BREAKING 期限又来了，如48小时内不达成协议美国将送伊朗下地狱

metropolis 说:
川宝的特点是不按规定出牌，只要需要，可能推迟，也可能提前。

现在双方，无论谁找到跳伞飞行员，都可能暂不公布，当成筹码，必要时打出来。
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如果伊朗先找到，打断手脚。说是百姓泄愤打的。推出来示众，能起震慑作用。

或者用他作诱饵，抓捕更多来救援的美军
 
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dreamland 说:
如果抓住，不会这样虐待俘虏了，而是攻心为上。宣传价值远远超过泄愤价值。
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美军当年特种部队索马里“维和”，死19人
索马里居民拖着美军尸体大街上游行。美国朝野震动。立马全面撤军。
这也是心里战的一种
有时候人家仗着拳头硬不跟你讲道理时，野蛮对野蛮更有效
 
最后编辑:
草头将军 说:
美军当年特种部队索马里“维和”，死19人,伤73人
索马里居民抬着美军尸体大街上游行。美国朝野震动。立马全面撤军。
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索马里和伊朗情况完全不同， 索马里是流寇土匪， 伊朗是中等强国。

明显中俄不愿为伊朗和美国死磕。 完全从军事说伊朗完全不是对手，你即使把俘虏碎尸万段，或摧毁GCC的水厂，海峡布雷，只能激起美国民众和世界各国对川普的支持，继而被川普找到动用大杀器（比如战术核弹的借口），非常愚蠢。现在这样的持久战，才是正道，数量不要多，只要保证每天都有导弹或无人机落到以色列或GCC国家，然后隔三岔五打下战机，直升机，选择性让船过海峡，这样才会让美国和以色列疯掉。
 
dreamland 说:
索马里和伊朗情况完全不同， 索马里是流寇土匪， 伊朗是中等强国。

明显中俄不愿为伊朗和美国死磕。 完全从军事说伊朗完全不是对手，你即使把俘虏碎尸万段，或摧毁GCC的水厂，海峡布雷，只能激起美国民众和世界各国对川普的支持，继而被川普找到动用大杀器（比如战术核弹的借口），非常愚蠢。现在这样的持久战，才是正道，数量不要多，只要保证每天都有导弹或无人机落到以色列或GCC国家，然后隔三岔五打下战机，直升机，选择性让船过海峡，这样才会让美国和以色列疯掉。
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呵呵，不会有持久战。现在美帝打击的效率非常高，要么不动手，动手就是斩首，只要持续封锁住伊朗，他们自己就会崩溃。
 
dreamland 说:
索马里和伊朗情况完全不同， 索马里是流寇土匪， 伊朗是中等强国。

明显中俄不愿为伊朗和美国死磕。 完全从军事说伊朗完全不是对手，你即使把俘虏碎尸万段，或摧毁GCC的水厂，海峡布雷，只能激起美国民众和世界各国对川普的支持，继而被川普找到动用大杀器（比如战术核弹的借口），非常愚蠢。现在这样的持久战，才是正道，数量不要多，只要保证每天都有导弹或无人机落到以色列或GCC国家，然后隔三岔五打下战机，直升机，选择性让船过海峡，这样才会让美国和以色列疯掉。
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伊朗快打成流寇了，或者是伊朗采用流寇战术
 
Check out the 1981 Algiers Accords and then think about the possible outcome of this war.

​

 
元首希特勒 (自杀) ；首相墨索里尼（枪决）；首相东条英机（绞刑），战争狂人最后的结局都不过如此！
 
THE NEXT 15 DAYS:

TOMORROW — April 6
→ Deadline expires. Iran rejected every deal. Denied all talks. "Locked, loaded, standing tall."
→ Trump already extended TWICE. No third extension coming.
DAYS 2-3 — April 7-8
→ US strikes Iran's power grid — 80,000,000 go dark
→ Targets expanded: power plants + oil wells + Kharg Island + desalination plants
→ Iran retaliates on Saudi Aramco, UAE refineries, Kuwait infrastructure→ Oil gaps past $160
DAYS 4-5 — April 9-10
→ Iran targets Ras Tanura — LARGEST oil terminal on Earth. One hit = 6,500,000 bpd OFFLINE.
→ Houthis close Red Sea — TWO chokepoints shut. No precedent in history.
→ Oil hits $200. Physical crude hits $250+ in Asia.
DAYS 6-8 — April 11-13
→ OIL CLIFF — strategic reserves EMPTY. Sanctions relief EXPIRES.
→ 10,000,000 barrels per day GONE. No replacement. No safety net.
→ Oil hits $250 — US officials ALREADY modeling this
→ Gas hits $10-12 nationally. Airlines grounding. Trucking parking.
→ Iran launches cyber attacks on US infrastructure
DAYS 9-12 — April 14-17
→ Global food crisis — 30% of fertilizer transits Hormuz. Prices spike worldwide.
→ Asian economies collapse — Japan, Korea, India losing 50%+ of energy supply
→ Global recession — Goldman at 30% probability. At $300 oil it's CERTAIN.
→ S&P correction becomes crash
DAYS 13-15 — April 18-20
→ ICC war crimes investigation — evidence is on camera
→ Iran nuclear breakout — 2-4 week timeline. ZERO incentive for restraint.
→ 80,000,000 people: no power, no water, no food chain, no bridges→ Refugee crisis dwarfing Syria begins
→ US midterm politics explode — $15 gas + war crimes investigation

Note: Trump is so eccentric, psychopathic, and unpredictable. I don't give much weight to these predictions, but the IEA called this war "the greatest global energy security challenge in HISTORY."
 
贾和平 说:
THE NEXT 15 DAYS:

TOMORROW — April 6
→ Deadline expires. Iran rejected every deal. Denied all talks. "Locked, loaded, standing tall."
→ Trump already extended TWICE. No third extension coming.
DAYS 2-3 — April 7-8
→ US strikes Iran's power grid — 80,000,000 go dark
→ Targets expanded: power plants + oil wells + Kharg Island + desalination plants
→ Iran retaliates on Saudi Aramco, UAE refineries, Kuwait infrastructure→ Oil gaps past $160
DAYS 4-5 — April 9-10
→ Iran targets Ras Tanura — LARGEST oil terminal on Earth. One hit = 6,500,000 bpd OFFLINE.
→ Houthis close Red Sea — TWO chokepoints shut. No precedent in history.
→ Oil hits $200. Physical crude hits $250+ in Asia.
DAYS 6-8 — April 11-13
→ OIL CLIFF — strategic reserves EMPTY. Sanctions relief EXPIRES.
→ 10,000,000 barrels per day GONE. No replacement. No safety net.
→ Oil hits $250 — US officials ALREADY modeling this
→ Gas hits $10-12 nationally. Airlines grounding. Trucking parking.
→ Iran launches cyber attacks on US infrastructure
DAYS 9-12 — April 14-17
→ Global food crisis — 30% of fertilizer transits Hormuz. Prices spike worldwide.
→ Asian economies collapse — Japan, Korea, India losing 50%+ of energy supply
→ Global recession — Goldman at 30% probability. At $300 oil it's CERTAIN.
→ S&P correction becomes crash
DAYS 13-15 — April 18-20
→ ICC war crimes investigation — evidence is on camera
→ Iran nuclear breakout — 2-4 week timeline. ZERO incentive for restraint.
→ 80,000,000 people: no power, no water, no food chain, no bridges→ Refugee crisis dwarfing Syria begins
→ US midterm politics explode — $15 gas + war crimes investigation

Note: Trump is so eccentric, psychopathic, and unpredictable. I don't give much weight to these predictions, but the IEA called this war "the greatest global energy security challenge in HISTORY."
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i will add one:
Under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, a U.S. President can initiate military action without Congress, but must terminate forces within 60–90 days unless Congress declares war, authorizes the action, or extends the deadline.
The initial authorization allows forces to operate for 60 days, with a mandatory 30-day withdrawal period if Congress does not approve continuation, notes.

Therefore, in two weeks, either Trump will exit the war or seek Congress approval
 
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