[转贴] 中国3G标准：欧盟，你小子也有今天？！
- 主题发起人 bj130
- 开始时间
好糟糕的3G网络, 消息来源于cnet的www.news.com.
The new 3G networks are designed to deliver peak speeds of between 115kbps and 144kbps, something far above what AOL(the 56kbps experience of Web providers like America Online) could ever offer. But instead of being twice as fast, under the best of circumstances the networks can barely match the speed of a typical America Online surfing session, according to figures provided by carriers. During the equivalent of a telephone network's rush hour--the sort of traffic load a 3G subscriber is likely to face--some Web pages arrive at less than half the speed of a landline dial-up connection.
"We tried real hard not to hype that peak number," of 144kbps, said Keith Nowak, a representative for handset maker Nokia. "But some other parties might have been more likely to hype it. In the long term, it's better to use the more realistic speeds."
For now, any disappointment over a network's performance will affect only the earliest users. But the situation doesn't bode well for an industry hoping to recoup the cost of building these new networks by selling downloadable games or business applications needing speed to succeed. And the success or failure of these new services could also affect other companies, including Microsoft, which is hoping to scrape together increased revenue by offering more mobile services.
One analyst believes the actual performance of the networks raises the question of why they were built at all.
"You build this big network, and all you can offer is a 20kbps download?" said IDC analyst Keith Waryas, referring to the low end of a typical Web session on new networks from AT&T Wireless, Cingular Wireless and T-Mobile. "That's not much of an improvement over what the carriers already had."
Jim Gerace, a Verizon Wireless representative, said the carrier's been saying all along that it's more likely that a subscriber to its Express Network, which peaks at 144kbps, will have Web sessions between 40kbps and 60kbps on average.
"Some will experience even better than that," Gerace said. "But 40 to 60 is the number we're sticking with."
AT&T Wireless, the nation's third-largest carrier, says subscribers to its new mMode service can expect on crowded days to download pages at 20kbps to 30kbps. The speeds drop to between 10kbps and 20kbps if someone's trying to do the wireless equivalent of a marathon: download video using a heavily trafficked network, according to figures provided by AT&T Wireless.
mMode will eventually replace the carrier's PocketNet wireless Web service, an 8-year-old effort that uses AT&T Wireless' Cellular Digital Packet Data network. CDPD operates at 19.2kbps and has an average user experience of between 5kbps and 9kbps. mMode uses the more advanced General Packet Radio Service cell phone standard.
"Streaming media wouldn't even work at all over CDPD," said AT&T Wireless Chief Technology Officer Rod Nelson.
AT&T Wireless also became the first GPRS carrier in the United States to begin testing a network that uses equipment the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers considers capable of delivering about 2.4mbps downloads.
The tests are taking place in Dallas, where phones are downloading files at close to 400kbps. The company is deliberately choosing to test the equipment at a data rate that's far below the network maximum, Nelson said.
"This is a test network," Nelson said. "You shouldn't assume anything."
In an e-mail, a T-Mobile representative said the average user experience on its GPRS network is about 40kbps. T-Mobile launched its nationwide GPRS service in late 2001.
Sprint PCS's new telephone network uses the same technology as that of Verizon Wireless, and also peaks at 144kbps. The carrier describes an average user's experience at between 40kbps and 60kbps. A Sprint PCS representative didn't immediately respond to a call seeking comment.
另外 U.K. wireless carrier suspends 3G plans
Graham Howe, chief operating officer of Orange, said the company will postpone the launch of its so-called 3G, or third-generation, service in Britain until sometime in 2003 in an effort to cut costs. The carrier has also suspended plans to launch the service in Sweden and is delaying offering 3G services elsewhere across Europe, Howe said.
As part of the announcement, Orange said it plans to lay off up to 2,000 employees, or 6.7 percent of its work force. The job eliminations, along with the 3G delays, will boost the company's financial performance, Orange said.
Carriers across the globe are suffering declining revenue; increased competition has forced the companies to drop the price of cellular calls to levels that aren't as profitable. As a result, carriers have been building better telephone networks in a push to offer new features such as Web surfing, game downloads and the ability for customers to work behind a corporate computer network's firewall.
European cell phone providers once were considered ahead of their U.S. colleagues in the race to install faster and better wireless networks. But in the past year, European wireless carriers like Orange have delayed or scrapped their plans. Meanwhile, in the United States, next-generation networks from Sprint PCS and Verizon Wireless are already in operation. "The U.S. is taking the lead," said Keith Waryas, a wireless analyst at IDC.
Orange's primary suppliers for its telephone network equipment--Nokia, Ericsson and Alcatel--will likely suffer as a result of the delays in launching Orange's network outside the United Kingdom, Howe said during a conference call.
Alcatel supplies a relatively small amount of the wireless network gear for Orange, according to an Alcatel representative, but the telecom equipment supplier will likely still be affected. Orange's parent company, France Telecom, is fighting to cut down approximately $70 billion in debt, and Alcatel is one of France Telecom's major suppliers of landline telephone equipment.
An Ericsson representative said Orange's move was expected, and any impact from the delays has already been factored into Ericsson's financial plans. "From our standpoint, we think the effect will be minimal," the representative said.
A representative for Nokia had no comment on the effects of Orange's 3G delays. Nokia is considered to be a major supplier for Orange and has seen its equipment sales suffer as carriers across Europe delay 3G launches.
Orange's delays are the second bit of bad news for the Finnish phone maker. On Tuesday, Nokia told investors that it expects the market for mobile network gear to drop 10 percent next year.
The new 3G networks are designed to deliver peak speeds of between 115kbps and 144kbps, something far above what AOL(the 56kbps experience of Web providers like America Online) could ever offer. But instead of being twice as fast, under the best of circumstances the networks can barely match the speed of a typical America Online surfing session, according to figures provided by carriers. During the equivalent of a telephone network's rush hour--the sort of traffic load a 3G subscriber is likely to face--some Web pages arrive at less than half the speed of a landline dial-up connection.
"We tried real hard not to hype that peak number," of 144kbps, said Keith Nowak, a representative for handset maker Nokia. "But some other parties might have been more likely to hype it. In the long term, it's better to use the more realistic speeds."
For now, any disappointment over a network's performance will affect only the earliest users. But the situation doesn't bode well for an industry hoping to recoup the cost of building these new networks by selling downloadable games or business applications needing speed to succeed. And the success or failure of these new services could also affect other companies, including Microsoft, which is hoping to scrape together increased revenue by offering more mobile services.
One analyst believes the actual performance of the networks raises the question of why they were built at all.
"You build this big network, and all you can offer is a 20kbps download?" said IDC analyst Keith Waryas, referring to the low end of a typical Web session on new networks from AT&T Wireless, Cingular Wireless and T-Mobile. "That's not much of an improvement over what the carriers already had."
Jim Gerace, a Verizon Wireless representative, said the carrier's been saying all along that it's more likely that a subscriber to its Express Network, which peaks at 144kbps, will have Web sessions between 40kbps and 60kbps on average.
"Some will experience even better than that," Gerace said. "But 40 to 60 is the number we're sticking with."
AT&T Wireless, the nation's third-largest carrier, says subscribers to its new mMode service can expect on crowded days to download pages at 20kbps to 30kbps. The speeds drop to between 10kbps and 20kbps if someone's trying to do the wireless equivalent of a marathon: download video using a heavily trafficked network, according to figures provided by AT&T Wireless.
mMode will eventually replace the carrier's PocketNet wireless Web service, an 8-year-old effort that uses AT&T Wireless' Cellular Digital Packet Data network. CDPD operates at 19.2kbps and has an average user experience of between 5kbps and 9kbps. mMode uses the more advanced General Packet Radio Service cell phone standard.
"Streaming media wouldn't even work at all over CDPD," said AT&T Wireless Chief Technology Officer Rod Nelson.
AT&T Wireless also became the first GPRS carrier in the United States to begin testing a network that uses equipment the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers considers capable of delivering about 2.4mbps downloads.
The tests are taking place in Dallas, where phones are downloading files at close to 400kbps. The company is deliberately choosing to test the equipment at a data rate that's far below the network maximum, Nelson said.
"This is a test network," Nelson said. "You shouldn't assume anything."
In an e-mail, a T-Mobile representative said the average user experience on its GPRS network is about 40kbps. T-Mobile launched its nationwide GPRS service in late 2001.
Sprint PCS's new telephone network uses the same technology as that of Verizon Wireless, and also peaks at 144kbps. The carrier describes an average user's experience at between 40kbps and 60kbps. A Sprint PCS representative didn't immediately respond to a call seeking comment.
另外 U.K. wireless carrier suspends 3G plans
Graham Howe, chief operating officer of Orange, said the company will postpone the launch of its so-called 3G, or third-generation, service in Britain until sometime in 2003 in an effort to cut costs. The carrier has also suspended plans to launch the service in Sweden and is delaying offering 3G services elsewhere across Europe, Howe said.
As part of the announcement, Orange said it plans to lay off up to 2,000 employees, or 6.7 percent of its work force. The job eliminations, along with the 3G delays, will boost the company's financial performance, Orange said.
Carriers across the globe are suffering declining revenue; increased competition has forced the companies to drop the price of cellular calls to levels that aren't as profitable. As a result, carriers have been building better telephone networks in a push to offer new features such as Web surfing, game downloads and the ability for customers to work behind a corporate computer network's firewall.
European cell phone providers once were considered ahead of their U.S. colleagues in the race to install faster and better wireless networks. But in the past year, European wireless carriers like Orange have delayed or scrapped their plans. Meanwhile, in the United States, next-generation networks from Sprint PCS and Verizon Wireless are already in operation. "The U.S. is taking the lead," said Keith Waryas, a wireless analyst at IDC.
Orange's primary suppliers for its telephone network equipment--Nokia, Ericsson and Alcatel--will likely suffer as a result of the delays in launching Orange's network outside the United Kingdom, Howe said during a conference call.
Alcatel supplies a relatively small amount of the wireless network gear for Orange, according to an Alcatel representative, but the telecom equipment supplier will likely still be affected. Orange's parent company, France Telecom, is fighting to cut down approximately $70 billion in debt, and Alcatel is one of France Telecom's major suppliers of landline telephone equipment.
An Ericsson representative said Orange's move was expected, and any impact from the delays has already been factored into Ericsson's financial plans. "From our standpoint, we think the effect will be minimal," the representative said.
A representative for Nokia had no comment on the effects of Orange's 3G delays. Nokia is considered to be a major supplier for Orange and has seen its equipment sales suffer as carriers across Europe delay 3G launches.
Orange's delays are the second bit of bad news for the Finnish phone maker. On Tuesday, Nokia told investors that it expects the market for mobile network gear to drop 10 percent next year.
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[转贴]大唐承受标准之重
2002年10月23日，信息产业部正式向各省（市）无线电管理局及运营商下发3G频率规划文件，大唐股票随即应声而涨。原因很简单，但是的确出人意料：大唐主导的TD-SCDMA标准得到了155M的带宽，其中55M处于国际电联定义的核心频段中，而欧洲的WCDMA标准和美日韩的CDMA2000标准只分别得到了60M的对称频段。
----这是国家首次对一直以来由大唐辛苦支撑的3G标准表示明确支持的实质性举措。业界一致认为，这是一个风向信号。刚从美国总部来华的高通CDMA技术集团高级副总裁Johan E .Lodenius也认为，“大唐取得了进展。”
----10月30日，各大运营商和通信制造商参加了在人民大会堂举行的TD―SCDMA产业联盟成立大会。大唐、南方高科、华立、华为、中兴等8家企业作出承诺：TD―SCDMA技术专利在联盟内部许可使用，联盟各方将对其注入必要的资源，保证TD―SCDMA标准及产品的研发、生产、制造，以期形成多厂家供货的产业链。
----这次大会的热烈程度同样出乎意料。出席大会的国家计委副主任张国宝嫌事先准备的讲稿不足以表达自己的心声，于是即兴发言：“我们的DVD虽然现在的产量是世界第一，但是我们要给知识产权所有方交纳的专利费也是世界第一。我们的联通引进了CDMA，虽然我们参与了基站建设和手机制造，但是因为所有的知识产权都是别人的，我们的企业同样要支付巨额的专利使用费。关于3G的标准可能在以后还会存在长期的争论，但是作为中国人，我们坚定地希望、也相信自己的标准能被世界所接受。”张国宝的一席话，激起了全场无比热烈的掌声，将大会提前推向了高潮。有关部委在公开场合如此旗帜鲜明的表态显得非常罕见。
----事实上，业内人士一直认为，有关部门应该给予大唐更多更实质性的支持；有激烈意见甚至批评这种“不作为”会“既糟蹋了TD-SCDMA，也糟蹋了大唐。”因为从GSM和CDMA的成功，可以清楚地看出，欧洲政府和美国政府曾经在两大标准的发展进程上给予了从政策保护到经济支持甚至政府公关等重大支持。
----CDMA的成功是个有力的佐证：美国政府在其中扮演了重要角色。在“进入市场晚，且是单厂商供货”的不利处境下，首先，美国政府保证了本土市场的应用。如果一项标准在本国都得不到应用，就更别指望在其他国家被采用，这是基本常识。而当时美国是世界上最大的移动通信市场。为了保证本国市场，美国通信委员会（简称FCC）首先批准认可了CDMAIS―95标准，随后划分了该标准所需的电磁频段，而迟迟没有规划GSM所需的频段，实质上这就推迟了GSM在美国的实施。第二步，美国政府“鼓励”美国的设备制造商和进入北美市场的外国供应商支持CDMA技术。为了保住在美国――这个最大市场上的生意，朗讯、爱立信、北电、三星、索尼等不得不开始积极着手基于CDMA技术的系统设备和手机的生产。最后一步，美国政府动用所有经济和政治影响力，来推动南美洲和亚太地区也使用CDMA技术；韩国、日本、中国、美国由此成为CDMA的四大市场。
----反观TD―SCDMA，该标准一直由大唐和西门子、尤其是前者在唱独角戏。而标准是国家利益的体现，其代价和利益的沉重都决非某个企业能一手包揽的。去年以来，中国通信设备制造商也随同全球气候转变而进入寒冬，大唐本身的销售收入和其他企业一样急剧下滑。已经投入TD―SCDMA的数亿元资金，主要来自于企业多年的自我积累、国家有限的项目经费和银行举债。有限的融资渠道长期来说势必难以为继。所以，大唐集团总裁周寰在最悲观时曾经伤感地表示：如果大唐一直得不到明确支持，恐怕撑不到明年了。
----目前，虽然国家给了大唐频率规划的保证，也只是授予了准入权。中兴等国内制造商私下里对此诚恳表示：虽然加入了联盟，关键还要看市场，主要是运营商是否采用。作为中国企业，当然愿意支持国家标准，但是TD-SCDMA需要大量的研发经费并承担风险，国家必须给予进一步的表示和政策，例如经费上的支持，并明确有市场的可能性，消除大家的疑虑，降低巨额投入的风险。中国移动有关人士在接受采访时表示，TD―SCDMA应该会有一定的市场，即使不能成为主要标准，至少可以并行存在。
----但目前大唐面临的问题依然没有减少：第一，必须争取政府进一步的明确表态，以增强上下游供应商和设备制造商的信心；第二，尽快拿出可商用的芯片和设备，目前据说大唐和飞利浦成立的联合研发中心将于明年六七月份推出，另外由大唐、普天、德州仪器、诺基亚、LG等合资组建的上海凯明公司也将在2003年底推出芯片，以提供芯片的多厂家供货市场；第三，和高通谈判TD―SCDMA中是否涉及高通专利的问题。对此，高通坚称TD―SCDMA肯定绕不开高通的CDMA专利；最后，即便TD―SCDMA成功了，大唐是否有力量像高通那样强力执行自己享有的专利并成功收取专利使用费，还是未知数。不排除一种可能：TD―SCDMA活了，大唐却被拖跨了。
----大唐能否承受国家标准之重？
2002年10月23日，信息产业部正式向各省（市）无线电管理局及运营商下发3G频率规划文件，大唐股票随即应声而涨。原因很简单，但是的确出人意料：大唐主导的TD-SCDMA标准得到了155M的带宽，其中55M处于国际电联定义的核心频段中，而欧洲的WCDMA标准和美日韩的CDMA2000标准只分别得到了60M的对称频段。
----这是国家首次对一直以来由大唐辛苦支撑的3G标准表示明确支持的实质性举措。业界一致认为，这是一个风向信号。刚从美国总部来华的高通CDMA技术集团高级副总裁Johan E .Lodenius也认为，“大唐取得了进展。”
----10月30日，各大运营商和通信制造商参加了在人民大会堂举行的TD―SCDMA产业联盟成立大会。大唐、南方高科、华立、华为、中兴等8家企业作出承诺：TD―SCDMA技术专利在联盟内部许可使用，联盟各方将对其注入必要的资源，保证TD―SCDMA标准及产品的研发、生产、制造，以期形成多厂家供货的产业链。
----这次大会的热烈程度同样出乎意料。出席大会的国家计委副主任张国宝嫌事先准备的讲稿不足以表达自己的心声，于是即兴发言：“我们的DVD虽然现在的产量是世界第一，但是我们要给知识产权所有方交纳的专利费也是世界第一。我们的联通引进了CDMA，虽然我们参与了基站建设和手机制造，但是因为所有的知识产权都是别人的，我们的企业同样要支付巨额的专利使用费。关于3G的标准可能在以后还会存在长期的争论，但是作为中国人，我们坚定地希望、也相信自己的标准能被世界所接受。”张国宝的一席话，激起了全场无比热烈的掌声，将大会提前推向了高潮。有关部委在公开场合如此旗帜鲜明的表态显得非常罕见。
----事实上，业内人士一直认为，有关部门应该给予大唐更多更实质性的支持；有激烈意见甚至批评这种“不作为”会“既糟蹋了TD-SCDMA，也糟蹋了大唐。”因为从GSM和CDMA的成功，可以清楚地看出，欧洲政府和美国政府曾经在两大标准的发展进程上给予了从政策保护到经济支持甚至政府公关等重大支持。
----CDMA的成功是个有力的佐证：美国政府在其中扮演了重要角色。在“进入市场晚，且是单厂商供货”的不利处境下，首先，美国政府保证了本土市场的应用。如果一项标准在本国都得不到应用，就更别指望在其他国家被采用，这是基本常识。而当时美国是世界上最大的移动通信市场。为了保证本国市场，美国通信委员会（简称FCC）首先批准认可了CDMAIS―95标准，随后划分了该标准所需的电磁频段，而迟迟没有规划GSM所需的频段，实质上这就推迟了GSM在美国的实施。第二步，美国政府“鼓励”美国的设备制造商和进入北美市场的外国供应商支持CDMA技术。为了保住在美国――这个最大市场上的生意，朗讯、爱立信、北电、三星、索尼等不得不开始积极着手基于CDMA技术的系统设备和手机的生产。最后一步，美国政府动用所有经济和政治影响力，来推动南美洲和亚太地区也使用CDMA技术；韩国、日本、中国、美国由此成为CDMA的四大市场。
----反观TD―SCDMA，该标准一直由大唐和西门子、尤其是前者在唱独角戏。而标准是国家利益的体现，其代价和利益的沉重都决非某个企业能一手包揽的。去年以来，中国通信设备制造商也随同全球气候转变而进入寒冬，大唐本身的销售收入和其他企业一样急剧下滑。已经投入TD―SCDMA的数亿元资金，主要来自于企业多年的自我积累、国家有限的项目经费和银行举债。有限的融资渠道长期来说势必难以为继。所以，大唐集团总裁周寰在最悲观时曾经伤感地表示：如果大唐一直得不到明确支持，恐怕撑不到明年了。
----目前，虽然国家给了大唐频率规划的保证，也只是授予了准入权。中兴等国内制造商私下里对此诚恳表示：虽然加入了联盟，关键还要看市场，主要是运营商是否采用。作为中国企业，当然愿意支持国家标准，但是TD-SCDMA需要大量的研发经费并承担风险，国家必须给予进一步的表示和政策，例如经费上的支持，并明确有市场的可能性，消除大家的疑虑，降低巨额投入的风险。中国移动有关人士在接受采访时表示，TD―SCDMA应该会有一定的市场，即使不能成为主要标准，至少可以并行存在。
----但目前大唐面临的问题依然没有减少：第一，必须争取政府进一步的明确表态，以增强上下游供应商和设备制造商的信心；第二，尽快拿出可商用的芯片和设备，目前据说大唐和飞利浦成立的联合研发中心将于明年六七月份推出，另外由大唐、普天、德州仪器、诺基亚、LG等合资组建的上海凯明公司也将在2003年底推出芯片，以提供芯片的多厂家供货市场；第三，和高通谈判TD―SCDMA中是否涉及高通专利的问题。对此，高通坚称TD―SCDMA肯定绕不开高通的CDMA专利；最后，即便TD―SCDMA成功了，大唐是否有力量像高通那样强力执行自己享有的专利并成功收取专利使用费，还是未知数。不排除一种可能：TD―SCDMA活了，大唐却被拖跨了。
----大唐能否承受国家标准之重？
我也了解不很多. 你可在 http://www.tdscdma-forum.org 得到更多信息.
