保守党不可能Majority

[Trusted]

http://www.electionprediction.org/2005_fed/

Liberal Party
Party lib轵al 79
Conservatives
Conservateurs 102
N.D.P.
N.P.D. 18
Bloc Qu殁殂ois 53
Too Close 56

http://www.electionprediction.org/2004_fed/
268 38 87.58% 306

So, let's say within the two close, we give 35 to C, then add 12% error to the original 102, so we get 102+35+12=149, still 5 seats short of 154. In this election 154 is the # not 155. With 154, they can lead as a Majority, because there are always 1 or 2 independent swing here and there.

The fact is within the 56 too close, there will be more to L, because right now, Canada is all blue, but heart is all red, the last minute voters are more likely to go with heart -- with C majory in sight, many will vote L to prevent a C majory..

 

[DanceWithWolf]

What you are saying is what I thought.
The best choice for us is a minority government that is managed by C.P. and NDP.

 

[Trusted]

最初由 DanceWithWolf 发布
What you are saying is what I thought.
The best choice for us is a minority government that is managed by C.P. and NDP.

NDP will never sleep with C.
Most likely C and Q will be partners.

 

[chieftain]

最初由 DanceWithWolf 发布
What you are saying is what I thought.
The best choice for us is a minority government that is managed by C.P. and NDP.

(+1) + (-1) = 0 ?

 

[Michel]

If they have the guts, the NDP, the Liberals and the Bloc can form a coalition government and shut the Conservatives out.

最初由 chieftain 发布


(+1) + (-1) = 0 ?

 

[chieftain]

最初由 Michel 发布
If they have the guts, the NDP, the Liberals and the Bloc can form a coalition government and shut the Conservatives out.

Conservative，Liberal，NDP -- Bloc

Bloc，NDP, Liberal -- Conservative

Bloc，Conservative，NDP -- Liberal

Bloc，Conservative，Liberal -- NDP