贵圈
政府都对党
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- 2014-10-21
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昨天与@OTTAWATJ，讨论
疫苗研发中，是否可以借助中和抗体滴度（level）来对已经证明有效，但是要拓展到儿童年龄段的疫苗进行三期临床简化。也就是
直接对未成年人的剂量减半，并通过中和抗体滴度测量，替代传统双盲实验。来确定有效性。
圈儿哥提出这个办法的时候，仅仅是基于人性考虑。也许可以挽救很多儿童疫苗心肌炎受害者。
没想到，今天简单一搜索。靠。这个主意刚刚在自然杂志已经发表，得到了科学上的证明，正式发表了。
反省一下，我不牛逼，我只是有人性，并且，遵循commonsense。就可以beat医疗官员，追上最前线的科研结论。
切题了。
Neutralizing antibody levels are highly predictive of immune protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection
Neutralizing antibody levels are highly predictive of immune protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection - Nature Medicine
Estimates of the levels of neutralizing antibodies necessary for protection against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 or severe COVID-19 are a fraction of the mean level in convalescent serum and will be useful in guiding vaccine rollouts.
www.nature.com
Predictive models of immune protection from COVID-19 are urgently needed to identify correlates of protection to assist in the future deployment of vaccines. To address this, we analyzed the relationship between in vitro neutralization levels and the observed protection from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection using data from seven current vaccines and from convalescent cohorts. We estimated the neutralization level for 50% protection against detectable SARS-CoV-2 infection to be 20.2% of the mean convalescent level (95% confidence interval (CI) = 14.4–28.4%). The estimated neutralization level required for 50% protection from severe infection was significantly lower (3% of the mean convalescent level; 95% CI = 0.7–13%, P = 0.0004). Modeling of the decay of the neutralization titer over the first 250 d after immunization predicts that a significant loss in protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection will occur, although protection from severe disease should be largely retained. Neutralization titers against some SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern are reduced compared with the vaccine strain, and our model predicts the relationship between neutralization and efficacy against viral variants. Here, we show that neutralization level is highly predictive of immune protection, and provide an evidence-based model of SARS-CoV-2 immune protection that will assist in developing vaccine strategies to control the future trajectory of the pandemic.
