房价好像已经开始降了
- 主题发起人 Wanchen
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新手上路
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- 2002-01-19
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Yes, the price is getting down.
1, more 2nd hand house getting to market
2, empolyee is Ottawa is flat. No Federal office hiring (in hiring freeze), city office is down sizing. Hi-Tect is flat, might down.
3, more new house in market
4, building permit is getting down
5, interest rate is up
Price of both old and new houses are down now, especial getting to winter time.
1, more 2nd hand house getting to market
2, empolyee is Ottawa is flat. No Federal office hiring (in hiring freeze), city office is down sizing. Hi-Tect is flat, might down.
3, more new house in market
4, building permit is getting down
5, interest rate is up
Price of both old and new houses are down now, especial getting to winter time.
I kept a list of minto's forslae price.
Here is the list for July, http://www.minto.com/ottawa/newhomes/dynamic/client/homes_sale/masterdetail.asp
You can keep track of the price.
Here is the list for July, http://www.minto.com/ottawa/newhomes/dynamic/client/homes_sale/masterdetail.asp
You can keep track of the price.
house resale price declined in June
Local housing starts, resales both higher at mid-point of year.
July 9, 2004 - New home construction in Ottawa declined in June, while the resale market enjoyed another month of robust activity, according to separate reports Friday.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported that construction began on 593 new housing units in June. That was down 13 per cent from the 681 starts recorded in June of 2003 and a by 7.3 per cent from 640 starts in May.
Driving the decline was fewer starts in the more affordable end of the market―multiple-type units such as condos and rowhousing.
The number of multiple starts in June, 242, was a drop of 33 per cent from a year ago and of 4.3 per cent from May.
Contrary to the typical trend for a market that is beginning to soften, starts of costlier single-family homes were up for the second month in a row in June. Singles starts totalled 351, up by 10 per cent from a year ago. However, that was a decline from May's 387.
"An anticipated future rise in mortgage rates is likely convincing many consumers to jump into the new home market now instead of later," Christian Douchant, CMHC's senior market analyst for Ottawa, said in the report.
Despite the overall decline in starts in June, Mr. Douchant emphasized that the number of starts on the year to date represent an increase of eight per cent from the same period a year ago.
Construction has begun on 3,144 new housing units so far this year, compared with 2,918 in the same period a year ago.
CMHC expects 6,200 starts in total for this year. In 2003, the total was 6,381, an 18-per-cent drop from the record 7,796 starts recorded in 2002.
Single-family starts in the first half of this year were up by four per cent, to 1,391, while multiple starts were up by 11 per cent, to 1,753.
Earlier this week, the latest building permit data from Statistics Canada suggested the level of construction activity seen in the first half of the year isn't likely to last.
The value of residential building permits taken out in May by area builders dropped by 16.6 per cent from April, to $81.7 million. Declines were seen in both the multiples and singles segments.
In the January-to-May period, $451.2 million worth of residential building permits have been issued in Ottawa, up by 5.7 per cent from the first five months of 2003. Driving that increase has been the cheaper end of the market, with multiples up by 21.5 per cent to $208.69 million. A more balanced market has eroded demand for costlier single-family homes and singles permits are down by five per cent on the year to date, to $242.5 million.
RESALE MARKET ROBUST IN JUNE
In a separate report Friday, the Ottawa Real Estate Board reported that activity remained brisk at the other end of the housing market―resales.
According to OREB, 1,433 residential units sold in Ottawa last month through the Multiple Listing Service used by most realtors.
That total was an increase of 9.3 per cent from June 2003. However, it was a decline of 12.7 per cent from a record-setting May.
Resales for the first half of the year totalled 7,494, up 10.5 per cent from the 6,781 sales recorded in the first half of 2003.
"With the first half of our year completed, our numbers are strong," OREB president Glenda Brindle said in the report. "A strong and balanced market is what we are experiencing."
The average selling price of the properties sold in June was $240,594, a slight decline from $242,166 in May.
Local housing starts, resales both higher at mid-point of year.
July 9, 2004 - New home construction in Ottawa declined in June, while the resale market enjoyed another month of robust activity, according to separate reports Friday.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported that construction began on 593 new housing units in June. That was down 13 per cent from the 681 starts recorded in June of 2003 and a by 7.3 per cent from 640 starts in May.
Driving the decline was fewer starts in the more affordable end of the market―multiple-type units such as condos and rowhousing.
The number of multiple starts in June, 242, was a drop of 33 per cent from a year ago and of 4.3 per cent from May.
Contrary to the typical trend for a market that is beginning to soften, starts of costlier single-family homes were up for the second month in a row in June. Singles starts totalled 351, up by 10 per cent from a year ago. However, that was a decline from May's 387.
"An anticipated future rise in mortgage rates is likely convincing many consumers to jump into the new home market now instead of later," Christian Douchant, CMHC's senior market analyst for Ottawa, said in the report.
Despite the overall decline in starts in June, Mr. Douchant emphasized that the number of starts on the year to date represent an increase of eight per cent from the same period a year ago.
Construction has begun on 3,144 new housing units so far this year, compared with 2,918 in the same period a year ago.
CMHC expects 6,200 starts in total for this year. In 2003, the total was 6,381, an 18-per-cent drop from the record 7,796 starts recorded in 2002.
Single-family starts in the first half of this year were up by four per cent, to 1,391, while multiple starts were up by 11 per cent, to 1,753.
Earlier this week, the latest building permit data from Statistics Canada suggested the level of construction activity seen in the first half of the year isn't likely to last.
The value of residential building permits taken out in May by area builders dropped by 16.6 per cent from April, to $81.7 million. Declines were seen in both the multiples and singles segments.
In the January-to-May period, $451.2 million worth of residential building permits have been issued in Ottawa, up by 5.7 per cent from the first five months of 2003. Driving that increase has been the cheaper end of the market, with multiples up by 21.5 per cent to $208.69 million. A more balanced market has eroded demand for costlier single-family homes and singles permits are down by five per cent on the year to date, to $242.5 million.
RESALE MARKET ROBUST IN JUNE
In a separate report Friday, the Ottawa Real Estate Board reported that activity remained brisk at the other end of the housing market―resales.
According to OREB, 1,433 residential units sold in Ottawa last month through the Multiple Listing Service used by most realtors.
That total was an increase of 9.3 per cent from June 2003. However, it was a decline of 12.7 per cent from a record-setting May.
Resales for the first half of the year totalled 7,494, up 10.5 per cent from the 6,781 sales recorded in the first half of 2003.
"With the first half of our year completed, our numbers are strong," OREB president Glenda Brindle said in the report. "A strong and balanced market is what we are experiencing."
The average selling price of the properties sold in June was $240,594, a slight decline from $242,166 in May.
I talked this topic in the same time last year. I believed the price of new house should decline. I had been waiting for the price of new house down for two years. It didn't happen. So, finally I have to buy my house at the end of last year. Now the price has increased more than 10%, from $275,000 to $305,000 after 7 months.
The market is too complex to be understood!
The market is too complex to be understood!
为什么房价该降时，不降？？
我虽然已经买了房子，但仍然关心房子的市场。买房子之前，我也观察了很长时间房价。那么，为什么该降时，它不降呢？
首先，我们一般是线性地看问题。哪个因素一变就说房价应当跌。这是不符合市场规律的。另外，我们往往只看一个因素不看其它，也是造成错误判断的原因之一。
要看到，我们在市场上的对手是房地产商。他们也在应对市场。当市场出现不利因素时，他们会千方百计顶住，或者采取一些措施。
另外，也要看到，有些因素不一定会产生降价的效果。只是我们一厢情愿而已。例如，建筑工人的失业率在持续上升。能说明什么？说明新房子造的少了。当市场上某种东西少了，就一定就会降价吗？这是房地产商在根据市场进行调整。利率升高，房价就会降吗？未必。一旦利率升高，就会在很长一段时间内持续升高。所以人们可能会抓紧时间早买，如果这时房源不足，房价反而升高也不一定。
我的结论是，一般的市场波动都会被房地产商的滤波器滤掉，所以，我们很难看到随着市场变化的房价下跌。除非，市场波动的波高超过了房地产商的能量，也就是市场崩溃的情况，房价会出现大跌。而这时，往往政府又会出面干预。这就是我们现在的房地产市场的现实。
我虽然已经买了房子，但仍然关心房子的市场。买房子之前，我也观察了很长时间房价。那么，为什么该降时，它不降呢？
首先，我们一般是线性地看问题。哪个因素一变就说房价应当跌。这是不符合市场规律的。另外，我们往往只看一个因素不看其它，也是造成错误判断的原因之一。
要看到，我们在市场上的对手是房地产商。他们也在应对市场。当市场出现不利因素时，他们会千方百计顶住，或者采取一些措施。
另外，也要看到，有些因素不一定会产生降价的效果。只是我们一厢情愿而已。例如，建筑工人的失业率在持续上升。能说明什么？说明新房子造的少了。当市场上某种东西少了，就一定就会降价吗？这是房地产商在根据市场进行调整。利率升高，房价就会降吗？未必。一旦利率升高，就会在很长一段时间内持续升高。所以人们可能会抓紧时间早买，如果这时房源不足，房价反而升高也不一定。
我的结论是，一般的市场波动都会被房地产商的滤波器滤掉，所以，我们很难看到随着市场变化的房价下跌。除非，市场波动的波高超过了房地产商的能量，也就是市场崩溃的情况，房价会出现大跌。而这时，往往政府又会出面干预。这就是我们现在的房地产市场的现实。
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