加央行今日宣布加息五十个基点+缩表

[GlobeCitizen]

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 50 basis points, begins quantitative tightening​

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

April 13, 2022



The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1%, with the Bank Rate at 1¼% and the deposit rate at 1%. The Bank is also ending reinvestment and will begin quantitative tightening (QT), effective April 25. Maturing Government of Canada bonds on the Bank’s balance sheet will no longer be replaced and, as a result, the size of the balance sheet will decline over time.
Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is causing unimaginable human suffering and new economic uncertainty. Price spikes in oil, natural gas and other commodities are adding to inflation around the world. Supply disruptions resulting from the war are also exacerbating ongoing supply constraints and weighing on activity. These factors are the primary drivers of a substantial upward revision to the Bank’s outlook for inflation in Canada.
The war in Ukraine is disrupting the global recovery, just as most economies are emerging from the impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. European countries are more directly impacted by confidence effects and supply dislocations caused by the war. China’s economy is facing new COVID outbreaks and an ongoing correction in its property market. In the United States, domestic demand remains very strong and the US Federal Reserve has clearly indicated its resolve to use its monetary policy tools to control inflation. As policy stimulus is withdrawn, US growth is expected to moderate to a pace more in line with potential growth. Global financial conditions have tightened and volatility has increased. The Bank now forecasts global growth of about 3½% this year, 2½% in 2023 and 3¼% in 2024.
In Canada, growth is strong and the economy is moving into excess demand. Labour markets are tight, and wage growth is back to its pre-pandemic pace and rising. Businesses increasingly report they are having difficulty meeting demand, and are able to pass on higher input costs by increasing prices. While the COVID-19 virus continues to mutate and circulate, high rates of vaccination have reduced its health and economic impacts. Growth looks to have been stronger in the first quarter than projected in January and is likely to pick up in the second quarter. Consumer spending is strengthening with the lifting of pandemic containment measures. Exports and business investment will continue to recover, supported by strong foreign demand and high commodity prices. Housing market activity, which has been exceptionally high, is expected to moderate.
The Bank forecasts that Canada’s economy will grow by 4¼% this year before slowing to 3¼% in 2023 and 2¼% in 2024. Robust business investment, labour productivity growth and higher immigration will add to the economy’s productive capacity, while higher interest rates should moderate growth in domestic demand.
CPI inflation in Canada is 5.7%, above the Bank’s forecast in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Inflation is being driven by rising energy and food prices and supply disruptions, in combination with strong global and domestic demand. Core measures of inflation have all moved higher as price pressures broaden. CPI inflation is now expected to average almost 6% in the first half of 2022 and remain well above the control range throughout this year. It is then expected to ease to about 2½% in the second half of 2023 and return to the 2% target in 2024. There is an increasing risk that expectations of elevated inflation could become entrenched. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.
With the economy moving into excess demand and inflation persisting well above target, the Governing Council judges that interest rates will need to rise further. The policy interest rate is the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument, and quantitative tightening will complement increases in the policy rate. The timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.

Information note​

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 1, 2022. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on July 13, 2022.
A market notice providing operational details for QT will be published this morning on the Bank’s web site.

Content Type(s): Press, Press releases

 

[eclipse]

牛

 

[ccc]

早就该加息了。

 

[GlobeCitizen]

新西兰昨天也加息50 basis points
，美国下个月也将加息50 basis points

New Zealand raises rates by most in 22 years on surging inflation​

Central bank says supply chain strains and Russian invasion of Ukraine will continue to push up prices

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New Zealand’s central bank raised interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday, its biggest increase in 22 years, following worries about surging inflation exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased its official interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.5 per cent, bringing forward a rise that it had flagged would be made this year. The decision was announced a day after the US reported that inflation hit 8.5 per cent in March, growing at its fastest pace in 40 years, as supply chains struggled to keep up with a post-pandemic surge in demand and the war in Ukraine boosted commodity prices. The RBNZ monetary policy committee met on February 23, the day before Russia invaded Ukraine, and raised rates by 25 basis points. It also forecast further tightening in 2022. But the committee said it had brought forward its decision in response to “rising inflation expectations”. The most recent inflation figure, from December 2021, was 5.9 per cent, up from 1.4 per cent a year earlier. The committee expects inflation to peak at 7 per cent in the first half of 2022. “The level of global economic activity continues to generate rising inflation pressures, exacerbated by ongoing supply disruptions in large part driven by Covid-19,” the monetary policy committee said. “The Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly added to these supply disruptions, causing prices to spike in internationally traded commodities and energy.” New Zealand began increasing rates by increments of 25 basis points in October last year, after holding the official cash rate at 0.25 per cent for 18 months. Wednesday’s rate rise coincided with New Zealand opening its borders to Australian tourists for the first time since a brief “travel bubble” operated between the countries in 2021 before new coronavirus outbreaks prompted Wellington to shut its borders again. Saul Eslake, an economist, said New Zealand’s rise “underscores the seriousness with which they view the near-term inflation outlook and their determination to rein it” and expected another 50 basis points rise next month. Recommended News in-depthGlobal inflation Inflation tracker: latest figures as countries grapple with rising prices Along with global inflationary pressures, Eslake said the RBNZ was responding to a tight employment market, a low target inflation rate and a mandate to consider house prices in monetary policy decisions. Richard Yetsenga, chief economist at ANZ, said the RBNZ was “playing catch-up” with unexpectedly rapid inflation and also forecast the bank would raise rates by the same amount next month. “New Zealand is showing a pattern of tending to get more aggressive as the cycle goes on,” he said. “One of the elements [of today’s announcement] seems to be a signal that by lifting 50 basis points now, hopefully that reduces the amount they need to hike over the cycle.” Australia, New Zealand’s second-biggest trading partner, has kept interest rates on hold at a record low of 0.1 per cent, but has signalled that it would raise rates within the next few months even though inflation is low by global standards, at 3.5 per cent. Eslake said he expected the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates in June, adding that the country had been partly insulated from price rises by weak wage growth and an economy that relies on domestic coal rather than imported gas and therefore was not subject to the energy price jumps observed in Europe.

 

[GlobeCitizen]

前哈佛大学教授，财政部长lawrence summers认为美国今后两年内进入衰退(hard landing)的概率大于50%，甚至高于70%.



Is the U.S. economy headed for recession? On this week’s Stephanomics,
@MyStephanomics
talks to
@LHSummers
, the Harvard professor and former Treasury secretary who argues that a U.S. recession is more likely than a soft landing Apple: https://trib.al/Cv8mY9m

 

[茶马盐铁]

前哈佛大学教授，财政部长lawrence summers认为美国今后两年内进入衰退(hard landing)的概率大于50%，甚至高于70%.



Is the U.S. economy headed for recession? On this week’s Stephanomics,
@MyStephanomics
talks to
@LHSummers
, the Harvard professor and former Treasury secretary who argues that a U.S. recession is more likely than a soft landing Apple: https://trib.al/Cv8mY9m

很有可能。

现在中国正在形成事实上的对美货物禁运。
没有中国的廉价商品，美国挺不过一年。 通胀将失控。