请教：如果一个国家的经济泡沫破灭，会有何影响？

[J.C]

最初由 msft 发布
Another thing about Japan, their people have been used to life-long employment. It's not unusual to see many people only work for one company before retirement. This, along with the structural problem in their financial system, made them less competitive.

You can see what Japan's government has been doing to pull its economy out of the long long recession for the past decade - reforming financial system and changing the old and "happy" way of employment. Now, layoff is not a rare thing in Japan, although not comparable to that of US. But still, they are changing. Thanks to their solid welfare system, people don't feel a lot of pain during the transition.

By the way, Japan's central bank is proven to be one of the most effecient central banks to control its currency. Remember, in Japan, it's a free market for foreign exchange. Now, Japan seems to be grdually getting out of the mud.

My question is, when the real estate price fell sharply in Japan, were there many people from outside Japan invest in the RE market since the price was good?

 

[一把手]

最初由 J.C 发布


My question is, when the real estate price fell sharply in Japan, were there many people from outside Japan invest in the RE market since the price was good?

The Nikkei stock market index fell from a high of 40,000 at the end of 1989 to around 11,000 now. It rose in the mid-1990s. But it fell below 12,000 by March 2001. Real estate prices plummeted by 80 percent from 1991 to 1998. Foreign investors were all scared away. Nobody knows when the recovery really starts. Take a look at the Nikkei index chart, you will know why the bubble burst hurts, even in such a wealthy country with very good welfare system.

 

[J.C]

假设甲在银行里有10000元存款，在政府部门工作，月收入100元，没有房子，每个月花30元租房子住；乙没有存款，但是有一栋价值10000元的房子，在一家外企干，月收入为100元．
如果发生了日本发生过的经济大滑坡，甲，乙分别会面临什么样的问题？分别会面临什么样的机遇？
我个人认为房价贬值了，是不是就是通货紧缩，那么乙可能可以用他的10000存款买两栋和甲一样的房子，所以这种事情的发生，对乙是有好处的，而对于甲来说，就吃亏了，对么？

 

[James]

最初由 ray902 发布

班

一字师。

 

[光辉岁月]

世上的事情往往都是一个道理：盛极则衰，强极则辱。美加这种资本主义国家几年一次的经济萧条就是一个明证。中国现在的发展势头是令人惊讶，但是，客观想一下，真的能“永远”吗？一旦衰退，我们(政府和人民)有准备吗？中国庞大的人口包袱能容忍这种衰退吗？个人认为，中国如果从现在起完善社会保障制度，也许还来得及，但是需要至少十年的高速发展来保障我们完成这个目标。否则，中国的经济衰退很可能引起大的动荡和骚乱。

 

[挺傻]

最初由 J.C 发布
假设甲在银行里有10000元存款，在政府部门工作，月收入100元，没有房子，每个月花30元租房子住；乙没有存款，但是有一栋价值10000元的房子，在一家外企干，月收入为100元．
如果发生了日本发生过的经济大滑坡，甲，乙分别会面临什么样的问题？分别会面临什么样的机遇？
我个人认为房价贬值了，是不是就是通货紧缩，那么乙可能可以用他的10000存款买两栋和甲一样的房子，所以这种事情的发生，对乙是有好处的，而对于甲来说，就吃亏了，对么？

Housing is not in the catalogue of "consumption". As an investment of residual construction, it will be influenced by " popolation between 25-45 (demand)", "interest rate", "unsold inventory, vacancy rate" and " subsidy" factors.So it can not be judged in a simple way.

In your case, I can't find enough data to make the judgement, such as purchasing price of B's horse (time value of money), how long of A's deposit(principal, interest rate, term),current interest rate, ect.

Anyway, it's not so easily to cut off half price of housing.
If you like, you could get some clues from "housing disaster" in Hongkong and housing price changes in Canada (U.S.A) during this depression.

 

[挺傻]

最初由 光辉岁月 发布
世上的事情往往都是一个道理：盛极则衰，强极则辱。美加这种资本主义国家几年一次的经济萧条就是一个明证。中国现在的发展势头是令人惊讶，但是，客观想一下，真的能“永远”吗？一旦衰退，我们(政府和人民)有准备吗？中国庞大的人口包袱能容忍这种衰退吗？个人认为，中国如果从现在起完善社会保障制度，也许还来得及，但是需要至少十年的高速发展来保障我们完成这个目标。否则，中国的经济衰退很可能引起大的动荡和骚乱。

经济周期是自然规律，任何国家都不可能逃脱自然规律。
但衰退和萧条的程度却可以通过更好的宏观调控来缓和。

不要说中国真的开始衰退，就是不能稳定在8%左右的GDP增长，恐怕就已经失去足够支撑力了。（中国DNP增长计算包括大中城市，没包括农村）

 

[J.C]

最初由 挺傻 发布


Housing is not in the catalogue of "consumption". As an investment of residual construction, it will be influenced by " popolation between 25-45 (demand)", "interest rate", "unsold inventory, vacancy rate" and " subsidy" factors.So it can not be judged in a simple way.

In your case, I can't find enough data to make the judgement, such as purchasing price of B's horse (time value of money), how long of A's deposit(principal, interest rate, term),current interest rate, ect.

Anyway, it's not so easily to cut off half price of housing.
If you like, you could get some clues from "housing disaster" in Hongkong and housing price changes in Canada (U.S.A) during this depression.

我明白了，这不是简单的几句话就可以解释明白的，谢谢你的指点，我会去图书馆借些书看先．

 

[colonel]

is it 1600?
五年前就1600.
recession will come soon.