In less than 8 hrs, the US Nov. CPI number will be released, and Fed will announce a rate decision, and its dot plots will give us the Fed's perspective of terminal interest rate this cycle on Wednesday. Did not have time to look at the market during trading hours. The chart tells something unusual:
Today's day chart:
Look like indexes had a nice rally in the last trading hours! Why? Is the market prescient favorable CPI? or They are aware of CPI numbers already( White House gets the number one day prior to release.)
JPMorgan issued their estimate this afternoon ( Caveat: Other researchers could have a completely opposite scenario):
CPI 7.8% ( 5% chance); SPX down 4%_5%;
CPI 7.5_7.7%( 25% chance); SPX down 2.5%_3.5%;
CPI 7.2_7.4% ( 50% chance); SPX up +2% _+3%;
CPI 7.0%_ 7.2% ( 15% chance); SPX up +4%_+5%;
CPI6.9% or lower ( 5% chance); SPX up +8%_+10%.
Consensus currently is YoY CPI 7.3%, core CPI 6,1%, MoM 0.3%, and core 0.3%. JPMorgan's estimate is 7.3%, 6.1%, 0.3%, and 0.36%
So that could be the reason for the market rally in the last trading hours.
But don't overlook the STF founder was arrested, a bombshell after the market closed, and The US Justice Department has been investigating crypto exchange Binance over money laundering violations today. Both could shake the market for time being.
We find it out in less than 48 hrs.
Today's day chart:
Look like indexes had a nice rally in the last trading hours! Why? Is the market prescient favorable CPI? or They are aware of CPI numbers already( White House gets the number one day prior to release.)
JPMorgan issued their estimate this afternoon ( Caveat: Other researchers could have a completely opposite scenario):
CPI 7.8% ( 5% chance); SPX down 4%_5%;
CPI 7.5_7.7%( 25% chance); SPX down 2.5%_3.5%;
CPI 7.2_7.4% ( 50% chance); SPX up +2% _+3%;
CPI 7.0%_ 7.2% ( 15% chance); SPX up +4%_+5%;
CPI6.9% or lower ( 5% chance); SPX up +8%_+10%.
Consensus currently is YoY CPI 7.3%, core CPI 6,1%, MoM 0.3%, and core 0.3%. JPMorgan's estimate is 7.3%, 6.1%, 0.3%, and 0.36%
So that could be the reason for the market rally in the last trading hours.
But don't overlook the STF founder was arrested, a bombshell after the market closed, and The US Justice Department has been investigating crypto exchange Binance over money laundering violations today. Both could shake the market for time being.
We find it out in less than 48 hrs.
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