今天10点，加拿大央行

[贾和平]

Never say never! That was B of C's statement, The Financial markets have to listen to. I believe B of C has more Ph.D. than CFC has.

I believe anyone and I don't believe anyone! I listen/ watch, think, and learn. Don't we remember Sr. Rockefeller went to back his office and sold almost his stocks when he heard what his shoe polisher say to him?

你真的相信 23年通胀能跌到2.5%， 24年能跌到2%？LOL

假设23，24年是这样 2.5% 2%, 得满足好几个条件吧
俄乌消除仇恨，重修于好
中美继续重温2000-2016年全球化蜜月
供应链重新回到2016年水平，一个订单，$1 能买到现在$2 $3的东西，还免费送货。

算算概率有多大？

This is what he said today:

"CPI inflation in Canada is 5.7%, above the Bank’s forecast in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR)... CPI inflation is now expected to average almost 6% in the first half of 2022... expected to ease to about 2½% in the second half of 2023 and return to the 2% target in 2024".

The Governor of the Bank of Canada is neither a good financial advisor nor a good forecaster.

Watch the video to hear what he said:

Current Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem:

浏览附件1012116

 

[ert0000]

Never say never! That was B of C's statement, The Financial markets have to listen to. I believe B of C has more Ph.D. than CFC has.

I believe anyone and I don't believe anyone! I listen/ watch, think, and learn. Don't we remember Sr. Rockefeller went to back his office and sold almost his stocks when he heard what his shoe polisher say to him?










Watch the video to hear what he said:

人算不如天算，这么多博士和大师，有谁算出普金会发动对乌克兰的全面战争？

恕我直言，我可不敢做23，24年通胀还在2% 2.5%的白日梦。

随便夜观天象，‘凶’的卦象远远大过‘吉’的卦象。

 

[billwanhua]

Those are contributions made by former and current Bank of Canada Governors to the Canadian housing market:


Current Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem:

浏览附件1012116


Former Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz:

Key, a Toronto-based real-estate technology company advised by former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz, was launching a digital platform to make home-buying easier by lowering down-payment requirements and removing the need to qualify for a mortgage. Buyers can co-own a house by paying 2.5% of a property's value, lower than the typical 20% requirement, and then make monthly payments that would partly be rent and partly go into increasing the buyer's stake in the property.

Also, the data shows CMHC was in reduction of taxpayer exposure to the housing market. The share of Insured mortgages has declined from 47% to 26% over the past five years. That could be good news for Canadian taxpayers when housing market...; on the other side of the coin, it increases the risk of...

what a moron!

 

[lili25777]

人算不如天算，这么多博士和大师，有谁算出普金会发动对乌克兰的全面战争？

不懂就问啊，有房子付不起利息的，卖房子不就得了？当时王天师不是说贷款测试压力都是5%，只要银行敢贷给你，就说明你扛得住风险，吧啦吧啦的吗？这离5%不是还差着半截子呢吗？

 

[ert0000]

不懂就问啊，有房子付不起利息的，卖房子不就得了？当时王天师不是说贷款测试压力都是5%，只要银行敢贷给你，就说明你扛得住风险，吧啦吧啦的吗？这离5%不是还差着半截子呢吗？

其实如果都严格按政府的压力测试，倒是问题不大，实际操作中，很多人都在打擦边球或提交不实文件，这批人还不少。

升一个 1%，10万元的贷款一年就多付1000. 算算吧 如果升 3%， 有50万贷款， 一年就多交15000

 

[tt8966]

有的银行固定利率都4了，感觉一下就涨上去了

 

[lili25777]

其实如果都严格按政府的压力测试，倒是问题不大，实际操作中，很多人都在打擦边球或提交不实文件，这批人还不少。

升一个 1%，10万元的贷款一年就多付1000. 算算吧 如果升 3%， 有50万贷款， 一年就多交15000

加息这事从去年就吵吵了，所有买房的人按说都应该有心里准备吧？自己啥情况贷出的款，自己起码清楚吧？如果都清楚，还慌什么？加到5%都应该没问题呀敢顶风作案的，自己应该早算出来最坏的情况下是否能扛得住啊？

 

[lindamy]

和上月美国加息后一样，股市不降反升，而且涨得不少。

 

[billwanhua]

加息这事从去年就吵吵了，所有买房的人按说都应该有心里准备吧？自己啥情况贷出的款，自己起码清楚吧？如果都清楚，还慌什么？加到5%都应该没问题呀敢顶风作案的，自己应该早算出来最坏的情况下是否能扛得住啊？

跟炒股和赌博一样，不仅买的人不理智，银行中介也不理智，哪个严格按照贷款测试压力5%计算的？2018-2019可能按照那个算，最近两年贷款都松很多。

 

[lili25777]

跟炒股和赌博一样，不仅买的人不理智，银行中介也不理智，哪个严格按照贷款测试压力5%计算的？2018-2019可能按照那个算，最近两年贷款都松很多。

明白了看看这次狼真的来了，有没有抛盘现象，比例多少。

 

[ert0000]

The Bank of Canada announced today that it has raised the overnight rate by .50% to 1.00%, to curb rising inflation due to "Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine which is causing unimaginable human suffering and new economic uncertainty. Price spikes in oil, natural gas and other commodities are adding to inflation around the world. Supply disruptions resulting from the war are also exacerbating ongoing supply constraints and weighing on activity. These factors are the primary drivers of a substantial upward revision to the Bank's outlook for inflation in Canada." Bank of Canada will attempt to stay clear of triggering stagflation which is quite possible if interest rates rise too quickly. Bank of Canada understands it needs to strike a balance between curbing inflation, sustaining Canada's economic growth and monitoring the pressure levied against indebted households. Canada's surging inflation rate moved to a 30-year high of 5.7% recently, driven by high gas prices, soaring housing and rising food prices and this is well above the Bank of Canada's target rate of 2% that it had hoped to maintain.

2% 的通胀是希望，能否实现，因素太多了，村民自己判断吧。

 

[billwanhua]

明白了看看这次狼真的来了，有没有抛盘现象，比例多少。

现在还不确定，历史上房市一般比股市跌得慢，美股最近跌了点，如果还有大跌，房市肯定会步入后尘，如果股市稳了，房市肯定不会有问题。

 

[ottawa_tj]

符合我的预感。今年再来两次！

今年还有6次加息的机会……会加几次呢？拭目以待吧。

 

[肥猫]

今年还有6次加息的机会……会加几次呢？拭目以待吧。

最多还有一次0.5, 余下的是0.25和不加。今年应该再加1-1.25%

 

[billwanhua]

最多还有一次0.5, 余下的是0.25和不加。今年应该再加1-1.25%

看美国，美国说要加6次，每次0.5,估计3%. 加拿大没得选，只能跟美国，要不然加元腰斩。