贵圈
政府都对党
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"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.
The phrase was popularized in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli.[1] However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Several other people have been listed as originators of the quote, and it is often attributed to Twain himself.[2]
哈哈昨天听到一个老家伙引用这段著名的调侃。
“谎言，该死的谎言，统计数据。”
bolster weak arguments 的时候，统计数据是如何地无限接近谎言。
真实世界，
modeling，
statistic，
有无数的办法可以被捏扁揉圆。
从实验设计，到目标选取，到数据收集，数据淘汰，到统计方法，到分析方法，乃至到呈现方式。
每一步都可以是谎言。
说你真你就真，不真也真。
说你假你就假，真也是假。
遇到富有争议的课题，证据较弱的课题，只要在其中一个环节，有微弱的倾向性，就足以改变结论。
看待权威，看待政府，看待“科学家”
必须记住这句名言。
The phrase was popularized in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli.[1] However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Several other people have been listed as originators of the quote, and it is often attributed to Twain himself.[2]
哈哈昨天听到一个老家伙引用这段著名的调侃。
“谎言，该死的谎言，统计数据。”
bolster weak arguments 的时候，统计数据是如何地无限接近谎言。
真实世界，
modeling，
statistic，
有无数的办法可以被捏扁揉圆。
从实验设计，到目标选取，到数据收集，数据淘汰，到统计方法，到分析方法，乃至到呈现方式。
每一步都可以是谎言。
说你真你就真，不真也真。
说你假你就假，真也是假。
遇到富有争议的课题，证据较弱的课题，只要在其中一个环节，有微弱的倾向性，就足以改变结论。
看待权威，看待政府，看待“科学家”
必须记住这句名言。
