《纽约时报》5月2日专栏文章；让全世界为中国祈祷
“天父上帝啊，赐于中国领导人HJT主席健康，希望他在银行系统的结构调整、巨额不良债券和腐败给全世界带来不良影响之前解除它们，而且过热的中国经济在景气停滞之前得以控制。保佑中国领导人都能活到120岁，他们在世时中国继续保持每年9%的经济增长率，阿门。”
《纽约时报》的专栏作家托马斯・弗雷德曼2日在专栏中发表了美国、欧盟（EU）、日本和亚洲主要国家领导人在睡前要咏颂的、旨在希望中国安定的祈祷文。他表示，现在中国的安定是我们的事，全世界的安定握在中国领导人手上。
他说：“世界逐渐被中国借助廉价劳动力、原材料需求以及外资投资而确保的巨大的资本力量套牢了，一旦中国泡沫破裂，世界上的所有泡沫就会一齐爆裂。”
他还分析称，但考虑到中国决策体制还不透明的问题，中国领导人将在促使世界经济均衡的自身义务和为维持权力而要每年必须创造数百万个就业机会之间怎样权衡，这一点还很难预测。
托马斯.弗雷德曼专栏全文如下：
Let Us Pray By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Published: May 2, 2004
TOKYO
Here''s what I learned in Tokyo: If you''re the leader of Japan, America, Australia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Russia, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines or the European Union and you''re not going to bed each night saying the following prayer for China, then you''re not paying attention:
"Dear Heavenly Father, please keep the leader of China, President Hu Jintao, healthy and on an even keel. Please see to it that he moves steadily and carefully toward restructuring the Chinese banking system and ridding it of its huge overhang of bad loans and corruption, before there is a real meltdown that would be felt around the world. Give him the wisdom to cool the overheated Chinese economy without creating a recession that would prompt China to stop importing like crazy and start just exporting like crazy. And Father, forgive us for all the bad words we used in recent years to describe China''s leaders terms like `Butchers of Beijing.'' We did not mean it. We meant to say `Bankers of Beijing,'' because their economy is now fueling growth all over Asia, bolstering Japan and sucking up imports from everywhere. May China''s leaders live to 120, and may they enjoy 9 percent G.D.P. growth every year of their lives. Thank you, Father. Amen."
The most striking thing about being in Asia today is hearing how much more important China''s growth engine has become for companies all across the region and well beyond it. When Chinese authorities told banks last week to cut back their wild lending, commodity prices and stock markets tumbled all over the world. News that China is having regular blackouts because it can''t buy enough crude oil is helping push up gasoline prices the world over.
While three years ago the Bush team came to office growling about no longer coddling China the way those "wimpy" Clintonites did that talk has disappeared from the Bush vocabulary. It''s not just business as usual now. It''s business only.
To some degree the world is getting hooked on China its cheap labor, its voracious appetite for commodities and capital (over $50 billion in foreign direct investment last year) and its emerging middle class. The more hooked we become, the less the world can tolerate any sort of prolonged instability there. If the China bubble bursts, it will be the mother of all burst bubbles. Which is why we need to pray that China''s leaders will have the skill to cool things down, just enough but not too much, without some wheels falling off.
"A lot of the world''s stability or instability is resting on the leadership in Beijing there is no question about that," argues Richard Koo, chief economist for Nomura Research Institute. But, he insists, "Chinese leaders understand what world they are living in. They have a general equilibrium view of the world that what they do affects us all and then comes back to affect them."
That seems true. But one of the ways that China has grown so rapidly in the last decade has been by decentralizing authority to regions and letting governors or mayors attract whatever investment they can. It is not clear anymore how much the center can slow things down.
And considering the huge amounts of foreign investment that have flowed into China in such a short time, "it''s very hard to think that they could have invested that much money efficiently," remarked Robert Feldman, managing director in Tokyo for Morgan Stanley. "So the senior leadership is scared, because if they have a hard landing from bad loans you have a regime problem. [But] when they tried to slow the economy, they got real push back from the regions, who said, `You in Beijing have all that infrastructure. Why shouldn''t we have a new bridge or road?'' "
Given how opaque China''s decision-making is, it''s hard to predict how Chinese leaders will balance their obligation to behave in a way that promotes global equilibrium with their need to create millions of jobs each year in order to stay in power.
One can only say three things: 1. They''ve done a pretty good job so far. 2. The job gets harder every day. 3. No one will be immune to the fallout. The relationship of the world to China right now reminds me of that old banker''s rule: If a client owes you $1,000, that''s his problem. If a client owes you $1 million, that''s your problem. China''s stability is our problem.
Heavenly Father . . .
“天父上帝啊，赐于中国领导人HJT主席健康，希望他在银行系统的结构调整、巨额不良债券和腐败给全世界带来不良影响之前解除它们，而且过热的中国经济在景气停滞之前得以控制。保佑中国领导人都能活到120岁，他们在世时中国继续保持每年9%的经济增长率，阿门。”
《纽约时报》的专栏作家托马斯・弗雷德曼2日在专栏中发表了美国、欧盟（EU）、日本和亚洲主要国家领导人在睡前要咏颂的、旨在希望中国安定的祈祷文。他表示，现在中国的安定是我们的事，全世界的安定握在中国领导人手上。
他说：“世界逐渐被中国借助廉价劳动力、原材料需求以及外资投资而确保的巨大的资本力量套牢了，一旦中国泡沫破裂，世界上的所有泡沫就会一齐爆裂。”
他还分析称，但考虑到中国决策体制还不透明的问题，中国领导人将在促使世界经济均衡的自身义务和为维持权力而要每年必须创造数百万个就业机会之间怎样权衡，这一点还很难预测。
托马斯.弗雷德曼专栏全文如下：
Let Us Pray By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Published: May 2, 2004
TOKYO
Here''s what I learned in Tokyo: If you''re the leader of Japan, America, Australia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Russia, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines or the European Union and you''re not going to bed each night saying the following prayer for China, then you''re not paying attention:
"Dear Heavenly Father, please keep the leader of China, President Hu Jintao, healthy and on an even keel. Please see to it that he moves steadily and carefully toward restructuring the Chinese banking system and ridding it of its huge overhang of bad loans and corruption, before there is a real meltdown that would be felt around the world. Give him the wisdom to cool the overheated Chinese economy without creating a recession that would prompt China to stop importing like crazy and start just exporting like crazy. And Father, forgive us for all the bad words we used in recent years to describe China''s leaders terms like `Butchers of Beijing.'' We did not mean it. We meant to say `Bankers of Beijing,'' because their economy is now fueling growth all over Asia, bolstering Japan and sucking up imports from everywhere. May China''s leaders live to 120, and may they enjoy 9 percent G.D.P. growth every year of their lives. Thank you, Father. Amen."
The most striking thing about being in Asia today is hearing how much more important China''s growth engine has become for companies all across the region and well beyond it. When Chinese authorities told banks last week to cut back their wild lending, commodity prices and stock markets tumbled all over the world. News that China is having regular blackouts because it can''t buy enough crude oil is helping push up gasoline prices the world over.
While three years ago the Bush team came to office growling about no longer coddling China the way those "wimpy" Clintonites did that talk has disappeared from the Bush vocabulary. It''s not just business as usual now. It''s business only.
To some degree the world is getting hooked on China its cheap labor, its voracious appetite for commodities and capital (over $50 billion in foreign direct investment last year) and its emerging middle class. The more hooked we become, the less the world can tolerate any sort of prolonged instability there. If the China bubble bursts, it will be the mother of all burst bubbles. Which is why we need to pray that China''s leaders will have the skill to cool things down, just enough but not too much, without some wheels falling off.
"A lot of the world''s stability or instability is resting on the leadership in Beijing there is no question about that," argues Richard Koo, chief economist for Nomura Research Institute. But, he insists, "Chinese leaders understand what world they are living in. They have a general equilibrium view of the world that what they do affects us all and then comes back to affect them."
That seems true. But one of the ways that China has grown so rapidly in the last decade has been by decentralizing authority to regions and letting governors or mayors attract whatever investment they can. It is not clear anymore how much the center can slow things down.
And considering the huge amounts of foreign investment that have flowed into China in such a short time, "it''s very hard to think that they could have invested that much money efficiently," remarked Robert Feldman, managing director in Tokyo for Morgan Stanley. "So the senior leadership is scared, because if they have a hard landing from bad loans you have a regime problem. [But] when they tried to slow the economy, they got real push back from the regions, who said, `You in Beijing have all that infrastructure. Why shouldn''t we have a new bridge or road?'' "
Given how opaque China''s decision-making is, it''s hard to predict how Chinese leaders will balance their obligation to behave in a way that promotes global equilibrium with their need to create millions of jobs each year in order to stay in power.
One can only say three things: 1. They''ve done a pretty good job so far. 2. The job gets harder every day. 3. No one will be immune to the fallout. The relationship of the world to China right now reminds me of that old banker''s rule: If a client owes you $1,000, that''s his problem. If a client owes you $1 million, that''s your problem. China''s stability is our problem.
Heavenly Father . . .
