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明天就改成”全世界只有中国俄罗斯没有祝贺“尼玛这标题是不是随着祝贺国家越来越多而不断长长啊
2020年美国选举：众议院选举，民主党获得222席，共和党获210席，佩洛西再次当选众议院议长；参议院选举，形成民主党50：50共和党局面；国会正式认证，拜登以选举人团306票当选总统
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cnn在16年后就没对川普说过一句人话。
Jared Kushner, Melania Trump advise Trump to accept election loss
President Donald Trump's inner circle is beginning to split over his ongoing refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election, as Jared Kushner and first lady Melania Trump advised him to come to terms with President-elect Joe Biden's victory and his adult sons pressed him and allies to keep...www.cnn.com
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On Friday, a viral claim that Pennsylvania had 21,000 dead people on its voter rolls spread across the internet. In some versions of the rumor, those deceased people had voted for the Democratic presidential candidate, Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Breitbart News, the right-wing publication, wrote an article about it. Others then cited it as evidence that Democrats were trying to steal the election.
Rudy Giuliani, President Trump’s personal lawyer, shared the article on Twitter, collecting 74,800 likes and shares. Diamond and Silk, the popular pro-Trump social media duo, posted about the rumor on Facebook. And Representative Matt Gaetz, a Florida Republican, tweeted: “The dead vote appears to have swung overwhelmingly for Joe Biden.”
Altogether, Facebook posts about the rumor reached up to 11.3 million people, according to an analysis by The New York Times.
The problem: It wasn’t true that 21,000 dead people had voted in Pennsylvania.
The claim stemmed from a lawsuit that was amended on Thursday, an action that fueled the rumor’s spread on Friday. The conservative Public Interest Legal Foundation had filed the lawsuit against Pennsylvania’s secretary of state, Kathy Boockvar, on Oct. 15 in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Pennsylvania.
The suit accuses Ms. Boockvar, a Democrat, of improperly including 21,206 supposedly deceased Pennsylvanians on voter rolls. The group asked for an injunction to stop the dead people from voting in the election.
On Oct. 20, the court’s chief judge, John E. Jones III, who has the case, said he was doubtful of the suit. He noted in a ruling that the Public Interest Legal Foundation was asking the court to accept its findings that dead people were on the voter rolls but said, “We cannot and will not take plaintiff’s word for it — in an election where every vote matters, we will not disenfranchise potentially eligible voters based solely upon the allegations of a private foundation.”
Logan Churchwell, a spokesman for the legal foundation, said in an email on Friday it had evidence from the 2016 and 2018 elections for its suit. “Evidence and exhibits are filed under seal with the court,” he said. “The lawsuit is not a rumor, and the methodology is explained in the amended complaint, filed yesterday.”
A spokeswoman for the Pennsylvania attorney general’s office said: “The court found no deficiency in how Pennsylvania maintains its voter rolls. There is currently no proof provided that any deceased person has voted in the 2020 election.”
Ms. Boockvar’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
Dead people whose identities were used to vote appear to be a popular subject for those who are spreading unsubstantiated claims of fraud about the election. Assertions that the dead had voted in Michigan also surfaced on Twitter and other social media this week. But The Times found that the Michigan voters were alive and had voted legally, and that in some cases their birth dates had shown up inaccurately because of clerical errors.
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Biden wins US election: What happens next? – DW – 11/08/2020
Although Joe Biden is the projected winner of the US election, President Donald Trump has refused to concede. DW breaks down the process, precedent and hurdles between now and Inauguration Day.
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Joe Biden projected to win US election: What happens next?
Although Joe Biden is the projected winner of the US election, President Donald Trump has refused to concede. DW breaks down the process, precedent and hurdles between now and Inauguration Day.
President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris have won the presidential election, according to projections by the Associated Press and numerous US news outlets.
The path to the White House, however, will be anything but easy this time. President Donald Trump has vowed to challenge the outcome of the vote in court and could throw up several roadblocks in the transition. DW takes a look at what to expect.
What happens between now and Inauguration Day?
Each state will need to finish counting its outstanding ballots and certify the results over the next few weeks.
The Electoral College electors will need to formally cast their ballots; the candidate who receives 270 or more electoral votes wins.
It all culminates on January 20, the date the US constitution stipulates that the next president's term begins.
Here are some key dates:
December 8: The "safe harbor" deadline — States have until this date to resolve disputes over their vote totals and certify the winner.
December 14: Members of the Electoral College cast their ballots for president.
January 5: Georgia holds runoff vote for two US Senate seats — the outcome will determine whether Republicans maintain their majority in the chamber. If they do, it will likely making things difficult for Biden.
January 6: US Congress convenes to count the electoral votes and officially declare a winner.
January 20: Inauguration Day, Biden is sworn in by the US Supreme Court Chief Justice and officially assumes office in the afternoon.
Why is the transition so important?
In the weeks leading up to January 20, Biden's team will be busy getting ready to take over from a decidedly reluctant Trump team. He will need to name over 4,000 political appointees and 1,200 of those will need to be confirmed by the Senate.
Biden staffers will need to ask their Trump administration counterparts for information to be brought up to speed on each governmental agency, figuring out what has been done and which issues are outstanding.
Biden's priority is naming a coronavirus task force comprised of leading experts to fight the coronavirus pandemic. The rest of his main Cabinet positions are likely to be announced quickly, although the interviews will be taking place digitally due to the pandemic.
The incumbent US president plays a crucial role in smoothing the transition of power. Previous presidents began preparing their teams months if not a year in advance. But it remains to be seen how — and if — Trump handles the transition.
Where do the court challenges stand?
Trump's campaign has filed numerous legal challenges to the election in several battleground states in a bid to try and overturn results. His team has vowed more cases could be filed in the coming days, while the President is pushing to get the case before the Supreme Court.
Trump has repeatedly attempted to paint the election as unfair and repeatedly issued baseless allegations of widespread voter fraud — taking aim in particular at legal mail-in ballots that millions of Americans cast across the country as an alternative to in-person voting during the pandemic.
State court cases will be crucial to get Trump to the conservative-leaning US Supreme Court, but law professor Kirk Junker told DW "the clock is running" until December 8 when states need to have their final vote tallies.
"Unlike in 2000 with Bush and Gore, we don't have that state decision yet because there hasn't been any substance to any of his state lawsuits yet. So until that happens, I see no path to the Supreme Court," Junker said.
Here's an overview (as of November 8) of the current legal challenges:
Pennsylvania: Several cases pending and likely in for the most contentious legal fight. The Trump campaign won a state court case to gain closer access to the vote-counting proceedings. There is also a case pending before the US Supreme Court challenging the state's decision to allow election officials to count mail-in ballots that were postmarked by Election Day.
Arizona: Trump sued the state's most populous county, where Phoenix is located. The campaign alleges poll workers incorrectly rejected votes cast on Election Day.
Georgia: A recount of the state's votes is likely, although the Trump campaign has yet to request the count. A Trump campaign case in the county where Savannah is located was dismissed.
Michigan: A case to halt the vote count was dismissed after a state judge ruled there was no legal basis for the Trump campaign claims.
What if Trump doesn't concede?
Trump does not need to concede for the election to be legally binding or for Biden to take office. The concession speech is more of a political tradition, but an important one for the US public.
The speech signals to supporters that the campaign is over and typically encourages American unity — two messages that Trump has so far not delivered to the voters who backed him or the public at large.
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Trump clings to courtroom hopes despite lawsuit losses
Legal challenges to election result continue although some already rejected by judges
Even after Joe Biden secured victory in the US presidential election on Saturday, Donald Trump has continued to dispute the result and vowed to keep filing lawsuits despite already seeing a run of losses in the courts.
Mr Trump’s legal claims have been met with scepticism, with judges noting a lack of evidence for the president’s allegations of fraud and irregularities.
But he faces a steeper challenge — Mr Biden’s margin of victory in key battleground states is probably too large to be undone through the courts, even if Mr Trump could prove his case.
Here’s what you need to know about the lawsuits.
Where has the president filed cases?
The Trump campaign fired off lawsuits in several states that hung in the balance at various times after polling day. He had some success on minor procedural questions but was rejected repeatedly on claims of improprieties.
In Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign succeeded in persuading a state court to allow its observers to stand closer to the vote counting.
Mr Trump and his allies have claimed that their observers were not allowed inside the vote count at all. This is false. Trump campaign lawyers have admitted in court they had access.
But in Michigan, Georgia and Nevada, lawsuits either filed or hyped by the campaign were rejected for presenting no serious evidence of the issues they claimed.
A Nevada judge said on Friday: “Why do I grant extraordinary relief if you don’t have evidence to show the likelihood of success on the merits?”
Have those defeats deterred the president?
In spite of these setbacks, Mr Trump has continued to file lawsuits. On Saturday, his campaign said it had filed a lawsuit in Arizona claiming that potentially “thousands” of voters had been disenfranchised.
The case included previously debunked claims that ballots marked with Sharpie pens were not counted in Maricopa County. County officials have said this is not true.
Rick Hasen, an election law expert and professor at the University of California, Irvine, said Mr Trump may be continuing to launch legal claims to “further push his excuse for losing as due to fraud” or “to rile up his base and delegitimise the Biden presidency”.
“He might be doing it because he actually believes fraud cost him the election,” Mr Hasen said, adding: “We have seen no evidence of fraud so far that could conceivably affect the election results.”
What about recounts?
In some states, there is a possibility of a recount because of the close vote margins. The Trump campaign has said it wants a recount in Wisconsin, while Georgia officials have said they are planning a recount.
Past US recounts have typically altered vote totals by only hundreds of ballots. Mr Biden is leading Mr Trump in Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes and in Georgia by around 10,000.
The Associated Press on Friday found that in 31 US statewide recounts since 2000, the result has only been changed in three cases where the initial margin was fewer than 300 votes.
Has anything reached the Supreme Court? None of the new cases filed by the Trump campaign have worked their way up to the Supreme Court yet, but there is an outstanding case regarding Pennsylvania mail ballot deadlines that has seen some activity in recent days.
The case is about whether mail ballots sent by polling day, November 3, but received up to three days later can be counted or not. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court had issued the extension earlier this year but it was challenged by Republicans in the state.
Before the election the US Supreme Court declined to immediately strike down the extension but the case remains live.
The Trump campaign moved to intervene in the case this week and on Saturday one of the court’s justices, Samuel Alito, ordered Pennsylvania to follow previous guidance issued by state officials to separate such ballots from those that arrived by November 3.
Even if Republicans prevail on the legal arguments, it is unclear that the Supreme Court would throw out ballots received after polling day or that doing so would alter the outcome of the race.
Mr Biden has a lead of more than 40,000 votes in Pennsylvania and state election officials have said the number of late-arriving ballots is likely to be significantly smaller than that.
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U.S. president-elect Joe Biden has vowed to heal a deeply divided nation while he makes plans for a new administration, laying the groundwork this week for thousands of new staffers and appointees to be in place after January's inauguration.
In his first speech to the nation as its newly elected president Saturday, Biden declared it was time to "let this grim era of demonization in America begin to end," reaching out to the millions of people who voted against him to say, "Let's give each other a chance."
His calls for reconciliation at the victory celebration in Wilmington, Del., came even as President Donald Trump continued to argue that the election had been stolen from him, an indication that the divisive politics that have gripped the U.S. over the past four years are far from over.
It also suggested that even as Biden seeks to build out a government during his transition to the presidency, the president has little interest in helping him do so.
Biden named a former surgeon general, Dr. Vivek Murthy, and a former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, David Kessler, as co-chairs of a coronavirus working group set to get started, with other members expected to be announced Monday.
"For all those of you who voted for President Trump, I understand the disappointment," Biden said during a drive-in event Saturday night. "It's time to put away the harsh rhetoric, lower the temperature, see each other again."
Biden heads into his first full day as president-elect on Sunday with key staffing decisions to make as the coronavirus pandemic rages. The always-frenzied 10-week transition period before Inauguration Day on Jan. 20 already has been shortened by the extra time it took to determine the winner of Tuesday's election.
Launching 'agency review teams'
Biden will launch "agency review teams" this week. It's the group of transition staffers that have access to key agencies in the current administration to smooth the transfer of power.
The teams will collect and review information such as budgetary and staffing decisions, pending regulations and other work in progress from current staff at the federal departments.
The teams are meant to lay much of the groundwork so that the thousands of new staffers and appointees who will take over in January will have a road map and guidelines for how to continue the federal government's work without pause, and how to shift the departments toward Biden's priorities.
"People want the country to move forward," said Kate Bedingfield, Biden deputy campaign manager, in an interview on NBC's Meet the Press. They want to see Biden and Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris "have the opportunity to do the work, to get the virus under control and to get our economy back together," she said.
Biden adviser Jen Psaki pressed for the Trump-appointed head of the General Services Administration to quickly recognize Biden as the president-elect, which would free up money for the transition and clear the way for Biden's team to begin putting in place the transition process at agencies.
"America's national security and economic interests depend on the federal government signaling clearly and swiftly that the United States government will respect the will of the American people and engage in a smooth and peaceful transfer of power," Psaki said in on Twitter.
A GSA official said Sunday that step had not been taken yet.
Biden's campaign launched a transition team in May, and they've been working alongside designated staffers in Trump's administration on transition planning for months. But the agency review process begins in earnest after a new president is elected.
Trump's campaign, meanwhile, issued a statement Saturday saying the election was "far from over" and vowing to start prosecuting their case in court Monday "to ensure election laws are fully upheld and the rightful winner is seated."
Transition team
Biden's transition team has also come out with a transition-focused website — BuildBackBetter.com — and is launching transition-focused social media accounts under the username "Transition46."
The second Catholic to be elected president, Biden planned to attend church at St. Joseph on the Brandywine near his home in Wilmington on Sunday, as he does nearly every week.
His top priority in the transition is expected to be quickly naming a chief of staff. Biden suggested during the campaign that his first call after being elected would be to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, but his advisers have not said whether the two have spoken yet.
Biden said Saturday that he would announce a task force of scientists and experts Monday to develop a "blueprint" to begin beating back the virus by the time he assumes the presidency. He said his plan would be "built on bedrock science" and "constructed out of compassion, empathy and concern."
Biden was on track to win the national popular vote by more than four million, a margin that could grow as ballots continue to be counted. His win makes Trump the first incumbent president to be denied a second term since Republican George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton in 1992.
His running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, used her first address as vice president-elect to showcase her history-making place as the first Black woman to become vice president, an achievement that comes as the U.S. faces a reckoning on racial justice. The California senator is also the first person of South Asian descent elected to the vice presidency and the highest-ranking woman ever to serve in government.
"While I may be the first woman in this office, I will not be the last," Harris said in her speech Saturday night.
To win, Biden successfully unified different wings of the Democratic Party around their universal loathing of Trump, garnering support from progressive insurgents and establishment moderates alike.
"The party came together to defeat Donald Trump," said Brian Lemek, a longtime progressive fundraiser and executive director of Brady PAC (political action committee), which invested $6 million US on 2020 candidates supporting gun violence prevention efforts and voting rights. "His main job right now, we all think, is to heal the nation."
Biden senior adviser Ted Kaufman said the transition team will focus on the "nuts and bolts" of building the new administration in coming days. He said Biden plans to speak to legislative leaders and governors from both parties.
Many former Republican officeholders broke with Trump to endorse Biden's campaign. His selection of some of them to join the new government could appease Senate Republicans, who may have to confirm many of Biden's choices for top jobs. The Republican Party could retain control of the chamber after two special elections in Georgia on Jan. 5.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/us-election-biden-trudeau-wherry-1.5792300
Still, too much across-the-aisle co-operation could draw the ire of progressives. Some already worry that uncooperative Senate Republicans could force Biden to scale back his ambitious campaign promises to expand access to health care and lead a post-pandemic economic recovery that relies on federal investment in green technology and jobs to help combat climate change.
"I think there will be a huge misuse of the word 'unity' to imply that we need to water down the ideas that Joe Biden just campaigned on," said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.
Biden's efforts at bipartisan reconciliation, meanwhile, could still be derailed by Trump's refusing to concede the presidential race. Biden deputy campaign manager Bedingfield told CNN late Saturday that there's been no contact between Trump's team and Biden's.
Symone Sanders, a Biden campaign spokesperson, said "Donald Trump does not get to decide the winner of elections."
Some of the president's supporters used similar language to make the opposite argument.
"The media do not get to determine who the president is. The people do," tweeted Republican Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri. "When all lawful votes have been counted, recounts finished, and allegations of fraud addressed, we will know who the winner is."
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"四十年未看走眼" 美国历史教授预测今年大选赢家
2020-9-18 02:09| 来源：BBC
历史教授艾伦·李奇曼
美国历史教授李奇曼在1984年开始预测大选，近四十年来从未看走眼，曾成功预测了九届美国大选结果。他预言，2020年，民主党人拜登将胜出。BBC中文驻华盛顿记者冯兆音近期专访李奇曼教授。
2016年美国大选落幕后不久，历史教授艾伦·李奇曼（Allan Lichtman）突然收到一封信，来自刚刚当选总统的特朗普(专题)。
信里是《华盛顿邮报》在大选前两个月的一篇报道，尽管特朗普当时在全国民调中大幅落后，李奇曼豪言预测，特朗普将胜选。
特朗普在报道上用大号马克笔做了点评：“教授，恭喜，你说对了！”他还签上了像心电图一样的标志性签名。
图像来源，ALLAN LICHTMAN
今年73岁的李奇曼在美利坚大学教授历史学近半个世纪，但他更为世人广知的身份是：准确度极高的美国大选预测者。
李奇曼在1984年开始预测大选，近四十年来从未看走眼，成功预测了九届美国大选结果。
不过，李奇曼对2020年总统大选的预测，或许无法让现任美国总统特朗普宽心。
李奇曼教授预言，民主党人拜登将胜出这届选举。
李奇曼的预测模型有何特别之处？他使用的“13个关键指标”，比各家媒体与统计机构跑马灯般的各州民调显得更简洁。
如果有6个或以上的指标陈述为否定，现任执政党的候选人将会落选；如果少于6个的指标为否，此人将胜选。
李奇曼的13个指标包括：
1.政党授权（party mandate）：中期选举之后，执政党在美国众议院席位增加。
2.竞争：执政党总统提名人之间没有强烈竞争。
3.谋求连任：执政党的候选人是现任总统。
4.第三党：没有重要的第三党派或独立竞选人。
5.短期经济：竞选期间经济并未衰退。
6.长期经济：任期内实际人均经济增长等于或超过前两个总统任期的平均增长。
7.政策变化：现任总统对国家政策产生重大影响。
8.社会动荡：在任期内没有持续的社会动荡。
9.丑闻：现任政府无重大丑闻。
10.外交、军事失败：现任政府在外交、军事方面未出现重大失误。
11.外交、军事成就：现任政府在外交、军事方面取得重大成功。
12.在位者个人魅力：执政党的候选人极具魅力，或是一位国家英雄。
13.挑战者个人魅力：在野党的候选人没有个人魅力，也并非国家英雄。
李奇曼说，在这届选举中，13个关键指标中7个陈述为否定，意味着谋求连任的特朗普将败选。
2019年年底，只有4个指标对特朗普不利。然而，迈入2020年后，新冠疫情、反种族歧视示威在数月内席卷全美，对其不利的关键指标一下子增加了三个，分别是短期、长期的经济预期，以及社会动荡。
图像来源，GETTY IMAGES
这13个指标中的大部分是客观的，不过在竞选人的个人魅力、外交与军事成败等指标上，或许见仁见智。
外交失败与成就
李奇曼表示，特朗普在第一任期内没有重大的外交失败或成就。美国政府近期促成了以色列和阿联酋、巴林的和平协议，这被认为是特朗普的一大外交成就。
但李奇曼认为：“这协议在美国只是引得人们打哈欠。”
特朗普在白宫主持中东和平协议签署
领袖魅力
特朗普是有领袖魅力的人吗？针对这个问题，民主党支持者或特朗普的死忠粉会给出截然不同的答案。
“这是一个门槛很高的关键指标，”李奇曼对BBC表示，这一陈述至少需要国家中过半数的人认可。
2016年，李奇曼亦未视特朗普为有领袖魅力的挑战者。今年，他也没有将特朗普的对手拜登认定为富有魅力的挑战者。
丑闻
在上一届选举中，指控特朗普性骚扰女性、嫖妓、歧视少数族裔等丑闻就已满天飞，但这似乎没有动摇他的支持者。特朗普的相关丑闻，还是左右大选的指标吗？
“我们不会深究每个关键指标背后的因素，”李奇曼说。特朗普上台后因“通俄门”被调查、因“乌克兰电话门”而成为美国历史上第三位被国会众议院弹劾的总统，符合“丑闻”指标的定义。
关键指标以外的未知数
在李奇曼的13个关键指标之外，美国大选仍存有许多未知数。
美国重大选举中有“十月惊奇”的说法，指的是在选举前夕最后时刻的重大变故，无论是自然发生，还是被一方故意曝光。
李奇曼说，两件在他预测之外的事情或会撼动大选结果：选民受阻（voter suppression）与俄罗斯的介入。
“我极其担心俄罗斯的介入，”李奇曼说。
美国情报机构称，俄罗斯安全机构在2016年大选竞选期间，入侵了民主党全国委员会及希拉里·克林顿的电子邮件，泄露的邮件随后对希拉里的竞选活动造成了负面影响。莫斯科当局否认了这一指控。
微软公司近日则表示，来自俄罗斯、中国与伊朗的黑客，企图干预今年的美国总统大选。
美国邮政局缘何成总统大选的争议焦点
关于邮寄投票的争议，近期成为美国政治辩论的焦点之一，民主党副总统候选人哈里斯（Kamala Harris，贺锦丽）警告，打压非裔与学生选民、邮寄选票的手段可能会影响大选结果。
普选票无法体现大选结果
在2000年阿尔·戈尔（Al Gore）对上乔治·W·布什（George W Bush）的大选中，李奇曼的预测存有争议性，他当年预言戈尔会胜选。当年大选在历时多周的争议后，由布什险胜。
“我当年预测的是普选票赛果，戈尔的确胜出了普选，” 李奇曼称。
美国总统并非直接由选民一人一票选出的，真正决定胜负是选举人团（electoral college）制度。
候选人可能更多的普选票，但是仍然无法赢得足够多的州份而获得入主白宫所需的270张选举人票。
美国历史上共有五位总统在未获得普选票多数的情况下当选。其中三次发生在19世纪，最近五届大选中，却已出现两次得票多者落选的情况。
在2016年，特朗普的得票数比希拉里·克林顿（Hillary Clinton）少近300万张；在2000年，戈尔的普选票比布什多超过50万。
每个州在选举团中都有一定数量的选票。
李奇曼说，自2016年起他不再预测普选票，转而预测选举人票的结果。
“普选票的多寡不再反映胜利了，”他分析道，随着美国人口分布的演变，加州(专题)和纽约(专题)州聚集了为数众多的民主党支持者。这两个人口大州是民主党的囊中物，但也意味着，普选票数的多少，很大程度上无法体现大选赛果。
“民调被错用”
大选前，美国各家民调机构出尽浑身解数，希望探明拜登与特朗普的民意支持度。
不过，每个看客心中都存有疑问：在2016年荒腔走板的大选民调，还值得相信吗？
专家认为，民调不是经常错误，但错误出现的次数已足以为人们敲响警钟：民调数字仅供参考。在取样、统计等多个环节，民调都可能出现差错。
在2016年大选中，关键战场州的民调误差、“害羞的特朗普选民”等因素，导致民调与实际选举结果不符。
BBC中文记者冯兆音有关美国大选民调的分析：
各家民调机构出尽浑身解数，希望探明两人目前的支持度。在近期民调中，前副总统拜登的支持率领先特朗普。然而，一个关键问题是：在2016年美国大选中错得离谱的民调，还值得相信吗？
李奇曼是美国大选观察者的少数派：他从不关注每日起起落落的民调数字。“民调被错误使用了，它们没有预测性，”他对BBC说。
他还在推特上与民调学家西尔弗（Nate Sliver）展开了唇枪舌战，西尔弗质疑李奇曼的预测往绩，李奇曼则在受访时称对方整合民调的工作“与行政助理没什么区别”。
“民调无论准确与否，它只显示某一个时间点的选民倾向，” 李奇曼说。
“特朗普没有明白我的预测”
预测中最困难的部分，是撇开自己的政治倾向，以历史学家的眼光分析现状。
李奇曼是一个民主党人，但在过去七届选举中，他四次预测共和党人获胜。“我受到过很多质疑，尤其是在2016年，人们觉得我疯了。”
四年前，李奇曼直到大选前两个月，才预测特朗普胜选。当时他判断，有6个指标对特朗普有利。尽管每次预测都让他七上八下、忐忑不安，他说，今年的预测比上届选举简单多了。
不过，总统大概再也不会给教授写信了。
在李奇曼公布拜登胜选的预测后，特朗普竞选阵营的发言人莫塔夫（Tim Murtaugh）回应说：“美国选民将决定这次选举的结果，而不是学者或教授。”
特朗普四年前的来信给李奇曼带来一份惊喜，不过他说，特朗普没有理解预测模型内藏的道理。
“他没明白，我的预测注重的是治理，而不是竞选。”李奇曼认为，正谋求连任的特朗普仍以挑战者的形式来竞选，但在执政的四年中犯下了诸多治理失误。
“传统的竞选没有意义”
李奇曼还希望通过预测传达另一个信息：应改革美国总统竞选的形式。
“传统的竞选没有意义，”他说，与其花费数千万美元投放竞选广告、穿州过市参与拉票集会，“候选人应该着重建立授权（mandate）、实施更佳的政策。”
除此之外，李奇曼还想对选民说，积极投票、发动亲友投票，无论他们决定支持哪一位候选人。
“前总统林肯（Abraham Lincoln）说过，预测未来最好的方法，就是去创造它。”
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æå¥æ¼ä»1984å¹´å¼å§é¢æµç¾å½å¤§éç»æï¼è¿ååå¹´æ¥ä»æªçèµ°ç¼ï¼æåé¢æµä¹å±èµ¢å®¶ãç¹ææ®äº¦ææç»ï¼2020è°å°èåºï¼æå¥æ¼å·²ç»æè¨çæ³ãwww.bbc.com
这位教授又预测对了。
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2 hr 35 min ago
Gary Cohn attends a meeting at the White House in Washington, DC, in 2018. Kevin Dietsch/Pool/Getty Images
President Donald Trump's former top economic adviser Gary Cohn on Sunday evening congratulated President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris on their victory.
Trump's former top economic adviser congratulates Biden and Harris
From CNN's Jeremy Diamond
Gary Cohn attends a meeting at the White House in Washington, DC, in 2018. Kevin Dietsch/Pool/Getty Images
President Donald Trump's former top economic adviser Gary Cohn on Sunday evening congratulated President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris on their victory.
A former Goldman Sachs executive, Cohn was the director of the White House's National Economic Council. He resigned in March 2018 after disagreeing with Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Cohn, a Democrat, told CNBC in September that he was undecided about voting for Trump's reelection.
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Trump denies defeat, but team sees lawsuits as increasingly futile
There is awareness among Trump's aides that the election has been decided, according to three of the people
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Jared Kushner, Melania Trump advise Trump to accept election loss
President Donald Trump's inner circle is beginning to split over his ongoing refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election, as Jared Kushner and first lady Melania Trump advised him to come to terms with President-elect Joe Biden's victory and his adult sons pressed him and allies to keep...
Jared Kushner, Melania Trump advise Trump to accept election loss
By Kaitlan Collins, Kate Bennett, Jeremy Diamond and Kevin Liptak, CNNUpdated 10:15 PM ET, Sun November 8, 2020
(CNN) President Donald Trump's inner circle is beginning to split over his ongoing refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election, as Jared Kushner and first lady Melania Trump advised him to come to terms with President-elect Joe Biden's victory and his adult sons pressed him and allies to keep fighting.
Kushner, the President's son-in-law and senior adviser, has approached him to concede, two sources told CNN. The first lady, according to a separate source familiar with the conversations, has privately said the time has come for him to accept the election loss.
Meanwhile, Trump's two adult sons, Donald Jr. and Eric, have urged allies to continue pressing on and they have pushed Republicans and supporters to publicly reject the results even as CNN and other news organizations projected the race for Biden on Saturday.
Messaging blitz
Trump's campaign is planning a messaging blitz to fuel its argument -- unsupported by any evidence to date -- that the President's second term is being stolen from him through corrupt vote counts in battleground states, three sources familiar with the matter told CNN on Sunday evening.One of the ways it plans to do that is presenting obituaries of people the campaign will claim voted in the election and considering having campaign style rallies to amplify the message, according to two of the sources.
The goal of the effort is to raise enough doubt about the results that secretaries of state in battlegrounds feel pressure to open investigations or call on their own for recounts -- something that would prolong the process and potentially give the campaign more time to advance its litigation through the courts.
A previous fact check by CNN of claims by a handful of prominent Republicans, such as members of Trump's family and supporters like former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell, of dead people voting in Michigan fell apart under scrutiny. A CNN analysis of the claim and the purported backing for it did not find a single instance of that happening.
Trump pushing legal challenges
The President, who was at his golf course in Sterling, Virginia, on Saturday when the race was called, has not denied the outcome of the election privately even as he does so publicly, sources told CNN. But he's continuing to push his attorneys to pursue legal challenges that would delay formal certification of the results, and he has made no public indication that he is ready to accept the results of the election.Trump campaign spokesman Jason Miller in a tweet Sunday morning denied that Kushner has approached Trump, although CNN stands by its reporting. "This story is not true," said Miller. "Jared has advised @realDonaldTrump to pursue all available legal remedies to ensure accuracy."
Trump asserted in a statement from his campaign -- moments after CNN and other networks projected that Biden will become the 46th President of the United States -- that Biden is "rushing to falsely pose as the winner" and that the race is "far from over."
"I will not rest until the American People have the honest vote count they deserve and that Democracy demands," Trump said in the statement, which explains that the campaign's legal battle will begin Monday.
Biden-Harris deputy campaign manager Kate Bedingfield said Saturday night that there had been no communication between Biden and Trump, or between any representatives from either campaign, since the race was called earlier in the day.
And Biden campaign senior adviser Symone Sanders, told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of The Union" Sunday that "a number of Republicans from the Hill have reached out," but said, "I don't believe anyone from the White House has."
Biden won the presidency Saturday after the battleground state of Pennsylvania pushed the Democrat over the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House.
White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, who recently tested positive for coronavirus, discussed next steps with the legal team Saturday.
Meanwhile, some members of Trump's party on Sunday vocalized their opposition to the President conceding the election, urging him not to do so.
Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, one of the President's closest allies in the Senate, said "the President should not concede" during an interview on Fox News.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who was also Trump's one-time primary rival, also advised against concession, saying it would be "premature."
And Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri, a member of Republican leadership in the Senate, would not acknowledge on Sunday that Biden is the President-elect, citing both the legal challenges initiated by Trump's lawyers in states across the country and the ongoing vote counting process as reasons.
Trump's adult sons push ahead in fight
Trump's two adult sons have been key voices in urging the President and his allies to continue contesting the results of the 2020 election, according to multiple sources.Beyond public posturing on social media, both Don Jr. and Eric Trump have been digging in their heels, seeking to drum up broad GOP support for contesting the election results and telling allies they genuinely believe the election was fraudulent.
In recent conversations, Eric Trump has told allies he believes the election was "stolen from us," according to a source familiar with his comments, and vowed to fight to overturn the results.
And in the days since Don Jr. called out Republicans -- and in particular "2024 GOP hopefuls" -- for not offering sufficient backing to the President's claims, the eldest son has been waging a lobbying effort among senators and governors to release supportive statements, according to people familiar with the conversations.
So far there has been only a moderate wave of outward support from Republicans, though some -- including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and House Republican whip Steve Scalise -- have said the President's legal maneuvers must be resolved before the election can be called. And South Dakota Gov.
Kristi Noem, who is said to be considering a run in 2024, appeared Sunday on ABC to say the President deserves his day in court.
Many other Republicans are also growing frustrated with the pressure campaign and lack of evidence of voter fraud thus far presented by the Trump team, with some prominent Republicans urging the President's team to put up or shut up.
But Trump's sons are not alone in encouraging the President to wage legal war rather than concede. Meadows is also said to be encouraging an arduous legal fight as have Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi and the President's longtime political advisers Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie.
In the days following the election, Don Jr. traveled to Georgia, where two congressional races -- one of which has already advanced to a January 5 runoff and the other likely to -- could determine control of the Senate. While he was there he held a press conference decrying the vote-counting process in the state. People familiar with the matter said he also held meetings focused on the upcoming Senate contests.
The President has privately expressed frustration that some Republican leaders appear ready to move on from his race to focus on the Georgia election, people familiar with the conversations said, insisting they focus on him instead.
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Trump, who never admits defeat, mulls how to keep up fight
U.S. President Donald Trump never admits defeat. But he faces a stark choice now that Democrat Joe Biden has won the White House: Concede graciously for the sake of the nation or don't -- and get evicted anyway.
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这是被窜婆fire掉的吧，落井下石的来了2 hr 35 min ago
Trump's former top economic adviser congratulates Biden and Harris
From CNN's Jeremy Diamond
Gary Cohn attends a meeting at the White House in Washington, DC, in 2018. Kevin Dietsch/Pool/Getty Images
President Donald Trump's former top economic adviser Gary Cohn on Sunday evening congratulated President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris on their victory.
A former Goldman Sachs executive, Cohn was the director of the White House's National Economic Council. He resigned in March 2018 after disagreeing with Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Cohn, a Democrat, told CNBC in September that he was undecided about voting for Trump's reelection.
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你以为个个都像班农似的？一个劲地献殷勤。
