2020年美国选举：众议院选举，民主党获得222席，共和党获210席，佩洛西再次当选众议院议长；参议院选举，形成民主党50：50共和党局面；国会正式认证，拜登以选举人团306票当选总统
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2020 Presidential Election Forecast Maps - 270toWin
Compare the current 2020 Presidential map projections of various political pundits. Use any of the maps to create and share your own 2020 forecast
www.270towin.com
2020 Presidential Election Forecasts
These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2020 Presidential forecast.
2020 President: Consensus Electoral Map
As of November 1, 2020
This map aggregates the ratings of nine organizations to come up with a consensus forecast for the 2020 presidential election.
Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day.
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 electoral map forecast.
November 1: Indiana moves from Likely to Safe Republican; Minnesota from Leans to Likely Democratic.
2020 Electoral Map Based on Polls
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election based on polling. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls.
Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.
States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
2020 Electoral Map Based on Polls
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election based on polling. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls.
Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.
States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
2020 Map Based on Polls (No Toss-ups)
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated three times daily, this map will track the electoral vote count based on polling, with no toss-ups (unless exactly tied).
The candidate that leads in the polls is shown as the winner of the state. The 2016 party winner is used where there are no polls.
See the regular Biden-Trump Polling Map for more granular ratings based on the margin between the two nominees.
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
Crystal Ball 2020 Electoral College
As of November 2, 2020
The final electoral college ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Larry Sabato and the team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
November 2: In this final update, all toss-ups are removed. Florida, Iowa, ME-2 and Ohio move to Leans Republican; Georgia and North Carolina to Leans Democratic.
Cook Political Report Electoral College Forecast
As of October 28, 2020
The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from The Cook Political Report. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
October 28: Texas moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Read Amy Walter's analysis here.
Inside Elections Presidential Ratings
As of October 28, 2020
The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Inside Elections. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
October 28: Georgia and North Carolina move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic; Texas from Tilt Republican to Toss-up.
The Economist's US Presidential Election Forecast
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated twice daily, this is an electoral map projection based on The Economist's US presidential election forecast.
Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (65%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (99%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast.
Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (65%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
Politico 2020 Presidential Forecast
As of November 2, 2020
The final ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Politico. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
November 2: Alaska moves from Likely to Leans Republican; Georgia from Leans Republican to Toss-up; Indiana from Safe to Likely Republican.
PredictIt Market Probabilities
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated every four hours, this is an electoral map based on the then-current PredictIt market odds for the 2020 presidential election.
Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.
Unless the odds are exactly 50%, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (<60%) Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
Princeton Election Consortium
Map Based on Polling
Part of the Princeton Election Consortium polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state.
You can view the full series of three maps here.
A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases: Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
Decision Desk | 0ptimus 2020 Presidential Forecast
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection derived from the Decision Desk | 0ptimus 2020 Presidential Election Model.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
HK Forecasts Presidential Election Forecast
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast. This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.
Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2020 election simulator.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
NPR 2020 Election Map Ratings
As of October 30, 2020
The final 2020 electoral college projection from NPR.
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 electoral map forecast.
October 30: Four changes. Note that NPR is using the 'Likely' terminology to cover what others call both 'Likely' and 'Safe'. We label those states safe on this map as, for the most part, this is consistent with how these states are characterized in other forecasts.
CNN 2020 Electoral College Map
As of October 7, 2020
From CNN: "As President Donald Trump remains infected with coronavirus and absent from the campaign trail, his campaign finds itself in its worst political position since the start of the campaign season. The President had a disastrous debate performance last week in what was one of his last best chances to turn things around before millions of Americans began casting their ballots."
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
October 7: Iowa moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up; NE-2 and Pennsylvania from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
U.S. News Electoral College Ratings
As of October 28, 2020
The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Louis Jacobson for U.S. News & World Report. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
October 28: Arizona moves from Leans Democratic to Toss-up; Georgia and Iowa Leans Republican to Toss-up; Kansas and Montana Safe to Likely Republican; Maine and ME-1 from Leans to Likely Democratic.
- 注册
- 2005-11-23
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1 hr 31 min ago
Tomorrow's election night. Is there a problem if we don't know the winner then?
From CNN's Zachary B. Wolf
No, there is not. In fact, it's happened in recent memory. Here is a breakdown of when CNN projected the last five presidential elections:
Tomorrow's election night. Is there a problem if we don't know the winner then?
From CNN's Zachary B. Wolf
No, there is not. In fact, it's happened in recent memory. Here is a breakdown of when CNN projected the last five presidential elections:
- 2016 — 2:47 a.m. ET — CNN projected Donald Trump would win after Hillary Clinton called Donald Trump to concede.
- 2012 — 11:18 p.m. ET — CNN projected Barack Obama would win shortly after polls closed on the West Coast. 11:18 p.m.
- 2008 — 11 p.m. ET — CNN projected Barack Obama would win as polls on the West Coast closed.
- 2004 — No projection — It was close and came down to Ohio. John Kerry conceded the next day after Bush had a 100,000 vote lead in decisive Ohio. A concession on such a small margin is hard to imagine today with all the absentee and provisional ballots cast in 2020.
- 2000 — No projection. We didn't know George W. Bush would be the President until December, after a Supreme Court showdown. It was wild.
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Nomi Prins' Dark Money Millionaires
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they predict trump win for 2020Nomi Prins' Dark Money Millionaires
CFC调查显示特朗普将以绝对优势获胜。
- 注册
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- 注册
- 2003-04-13
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募捐，华尔街大佬哗哗哗啦啦啦掏钱。
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我也这个感觉。
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Election 2020: The best not-so-political lawn signs spotted across America
We especially like the one that reads, 'OMG Please Make It Stop'
By Jeanette Settembre | Fox News
Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum kick off the countdown to the 2020 presidential election. Analysis from Karl Rove, Dana Perino, Chris Stirewalt & many more.
Here’s a sign that Americans still have a sense of humor despite a global pandemic, a nerve-wracking election season, civil unrest and an all-around dismal 2020.
As Election Day nears, lighthearted lawn signs appear to be sprouting up in yards across the country — and also for sale online — helping to give spectators a bit of comic relief as Americans prepare to hit the polls on Tuesday.
Bipartisan sentiments include a “Wu-Tang Forever" sign, a sign that advocates for beer and cheese in 2020, and even a more optimistic “Life is a gift” sign, among some of the other winners spotted on America's lawns.
And since a politically-charged lawn sign likely won’t be enough to shift someone’s political views anyway, here are some lighthearted selections from homeowners who are in on the joke.
Wu-Tang Is Forever
A tribute to the Staten Island-based hip hop group, this homeowner's "Wu-Tang Forever" sign looks far beyond the 2020 election.
Cold Beers. Cheese Curds
Whether you're voting red or blue, there's nothing more American than a cold one — and if you're from Wisconsin, where this sign is, you'll have a special soft spot for cheese curds.
Corgis for Biden
Apparently, spectators may find themselves in the "dog house" if they don't vote "blue," according to this homeowner and (very likely) corgi parent.
OMG Please Make It Stop
OMG Please Make it Stop sign
2020 fatigue is real. And this sign, currently for sale on Etsy, undoubtedly captures the sentiments of a good chunk of Americans.
Lawn Sign
When you want a lawn sign so you can fit in with the neighbors, but you really don't care to take sides.
Life is a gift
Life will go on after Election Day, and when it does, here's a reminder to appreciate it a little bit more with this uplifting sentiment.
www.foxnews.com
We especially like the one that reads, 'OMG Please Make It Stop'
By Jeanette Settembre | Fox News
Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum kick off the countdown to the 2020 presidential election. Analysis from Karl Rove, Dana Perino, Chris Stirewalt & many more.
Here’s a sign that Americans still have a sense of humor despite a global pandemic, a nerve-wracking election season, civil unrest and an all-around dismal 2020.
As Election Day nears, lighthearted lawn signs appear to be sprouting up in yards across the country — and also for sale online — helping to give spectators a bit of comic relief as Americans prepare to hit the polls on Tuesday.
Bipartisan sentiments include a “Wu-Tang Forever" sign, a sign that advocates for beer and cheese in 2020, and even a more optimistic “Life is a gift” sign, among some of the other winners spotted on America's lawns.
And since a politically-charged lawn sign likely won’t be enough to shift someone’s political views anyway, here are some lighthearted selections from homeowners who are in on the joke.
Wu-Tang Is Forever
A tribute to the Staten Island-based hip hop group, this homeowner's "Wu-Tang Forever" sign looks far beyond the 2020 election.
Cold Beers. Cheese Curds
Whether you're voting red or blue, there's nothing more American than a cold one — and if you're from Wisconsin, where this sign is, you'll have a special soft spot for cheese curds.
Corgis for Biden
Apparently, spectators may find themselves in the "dog house" if they don't vote "blue," according to this homeowner and (very likely) corgi parent.
OMG Please Make It Stop
OMG Please Make it Stop sign
2020 fatigue is real. And this sign, currently for sale on Etsy, undoubtedly captures the sentiments of a good chunk of Americans.
Lawn Sign
When you want a lawn sign so you can fit in with the neighbors, but you really don't care to take sides.
Life is a gift
Life will go on after Election Day, and when it does, here's a reminder to appreciate it a little bit more with this uplifting sentiment.
Election 2020: The best not-so-political lawn signs spotted across America
The funniest lawn signs sprouting up ahead of Election Day 2020.
