

He now serves as CEO of health company Medavie Inc.

Michelle Rempel Garner

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Conservative MP Michelle Garner Rempel. (Mike Symington/CBC News)

Alberta MP Michelle Garner Rempel was western diversification minister under Harper. She now serves as the Conservative critic for industry and economic development.

During the last Parliament, she served as immigration critic, scrutinizing Liberal policies on asylum seekers and pressing the government to take in Yazidi victims of genocide.

She has been named a top future leader by several organizations in the past.

Pierre Poilievre

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Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre. (The Canadian Press)

Ontario MP Pierre Poilievre has been an MP for six terms and is a former minister in Harper's cabinet.

He now serves as his party's finance critic.

Poilievre was a Franco-Albertan originally and was born in Calgary.
 

lindamy

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如果是马尔罗尼那不成了两位前总理的儿子对阵,官二代对官二代。而且马尔罗尼政治遗产不如土豆,有些不太光彩。
支持皮特出马。
 

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Who could replace Andrew Scheer as Conservative leader?

Jeremiah Rodriguez
CTVNews.ca Writer
Published Thursday, December 12, 2019 6:40PM EST

TORONTO -- The guessing game has kicked off as to who will replace Andrew Scheer as the leader of the federal Conservatives.

And although it’s extremely early and no candidates have officially put their names forward, some commentators are weighing in as to who could replace him.

Since the disappointing election results for the Conservatives, Scheer has fired several staff members and kicked off a post-mortem of the party’s showing – all amidst grumblings of insiders wanting him to step down.

Former minister of foreign affairs Peter MacKay has long been seen as a strong candidate for the role. He’s said the Conservatives' failing to defeat the Liberals on Oct. 21 "was like having a breakaway on an open net and missing the net." Before Scheer’s resignation, MacKay publicly distanced himself from rumours he was gunning for the party’s top job.

Conservative MP Erin O’Toole has also been cited as a name to keep an eye out for. Widely seen as a moderate, O’Toole finished third in the 2017 leadership race, but he’s not necessarily well-known across the country.

Former Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall has long been cited as a potential leader on the national level, but said two years ago that he was swearing off politics.


MULRONEY AND RAITT OUT

Some analysts have suggested Ontario Minister of Transportation Caroline Mulroney could vie for the role, but she put out a statement saying unequivocally that she is “not running for leader.”

Other names bandied about in Conservative ranks include Ontario MPs Pierre Poilievre and Michael Chong, as well as former Minister of International Trade Michael Fortier. But none have expressed any interest publicly.

CTV political commentator and former Conservative MP Lisa Raitt, whose name has been floated around as a possibility, has repeatedly stressed she doesn’t want the job. She reiterated that Thursday.

“What we should be focusing on is moving forward … and encouraging everyone out there who’ve been thinking about running that now’s your time,” she told CTV News Channel. “Get your name out … because if you’re early in the race you do have a better chance of winning.”

Rona Ambrose is another big name floating around. The interim leader of the Conservative Party between 2015 and 2017 has been praised for her performance during that period.


THE SOCIAL CONSERATIVE DILEMMA

Zain Velji, the former campaign manager for Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi, told CTV News Channel that for many conservatives, Scheer’s announcement “comes as no surprise.”

According to Velji, Scheer was widely seen as an “accidental leader in many ways,” who had cobbled together a loose coalition of pragmatic Conservatives who didn’t necessarily believe in him whole-heartedly.

Many feel Scheer owed his entire leadership to social conservatives including former MP Brad Trost, who threw their support behind Scheer at the 2017 convention. But by refusing to make statements against abortion and marriage equality, Scheer was left in an untenable position when it came to retaining that support.

Still, Scheer shifted the party further to the right to appeal to social conservatives, which Velji described as “a huge mistake” that cost him urban voters in ridings in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.

Bishiop’s University political science professor Jerald Sabin said Quebec, which he called “fertile ground” for Conservatives, would need to be better spoken to by the next leader.

He said Quebecers wouldn’t be opposed to a centre or centre-right party but they would need to focus more on provincial autonomy, pipelines, environment and a green economy.
 

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Mulroney看起来不错。
女人没戏
 

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加拿大需要一个像老川一样眼光独到,
能为自己国家,而不是自己个人,谋福利的人
 

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Here are some possible contenders to replace Andrew Scheer as Conservative leader
The eventual winner will give a strong signal about the direction of the party as it prepares to square off against Justin Trudeau for a third time

Stuart Thomson

National Post, December 12, 2019
7:34 PM EST

Conservative leader Andrew Scheer’s abrupt resignation announcement leaves an intriguing job vacancy on the Canadian political scene.

The eventual winner of the race will give a strong signal about the direction of the party as it prepares to square off against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for a third time.

Scheer’s resignation comes at a time of deep self-analysis for the party. After a bruising defeat in the 2019 election, the Conservatives hired former cabinet minister John Baird to analyze where the party went wrong and how it can learn from the election that gave the Liberals a minority government. Some party veterans have argued that Conservatives should move to the left on social issues, while others have argued that simply doing a better job of articulating conservative ideas would expand the voter base.

Scheer said on Thursday that he has asked the party to immediately start planning a leadership contest and soon Tory hopefuls will be declaring their candidacy. Here are some contenders that may be keen to join the race.

Peter MacKay
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Peter MacKay Peter J. Thompson/NP
MacKay was a cabinet minister in Stephen Harper’s government from its first days in 2006 until its last day in 2015. He was also instrumental in the creation of the modern Conservative Party (although he broke a promise to do it) and has lived and breathed Tory politics for his entire life. MacKay will be attractive to Conservative Party members who want the party to take a turn to the progressive on social issues and who are concerned about building the party up east of the Prairies.

Erin O’Toole
erin-otoole.png

Erin O’Toole Adrian Wyld/CP
O’Toole came tantalizingly close to winning the 2017 Conservative leadership race and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he took another run at the job. The Ontario MP was in the final four when Scheer took the leadership, along with Brad Trost and Maxime Bernier. O’Toole is also coming off a big win in the House this week: He spearheaded a successful motion to create a special parliamentary committee to examine Canada’s relationship with China.

Gérard Deltell
gecc81rard-deltell.png

Gérard Deltell Mathieu Belanger/Postmedia
If the Conservatives are serious about winning back support in Quebec, they may be keen to find a francophone leader. Quebec MP Gérard Deltell could be the prime candidate for Tories still lamenting the poor reviews of Scheer’s French debate performances. Deltell has received generally good assessments of his performances in the House since he was elected in 2015 and he even has some leadership experience: he served as parliamentary leader of the provincial Coalition Avenir Québec caucus in 2012.

Pierre Poilievre
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Pierre Poilievre Blair Gable/Reuters
Poilievre is another veteran of the Harper government who may be inclined to throw his hat in the ring. The Ottawa-area member of parliament may have to soften his image as a partisan attack-dog, but it’s his ability to genuinely enrage the members on the other side of the House that makes him appealing to some Conservatives.

Rona Ambrose
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Rona Ambrose Dean Bennett/CP
There are enough Conservatives pining for former Alberta MP Rona Ambrose to enter the race that it’s not totally out of the realm of possibility. Whether she actually wants to be involved is another question. Some members have gotten the distinct impression that the former interim leader of the party is happy in life after politics and likely can’t be convinced to run.

Christy Clark
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Christy Clark Jonathan Hayward/CP
Clark left politics after she resigned as leader of the British Columbia Liberal Party in 2017. And if the Conservatives are looking for some kind of compromise candidate between factions in the Prairies and Ontario, she could be an elegant choice. For six years she governed a province with a functional carbon tax and the jury is out on whether that could be a help or a hindrance in a race decided by Conservative Party members.

Jason Kenney
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Jason Kenney Blair Gable/Reuters
In an interview with the National Post on Monday, Kenney described accusations that he’s planning a run for the Conservative leadership as “laughable.” That hasn’t stopped the Alberta NDP opposition from suggesting it and some Conservative caucus members still optimistically include the Alberta premier’s name on a list of candidate they hope to see running.

Brad Wall
brad-wall.png

Brad Wall Jim Wells/Postmedia
Wall may be another person who is happily enjoying life after politics, but that doesn’t stop some Conservatives from hoping he enters the race. The former Saskatchewan premier managed to accomplish a rare feat by leaving politics with sky-high approval ratings. When he stepped down in December 2017, Wall commanded 53 per cent approval from voters in Saskatchewan.

Michelle Rempel
michelle-rempel.png

Michelle Rempel Adrian Wyld/CP
It’s easy to gauge Rempel’s popularity in her Calgary riding: In the 2019 election, she was re-elected with nearly 70 per cent of the votes. Rempel is still one of the younger members of the Conservative caucus at 39-years-old and she can boast huge numbers on social media, with more than 100,000 Twitter followers and a popular YouTube channel. Whether that translates into votes in a leadership race will be another matter.
 

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加拿大需要一个像老川一样眼光独到,
能为自己国家,而不是自己个人,谋福利的人

你琢磨个能带领保守党上台的人吧。
 

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希望上来个沉稳有经验的。
 

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哈珀也可以考虑一下,重新出山,比现在几位美国总统候选人年轻多了。川普,彭博,拜登。
 

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One of the details of our current malaise is that even as the memoir, confessional and tell-all become our dominant strains of popular non-fiction, we have leaders who seem to spend a disproportionate amount of time hoping nobody will find out about them.

The social media explosion that began in perhaps 2005 has left politicians with two choices: let it all hang out, or meticulously construct a persona the public is permitted to examine only intermittently, a mosaic of staged photos, tweets and talking points. Donald Trump and the late and current Ford brothers represent the confessional mode; Andrew Scheer, who imploded today at the age of 40, did his best to pull off the persona-as-collage. It didn’t last.

There are all kinds of reasons to suspect Scheer’s brief unrewarding tenure as Conservative leader is ending because some people in his party decided it was time to pull a house down on top of him. I read Stephen Maher’s article about the revelation of Scheer’s school expenses and I think, gee, that reads exactly like the part in Preston Manning’s memoir where he recalls Stephen Harper leaking details of Sandra Manning’s expenses in the 1990s. Over here, meanwhile, is Canadian conservatism’s current national leader, Jason Kenney, with a ready-made answer when asked who should replace Scheer. How convenient. We’ll be picking over the events of the day for weeks. It all adds up to a tasty whodunit.

But Scheer’s school expenses—the jokes write themselves; you think chocolate milk is cheap in this country?—are not the only element of his life that he preferred to keep under wraps. His citizenship and the details of his education were, we found in the campaign, like a sweater that unravels when you pull a thread. So were his thoughts on homosexuality or on his faith as the context for his political action. He had answers when asked, but the answers weren’t answers in the sense that they revealed a thoughtful revelation of inner complexity; they were shields. Even most of his thinking on government policy remains a mystery. One day I may find out whether he seriously thought the climate chapter of his platform was any better than risible.

I barely know Andrew Scheer, but in our rare private chats he has always seemed a good and decent person. I’m sad this chapter of his life is ending this way. But I have friends who know him only from the election debates and are convinced Scheer’s a bully and a jerk, and honestly, both I and they are guessing. If you dole out your worldview through an eyedropper, you leave it to your audience to make assumptions about what’s missing. Scheer always hoped for—always assumed he deserved—the benefit of the doubt. When well-funded and experienced Conservatives decided they had already given him enough benefit of the doubt, he couldn’t compete with the image they drew of him as a stumbler. He’d left too many blank zones on the map of himself. He went before Canadians as terra nullius. His opponents filled in the blanks, and in the end his opponents were on his own side.

But you try filling in the blanks, if you think it’s easy. Conservatives’ opponents are quite sure every Conservative is the same, but in fact the party is a diverse coalition whose only successful leader, in its current incarnation, has been Stephen Harper. The years since he lost the 2015 election have been eventful. How a new leader can hold and expand the coalition is the party’s central question. The stakes are high and the challenge is daunting.

Forty-seven Conservative MPs are from Alberta and Saskatchewan. If the upcoming leadership campaign hands those MPs’ supporters a Halifax lawyer, will they think the party has pulled a fast one?

Can Toronto consultants and Saskatchewan evangelicals agree on the leader’s proper position on reproductive rights, equal marriage and Indigenous reconciliation? If the faction that ousted Scheer gets its preferred new leader, will the rest of the party stick around?

Is the towering contempt for serious climate action that greeted Mike Chong when he ran for the leadership only three years ago still a tenable position for a party that wants to make inroads in parts of the country where people insist on believing in science and the evidence of their own eyes?

What, in the end, do Canadian Conservatives actually think about Donald Trump? Brexit? China? Immigration? Ezra Levant?

These are all trick questions, in the sense that there is no single answer to all of them that will rally both a winning coalition within the party and a winning coalition among Canadian voters. I think Scheer’s astonishingly tentative defence of his position since the election made his continued leadership increasingly untenable, but the glib assumption among the leaders of the putsch against him that the party could obviously do better will now be tested, at length and under severe pressure. Best of luck, folks.

It was sadly appropriate that in the end, Scheer was brought down using the only tools the modern Conservative Party, under Harper and a generation that learned at Harper’s knee, can be said with any confidence to have mastered: attack ads, sneering disdain and targeted leaks. Scheer had no compelling story to tell about Canada. Neither did his tormentors. To me that looks like a problem. Over to you, Conservatives.
 

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哈珀也可以考虑一下,重新出山,比现在几位美国总统候选人年轻多了。川普,彭博,拜登。
别的。
还是得上新人
 

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Kevin O'Leary 他跟川普一条裤子
 

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Andrew Scheer is out. And, I confess I am surprised. I am a firm believer in Paul Wells 1st rule of Canadian politics which states: “For any given situation, Canadian politics will tend toward the least exciting possible outcome.” So when I heard gossip this was coming I gave it my best world weary shrug and predicted nothing would happen. But, it turns out, the rumours of his demise were not exaggerated.

On one hand, it’s easy to understand why he chose to go. The CPC lost the election to possibly the weakest Liberal candidate since Michael Ignatieff decided to dabble in losing. The caucus was grumbling—some prominent members like Ed Fast even refused to sit in his shadow cabinet. Prominent conservatives like Doug Ford were quietly trying to pull the carpet out from under Scheer’s feet, while others like Stephen Harper’s former director of communications Kory Teneycke were openly campaigning for his ouster.

On the other hand, there were many reason to believe the Wells rule would apply. The CPC did earn the most votes in the election, more than Stephen Harper received in 2011. Scheer even added 26 seats to the caucus. You would expect the party to give him one more chance, especially given that a shaky minority government led by a shaken Prime Minister most likely means the next election will be sooner rather than later.

Regardless, Andrew Scheer is moving on and will likely enjoy a well-earned rest with his family over the holidays. The last several weeks must have been hell for him, and few people realize just how brutal, demoralizing and exhausting life in politics can be. I suspect the outgoing leader will wake up tomorrow feeling a quiet sense of relief.

The rest of the caucus, however, will spend the holidays rapidly assessing who might replace Scheer as leader, and then deciding whether they will join in, oppose or just keep their head down. Their decision will have a monumental impact on the course of this country.

There is a chronic conflict at the heart of modern conservatism that you can see across the western world. On one side you have ideologues who believe that the conservative movement should be “[standing] athwart history, yelling Stop!” as William F. Buckley described it. They want to slow down the changes that have transformed our society over the last 50 years, and even reverse them if possible.

For them, being conservative means defending certain social values like traditional marriage, the primacy of Christianity and protections for the unborn. They believe these ideas are so important, that they are willing to forgo other traditional conservative priorities like de-regulation or limited government in order to defend them.

Opposing them are people who believe the core principle of conservatism is the need to protect the rights of the individual. This means that the government should have no role in deciding who you can or cannot marry, how and where you worship, and what you put in to your body.

In the United States right now, there is a growing conflict within the Republican party that perfectly illustrates this divide. A number of GOP legislators are pushing the Trump administration to launch a “war on porn”—to increase regulations on what you can film and distribute in order to prevent the corruption of youth. Other Republicans think this is overreach and it’s absurd for the government to play any role in deciding what you want to watch in the privacy of your own home.

A similar divide exists among Canadians who believe themselves to be “conservative”. I witnessed this first hand two years ago when I went across the country hosting large public dinners for members of the CPC who were worried Andrew Scheer would drive the party into the ditch.

These were people who believed in the importance of a free market, and could not understand why the party was opposed to the only market friendly response to climate change (or why the party was even loath to admit the climate was changing). Others valued personal liberty, and couldn’t believe the party would even have an opinion about their gay daughter, let alone want to prevent her from marrying. And there were a lot of them. To this day I get weekly emails from people who attended those dinners bemoaning where the party has gone.

Now, with Scheer out, the party has a chance to consider what type of party they want to be. If they pick a social conservative (which is most likely when you consider how strong that contingent is—and that this faction was apparently driving the dissatisfaction with Scheer) then they will keep pulling their steering wheel to the right, off the road, over the curb, and into the ditch.

Because, most Canadians don’t share these values. And, what’s more, young voters, who are replacing the more conservative older generations who are dying off, overwhelmingly don’t share these values. Canada is an increasingly open society, that believes in individual liberty, supports feminism, prioritizes climate action and doesn’t give a damn about porn. If the party is going to run against what the vast majority of Canadians now believe, then it is going to hand power to the rag-tag and meandering mess that is the Liberal Party.

Of course, the party could choose a leader who would resonate with voters across the country and across the political spectrum. Someone who believed in fighting climate change, was willing to march in a Pride Parade, and who welcomed immigrants. In the last race, only Michael Chong fit that description, and they relegated him to fourth place.

Perhaps the party will do better this time—the country needs a strong Conservative Party, one that the majority of Canadians can trust and support. Where this country goes over the next decade, and how it gets there will be primarily dictated by who the party chooses to replace Scheer. Let’s hope they choose well.
 
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