My BS on BF
Part one: Black Friday Sale:
If you could not find anything really reduced price in stores on this Black Friday Sale, come to stock markets, and you will find lots of stock price reduced. Black Friday Sale is done now and we look forwards to seeing whether stock markets will be continuously on sale on Cyber Monday.
Captain Obvious, stock markets haven't had a real correction since October 2020. US stock markets fell ~5 % in a no-event small correction then shot up 9% since September low. The reasons are, apart from the 3Q earnings beat, everybody is aware of Fed continuous QE, and the government eased fiscal policies-- spending projects one after another. So it seems that everyone becomes a genius in stock markets. Money made from stock markets has been never easier than ever before.
Sir John Templeton once said: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Markets at now are back and forth between optimism and euphoria. If Markets don't have a few healthy corrections, they will lean towards euphoria and eventually crash and burn. Getting healthy correction needs either an event or central banks winding down the stimulus. Look at the diagram of the leverage from the US brokerage accounts below, it is not hard to understand why markets refused any meaningful corrections for so long. Buy the dip is the name of the current stock market game with leverage. When anyone signs an account with Brocker Robinhood, he or she automatically signed in a leverage account with it. That is as dangerous as no gun control in America.
When will the meaningful corrections, around 10%, in stock markets occur?
it could be the time when either an event-driven or a shifted Feds monetary policy induces a markets-fall to trigger certain numbers of margin calls.
By saying that I'm not praying for a market falling to crash then some sidelines can jump in. To get a healthy stock market makes it last longer and keeps the economy going strong.
Part two: for some specific posts in this thread:
不一定，败灯的中期选举马上就到了，本来现在政绩就不行，股市如果撑不住，中期选举肯定完蛋。原油打压下来应该是主要目的，这样通胀降下来，美联储反而没有太大压力结束taper和加息了，这样可以从中期保股市
对，如果不考虑别的因素（地缘政治，突发事件），光从这个南非的变种，对金融市场的打击力度是有限的，这个变种目前消息是传播的速度是印度DELTA的2倍，是不太好，但影响力度是有限的，反而把通胀的压力减轻了。
通胀碰到病毒也怕了。天天炒通胀，股市依然扶摇直上。
今天股市油市双跌，航空游轮大跌，疫苗股大涨
Crude oil price is down ~10%, but we all know that gasoline and natural gas prices down will take time. OPEC+ will have its meeting on December 2, whether it will stop pumping an extra 400,000 bpd /day or not remains a question. Even gas prices do relieve some inflation pressure, others such as housing, food, and labor costs are still at play. Fed will buy 120-15=$105B in December and so on $15 B reduce per month until June 2022 to completely stop its stimulus. So Fed is still QE the economy for another six months. Will the new covid variant ease the inflation? We don't have any numbers yet. If this more transmissible variant Omicron spreads to populous Asia nations, which is where the supply chains are, and it evades immune protection to vaccinated people there and the production will be interrupted. The supply problems will become improved or get worse? Time will tell.
5月出来一些就一直没敢进，正想进点航空股，还没来得及就一直涨上去了。今天刚刚大降，又不敢了。
Warren Buffett once said: "Most people shouldn’t pick individual stocks." If you do have knowledge of the stock you pick and confidently believe the stock price is in your investing or trading range, but are not sure whether it will be continuously falling after you buy it. No one knows. You, me, and almost CFCers have no ability of 掐算, why didn't do the dollar cost average to buy part of it on the Black Friday Sale, then add more if it falls further, or just leave it later if it shoots over your price range?
好比说你有1000块，你只用其中10块去炒股，你的心理素质也会很好的。
A day trader is a tough job. They normally can do it for others for a living but hardly for themselves long. CFCers always use the word "
炒股", and it mixes up the stock trading and investing. There is a clear distinction in terms of time horizons and fund allocation between stock investing and trading. I classify my portfolio into three categories: Green-- long term, Yellow--- middle term, and Red---short term. The fund allocation and time horizons are different in each category. For the trading account (I called it my play account colored in Red), it is certainly not at a 1,000: 1 ratio, but I put the money I can afford to lose in each stock. I don't feel pain if I lose 50, even 80% of it.
Amended for typos and grammar on Nov. 27, 2021.
www.cnn.com
