国家邮报,权威报导 - 房价会跌(看涨的在另一贴)
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by triton (Triton) at 2005.10.7 12:00
＜本文发表于: 相约加拿大:枫下论坛 www.rolia.net/forum ＞
LAWRENCE SMITH:
PROFESSOR EMERITUS OF REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS, UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO
Lawrence Smith, professor emeritus specializing in real estate economics at the University of Toronto, has been a student of the Canadian housing market since the 1970s, witnessing the late-1980s and early-1990s swoons. He says the market proceeds in predictable fashion and that this boom will end the same way -- with prices falling.
Q. How would you characterize today's housing market?
[ 相约加拿大:枫下论坛 www.rolia.net/forum ]
A. We're in a position where as long as everything stays very well behaved, the market will stay behaved as well. Meaning if interest rates don't go up significantly, if unemployment doesn't go up significantly and we get a gradual slowing down of new construction, then things might move along on a relatively even keel -- things may stay stable in nominal terms, although they'll fall in real [inflation-adjusted] terms. However, what are the chances those things are going to happen? There's just so many risks in the market place and the safety valve is gone.
Q. What warning signs do you look at?
A. Home ownership rates have gone up to an historic high. [Mr. Smith estimates it's at around 70%; latest census data put it at 65.8% in 2001]. The pool then of potential homeowners is diminishing. That's consistent with age declining of first-time buyers. That's really not like we had 10 years ago, going into this period -- a backlog of unsatisfied demand.
At the same time, we've gone to higher loan-to-value ratio mortgages and we've done all this at a low-interest-rate environment. We've pulled every demand lever there is in the last number of years. So now when those demand levers get reversed, we're in danger of getting a significant reduction in demand, which can lead to a contraction in price."
＜ r o l i a. n e t ＞
Q. Is this cycle any different than other cycles?
A. No. It's sort of like the law of gravity: You can't suspend it.
Q. Economists say that even though Canadian housing markets may cool, they don't expect a crash like the early 1990s because interest rates are so low and there is nothing on the horizon that would cause the market to drop dramatically.
A. There never is. But the crash of the housing market in the 1990s was foreseeable. Jim Pesando and I at U of T both gave papers in the late 80s at an Ontario government conference and nobody came to our sessions. We both said the housing market was going to go down. There was overbuilding just as today. The base on the rates was higher but the conditions weren't all that different. Everybody thought we were wrong because [the market] kept going up for another couple of years. Then it hit. And so I can't tell you when but it's going to correct because it's not sustainable.
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Q. Will it crash or will it just ease off?
A. That nobody can say. What you can say with some confidence is that it is highly unlikely over the next couple of years real house prices will go up and they will probably be much lower. Interest rates rise and there is a significant portion of the condo market that is being purchased by investors. In a rising interest-rate environment, when their mortgages come up for renewal, they're faced with the difficulty of being able to carry, especially since rents are stable or falling.
We just have to look at Toronto and what happened from 1989 through to about 1995.
Q. Do you see that happening again?
＜ 相约加拿大 ROLIA.NET ＞
A. It depends. I can give you all kinds of scenarios that would bring that about and all kinds that wouldn't. Is it likely there will be a crash? I don't think so. Is it likely [prices] will decline somewhat? I think so. Is it likely they will fall in real terms? Yes, very, very likely. If prices fall in nominal terms, how much will it be? It really depends on how much overbuilding we get, how long that overbuilding persists -- and I think we're already overbuilding -- and what the monetary response will be. Interest rates may go up, but not very much because I see weaknesses in the U.S. economy and the dollar being strong and energy prices going up. It may postpone the adjustment or the correction. The problem is the more you postpone it, the bigger the adjustment will be.
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by triton (Triton) at 2005.10.7 12:00
＜本文发表于: 相约加拿大:枫下论坛 www.rolia.net/forum ＞
LAWRENCE SMITH:
PROFESSOR EMERITUS OF REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS, UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO
Lawrence Smith, professor emeritus specializing in real estate economics at the University of Toronto, has been a student of the Canadian housing market since the 1970s, witnessing the late-1980s and early-1990s swoons. He says the market proceeds in predictable fashion and that this boom will end the same way -- with prices falling.
Q. How would you characterize today's housing market?
[ 相约加拿大:枫下论坛 www.rolia.net/forum ]
A. We're in a position where as long as everything stays very well behaved, the market will stay behaved as well. Meaning if interest rates don't go up significantly, if unemployment doesn't go up significantly and we get a gradual slowing down of new construction, then things might move along on a relatively even keel -- things may stay stable in nominal terms, although they'll fall in real [inflation-adjusted] terms. However, what are the chances those things are going to happen? There's just so many risks in the market place and the safety valve is gone.
Q. What warning signs do you look at?
A. Home ownership rates have gone up to an historic high. [Mr. Smith estimates it's at around 70%; latest census data put it at 65.8% in 2001]. The pool then of potential homeowners is diminishing. That's consistent with age declining of first-time buyers. That's really not like we had 10 years ago, going into this period -- a backlog of unsatisfied demand.
At the same time, we've gone to higher loan-to-value ratio mortgages and we've done all this at a low-interest-rate environment. We've pulled every demand lever there is in the last number of years. So now when those demand levers get reversed, we're in danger of getting a significant reduction in demand, which can lead to a contraction in price."
＜ r o l i a. n e t ＞
Q. Is this cycle any different than other cycles?
A. No. It's sort of like the law of gravity: You can't suspend it.
Q. Economists say that even though Canadian housing markets may cool, they don't expect a crash like the early 1990s because interest rates are so low and there is nothing on the horizon that would cause the market to drop dramatically.
A. There never is. But the crash of the housing market in the 1990s was foreseeable. Jim Pesando and I at U of T both gave papers in the late 80s at an Ontario government conference and nobody came to our sessions. We both said the housing market was going to go down. There was overbuilding just as today. The base on the rates was higher but the conditions weren't all that different. Everybody thought we were wrong because [the market] kept going up for another couple of years. Then it hit. And so I can't tell you when but it's going to correct because it's not sustainable.
{ 枫下论坛 www.rolia.net/forum }
Q. Will it crash or will it just ease off?
A. That nobody can say. What you can say with some confidence is that it is highly unlikely over the next couple of years real house prices will go up and they will probably be much lower. Interest rates rise and there is a significant portion of the condo market that is being purchased by investors. In a rising interest-rate environment, when their mortgages come up for renewal, they're faced with the difficulty of being able to carry, especially since rents are stable or falling.
We just have to look at Toronto and what happened from 1989 through to about 1995.
Q. Do you see that happening again?
＜ 相约加拿大 ROLIA.NET ＞
A. It depends. I can give you all kinds of scenarios that would bring that about and all kinds that wouldn't. Is it likely there will be a crash? I don't think so. Is it likely [prices] will decline somewhat? I think so. Is it likely they will fall in real terms? Yes, very, very likely. If prices fall in nominal terms, how much will it be? It really depends on how much overbuilding we get, how long that overbuilding persists -- and I think we're already overbuilding -- and what the monetary response will be. Interest rates may go up, but not very much because I see weaknesses in the U.S. economy and the dollar being strong and energy prices going up. It may postpone the adjustment or the correction. The problem is the more you postpone it, the bigger the adjustment will be.
