Canada CPI 4.7% yoy in October

[lifeisfun]

每月0.25%，如何？

没问题

 

[veritable]

And I think June 2022 vs June 2021 will be <3%. We will still be playing catch up from the lows of 2020 and early 2021 until at least Apr 2022.

I don't really care about Oct 2021 vs Oct 2020 being well over 4%. That is a sign of a recovering economy.

 

[贾和平]

加息? Don't be so sure. Maybe once or twice symbolically if inflation keeps creeping up at the current rate next year. However, from the current economic point of view, and taking into the base effects, I won't be surprised the inflation could come down to around 3% in the summer of 2022. That will be not far from the BOC inflation target range and prove the central banks' prediction that inflation is transitory. Also, the inflation and interest rate of our biggest trading partner could be another decisive factor that BOC has to consider.

Don't forget Canadian government has a $1.2 T debt. The interest raises 1%. the government needs to pay interest $12 B more for its debt. If consumers don't scream and yell about inflation the government won't really care about inflation. The government and its servant BOC can just talk about but do nothing about inflation because inflation makes the government's book look better. Inflation raises GDP then the ratio of the government debt to GDP becomes smaller. And higher inflation, more taxes government collects.

加息 or not 加息, who knows. The Vancouver port is not accessible to the rest of Canada now. That could be a blow to raise inflation. If the construction workers slackly work 8 hours/day and 5 days/week, like here in Ottawa, and rebuilding the roads and railway won't be completed before the frozen season, inflation could get worse from now on.

Never trust politicians and don't trust bankers either. The central bankers now are all like politicians. No more central bankers would have Paul Volker's guts, against both sides of congressmen, announcing the interest rise by a full percentage point at once on a Saturday night to wage war on inflation in the late 70s. All Fed members now are carefully selected by POTUS to meet its political needs.

Think about this, in the early 90s, when the US CPI was about 6.2%, the unemployment rate was around 6--7%, Fed rate was approx 8+%.

Now the US CPI is 6.2% in October, the unemployment rate was around 4+%, Fed rate is 0.25% plus $120 B QE/ month ( Tapering $50/M begins in late November).

What does that tell us? "May you live in interesting times."


Note: Italic was amended for precision on Nov.18

 

[阿土仔]

加不加息，左右都得死！

 

[chicago666]

我是指望黑五换个手机的，还没到黑五呢，已经变相加价了两三百，日子不好过啊

 

[charley2]

记得95年前后利息曾经到过10%，希望不会到那么糟。

 

[ccc]

 

[lindamy]

记得95年前后利息曾经到过10%，希望不会到那么糟。

2000年左右买房，房价上升了，利息下降了，借贷所交的月供相差不多。所以是刚需，该买就买，里外差不多。

 

[billwanhua]

现在是两难，急速加息死得快，房地产崩溃，股市崩溃，本来所有东西都涨了，加息没有余钱应付债务，不加息，通胀没法控制。 只能慢慢加息。

 

[lifeisfun]

反正凭空印出那么多钱来，最终是要付出代价的，这一辈或者下几辈得有人接着