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这些估计表明，如果从1月份大流行开始到4月初没有采取某些政策，那么大约会有：
中国的总感染人数增加了2.85亿
韩国的总感染人数增加了3800万
意大利的总感染人数增加了4,900万
伊朗的总感染人数再增加5400万
法国的总感染人数增加了4500万
美国的总感染人数增加了6000万
总体而言，研究表明，Covid-19紧急政策在所有六个国家中共阻止了超过5亿例冠状病毒感染。
“过去几个月来非常困难，但是通过我们个人的牺牲，世界各地的人们都为人类最伟大的集体成就之一做出了贡献。”
“我不认为任何人类的努力都能在这么短的时间内挽救这么多人的生命。呆在家里和取消活动有巨大的个人成本，但数据表明，每天都有很大的不同。”添加。 “通过运用科学和合作，我们改变了历史进程。”
这项由加州大学伯克利分校的研究人员进行的研究涵盖了六个国家/地区的每日感染率，冠状病毒病例定义的变化以及1,717项政策部署时间的数据，包括出行限制，社会疏远措施和居家封锁等。最早的可用日期是今年至4月6日。
研究人员分析了这些数据，以估计如果制定了不同的大规模政策组合，则特定位置的每日感染增长率可能会随着时间发生变化。数据显示，不包括伊朗在内，在政策放慢传播速度之前，感染的平均增长率约为每天38％。
研究人员发现，在全部六个国家中，关闭干预措施共预防或延迟了约5.3亿次总感染-根据测试程序和病例的定义，这转化为约6200万例确诊病例。
研究人员没有估计可能预防的死亡人数。
研究人员在研究中写道：“我们的模拟结果表明，大规模的抗传染政策正在减缓COVID-19大流行。” “由于在我们所研究的国家中，如果没有实施任何政策，感染率最初将呈指数级快速增长，因此我们的结果表明，这些政策具有巨大的健康益处。”
4 hr 1 min ago
US restrictions averted about 60 million coronavirus infections through early April, study says
From CNN's Jacqueline Howard
Coronavirus tests are administered at a drive-thru testing site in Jericho, New York, on April 6. Al Bello/Getty Images
If large-scale shutdown policies — such as ordering people to stay home and closing schools — were not implemented after the coronavirus pandemic made its way to the United States, there would be roughly 60 million more coronavirus infections across the nation, a new modeling study suggests.
The study, published Monday in the scientific journal Nature, involved a modeling technique typically used for estimating economic growth to measure the effect of shutdown policies across six countries: China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States.
Those estimates suggest that, without certain policies in place from the beginning of the pandemic in January through early April, there would be roughly:
The study period ended on April 6, but keeping shutdown orders in place after that time has likely led to even more coronavirus infections being avoided — even though maintaining such measures has been difficult, the study's lead author, Solomon Hsiang, a professor and director of the Global Policy Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley, said in a press release on Monday.
"The last several months have been extraordinarily difficult, but through our individual sacrifices, people everywhere have each contributed to one of humanity’s greatest collective achievements," Hsiang said in the press release.
"I don’t think any human endeavor has ever saved so many lives in such a short period of time. There have been huge personal costs to staying home and canceling events, but the data show that each day made a profound difference," Hsiang added. "By using science and cooperating, we changed the course of history."
The study, conducted by researchers at UC Berkeley, included data across the six countries on daily infection rates, changes in coronavirus case definitions and the timing of 1,717 policy deployments — including travel restrictions, social distancing measures and stay-at-home lockdowns — from the earliest available dates this year through April 6.
The researchers analyzed that data to estimate how the daily growth rate of infections could have changed over time within a specific location if there were different combinations of large-scale policies enacted. The data showed that, excluding Iran, the growth rate of infections was around 38% per day on average before policies slowed the spread.
The researchers found that, across all six countries total, shutdown interventions prevented or delayed roughly 530 million total infections — which, based on testing procedures and how cases were defined, translates to about 62 million confirmed cases.
The researchers did not estimate how many deaths might have been prevented.
"Our analysis focuses on confirmed infections, but other outcomes, such as hospitalizations or deaths, are also of policy interest. Future work on these outcomes may require additional modeling approaches because they are relatively more context- and state-dependent," the researchers wrote in the study.
Remember: The study had some limitations, including that available data on infections and measures across the countries were limited and the study can only suggest estimations about what could have happened.
"Our empirical results indicate that large-scale anti-contagion policies are slowing the COVID-19 pandemic," the researchers wrote in the study. "Because infection rates in the countries we study would have initially followed rapid exponential growth had no policies been applied, our results suggest that these policies have provided large health benefits."
中国的总感染人数增加了2.85亿
韩国的总感染人数增加了3800万
意大利的总感染人数增加了4,900万
伊朗的总感染人数再增加5400万
法国的总感染人数增加了4500万
美国的总感染人数增加了6000万
总体而言，研究表明，Covid-19紧急政策在所有六个国家中共阻止了超过5亿例冠状病毒感染。
“过去几个月来非常困难，但是通过我们个人的牺牲，世界各地的人们都为人类最伟大的集体成就之一做出了贡献。”
“我不认为任何人类的努力都能在这么短的时间内挽救这么多人的生命。呆在家里和取消活动有巨大的个人成本，但数据表明，每天都有很大的不同。”添加。 “通过运用科学和合作，我们改变了历史进程。”
这项由加州大学伯克利分校的研究人员进行的研究涵盖了六个国家/地区的每日感染率，冠状病毒病例定义的变化以及1,717项政策部署时间的数据，包括出行限制，社会疏远措施和居家封锁等。最早的可用日期是今年至4月6日。
研究人员分析了这些数据，以估计如果制定了不同的大规模政策组合，则特定位置的每日感染增长率可能会随着时间发生变化。数据显示，不包括伊朗在内，在政策放慢传播速度之前，感染的平均增长率约为每天38％。
研究人员发现，在全部六个国家中，关闭干预措施共预防或延迟了约5.3亿次总感染-根据测试程序和病例的定义，这转化为约6200万例确诊病例。
研究人员没有估计可能预防的死亡人数。
研究人员在研究中写道：“我们的模拟结果表明，大规模的抗传染政策正在减缓COVID-19大流行。” “由于在我们所研究的国家中，如果没有实施任何政策，感染率最初将呈指数级快速增长，因此我们的结果表明，这些政策具有巨大的健康益处。”
4 hr 1 min ago
US restrictions averted about 60 million coronavirus infections through early April, study says
From CNN's Jacqueline Howard
Coronavirus tests are administered at a drive-thru testing site in Jericho, New York, on April 6. Al Bello/Getty Images
If large-scale shutdown policies — such as ordering people to stay home and closing schools — were not implemented after the coronavirus pandemic made its way to the United States, there would be roughly 60 million more coronavirus infections across the nation, a new modeling study suggests.
The study, published Monday in the scientific journal Nature, involved a modeling technique typically used for estimating economic growth to measure the effect of shutdown policies across six countries: China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States.
Those estimates suggest that, without certain policies in place from the beginning of the pandemic in January through early April, there would be roughly:
- 285 million more total infections in China
- 38 million more total infections in South Korea
- 49 million more total infections in Italy
- 54 million more total infections in Iran
- 45 million more total infections in France
- 60 million more total infections in the United States
The study period ended on April 6, but keeping shutdown orders in place after that time has likely led to even more coronavirus infections being avoided — even though maintaining such measures has been difficult, the study's lead author, Solomon Hsiang, a professor and director of the Global Policy Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley, said in a press release on Monday.
"The last several months have been extraordinarily difficult, but through our individual sacrifices, people everywhere have each contributed to one of humanity’s greatest collective achievements," Hsiang said in the press release.
"I don’t think any human endeavor has ever saved so many lives in such a short period of time. There have been huge personal costs to staying home and canceling events, but the data show that each day made a profound difference," Hsiang added. "By using science and cooperating, we changed the course of history."
The study, conducted by researchers at UC Berkeley, included data across the six countries on daily infection rates, changes in coronavirus case definitions and the timing of 1,717 policy deployments — including travel restrictions, social distancing measures and stay-at-home lockdowns — from the earliest available dates this year through April 6.
The researchers analyzed that data to estimate how the daily growth rate of infections could have changed over time within a specific location if there were different combinations of large-scale policies enacted. The data showed that, excluding Iran, the growth rate of infections was around 38% per day on average before policies slowed the spread.
The researchers found that, across all six countries total, shutdown interventions prevented or delayed roughly 530 million total infections — which, based on testing procedures and how cases were defined, translates to about 62 million confirmed cases.
The researchers did not estimate how many deaths might have been prevented.
"Our analysis focuses on confirmed infections, but other outcomes, such as hospitalizations or deaths, are also of policy interest. Future work on these outcomes may require additional modeling approaches because they are relatively more context- and state-dependent," the researchers wrote in the study.
Remember: The study had some limitations, including that available data on infections and measures across the countries were limited and the study can only suggest estimations about what could have happened.
"Our empirical results indicate that large-scale anti-contagion policies are slowing the COVID-19 pandemic," the researchers wrote in the study. "Because infection rates in the countries we study would have initially followed rapid exponential growth had no policies been applied, our results suggest that these policies have provided large health benefits."
