Reuters: 意大利研究显示，冠状病毒在意大利出现的时间比想象的要早

[lindamy]

Coronavirus emerged in Italy earlier than thought, Italian study shows​

By Giselda Vagnoni
2 MIN READ
NOVEMBER 15, 202012:39 PMUPDATED 5 DAYS AGO

FILE PHOTO: People wearing masks walk on a street, as the number of people infected by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to rise, in Venice, Italy, November 14, 2020. REUTERS/Manuel Silvestri/File Photo

ROME (Reuters) - The new coronavirus was circulating in Italy since September 2019, a study by the National Cancer Institute (INT) of the Italian city of Milan shows, signaling that COVID-19 might have spread beyond China earlier than previously thought.

The World Health Organization has said the new coronavirus and COVID-19, the respiratory disease it causes, were unknown before the outbreak was first reported in Wuhan, in central China, in December.

Italy’s first COVID-19 patient was detected on Feb. 21 in a little town near Milan, in the northern region of Lombardy.

But the Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show that 11,6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020, had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February.

A further specific SARS-CoV-2 antibodies test was carried out by the University of Siena for the same research titled “Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the pre-pandemic period in Italy”.

It showed that four cases dated back to the first week of October were also positive for antibodies neutralizing the virus, meaning they had got infected in September, Giovanni Apolone, a co-author of the study, told Reuters.

“This is the main finding: people with no symptoms not only were positive after the serological tests but had also antibodies able to kill the virus,” Apolone said.

“It means that the new coronavirus can circulate among the population for long and with a low rate of lethality not because it is disappearing but only to surge again,” he added.

Italian researchers told Reuters in March that they reported a higher than usual number of cases of severe pneumonia and flu in Lombardy in the last quarter of 2019 in a sign that the new coronavirus might have circulated earlier than previously thought.

Reporting by Giselda Vagnoni; editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise

 

[lindamy]

Google 翻译：

意大利研究显示，冠状病毒在意大利出现的时间比想象的要早
吉塞尔达·瓦格诺尼（Giselda Vagnoni）
202012年11月15日

文件图片：2020年11月14日，在意大利威尼斯，随着被冠状病毒病（COVID-19）感染的人数不断增加，戴着口罩的人走在大街上。路透社/ Manuel Silvestri / File Photo

路透社罗马-意大利米兰市国家癌症研究所（INT）的一项研究显示，新的冠状病毒自2019年9月开始在意大利传播，这表明COVID-19可能比以前想象的更早地传播到中国之外。

世界卫生组织表示，新的冠状病毒和由其引起的呼吸道疾病COVID-19，在爆发于12月在中国中部武汉首次报道之前尚不清楚。

意大利的第一名COVID-19患者于2月21日在伦巴第北部地区米兰附近的一个小镇被发现。

但是，由INT的科学杂志《 Tumori Journal》发表的意大利研究人员的发现表明，在2019年9月至2020年3月之间参加肺癌筛查试验的959名健康志愿者中，有11.6％的冠状病毒抗体早于2月之前。

锡耶纳大学对题为“意大利大流行前期意外检测到SARS-CoV-2抗体”的同一研究进行了另一项特定的SARS-CoV-2抗体测试。

该研究的合著者乔瓦尼·阿波罗内（Giovanni Apolone）告诉路透社，这表明，追溯至10月第一周的4例病例也对中和该病毒的抗体呈阳性，这意味着它们已于9月感染。

“这是主要发现：没有症状的人不仅在血清学检查后呈阳性，而且具有能够杀死病毒的抗体，” Apolone说。

他说：“这意味着新的冠状病毒可以在人群中长期传播，并且致死率很低，这并不是因为它已经消失，而只是再次激增。”

意大利研究人员在3月告诉路透社，他们报告称在2019年最后一个季度伦巴第大区发生严重肺炎和流感的病例数量比平常高，这表明新冠状病毒的传播可能比以前想象的要早。

Giselda Vagnoni的报道； Emelia Sithole-Matarise编辑

 

[lindamy]

Ottawa

COVID-19 likely in Ottawa before 1st case declared​

Dozens may have been infected by March 11, public health officials now believe​

Andrew Foote · CBC News · Posted: Nov 18, 2020 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: November 18

Health officials may never know who really had Ottawa's first case of COVID-19. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

Ottawa's first confirmed case of COVID-19 was announced way back on March 11, but public health officials now believe the illness was spreading in the community before that.

That first local case involved a man who had been to Austria and who developed symptoms after returning to Ottawa. He went for a COVID-19 test at the General campus of The Ottawa Hospital, days before Ottawa Public Health (OPH) began opening dedicated testing sites in the city.

When OPH learns of an Ottawa resident's positive test, they trace back to determine when and where they became "symptomatic, infectious and/or likely transmitting the virus," because that's the information that matters most.

"Given the commonly mild or asymptomatic nature of COVID infection, we often don't get a signal until the transmission has already been occurring in the community for some time, maybe even until a hospitalization occurs," Patrick Saunders-Hastings, an epidemiologist and risk scientist who teaches at Carleton University, told CBC last month.

A health-care worker and test patient prepare for the opening of Ottawa's Brewer Arena COVID-19 testing site on March 13, 2020. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press)

That's why, months after reporting that first case on March 11, OPH revealed it had discovered a number of cases of people who had neither left the province nor had close contact with another confirmed case, but who started experiencing symptoms and eventually tested positive for COVID-19 in early- to mid-March.

Dozens infected​

Now, OPH believes dozens of Ottawa-area residents had contracted the illness by March 11, which happens to be the same day COVID-19 was declared a pandemic.

In fact, the evidence now suggests Ottawa had its first case of COVID-19 a full month earlier, on Feb. 10. OPH also linked that case to travel, but hasn't determined whether the individual was in Ottawa while they were contagious.

OPH now believes there were three more travel-related cases within two weeks, and that by March 11, the illness had likely spread to 61 residents.

The Ottawa International Airport was still a busy place in late February. It wasn't until March 13 that the federal government warned against all international travel. (Radio-Canada)

'Alternative explanations'​

According to the province's public health data, Hastings Prince Edward Public Health, which covers Bancroft, Belleville, Picton and Trenton, Ont., logged a positive COVID-19 case as early as Feb. 1.

But a spokesperson for the health unit cautioned that, as in Ottawa, where some of the earliest cases may have involved people who were infected while travelling, it doesn't necessarily mean COVID-19 was spreading through the area at that time.

The spokesperson also noted that the similarities between COVID-19 and influenza symptoms may have confused matters.

"There are other alternative explanations, such as back-to-back [influenza and COVID-19] infections, which is more likely in this case," the spokesperson said.

The Eastern Ontario Health Unit also traced possible COVID-19 cases before March, one in Prescott-Russell in mid-January and another in late February.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/covid19-ottawa-cases-february-timeline-1.5755415

 

[superlover]

我一直觉得在武汉大流行前的新冠病毒也在美国低度流行。
但中国政府和习近平害怕什么，就是不许可国家组织透明调查，整个中国跟着背锅

 

[向问天]

 

[向问天]

首先在武汉爆发的原因是：
1，中国不隐瞒。
2，中国正好是春节前，人员大规模聚集和流动。
3，中国人没有同时发生的大规模流感打掩护。
4，中国因为有萨斯的教训，所以特别重视。做各种核酸检测。
5，中国人有喜欢去医院的习惯，相比美国人，就当流感死在家里，因为去了医生也是告诉你回家多喝水没有药治。在中国对付流感有中药。

 

[光放]

我一直觉得在武汉大流行前的新冠病毒也在美国低度流行。
但中国政府和习近平害怕什么，就是不许可国家组织透明调查，整个中国跟着背锅

1. 谁来调查：由澳大利亚和美国牵头主旨调查？他们有信用度吗？不说伊拉克的洗衣服，就是他们毫无事实依据的栽赃言行，他们没有资格得到信任。
2. 调查的目的：唯一有意义的调查应该是病毒来源。来自于自然还是人造的？前者应该是科学家的事情，通过正常的科研合作，比如共享病毒基因图谱，共享可疑的动物病毒信息等。这些应该由WHO来牵头。但是，由WHO组织的调查对美，澳有意义吗？是他们想要的吗？
如果是自然来源的病毒泄露，简单的对比实验室已有的动物病毒基因即可。用不着大动干戈的调查。如果是人造病毒的泄露，还等着调查组去搜集证据吗？
如果不能得到公平，客观的调查结果，而只是为坐实某种指控搜罗证据为目的，中国为什么要接受？
3. 公平原则，美国有遍布世界的最多的，由军方控制的实验室。有研究发现中国境外的，更早的病例（或者可疑），任何主张调查的机构有客观，全面，公正的调查方案吗？只是对中国进行调查，这不公平。
4. 调查的调查的最好结果（对中国而言）就是查无实据，中共已经消灭了证据。因为实验室太干净了。调查的最可能结论：中国实验室安全管理不符合要求，存在病毒泄露的极高风险。虽然没有找到直接证据，但是因为病毒与目前发现的所有动物病毒都不相同，因此不能排除病毒人为制造并泄露的可能性。

如果对面邻居的快递包裹丢失，要求进你家来搜查，你会接受吗？你不会觉得这是侮辱吗？这邻居在要求搜查（自己而不是警察）之前已经对所有的邻居说你就是个作案多起的贼。

这调查的用心不是要摘你的锅，而是要给你换一口更大，更黑的锅。

 

[光放]

中国南方自建国以来各种流行病，特别是萨尔斯病毒。所以有完善的传染病报告制度。
过度医疗问题使得有必要，没有必要的检查非常普遍。
中国医生（起码和加拿大医生相比）经验更丰富，更全面。更普遍，更方便的会诊制度。

 

[rentcfc]

中国可以马上CT, 各种检查，来确诊不明肺炎。这边医生会让你回家喝热水。

 

[多伦多carpool]

嗯，看来不是武汉把病毒带到全世界，是武汉第一个勇敢的揭示了病毒，给ccp一个大大的赞。

 

[superlover]

中国政府WHO不许可拍专家到武汉调查

1. 谁来调查：由澳大利亚和美国牵头主旨调查？他们有信用度吗？不说伊拉克的洗衣服，就是他们毫无事实依据的栽赃言行，他们没有资格得到信任。
2. 调查的目的：唯一有意义的调查应该是病毒来源。来自于自然还是人造的？前者应该是科学家的事情，通过正常的科研合作，比如共享病毒基因图谱，共享可疑的动物病毒信息等。这些应该由WHO来牵头。但是，由WHO组织的调查对美，澳有意义吗？是他们想要的吗？
如果是自然来源的病毒泄露，简单的对比实验室已有的动物病毒基因即可。用不着大动干戈的调查。如果是人造病毒的泄露，还等着调查组去搜集证据吗？
如果不能得到公平，客观的调查结果，而只是为坐实某种指控搜罗证据为目的，中国为什么要接受？
3. 公平原则，美国有遍布世界的最多的，由军方控制的实验室。有研究发现中国境外的，更早的病例（或者可疑），任何主张调查的机构有客观，全面，公正的调查方案吗？只是对中国进行调查，这不公平。
4. 调查的调查的最好结果（对中国而言）就是查无实据，中共已经消灭了证据。因为实验室太干净了。调查的最可能结论：中国实验室安全管理不符合要求，存在病毒泄露的极高风险。虽然没有找到直接证据，但是因为病毒与目前发现的所有动物病毒都不相同，因此不能排除病毒人为制造并泄露的可能性。

如果对面邻居的快递包裹丢失，要求进你家来搜查，你会接受吗？你不会觉得这是侮辱吗？这邻居在要求搜查（自己而不是警察）之前已经对所有的邻居说你就是个作案多起的贼。

这调查的用心不是要摘你的锅，而是要给你换一口更大，更黑的锅。

 

[臭农民]

嗯，看来不是武汉把病毒带到全世界，是武汉第一个勇敢的揭示了病毒，给ccp一个大大的赞。

对，全世界的人都是傻逼，流行了，要到死才知道