利好CVVY.TO（PTOAF）：
随着加拿大液化天然气（LNG）产量的增加，加拿大西部天然气库存量在4-5个月内可能低于五年平均水平。AECO价格应在4-5个月内超过3美元。远期价格已经反映了这一点。但加拿大西部天然气库存的真正紧张局面将在明年春季到来，届时加拿大液化天然气（LNG）将在明年初达到满负荷状态。AECO价格应会大幅上涨，并在2026-2030年保持高位。
By
Charles Kennedy - Jun 18, 2025, 11:30 AM CDT
Canada could produce its first-ever liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export from the Pacific coast as early as this weekend, according to
industry sources familiar with project timelines cited by
Reuters.
LNG Canada, a massive $40-billion project in Kitimat, British Columbia, is completing cooldown operations on Train 1, which are scheduled from June 16 to 19.
If production begins as expected, it would mark a
milestone for Canada’s natural gas industry: the country’s first operational LNG export terminal and the only one on North America’s Pacific coast. Initial output is expected to begin at half-capacity, with the first cargo slated for mid-July aboard the
Gaslog Glasgow.
The project’s advantage lies in its economics and geography.
Shell CEO Wael Sawan recently cited Canada's AECO gas benchmark, currently around $0.71 per MMBtu, versus $3.75 at Henry Hub, as a cost advantage. Proximity to Asian markets adds to its appeal, with key destinations reachable in under two weeks.
Backed by Shell, Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi, and Kogas, LNG Canada will eventually ramp up to 14 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). That capacity is expected to redirect a portion of Canadian gas exports—currently flowing almost entirely to the U.S.—toward global markets.
This development comes amid
stalled U.S. LNG permitting and accelerating investment in Mexico, positioning Canada as a new Pacific LNG player.
While not yet confirmed, a weekend startup would mark the start of Canada’s long-delayed entry into global LNG—a move that could shift North American export patterns and bolster supply diversity for Asia.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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