精华 Is it time to lock a gas protection plan?

[oread]

Crude oil is now over $51/barrel le.

 

[oread]

Current forecast is said to raise gas price to 35 ¢/M3 by March-2005.

 

[oread]

Forecasts suggest that natural gas prices will track higher than the historical average.

Lower production from new gas wells and depletion of older wells.
Natural gas is no longer in surplus. A bubble of oversupply depressed prices for 10 years. The gas market now sees the same shortages that have governed the oil market for a 25 years.
The long term price trend is up due to market fundamentals, and gas traders will need a good reason to reverse this trend.
Economic outlook is improving and this will increase energy consumption.

Sept 2004 - Energy Pulse in depth article on supply, demand and pricing.
Summary "Natural gas is somewhere between a limit to growth and a disaster waiting to happen right now, and no one is doing anything about it. Only a few months of inclement weather will cause severe shortages and rocketing price spikes. There is a high risk of major availability declines with unimaginable economic impact, and there is no supply side solution. "

http://www.energyshop.com/es/homes/gas/gaspriceforecast.cfm

 

[oread]

May 2004."North America faces a gas squeeze over the next four years, or longer"
The combination of a dry winter that could start to cut into hydroelectric power generation is sending jitters through the ranks of traders. Gas supplies will remain tight until at least 2008 when the first significant wave of liquefied natural gas imports is expected, as well as the sharp rise in finding and development costs. Those prices explain why EnCana Chief Executive Officer Gwyn Morgan emphatically believes that North America faces a gas squeeze over the next four years or longer.

http://www.energyshop.com/es/homes/gas/gaspriceforecast.cfm

 

[oread]

It was 27.9 ¢/M3 just last week.

 

[oread]

I wasn't sure how reliable that company is, couldn't find a lot of info online.

 

[oread]

Only 2/3 of gas price is de-regulated, i.e. the gas supply charge. Delivery charge and transportatino charge account for another 1/3 of the total gas price, this portion is still under Ontario Energy Board's regulations.

So when a commercial gas supplier is saying "10% saving", it's actually 10% on the 2/3 of the total price. In other words, if your normal consumption of gas is $1200 per year, then you'll only save roughly $80 per year.

 

[逆水行舟]

这个Variable Rate是啥意思

 

[oread]

就是gas supply rate的50%是市场价格，每季度调整一次。剩下的50%是fixed的。

 

[逆水行舟]

:thanks:
50% variable and 50% 5 year fixed, sounds a good combination? :blink:

 

[March]

拿拿们快讨论出一个方案，然后俺就 follow。

 

[649]

加拿大穷人多，GAS要猛涨是不可能的。不少人以前LOCK了都后悔了。

 

[楚风]

最初由 649 发布
加拿大穷人多，GAS要猛涨是不可能的。不少人以前LOCK了都后悔了。

That is my bet too. Several years ago many salemen tried to convince me to a locked rate with the same reasoning that the gas rate is going to be dramatically higher. It appears that the dramatic rise has not happened so far.

Heare is my numbers for the last three years:

2001-2002 Monthly avearge $105.54
2002-2003 $111.06
2003-2004 $127.99

for heating (22 C from 8:30 am-5:00 am, and 23 C from 5:00 am-8:30 am) my house of 2600 s.f. in addition to the gas-water tank.

 

[民工]

Winter's coming: Time to lock in your gas rate?
http://www.workopolis.com/servlet/Content/fasttrack/20041009/STMAINGAS09?section=Energy

The writer is doing opposite prediction: Gas price is going down, not sure which one we should trust.

 

[oread]

crude topped $54 USD per barrel today, just something to consider.